• Title/Summary/Keyword: 로그 회귀분석

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Analyses on Related Factors with Fire Damage in Korea (한국에서의 화재 피해 관련요인 분석)

  • Chang, Eunmi;Kang, Byungki;Park, Kyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.355-373
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    • 2015
  • In this study the factors of fire damage are analyzed through previous research reviews. Local environmental factors as well as those factors attributed to fire damage (number of fire events, number of injured, number of death, economic loss) were selected to compose mutual relationship model. In order to verify this relationship model, official statistics concerning fire damage were collected from 228 local governments and compared with results from previous research. As a result of this comparison four dependent variables and 22 independent variables that affect fire damage were analyzed. Independent variables are divided into human vulnerability factors, physical vulnerability factors, economic vulnerability factors, mitigating factors and local characteristics. To analyze a relationship between selected dependent variables and independent variables, we applied a semi-logarithm model and performed regression analysis. Among the 22 independent variables, the number of the weak to disaster, social welfare service workers, workers in manufacturing industry, and the number of workers in restaurants and bars per 10,000 people show the significant correlation with the number of fire incidence. The number of death from fire is significantly related to two variables which are the number of social welfare service workers per 10,000 and the ratio of commercial area. Damage cost is significantly dependent on the property taxes per 10,000 people. These factors were included in the research model as vulnerability factors (human, physical, economic) and mitigating factors and local characteristics, and the validity of research model was verified. The result could contribute to fire-fighting resource allocation in Korea or they can be utilized in establishing fire prevention policy, which will enhance the national level of fire safety.

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Software Cost Estimation Model Based on Use Case Points by using Regression Model (회귀분석을 이용한 UCP 기반 소프트웨어 개발 노력 추정 모델)

  • Park, Ju-Seok;Yang, Hea-Sool
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2009
  • Recently, there has been continued research on UCP from the development effort estimation method to a software development project applying object oriented development methodology. Current research proposes a linear model estimating the developmenteffort by multiplying a constant to AUCP which applies technical and environmental factors. However, the fact that a non-linear regression model is more appropriate as the software size increases, the development period increases exponentially. In addition, in the UCP calculation process the occurrence of FP errors due to the application of TCF and EF, it is unrealistic to estimate the size with AUCP. This paper presents the issue of current research based on UCP without considering problems of the research, for example, TCF and EF and expresses the models (linear, logarithmic, polynomial, power and exponential type) estimating the development effort directly from UUCP. Consequently, the exponential model within non-linear models exhibit more accurate results than the current linear model. Therefore, after calculating the UUCP of the developing software system, using the proposed model to estimate the development effort, it is possible to estimate the direct cost required in development.

Automatic Generation of DB Images for Testing Enterprise Systems (전사적 응용시스템 테스트를 위한 DB이미지 생성에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Oh-Seung;Hong, Sa-Neung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.37-58
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    • 2011
  • In general, testing DB applications is much more difficult than testing other types of software. The fact that the DB states as much as the input data influence and determine the procedures and results of program testing is one of the decisive reasons for the difficulties. In order to create and maintain proper DB states for testing, it not only takes a lot of time and efforts, but also requires extensive IT expertise and business knowledge. Despite the difficulties, there are not enough research and tools for the needed help. This article reports the result of research on automatic creation and maintenance of DB states for testing DB applications. As its core, this investigation develops an automation tool which collects relevant information from a variety of sources such as log, schema, tables and messages, combines collected information intelligently, and creates pre- and post-Images of database tables proper for application tests. The proposed procedures and tool are expected to be greatly helpful for overcoming inefficiencies and difficulties in not just unit and integration tests but including regression tests. Practically, the tool and procedures proposed in this research allows developers to improve their productivity by reducing time and effort required for creating and maintaining appropriate DB sates, and enhances the quality of DB applications since they are conducive to a wider variety of test cases and support regression tests. Academically, this research deepens our understanding and introduces new approach to testing enterprise systems by analyzing patterns of SQL usages and defining a grammar to express and process the patterns.

