• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동태 모델

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Estimation of Long-term Effects of Harvest Interval and Intensity, and Post-harvest Residue Management on the Soil Carbon Stock of Pinus densiflora Stands using KFSC Model (한국형 산림토양탄소모델(KFSC)을 이용한 수확 주기 및 강도와 수확 후 잔재물 처리방법에 따른 소나무림 토양탄소 저장량의 장기 변화 추정 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Yi, Koong;Lee, Jongyeol;Lee, Kyeong-Hak;Yi, Myong-Jong;Kim, Choonsig;Park, Gwan-Soo;Kim, Raehyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.1
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    • pp.82-89
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    • 2013
  • Harvest is one of the major disturbances affecting the soil carbon (C) dynamics in forests. However, researches on the long-term impact of periodic harvest on the soil C dynamics are limited since they requires rigorous control of various factors. Therefore, we adopted a modeling approach to determine the long-term impacts of harvest interval, harvest intensity and post-harvest residue management on soil C dynamics by using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon model (KFSC model). The simulation was conducted on Pinus densiflora S. et Z. stands in central Korea, and twelve harvest scenarios were tested by altering harvest intervals (50, 80, and 100-year interval), intensities (partial-cut harvest: 30% and clear-cut harvest: 100% of stand volume), and the residue managements after harvest (collection: 0% and retention: 100% of aboveground residue). We simulated the soil carbon stock for 400 years for each scenario. As a result, the soil C stocks in depth of 30 cm after 400 years range from 50.3 to 55.8 Mg C $ha^{-1}$, corresponding to 98.1 to 108.9% of the C stock at present. The soil C stock under the scenarios with residue retention was 2.5-11.0% higher than that under scenarios with residue collection. However, there was no significant impact of harvest interval and intensity on the soil C stock. The soil C dynamics depended on the dead organic matter dynamics derived from the amount of dead organic matter and growth pattern after harvest.

Forecasting the Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific by Neural Network Model (신경망 모델을 이용한 적도 태평양 표층 수온 예측)

  • Chang You-Soon;Lee Da-Un;Seo Jang-Won;Youn Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.268-275
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    • 2005
  • One of the nonlinear statistical modelling, neural network method was applied to predict the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino regions, which represent El Nino indices. The data used as inputs in the training step of neural network model were the first seven empirical orthogonal functions in the tropical Pacific $(120^{\circ}\;E,\;20^{\circ}\;S-20^{\circ}\;N)$ obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The period of 1951 to 1993 was adopted for the training of neural network model, and the period 1994 to 2003 for the forecasting validation. Forecasting results suggested that neural network models were resonable for SSTA forecasting until 9-month lead time. They also predicted greatly the development and decay of strong E1 Nino occurred in 1997-1998 years. Especially, Nino3 region appeared to be the best forecast region, while the forecast skills rapidly decreased since 9-month lead time. However, in the Nino1+2 region where they are relatively low by the influence of local effects, they did not decrease even after 9-month lead time.

The Analysis of Forest Successional Trend by Species Replacement Model in the Natural Forest (천연림의 수종 대치 작용 모델에 의한 산림천이 경향 분석)

  • 김지홍
    • Journal of Korea Foresty Energy
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2003
  • The successional status and potential natural vegetation were examined in the natural deciduous forest in Mt. Chombong area. The examination was based on the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings for the dominant canopy trees within 106 20mx20m square sample plots. The transition matrix model, which was modified from mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional status of the study forest. The model suggests that study forest is still seral, and it is considered to be more than 500 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of species composition. The simulations predict a remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of the present dominant Quercus mongolica and Kalopanax pictus from current 42.6% and 8.1% to less than 13.3% and 0.5%, respectively, at the steady state. On the contrary, the proportions of Abies holophylla, Acer mono, Fraxinus mandshurica, Tilia amurensis, and Acer pseudo-sieboldianum will increase at the steady state. The change of predicted composition ratio was generally coincide with the result of tolerance index to be compared with the study model. The hypothesis and sensitivity of the model were also discussed to evaluate the applicability to the real situation. The overall results indicated that the present dynamics of the forest must reflect the seral state due to previous disturbance mainly by human related interference.

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Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems: Research Status and Challenges in Korea (기후변화에 따른 산림생태계 영향: 우리나라 연구현황과 과제)

  • Lim Jong-Hwan;Shin Joon-Hwan;Lee Don-Koo;Suh Seung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2006
  • Recent global warming seems to be dramatic and has influenced forest ecosystems. Changes in phonology of biota, species distribution range shift and catastrophic climatic disasters due to recent global warming have been observed during the last century. Korean forests located mainly in the temperate zone also have been experienced climatic change impacts including shifting of leafing and flowering phonology, changes in natural disasters and forest productivity, However, little research has been conducted on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in Korea which is essential to assess the impact and extent of adaptation. Also there is a shortage in basic long-term data of forest ecosystem processes. Careful data collection and ecological process modeling should be focused on characteristic Korean forest ecosystems which are largely complex terrain that might have hindered research activities. An integrative ecosystem study which covers forest dynamics, biological diversity, water and carbon flux and cycles in a forest ecosystem and spatial and temporal dynamics modeling is introduced. Global warming effects on Korean forest ecosystems are reviewed. Forestry activity and the importance of forest ecosystems as a dynamic carbon reservoir are discussed. Forest management options and challenges for future research, impact assessment, and preparation of mitigating measures in Korea are proposed.

