• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동태적변화

Search Result 170, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Labor Markets: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis (조세·재정정책이 노동시장에 미치는 영향: 동태적 일반균형분석)

  • Kim, Sun-Bin;Chang, Yongsung
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.185-223
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper considers a heterogeneous agent dynamic general equilibrium model and analyzes effects of an increase in labor income tax rate on labor market and the aggregate variables in Korea. The fiscal policy regarding how the government uses the additional tax revenue may take the two forms: 1) general transfer and 2) earned income tax credit (EITC). The model features are as follows: 1) Workers are heterogeneous in their productivity. 2)Labor is indivisible, hence the analysis focuses on the variation in labor supply through the extensive margin in response to a change in fiscal policy. 3) The incomplete markets are introduced, so individual workers can not perfectly insure themselves against risks related to stochastic changes in income or employment status. 4) The model is of general equilibrium, hence it is equiped to analyze the feedback effect of changes in aggregate variables on individual workers' decisions. In the case of general transfer policy, the government equally distributes the additional tax revenue to all workers regardless of their employment states. Under this policy, an increase in the labor income tax rate dampens work incentives of individual workers so that the aggregate employment rate decreases by 1% compared with the benchmark economy. In the case of EITC policy, only employed workers whose labor incomes are below a certain EITC ceiling are eligible for the EITC benefits. Unlike the general transfer policy, the EITC induces low-income workers to participate the labor market to be eligible for EITC benefits. Hence, the aggregate employment rate may increase by 2.7% at the maximum. As the EITC ceiling increases, too many workers can collect the EITC but the benefits per worker becomes too little so that the increase in employment rate is negligible. By and large, this study demonstrates that EITC may effectively raise the aggregate employment rate, and that it can be a useful policy tool in response to the decrease in the labor force due to population aging as observed in Korea recently.

  • PDF

Technical Efficiency in Korea: Interindustry Determinants and Dynamic Stability (기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性)의 결정요인(決定要因)과 동태적(動態的) 변화(變化))

  • Yoo, Seong-min
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.21-46
    • /
    • 1990
  • This paper, a sequel to Yoo and Lee (1990), attempts to investigate the interindustry determinants of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries, and also to conduct an exploratory analysis on the stability of technical efficiency over time. The hypotheses set forth in this paper are most found in the existing literature on technical efficiency. They are, however, revised and shed a new light upon, whenever possible, to accommodate any Korea-specific conditions. The set of regressors used in the cross-sectional analysis are chosen and the hypotheses are posed in such a way that our result can be made comparable to those of similar studies conducted for the U.S. and Japan by Caves and Barton (1990) and Uekusa and Torii (1987), respectively. It is interesting to observe a certain degree of similarity as well as differentiation between the cross-section evidence on Korea's manufacturing industries and that on the U.S. and Japanese industries. As for the similarities, we can find positive and significant effects on technical efficiency of relative size of production and the extent of specialization in production, and negative and significant effect of the variations in capital-labor ratio within industries. The curvature influence of concentration ratio on technical efficiency is also confirmed in the Korean case. There are differences, too. We cannot find any significant effects of capital vintage, R&D and foreign competition on technical efficiency, all of which were shown to be robust determinants of technical efficiency in the U.S. case. We note, however, that the variables measuring capital vintage effect, R&D and the degree of foreign competition in Korean markets are suspected to suffer from serious measurement errors incurred in data collection and/or conversion of industrial classification system into the KSIC (Korea Standard Industrial Classification) system. Thus, we are reluctant to accept the findings on the effects of these variables as definitive conclusions on Korea's industrial organization. Another finding that interests us is that the cross-industry evidence becomes consistently strong when we use the efficiency estimates based on gross output instead of value added, which provides us with an ex post empirical criterion to choose an output measure between the two in estimating the production frontier. We also conduct exploratory analyses on the stability of the estimates of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries. Though the method of testing stability employed in this paper is never a complete one, we cannot find strong evidence that our efficiency estimates are stable over time. The outcome is both surprising and disappointing. We can also show that the instability of technical efficiency over time is partly explained by the way we constructed our measures of technical efficiency. To the extent that our efficiency estimates depend on the shape of the empirical distribution of plants in the input-output space, any movements of the production frontier over time are not reflected in the estimates, and possibilities exist of associating a higher level of technical efficiency with a downward movement of the production frontier over time, and so on. Thus, we find that efficiency measures that take into account not only the distributional changes, but also the shifts of the production frontier over time, increase the extent of stability, and are more appropriate for use in a dynamic context. The remaining portion of the instability of technical efficiency over time is not explained satisfactorily in this paper, and future research should address this question.

