• Title/Summary/Keyword: 득표율

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A Trial to Develop Forecasting Model for Turn-out Rates with the 2010 Korean Gubernatorial Election Data (후보자 득표율 예측 모형과 지표의 구성: 2010 광역단체장 선거를 중심으로)

  • Song, Keun-Won
    • Survey Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.31-63
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    • 2011
  • This study is to make an effective forecasting model for turn-out rates of the candidates with their visibilities, which are measured in their names on the media during the election period. I make a regressive model, with the data of 2010 gubernatorial election in Korea, where turn-out rate is dependent variable and each candidate's visibility, incumbency effect, local control party effect, corruption effect, strategy voting effect, restrain effect as a mid-term evaluation, and policy effect are independent variables. I got the model, T = -4.65 + 1.02V + 16.90 I + 16.78L - 9.12 R, where T is turn-out rate, V is candidate's visibility, I is incumbent effect, L is local control party effect, and R is restrain effect. This function can be used to predict turn-out rates of the candidates in the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Korea at a small outlay.

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The Relationship between General Programming TV's News Ratings and the Vote Shares of Conservative Parties (종합편성채널의 뉴스보도 시청률과 보수 정당의 선거득표율 간의 관계)

  • Lee, Seung Yeop;Lee, Sang Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.80-89
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    • 2017
  • Television viewing affects viewers' attitudes and opinions on their political issues. Since the beginning of General Programming TV services in 2011, they are criticized of their politically biased programming. In order to investigate the effect of General Programming TV on voters' behavior, we analyzed whether or not there is a change in the voting behavior of the conservative parties among the areas with high and low TV ratings of general programming TV. Based on the result of 18th presidential election in December 2012, we could not find any difference in voting behavior on the Saenuri party among the areas with high and low ratings of general programming TV channels. However, in the 6th provincial election in June 2014, while the voting shares of the Saenuri party were higher in the areas with high ratings of TV Chosun, Channel A, and JTBC than in those areas with low ratings.

Estimation of the Percent of the Vote by Adjustment of Voter Turnout in Election Polls (선거여론조사에서 투표율 반영을 통한 득표율 추정)

  • Kim, Jeonghoon;Han, Sang-Tae;Kang, Hyuncheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2873-2881
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    • 2018
  • It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

Election Regionalism in the 18th Korean General Election : focusing on election campaign course and Voter's Choice (18대 총선에서 나타난 선거지역주의 -선거운동 과정과 유권자의 선택을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jai-Han
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.315-333
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    • 2014
  • The study was carried out to analyze election regionalism and to find out the spatial pattern of party support drawn in the 18th general election. Strongly biased pattern found to be caused by party strategies and voting behaviour preferring for the local party. Each party employed the strategies such as tactical and nepotic nomination, regional development pledges, and local instigation of regionalism. In consciousness survey done by the National Election Commission, primarily people tend to choose the representative by his(her) party and secondly, they consider their carrier and occupation. They vote for the same party in the local district and proportional representation. While election regionalism strongly found in voting behaviour of each party's main strongholds based on spatial pattern of major party support, voters of Seoul and Chungbuk tend to vote for their interests due to regional development pledges such as 'Newtown' Development and 'Multifunctional Administrative City' construction.

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Estimating the Interim Rate of Votes Earned Based on the Exit Poll Results during the Coverage of Ballot Results by Broadcasters (선거 개표방송에서 출구조사 자료를 활용한 중간 득표율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yoon-Dong;Park, Jin-Woo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2011
  • During major elections, three terrestrial broadcasting stations in Korea have covered the progresses of election results by announcing the simple sum of ballot counts of all ballot counting stations. The current approach, however, does not properly reflect the actual ballot count differences by ballot counting location, leading to cause unnecessary but possible confusions. In addition, the current coverage approach restricts the broadcasters from using regional poll data gained through exit polls by letting them to use the significant information on a one-off purpose to announce the initial prediction of the poll results and to fully disregard the exit poll results during the ballot counting process. Based on the understanding, this paper is designed to suggest a Bayesian approach to consolidate the exit poll results with the progressive ballot counting results and announce them as such. The suggested consolidation approach is expected to mitigate or avoid the possible confusions that may arise in connection with the different ballot counting paces by ballot counting station.