Infection kinetics and developmental biology of Cryptosporidiam muris (strain MCR) in Korean native kids and Corriedale lambs (재래산양 및 면양에 있어서 쥐와포자충 (MCR주)의 감염 동태)

  • Lee, Jae-Gu;Kim, Hyeon-Cheol;Eun, Gil-Su
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.171-182
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    • 1998
  • A total of nine Korean native kids and two Corriedale lambs, 1-20 days old, were each inoculated per os with a single dose of 2 × 107 oocysts of Cwptospori,mum muris (strain MCR) originated from mice to elucidate the kinetics and developmental stages of the coccidium in small ruminants. Irrespective of host's age, the prepatent period for both animals ranged from 19 to 35 days (28.1 days, on the average) and the patent period 16-85 days (47.8 days), and the total oocyst outputs showed enormous differences. Infection with greater numbers of oocyst outputs was not ordinarily established by transmission experiments. Oocysts discharged from the kids retained their infectivity by the mouse titration method. The immunogenicity of the coccidium and oocyst reproduction were proven by challenge infection and administration of prednisolone acetate. respectively. All the developmental stages of the coccidium in parasitophorous vacuoles were found by transmission electron microscopy in the pits of the gastric glands of a kid inoculated with oocysts and then necropsied on day 44 postinoculation. It indicated the full course of the host-parasite relationship in kids and lambs as well as mice.

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Analysis of Successional Trend by Transition Matrix Model in the Mixed Broadleaved-Abies Forest of Mt. Odae (추이행렬(推移行列) 모델에 의한 오대산(五臺山) 활엽수(闊葉樹)-젓나무속(屬) 혼효림(混淆林)의 천이(遷移) 경향(傾向) 분석(分析))

  • Kim, Ji Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.81 no.4
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    • pp.325-336
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    • 1992
  • The successional status and potential natural vegetation were examined in a mixed broadleaved-Abies forest located at Mt, Odae National Park. The examination was based on the subsequent process of generation replacement by understory saplings for the dominant canopy trees within 88 $5m{\times}50m$ belt transects. The transition matrix model, which was modified from mathematical theory of Markov chain, was employed to analyze the successional status of the study forest. The model suggests that the study forest is still seral, and it is considered to be more than 700 years away from the steady state or climax in terms of species composition. The simulations predict a remarkable decrease in the proportion of species composition of the present dominant Quercus mongolica and Tilia amurensi.s from current 28% and 13% to less than 3% and 5%, respectively, at the steady state. On the contrary, the proportions of Abies holophylla, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum, Carpinus cordata, and Pinus koraiensis will increase at the steady state. The ratio of mixture between deciduous and coniferous trees will be gradually changed from current 6.5 : 3.5 to 5.0 : 5.0 at equilibrium. Discussion for the problems of Quercus mongolica in successional status noted that the species behaved as a mid-successional dominant, not a climax species in the study forest. The hypothesis and sensitivity of the transition matrix model were also discussed to evaluate the applicability to the real situation. The overall results indicated that the present dynamics of the forest must reflect the seral state due to previous disturbance mainly by hyman related interference.

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A Case Study on Building a System Dynamics Model for Strategic Knowledge Management (전략적 지식경영을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 구축 사례 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Hyun;Yeon, Seung-Jun;Kim, Dong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Wook
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2005
  • IT companies make a lot of effort to share and utilize the experiences of their members and transform them into organizational knowledge as a competitive core. However they face a dilemma in that they have to spend time and financial resources to perform activities around knowledge management for the long-term gains, while carrying at field-work for making short-term profits. As an initial attempt to tackle this managerial problem, this paper tries to investigate the mechanism of knowledge management in a small IT company in Korea with a synthetic view-point using system dynamics simulation model. It depicts the dynamic behaviors of knowledge management and presents some findings of political leverage. Although this model has to be further replenished, the scheme for the dynamism of knowledge management and the findings presented in the paper could be useful for the decision makers, especially of knowledge-intensive organizations.

Effects of Temperature on the Development and Reproduction of Ostrinia scapulalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) (콩줄기명나방(Ostrinia scapulalis) (나비목: 포충나방과)의 발육과 산란에 미치는 온도의 영향)

