• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동태적변화

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A Study on the Theory of Power-law and Science Technology Policy System under Convergence Technology Environment (융합기술환경에서 멱법칙과 과학기술정책체계분석)

  • Cho, Sang-Sup
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.28-46
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    • 2012
  • This paper proposes the science and technology policy implications of power law in econophysics methodology under the recent convergence technology environment. Empirical results are summarized as follow: first, similar empirical results are showed up using Hill estimates and Rank-1/2 estimates in patent data set during 1990 through 2008. Second, the estimates of power law exponents for technology capability distribution are decreased during the periods. The policy implications for science and technology development draw from the empirical results. First, the fact that the exponents of power law are decreased show the convergence of technology capability among countries. The our country policy directs focus on the innovation strategy rather than imitation strategy. Second, the volatility of technology change results from a few capable technology developers so that policy direct may need to control the technology power in the large technology developer or company. The methodology and analytical results used in the paper may also be useful for consider for the science and technology phenomena such as convergence and divergence of technologies among countries in the world.

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Development of the Housing Business Model to Minimize the Fluctuation Risk of the Housing Market (주택시장 변동리스크를 최소화하기 위한 주택사업모델 개발)

  • Lee, Younghoon;Lee, Sanghyo;Kim, Jaejun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.635-646
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    • 2016
  • This paper proposes a housing business model, where the presale and Chonsei housing are supplied under a presale system at the same time based on the characteristic correlation between the housing presale market and Chonsei market in Korea. Markowitz portfolio theory was used to review the risk diversification effects from the changes in the ratio between the presale housing supply and the Chonsei housing supply. The housing sale price indicator was used as a proxy variable to determine the presale housing supply. The housing Chonsei price indicator was used as a proxy variable to determine the Chonsei housing supply. The proposed housing business model was applied to major areas in Korea to examine the risk diversification effect. Comparisons of the regional portfolio analyses showed that the flexibility of the proposed housing business model can be quite effective because each regional housing market exhibits different characteristics. Market participants, such as developers, construction companies, consumers, and government, can expect various effects through the proposed housing business model. Nevertheless, policy support is necessary for practical applications of the proposed housing business model. In particular, public funds from the government need to be introduced.

Establishment of Database and Distribution Maps for Biomass Resources (바이오매스 자원 DB 구축과 분포도 작성)

  • Kim, Yi-Hyun;Nam, Jae-Jak;Hong, S. Young;Choe, Eun-Young;Hong, Seung-Gil;So, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.379-384
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    • 2009
  • This study was carried out to understand the national and regional distribution of the biomass resources produced in Korea annually via establishing database (DB) and distribution maps of biomass resources data including as livestock manures, food wastes and agricultural by-product. The information of the annual production of each biomass resources was obtained from Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MIFAFF), Ministry of Environment (MOE) and National Statistical Office (NSO). Based on biomass resources data, we established database architecture table about livestock manures and food wastes. The distribution maps for the total amount of manures produced from each livestock animal were built up in both national and regional scales and used for analysis of the space-based and time-based distribution of the manure resources. Distribution maps for food wastes and agricultural by-product were also produced, respectively. It was shown that the analysis through resource mapping can be used to identify the sources of collectable biomass feasibly determining suitable region for establishment of a biomass-energy production. The biomass distribution maps graphically provide the information regarding biomass resources to policy-makers, farmers, general users and it was expected to be utilized for policy-making of environmental-friendly agriculture and bio-energy.

A Study on the Impact of the Urban Decline on the Subjective Well-being of Residents (도시의 쇠퇴가 지역주민의 삶의 만족감에 미치는 영향 - 도시 규모의 차이를 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, O-Kyu;Kang, Eun-Taek;Ma, Kang-Rae
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.33-47
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of urban decline on Subjective Well-being(SWB). According to the scale of the city, the municipal districts of Korea are classified into metropolitan cities, middle cities, and small cities. The SWB in the growth area, the maintenance area, and the declining area according to the degree of relative decline of each city group was examined. In addition, in order to consider the complex nature of urban decline, SWB was divided into overall life satisfaction, household income satisfaction, and housing environment satisfaction. Panel models were also used to identify the dynamic relationship between the progress of urban decay and the change in SWB. The empirical analysis of this study examined the effect of decline on the SWB for the local residents. As a result, it was confirmed that the effect of urban decline on the SWB of the residents varies according to the size of the city where the individual resides, according th the SWB by the division. In the case of metropolitan inhabitants, the decline of the housing environment of the residents due to deterioration of the physical environment was confirmed as a result of the decline of the city, but the overall life satisfaction was increased due to the decrease of the social costs such as congestion in an overcrowded area. On the contrary, in the case of the residents of the small cities, it is confirmed that the decline of the city reduces the overall life satisfaction, household income satisfaction, and housing environment satisfaction.