Implementation Strategy for the Elderly Care Solution Based on Usage Log Analysis: Focusing on the Case of Hyodol Product (사용자 로그 분석에 기반한 노인 돌봄 솔루션 구축 전략: 효돌 제품의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.117-140
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    • 2019
  • As the aging phenomenon accelerates and various social problems related to the elderly of the vulnerable are raised, the need for effective elderly care solutions to protect the health and safety of the elderly generation is growing. Recently, more and more people are using Smart Toys equipped with ICT technology for care for elderly. In particular, log data collected through smart toys is highly valuable to be used as a quantitative and objective indicator in areas such as policy-making and service planning. However, research related to smart toys is limited, such as the development of smart toys and the validation of smart toy effectiveness. In other words, there is a dearth of research to derive insights based on log data collected through smart toys and to use them for decision making. This study will analyze log data collected from smart toy and derive effective insights to improve the quality of life for elderly users. Specifically, the user profiling-based analysis and elicitation of a change in quality of life mechanism based on behavior were performed. First, in the user profiling analysis, two important dimensions of classifying the type of elderly group from five factors of elderly user's living management were derived: 'Routine Activities' and 'Work-out Activities'. Based on the dimensions derived, a hierarchical cluster analysis and K-Means clustering were performed to classify the entire elderly user into three groups. Through a profiling analysis, the demographic characteristics of each group of elderlies and the behavior of using smart toy were identified. Second, stepwise regression was performed in eliciting the mechanism of change in quality of life. The effects of interaction, content usage, and indoor activity have been identified on the improvement of depression and lifestyle for the elderly. In addition, it identified the role of user performance evaluation and satisfaction with smart toy as a parameter that mediated the relationship between usage behavior and quality of life change. Specific mechanisms are as follows. First, the interaction between smart toy and elderly was found to have an effect of improving the depression by mediating attitudes to smart toy. The 'Satisfaction toward Smart Toy,' a variable that affects the improvement of the elderly's depression, changes how users evaluate smart toy performance. At this time, it has been identified that it is the interaction with smart toy that has a positive effect on smart toy These results can be interpreted as an elderly with a desire to meet emotional stability interact actively with smart toy, and a positive assessment of smart toy, greatly appreciating the effectiveness of smart toy. Second, the content usage has been confirmed to have a direct effect on improving lifestyle without going through other variables. Elderly who use a lot of the content provided by smart toy have improved their lifestyle. However, this effect has occurred regardless of the attitude the user has toward smart toy. Third, log data show that a high degree of indoor activity improves both the lifestyle and depression of the elderly. The more indoor activity, the better the lifestyle of the elderly, and these effects occur regardless of the user's attitude toward smart toy. In addition, elderly with a high degree of indoor activity are satisfied with smart toys, which cause improvement in the elderly's depression. However, it can be interpreted that elderly who prefer outdoor activities than indoor activities, or those who are less active due to health problems, are hard to satisfied with smart toys, and are not able to get the effects of improving depression. In summary, based on the activities of the elderly, three groups of elderly were identified and the important characteristics of each type were identified. In addition, this study sought to identify the mechanism by which the behavior of the elderly on smart toy affects the lives of the actual elderly, and to derive user needs and insights.

Bayesian Analysis of a Zero-inflated Poisson Regression Model: An Application to Korean Oral Hygienic Data (영과잉 포아송 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 추론: 구강위생 자료에의 적용)

  • Lim, Ah-Kyoung;Oh, Man-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.505-519
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    • 2006
  • We consider zero-inflated count data, which is discrete count data but has too many zeroes compared to the Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated data can be found in various areas. Despite its increasing importance in practice, appropriate statistical inference on zero-inflated data is limited. Classical inference based on a large number theory does not fit unless the sample size is very large. And regular Poisson model shows lack of St due to many zeroes. To handle the difficulties, a mixture of distributions are considered for the zero-inflated data. Specifically, a mixture of a point mass at zero and a Poisson distribution is employed for the data. In addition, when there exist meaningful covariates selected to the response variable, loglinear link is used between the mean of the response and the covariates in the Poisson distribution part. We propose a Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated Poisson regression model by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We applied the proposed method to a Korean oral hygienic data and compared the inference results with other models. We found that the proposed method is superior in that it gives small parameter estimation error and more accurate predictions.

Empirical Analyses on the Financial Profile of Korean Chaebols in Corporate Research & Development Intensity (국내 자본시장에서의 재벌 계열사들의 연구개발비 비중에 대한 재무적 실증분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.232-241
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    • 2019
  • This study examines one of the conventional and controversial issues in modern finance. Specifically, this study identifies financial determinants of corporate R&D intensity for firms belonging to Korean Chaebols. Empirical estimation procedures are applied to derive more robust results of each hypothesis test. Static panel data, Tobit regression and stepwise regression models are employed to obtain significant financial factors of R&D expenditures, while logit, probit and complementary log-log regression models are used to detect financial differences between Chaebol firms and their counterparts not classified as Chaebols. Study results found the level of R&D intensity in the prior fiscal year, market-value based leverage ratio and firm size empirically showed their significance to account for corporate R&D intensity in the first hypothesis test, whereas the majority of explanatory variables had important power on a relative basis. Assuming that the current circumstances in the domestic capital market may necessitate gradual changes of Korean Chaebols in terms of their socio-economic function, the results of this study are expected to contribute to identifying financial antecedents that can be beneficial to attain optimal level of corporate R&D expenditures for Chaebol firms on a virtuous cycle.