  • Jeong Joon, Ahn;Eun Young, Kim;Bo Yoon, Seo;Jin Kyo, Jung
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.577-590
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    • 2022
  • Ostrinia scapulalis is one of important pests in leguminous crops, especially red bean. In order to understand the biological characteristics of the insect, we investigated the effects of temperature on development of each life stage, adult longevity and fecundity of O. scapulalis at eleven constant temperatures of 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, 34, and 36℃. Eggs and larvae successfully developed next life stage at most temperature subjected except 7, 10 and 13℃. The developmental period of egg, larva and pupa decreased as temperature increased. Lower and higher threshold temperature (TL and TH) were calculated by the Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois (LRF) and Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) models. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) from egg hatching to adult emergence of O. scapulalis were estimated by linear regression as 13.5℃ and 384.5DD, respectively. TL and TH from egg hatching to adult emergence using SSI model were 19.4℃ and 39.8℃. Thermal windows, i.e., the range in temperature between the minimum and maximum rate of development, of O. scapulalis was 20.4℃. Adults produced viable eggs at the temperature range between 16℃ and 34℃, and showed a maximum number, ca. 416 offsprings, at 25℃. Adult models including aging rate, age-specific survival rate, age-specific cumulative oviposition, and temperature-dependent fecundity were constructed, using the temperature-dependent adult traits. Temperature-dependent development models and adult oviposition models will be useful components to understand the population dynamics of O. scapulalis and will be expected using a basic data for establishing the strategy of integrated pest management in leguminous crops.

Pharmacokinetics of Carbapenem Antibiotics in Rats and Guinea pigs

  • Nam, Kweon-Ho;Chang, Woo-Ik;Park, Moon-Jung;Kim, Ji-Yeon;Park, Nam-Jun;Yu, Young-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Applied Pharmacology
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.228-228
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    • 1996
  • 1, 흰쥐에서 IPM 단독투여시보다 DHP-I 저해제인 CS와의 병용투여시 AUC가 4배 이상, t$_{1}$2/가 약 3배 증가하였으며 MEPM의 경우는 AUC가 5배 이상, t$_{1}$2/가 약 1.8배 증가하였다. 2. Guinea pig에서 IPM 단독투여시보다 CS와의 병용투여시 AUC가 약 2.5배, t$_{1}$2/가 약 1.4배 증가하였으며 MEPM의 경우는 AUC, t$_{1}$2/ 모두 거의 변함이 없었다. 3. 위의 결과 흰쥐에서 IPM과 MEPM에 대한 CS의 영향이 매우 큰 것으로 나타났으며 따라서 약물동력학적인 파라메타에도 커다란 변화를 주었다. 반대로 Guinea Pig에서는 CS의 병용투여로 IPM의 AUC에만 변동을 주었을 뿐 t$_{l}$ 2/에는 크게 영향을 미치지 않았고 MEPM의 체내동태에는 거의 영향을 미치지 않았다. 4. Guinea pig에서 전체 투여량에 대한 MEPM의 요중회수율은 66.58$\pm$3.44%이었고 IPM의 경우는 7.00$\pm$0.95%이었다. 그러나 DHP-I 저해제인 CS와의 병용투여시 IPM의 요중회수율이 57.77$\pm$11.46%로 증가하여 MEPM과 거의 비슷한 양상을 나타냈다. 이는 guinea pig에서 DHP-I에 의한 IPM의 대사가 CS에 의해 차단됨을 시사하는 것이라고 사료되며 guinea pig에 존재하는 DHP-I은 MEPM보다 IPM에 대해 더 높은 친화도를 갖는 것으로 사료된다. 5. Carbapenem계 항생제의 약물동력학적 스크리닝을 위한 소동물로는 흰쥐보다도 guinea pig가 적합한 것으로 생각되나 동물종차에 의한 약물동력학적 연구 및 DHP-I의 활성에 대한 연구가 더 면밀히 이루어져야 할 것으로 생각되며 BO-2727, panipenem, biapenem 등 다른 carbapenem 항생제에 대한 광범위한 약물동력학적 연구가 진행되어 새로운 carbapenem계 항생제 개발에 따른 인체내 거동을 예측할 수 있는 치적의 실험동물모델이 확립되어야 할 것이다.

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Forecasting a Gyeongju's Local Society Change Using Urban Dynamics Model (도시동태모델을 이용한 경주 지역사회변화 예측)

  • Lee, Young-Chan
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzes the changes of Gyeongju local society because of setting up low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site by using urban dynamics model. Specifically, after examining 'Gyeongju Long-Term Development Plan' announced in 2007, I establish the number of industries, population, gross local product, residents' income, and the long term employment condition as essential change-causing factors in Gyeongju local society based on the Big3 government project, and forecast it by using 'Gyeongju long-Term Development Plan' and all sorts of statistical data. In this stage, I assume 3 scenarios(basic, optimistic, and pessimistic view) to estimate the changes of local society more exquisitely, and scenarios are composed through mediation about variables of a growth rate and an inflow or outflow rate. The result shows that Gyeonaju local society would have growing changes by 2020. The essential change-causing factors are as follows. The case of population is estimated that it starts going down at the level of approximately 270 thousand by 2009, starts going up continuously after 2009, the year of completion of low and intermediate level radioactive waste disposal site, and increases from the level of about 300 thousand as minimum to 340 thousand as maximum in 2020. The estimates of other cases are made that the number of Industries has about 10 thousand increases, gross local product has almost 6 trillion increases, nominal gross national income doubles, as well as residences have approximately 280 thousand increases, and also made that employment condition also improves continuously, and diffusion ratio of house starts going up but the amount of supplies is a little bit insufficient in the long view.