  • PDF

Understanding the Change of Irregular Worker Protection System as Incremental Institutional Change (점진적 제도변화 이론을 통해서 본 비정규직 보호제도의 이면적 변화)

  • Son, Yeonu
    • Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.85-111
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study examines the puzzle of institutional change of irregular worker protection system in Korea through a theory of incremental institutional change. It is the case of "conversion" mode of institutional change that occurs when ambiguous rules permit reinterpretations of rules and regulations for converting functions of institutions into new ones without formal revision. Management sectors with enforcement power have circumvented main rules of high discretion since 2007. In institutional dimension, the extent of irregular workers and the provisions of limit on employment-period and prohibition-correction on discrimination lack sufficient details. In political context, veto possibilities have been downward. Irregular workers were hardly organized independently and two labor union federations mainly composed of regular workers were less receptive to them. Veto possibilities in legislation were also low: the Economic and Social Development Commission ended up in weak labor representation and labor parties in the National Assembly have undergone dissolution.

Analysis on The Regional Industrial Growth and the Employment Effects of the First Newtown Project in Seoul Metropolitan Area (수도권 1기 신도시 지역산업의 성장과 고용효과의 변화 분석: 고양시와 성남시를 대상으로)

  • Park, So Hyun;Lee, Keumsook
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.34-48
    • /
    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the growth of major industries and effects of regional employment on the economic growth of Goyang city and Seongnam city in Gyeonggi Province. We examine the structural changes of the industrial specialization and factors of the growth in two regions by applying Location Quotients and dynamic shift-share analysis respectively. Both regions have been strengthened gradually in their industrial bases during the last 20 years since they have developed as the bed-towns for Seoul with the First Newtown Project of the Metropolitan Seoul area. These two regions have secured in the industrial specialization and competitiveness compare to other regions in the Metropolitan Seoul area. In particular, knowledge service industries have been agglomerated in both regions. Goyang city have secured in the medical welfare, culture and tourism of service sectors, while Seongnam city have secured in the information service and science technology service sectors. Therefore, each region might be differentiated regional foster industries in these sectors in order to succeed the economic development.

The Impacts of Nuclear Power Generation on Industrial Competitiveness: A Cross-country Comparison of Industrial Electricity Price Reduction Effect (원자력발전이 제조업 성장에 미치는 효과: 국가별 산업용 전력요금 절감 효과 비교)

  • Choi, Bongseok;Kim, Donghun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.449-470
    • /
    • 2016
  • This paper analyzes the effects of nuclear power generation on industrial growth in using the data of 22 manufacturing sectors in 14 nuclear power countries. The hypothesis that the change in the proportion of nuclear power generation in total electricity generation affects industrial value-added and industrial output through industrial electricity price reduction was tested using the dynamic panel data model. First, it was estimated that the increase in nuclear power generation by a 1% leads to a 0.8% reduction in electricity price. The results indicate that when nuclear power generation increased by a 1% point, industrial value-added and output increased by 0.16% and 0.23%,respectively, in the short-run and by 0.51% and 0.85%, respectively, in the long-run. It was also inferred that the effect of nuclear generation on industrial competitiveness working through electricity price reduction rely on institutional settings in the electricity markets. That is, the competitive effect is greater in the countries such as U.K and Japan where electricity price is high and price volatility is large. Meanwhile, in Germany which has pursued phasing out nuclear power, industrial competitiveness is promoted through stable electricity supply.

An Analysis of Ex-post Evaluation on Korea-EU FTA with respect to the Agricultural Sector (한·EU FTA 농업부문 사후영향평가)

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.7
    • /
    • pp.648-655
    • /
    • 2016
  • As the FTAs' implementations are accelerated, an Ex-post assessment, such as an analysis of the tariff schedule and agricultural trade has been emerging as an important national issue for an agricultural sector Korea-EU FTA, which was to be implemented in the five years from July 2016 as one of the giant FTA. The purpose of this study was to determine the demand of an ex-post assessment on agricultural sector as a trade negotiation procedural law. In addition, by providing policy direction for the agricultural policy part requiring amendments and supplements through ex-post assessment, the conflicting arguments between agricultural and non-agricultural sector can be evaluated more objectively. The current evaluation method on the economic impact ex-post assessment of a FTA is generally compared using the change in trade balance before and after the time of FTA implementation. On the other hand, this comparison cannot be said to be the pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA in all combined situations, such as the effects of exchange rates and international macroeconomic changes and climate change & occurrence of pests. Over the last 4 years, however, Korea-EU FTA's total accumulated agricultural GDP loss was measured to be 2,178 billion by these research attempts with dynamic analysis as ex-post assessment methodology. The greatest impact was mainly livestock and pork followed by cereals and vegetables. In addition, this research is expected to contribute to policy evaluations in the future.