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Appraisal and future direction of 5th Daejeon Metropolitan Council (민선 5기 대전광역시의회의 의정활동평가와 과제)

  • Choi, Ho-taek
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.451-452
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구에서는 대전광역시의회를 중심으로 제5기 지방의정을 평가하고 문제점을 규명하여 발전방안을 모색하고자 한다. 대전광역시의회 의원들에 의정활동에 대한 객관적 평가 자료로는 주민대표기능(득표율), 의결기능(회기운영, 안건처리), 입법기능(조례안제정, 개정 및 폐지), 견제 감시기능(행정감사, 시정질의, 예산결산안), 기타의정기능(연수, 연찬, 건의 결의문, 주민참여)등의 내용을 수집하여 분석하였다.

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Interview - "For everyone in the fence of architecture to coexist⋯" Setting a new milestone in the architectural world (인터뷰 - "건축의 울타리에 있는 모든 이들이 상생할 수 있도록⋯" 건축계 새로운 이정표 만드는데 최선)

  • Yuk, Hye-Min
    • Korean Architects
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    • s.622
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    • pp.26-29
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    • 2021
  • 지난 1월 15일, 석정훈 건축사(주.태건축설계 건축사사무소)가 60.04%의 득표율을 기록하며 대한건축사협회 제33대 회장으로 선출됐다. 협회 직선제 도입 3회 만에 탄생한 첫 연임 회장이다. 1월 19일 석정훈 대한건축사협회장을 직접 만나 연임의 의미와 더불어 추진 정책, 협회 운영방안에 관해 물어보는 시간을 가졌다.

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Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

특집 - 육계자조금 대의원 선거 현황 및 개표결과

  • Korea Chicken Council
    • Monthly Korean Chicken
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    • s.125
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    • pp.51-73
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    • 2005
  • 육계자조금 설치를 위한 대의원 선거가 지난 10월 24일부터 28일까지 5일간의 일정으로 치러졌다. 전국 76개 선거구 중 74개 선거구에서 치러진 이번 대의원 선거는 68개소에서 유효 선거가 이루어져 총 135명의 대의원을 선출했다. 유효득표미달 선거구(6개 선거구)가 발생했음에도 전체 농가 참여율은 58.7%(사육수수는 63.7%)를 기록했다. 본고에서는 육계자조금 대의원 선거 현황 및 개표결과에 대해 알아본다.

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Terminological Misuses and Institutional Coherence in Electoral Systems (선거제도의 개념 오용과 정합성: 비례대표성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chae-Han
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.5-31
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    • 2019
  • In the process of changing the Korean electoral system, various terms such as representation, majority, minority, plurality, and proportionality are not used correctly, making normative judgment on its desirable electoral system difficult. This paper clarifies the concepts and terminology related to the electoral system in order to enable proper normative discussion. First, the misuse of the names of the electoral system is reviewed. This includes the majority representative system versus the minority representative system, the single-member constituency versus the multi-member constituency, the absolute majority system versus the relative majority system, and the majority representative system versus the proportional representative system. Next, the principles of representation, proportionality, democracy, direct ballot, and equal ballot are discussed to evaluate the decisions made by the Constitutional Court of Korea. In the current electoral system of the National Assembly, the equivalence between its constituency member and its proportional representation member is very low in terms of proportionality between votes received and seats allotted. Finally, the coherence between proportional representation and other political institutions is examined. Strengthening the proportionality of parliamentary elections alone does not necessarily increase the proportionality of the entire power structure.