A Study on Netwotk Effect by using System Dynamics Analysis: A Case of Cyworld (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 네트워크 효과 분석: 싸이월드 사례)

  • Kim, Ga-Hye;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-179
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays an increasing number of Internet users are running individual websites as Blog or Cyworld. As this type of personal media has a great influence on communication among people, business comes to care about Network Effect, Network Software, and Social Network. For instance, Cyworld created the web service called 'Minihompy' for individual web-logs, and acquired 2.4milion users in 2007. Although many people assumed that the popularity of Minihompy, or Blog would be a passing fad, Cyworld has improved its service, and expanded its Network with various contents. This kind of expansion reflects survival efforts from infinite competitions among ISPs (Internet Service Provider) with focus on enhancing usability to users. However, Cyworld's Network Effect is gradually diminished in these days. Both of low production cost of service vendors and the low searching/conversing costs of users combine to make ISPs hard to keep their market share sustainable. To overcome this lackluster trend, Cyworld has adopted new strategies and try to lock their users in their service. Various efforts to improve the continuance and expansion of Network effect remain unclear and uncertain. If we understand beforehand how a service would improve Network effect, and which service could bring more effect, ISPs can get substantial help in launching their new business strategy. Regardless many diverse ideas to increase their user's duration online ISPs cannot guarantee 'how the new service strategies will end up in profitability. Therefore, this research studies about Network effect of Cyworld's 'Minihompy' using System-Dynamics method which could analyze dynamic relation between users and ISPs. Furthermore, the research aims to predict changes of Network Effect based on the strategy of new service. 'Page View' and 'Duration Time' can be enhanced for the short tenn because they enhance the service functionality. However, these services cannot increase the Network in the long-run. Limitations of this research include that we predict the future merely based on the limited data. We also limit the independent variables over Network Effect only to the following two issues: Increasing the number of users and increasing the Service Functionality. Despite of some limitations, this study perhaps gives some insights to the policy makers or others facing the stiff competition in the network business.

Factor Analysis Affecting on Changes in Handysize Freight Index and Spot Trip Charterage (핸디사이즈 운임지수 및 스팟용선료 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2021
  • The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

A Study on the Nature observation and Scientific methodology in Zhōuyì周易 - Focusing on its association with Contemporary Science (『주역(周易)』의 자연관찰과 과학적 방법론에 관한 연구 - 『주역(周易)』에 나타난 현대자연과학적 의미를 중심으로 -)

  • Shin, Jungwon
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.71
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    • pp.99-128
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    • 2018
  • Zhōuyì周易 is intended to explain the affairs of human beings by observing the images and works of all things in the universe, abstracting them into the $b{\bar{a}}gu{\grave{a}}$八卦, calculating the process and inducing the outcome by the method of stalk divination, in which this paper finds the origin of natural scientific thought of Zhōuyì. The way of Zhōuyì's thought on the natural science is distinguished from that of the Western's. In the West, people dismantled the objects into the parts until they reached the atom and analyzed them by the principle of causality to draw an axiomatic truth. In the meantime Zhōuyì observed and studied the dynamic functions and changes of all things for the convergence of the whole. While the way of Zhōuyì's thinking could have not contributed to the development of modern scientific development, that of the West overwhelmed Asian development passing through the period of enlightenment during 16-17 century. This paper tries to articulate the points where Zhōuyì can share its theory with the contemporary science by finding the traces of scientific thoughts in Zhōuyì. It encounters its ground from the methodology of natural science and scientific statements proposed by Zhōuyì. The essential concepts of Zhōuyì are induced from all things in nature. This can be considered as the idea of '法自然'(emulating the patterns and examples from nature). Also they observed the images and changes seen by the habits of animals, plants and human beings to sense and perceive their laws. These are regarded as the methodology of natural science in Zhōuyì. As a book of divination, the way of stalk divination is designed to calculate the future by using the system of 'numbers'. 'tàijí太極', ' yīnyáng陰陽', 'four symbols四象', '$b{\bar{a}}gu{\grave{a}}$八卦' and 'wǔxíng五行' are the essential concepts of Zhōuyì to represents the dynamic phenomena and changes of the natural order. Among them '$b{\bar{a}}gu{\grave{a}}$八卦' is a presentment to explain the structure of the world not by the individual analysis of things but by the unification of the whole through the contradictions and interchanges among them to reach the new orders. As of now, the studies of Zhōuyì in Korea have focused on the traditional perspectives, such as political and ethical philosophy. Some of recent studies, having interpreted Zhōuyì with scientific inclination have generated controversy 'Can Zhōuyì be a science?', for which scholars have hard time to reach the agreement. This paper tries to find the headwaters of the contemporary natural science by elaborating the methodology of natural science stated in Zhōuyì.

우리나라의 출산력과 가정경제행태에 관한 연구

  • 노공균;조남훈
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.17-45
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    • 1987
  • This study contributes to understanding women's labor market behavior by focusing on a particular set of labor force transitions - labor force withdrawal and entry during the period surrounding the first birth of a child. In particular, this study provides a dynamic analyses, using longitudinal data and event history analysis, to conceptualize labor force behaviors in a straightforward way. The main research question addresses which factors increase or decrease the hazard rates of leaving and entering the labor market. This study used piecewise Gompertz model, following the guide of the non-parametric analysis on the hazard rates, which allowed relatively detailed description on the distribution of timing of leave and entry to the labor market as parameters of interest. The results show that preferences and structural variables, as well as economic considerations, are very important factors to explain the labor market behavior of women in the period surrounding childbirth.