A Exploratory Study on the Impact of Metropolitan and Provincial Offices of Education on Dynamic Change of Academic Achievement in General High School: Applying System Dynamics (시·도교육청에 의한 일반계고 학업성취도의 동태적 변화 예측에 관한 탐색적 연구: 시스템 다이내믹스의 적용)

  • Ha, Jung-Youn
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.9
    • /
    • pp.387-396
    • /
    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the variables of metropolitan and provincial offices of education that affect the academic achievement of unit schools, and to predict how academic achievements dynamically change with the support of offices of education. The results of academic achievement of 606 general high schools in 16 metropolitan and provincial offices of education(rates of attaining more than normal education in Korean, English, and mathematics subjects) were analyzed using a multi-level model and system dynamics. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the provincial and provincial offices of education's efforts to increase the efficiency of local education finance, the efforts to reduce teacher administration, and the facilitation of faculty training were the variables of the provincial and provincial offices of education. In addition, through policy experiments, efforts to revitalize teacher training were the most influential factors in academic achievement of unit schools, followed by efforts to streamline local education finances and to reduce the administrative work of teachers. In order to improve the academic achievement of unit schools, the functions of the metropolitan and provincial offices of education should be strengthened based on the education accountability, and policies need to be established in the mid- to long-term perspective.

우리나라의 부동산 가격 : 세율변동과 장기적인 지가변화를 중심으로

  • Jo, Dong-Cheol
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.22 no.1_2
    • /
    • pp.57-138
    • /
    • 2000
  • 본 연구는 이론적 모형전개와 자료분석의 두 측면에서 정리될 수 있다. 우선 경제학자들에게 널리 받아들여지고 있는 성장이론을 원용하여 지가의 결정과정에 대한 동태적이고 일반균형적인 접근방식을 제공하고자 하였다. 이를 통해 지가의 높고 낮음을 평가할 때 그 기준이 될 수 있는 변수로는 국민소득 대비 지가총액의 비율을 살펴보는 것이 합리화될 수 있음을 설명하였다. 이와 같은 이론적 배경하에서 우리나라의 경우 이 비율이 선진국 수준(1 내외)에 비하여는 아직도 상당히 높은 상태(3~4 수준)에 머물러 있는 것으로 보이나, 1970년대 하반기(10~12 수준)에 비하여는 크게 하락하였음을 살펴보았다. 본 연구는 이와 같은 상대적 지가하락의 주요한 한 요인으로 그동안 취해져 온 토지관련 실효세율의 상향조정을 검토하였다. 그 결과 국민소득의 10배를 상회할 정도로 크게 부풀려져 있었던 1970년대 하반기의 지가총액이 당시 토지에 대한 실효세율이 사실상 0에 가까웠다는 점에 의하여 상당 부분 설명될 수 있다는 점을 시사하고 있다.

  • PDF

기술의 동태적 변화를 고려한 Technology Matrix에 관한 연구

  • 김만기;이영해
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
    • /
    • 1997.07a
    • /
    • pp.175-194
    • /
    • 1997
  • The competitive power of technologies is required for survival of enterprises in the social environments that change rapidly. So the strategy of technology development becomes more and more important. For the establishment of strategy, the situational analysis and the forecasting analysis are executed and they include the technology assessment and the technological forecasting. The technology assessment is systematical examination and analysis of the present status of technology. Among the various methods of technology assessment, Matrix Method is one of the usual methods. This research is intended to find out the problems and the difficulties in the current Matrix Method, and to improve the method, finally to help the R&D departments of enterprises applying the method. This suggested matrix(TSM Technology Shift Matrix) method is designed so that one can judge the current situation of technology and future expectation, by moving the matrix which is placed to the upside of the basic matrix.

  • PDF

정보보호인력의 분류체계에 대한 대한 연구

  • 김태성;전효정;이진희;이초희
    • Review of KIISC
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.50-60
    • /
    • 2003
  • 정보통신이 국가(사회 활동의 주요한 기반이 됨에 따라, 해킹, 컴퓨터 바이러스 유포, 개인정보 및 프라이버시 침해 등 정보화의 역기능 현상도 급증하고 있다. 정보화의 역기능은 정부 및 공공기관, 기업, 개인 모두가 정보보호의 중요성을 인식하도록 하는 계기가 되었으며, 그 결과 정보보호산업이 활성화되었다. 그러나, 정보보호산업에 대한 갑작스러운 수요 증가는 적절한 전문인력 확보에 차질을 빚어, 현재 정보보호인력시장은 공급부족으로 인한 수급 불일치 현상을 보이고 있다. 인력은 산업발전의 가장 큰 원동력으로 작용한다. 따라서, 향후 지속적인 성장이 전망되고 있는 정보보호산업이 꾸준히 발전할 수 있기 위해서는 무엇보다도 정보보호인력의 확보가 뒷받침되어야 할 것이다. 정보보호 기술의 생명주기가 매우 짧고, 매우 역동적으로 변화하는 데다가 정보보호산업이 타산업과의 동태적인 상관관계 속에서 성장하는 산업이기 때문에 과연 정보보호인력이란 무엇인가라는 간단한 질문에 대한 해답조차도 아직까지 명확하게 제시되지 못하고 있어 정보보호인력 양성을 위한 정책수립 및 시행에 있어 정부, 기업 등 관련 기관 모두의 어려움을 가중시키고 있다. 본 논문에서는 정부 및 민간 부문에서 정보보호인력의 양성 및 공급 관련 의사결정의 토대가 될 정보보호인력의 분류체계(정의, 범위, 분류)에 대한 분석을 하고자 한다.