A Study on Developing Crash Prediction Model for Urban Intersections Considering Random Effects (임의효과를 고려한 도심지 교차로 교통사고모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Park, Min Ho;Woo, Yong Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2015
  • Previous studies have estimated crash prediction models with the fixed effect model which assumes the fixed value of coefficients without considering characteristics of each intersections. However the fixed effect model would estimate under estimation of the standard error resulted in over estimation of t-value. In order to overcome these shortcomings, the random effect model can be used with considering heterogeneity of AADT, geometric information and unobserved factors. In this study, data collections from 89 intersections in Daejeon and estimates of crash prediction models were conducted using the random and fixed effect negative binomial regression model for comparison and analysis of two models. As a result of model estimates, AADT, speed limits, number of lanes, exclusive right turn pockets and front traffic signal were found to be significant. For comparing statistical significance of two models, the random effect model could be better statistical significance with -1537.802 of log-likelihood at convergence comparing with -1691.327 for the fixed effect model. Also likelihood ration value was computed as 0.279 for the random effect model and 0.207 for the fixed effect model. This mean that the random effect model can be improved for statistical significance of models comparing with the fixed effect model.

Further Empirical Analysis on Corporate R&D Intensity for KOSDAQ Listed SMEs in the Era of the Post Global Economic Crisis (국제금융위기 이후의 코스닥 상장 중소기업들의 연구개발비에 대한 실증적 심층분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.248-258
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    • 2021
  • The study analyzed the financial determinants of corporate R&D intensity that require more attention from academics and practitioners in the Korean capital market. Domestic small and medium enterprises (SMEs) may face with developing substitutes by making more R&D investments in scale and scope, given the unprecedented economic conditions such as the limitation of importing core components and materials from other nation(s). KOSDAQ-listed SMEs were selected as sample data, whose R&D expenditures may be less than those of large firms during the post-global financial turmoil period (2010~2018). Static panel data model was applied, along with Tobit and stepwise regression models, for examining the validity of results. Logit, probit, and complementary log-log regressions were also employed for a relative analysis. R&D expenditures in the prior year, the interaction effect between the previous R&D intensity and high-tech sector, firm size, and growth rate were significant to determine R&D intensity. Moreover, a majority of explanatory variables were found to change between the years 2011 and 2018, while time-lagged effects between the R&D intensity and growth rate exist. Results of the study are expected to be used for future research to detect optimal levels of R&D expenditures for the value maximization of SMEs.

Development of Korean Peninsula VS30 Map Based on Proxy Using Linear Regression Analysis (일반선형회귀분석을 이용한 프락시 기반 한반도 VS30지도 개발)

  • Choi, Inhyeok;Yoo, Byeongho;Kwak, Dongyoup
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2022
  • The VS30 map is used as a key variable for site amplification in the ShakeMap, which predicts ground motion at any site. However, no VS30 map considering Korean geology and geomorphology has been developed yet. To develop a proxy-based VS30 map, we used 1,101 VS profiles obtained from a geophysical survey and collected proxy layers of geological and topographical information for the Korean Peninsula. Then, VS30 prediction models were developed using linear regression analysis for each geological age considering the distribution of VS30. As a result, models depending on geomorphology were suggested per each geologic group, including Quaternary, Fill, Ocean, Mesozoic group and Precambrian. Resolution of map is doubled from that of VS30 map by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Standard deviation of residual in natural log of proxy-based VS30 map is 0.233, whereas standard deviation of slope-based USGS VS30 map is 0.387. Therefore, the proxy-based VS30 map developed in this study is expected to have less uncertainty and to contribute to predicting more accurately the ground motion amplitude.

Development of Sequential Sampling Plan for Bacterial Leaf Blight of Garlic by Cluster Sampling (클러스터 조사에 의한 마늘 세균점무늬병의 축차표본조사법 개발)

  • Song, Jeong Heub;Yang, Cheol Joon;Yang, Young Taek;Shim, Hong Sik;Jwa, Chang Sook
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.268-272
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    • 2015
  • Bacterial leaf blight caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. porri is one of the major bacterial diseases of garlic (Allium sativum). In South Korea, the disease has only been observed in garlic-growing regions of Jeju island. The spatial distribution pattern of the disease was analyzed by binary power law, in which the natural logarithm of the observed variance is regressed on the natural logarithm of the binomial variance. The estimated slope (b=1.361) of the regression was greater than 1 which meant that the diseased plants were aggregated. The sequential sampling plans were developed for estimating the mean incidence rate ($p_m$) and classifying the mean incidence as being below or above the critical incidence rate ($p_t$). These results could be used on more efficient and higher precisive sampling for bacterial blight of garlic compared to fixed sample sized sampling.