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Optimum Population in Korea : An Economic Perspective (한국의 적정인구: 경제학적 관점)

  • Koo, Sung-Yeal
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2005
  • The optimum population of a society or country can be defined as 'the population growth path that maximizes the welfare level of the society over the whole generations of both the present and the future, under the paths allowed by its endowments of production factors such as technology, capital and labor'. Thus, the optimum size or growth rate of population depends on: (i) the social welfare function, (ii) the production function, and (iii)demographic economic interrelationship which defines how the national income is disposed into consumption(birth and education of children included) and savings on the one hand and how the demographic and economic change induced thereby, in turn, affect production capacities on the other. The optimum population growth path can, then, be derived in the process of dynamic optimization of (i) under the constraints of (ii) and (iii), which will give us the optimum population growth rate defined as a function of parameters thereof. This paper estimates the optimum population growth rate of Korea by: specifying (i), (ii), and (iii) based on the recent development of economic theories, solving the dynamic optimization problem and inserting empirical estimates in Korea as the parametric values. The result shows that the optimum path of population growth in Korea is around TFR=1.81, which is affected most sensitively, in terms of the size of the partial elasticity around the optimum path, by the cost of children, share of capital income, consumption rate, time preference, population elasticity of utility function, etc. According to a survey implemented as a follow up study, there are quite a significant variations in the perceived cost of children, time preference rate, population elasticity of utility across different socio-economic classes in Korea, which implied that, compared to their counterparts, older generation and more highly educated classes prefer higher growth path for the population of Korea.

Research Trend Analysis Using Bibliographic Information and Citations of Cloud Computing Articles: Application of Social Network Analysis (클라우드 컴퓨팅 관련 논문의 서지정보 및 인용정보를 활용한 연구 동향 분석: 사회 네트워크 분석의 활용)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.195-211
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    • 2014
  • Cloud computing services provide IT resources as services on demand. This is considered a key concept, which will lead a shift from an ownership-based paradigm to a new pay-for-use paradigm, which can reduce the fixed cost for IT resources, and improve flexibility and scalability. As IT services, cloud services have evolved from early similar computing concepts such as network computing, utility computing, server-based computing, and grid computing. So research into cloud computing is highly related to and combined with various relevant computing research areas. To seek promising research issues and topics in cloud computing, it is necessary to understand the research trends in cloud computing more comprehensively. In this study, we collect bibliographic information and citation information for cloud computing related research papers published in major international journals from 1994 to 2012, and analyzes macroscopic trends and network changes to citation relationships among papers and the co-occurrence relationships of key words by utilizing social network analysis measures. Through the analysis, we can identify the relationships and connections among research topics in cloud computing related areas, and highlight new potential research topics. In addition, we visualize dynamic changes of research topics relating to cloud computing using a proposed cloud computing "research trend map." A research trend map visualizes positions of research topics in two-dimensional space. Frequencies of key words (X-axis) and the rates of increase in the degree centrality of key words (Y-axis) are used as the two dimensions of the research trend map. Based on the values of the two dimensions, the two dimensional space of a research map is divided into four areas: maturation, growth, promising, and decline. An area with high keyword frequency, but low rates of increase of degree centrality is defined as a mature technology area; the area where both keyword frequency and the increase rate of degree centrality are high is defined as a growth technology area; the area where the keyword frequency is low, but the rate of increase in the degree centrality is high is defined as a promising technology area; and the area where both keyword frequency and the rate of degree centrality are low is defined as a declining technology area. Based on this method, cloud computing research trend maps make it possible to easily grasp the main research trends in cloud computing, and to explain the evolution of research topics. According to the results of an analysis of citation relationships, research papers on security, distributed processing, and optical networking for cloud computing are on the top based on the page-rank measure. From the analysis of key words in research papers, cloud computing and grid computing showed high centrality in 2009, and key words dealing with main elemental technologies such as data outsourcing, error detection methods, and infrastructure construction showed high centrality in 2010~2011. In 2012, security, virtualization, and resource management showed high centrality. Moreover, it was found that the interest in the technical issues of cloud computing increases gradually. From annual cloud computing research trend maps, it was verified that security is located in the promising area, virtualization has moved from the promising area to the growth area, and grid computing and distributed system has moved to the declining area. The study results indicate that distributed systems and grid computing received a lot of attention as similar computing paradigms in the early stage of cloud computing research. The early stage of cloud computing was a period focused on understanding and investigating cloud computing as an emergent technology, linking to relevant established computing concepts. After the early stage, security and virtualization technologies became main issues in cloud computing, which is reflected in the movement of security and virtualization technologies from the promising area to the growth area in the cloud computing research trend maps. Moreover, this study revealed that current research in cloud computing has rapidly transferred from a focus on technical issues to for a focus on application issues, such as SLAs (Service Level Agreements).