• Title/Summary/Keyword: 동태적변화

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Analyzing Dynamics of Korean Housing Market Using Causal Loop Structures (주택시장의 동태성 분석을 위한 시스템 사고의 적용에 관한 연구 - 인과순환지도를 중심으로 -)

  • Shin Hye-Sung;Sohn Jeong-Rak;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.3 s.25
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    • pp.144-155
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    • 2005
  • Since 1950s, the Korean housing market has continually experienced the chronicle lack of housing stock because of lower housing investment in comparison with a population explosion, prompt urbanization and rapid restructuring of family. The Korean housing market have thus been driven not by the pricing model by housing demand-supply chain but by the Korean housing policies focusing on the increase of housing supply and the living stability of the middle or low-income bracket. After all, repetitive economic vicious circle of housing price and the increase of unsold apartments aggravated the malfunction of the Korean housing market. Meanwhile, the Korean construction firms have exacerbated their profitability. Such terrible situations are mainly triggered by the Korean construction firms that weighed on the short-term profits and quick response of the government policy alterations rather than the prospect of housing market Therefore, this research focusing on the dynamics of housing market identified and classified the demand and supply elements that consist not only of housing system structures but also of the environmental elements that affect the structures. Based on the system thinking and traditional theory of consumer's choice, the interactions of these elements were constructed as a causal loop diagram that explains the mutual influences among housing subsystems with feedback loops. This paper describes and discusses about the causes of the dynamic changes in the Korean housing market. This study would help housing suppliers, including housing developers, construction firms, etc., to form a more comprehensive understanding on the fundamental issues that constitute the Korean housing market and thereby increasing their long term as well as minimizing the risk involved in the housing supply businesses.

Designs for Self-enforcing International Environmental Coordination (원유공급 위기의 경제적 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Gyeong Lyeob;Sonn, Yang-Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.27-63
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    • 2007
  • Using the CGE model, this paper investigates economic impacts of a shortage in crude oil resulting from voluntary export restraints, OPEC's agreement of a cut in oil production, and/or a storing on speculation. Unlike most previous studies considering oil price as the unpredictable variable, this study constructs the model to determine the oil price endogenously under the condition of an insufficient supply of crude oil. According to IEA's extraordinary steps for a shortage of crude oil, we investigate an economic impact of 7~12% shortage below the level of business as usual. The results show that oil price soars by 17.3~33.5%, the rate of economic growth falls by 0.52~0.96%p, and the consumer price index(CPI) rises by 0.8~1.51%p. These results imply that increasing in 1%p of oil price results in decreasing in 0.03%p of economic growth and increasing in 0.045%p of consumer price index. The production of electricity declines because of the increase in production cost. A shortage of crude oil has an effect on sources of electricity. Most reduction in electricity generation occurs from the reduction in the thermal power generation which is highly dependent on crude oil. The shortage of crude oil causes demand for petroleum to significantly decline but demand for coal and heat to increase because of the substitution effect with petroleum. Demand for gas rise in the first year but falls from the second year.

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The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea during the Global Financial Crisis (금융위기에 대응한 확장적 재정정책의 효과성 분석)

  • Kim, SeongTae
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.27-68
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    • 2012
  • This study outlines measures related to fiscal policies aimed at responding to the financial crisis according to the timing of commencement and then examines impacts of expansionary fiscal policies on macro variables so as to extract policy implications. The size of expansionary fiscal policy to respond to the financial crisis is found to total 59.8 trillion won (6.1% of GDP in 2007), among which a total of 30.5 trillion won was the increased fiscal expenditure made by the 2008 supplementary budget, the 2009 revised budget and the 2009 supplementary budget. In addition, tax reductions are found to be a total of 29.3 trillion won, mainly driven by the tax reforms in 2008 and 2009. Examining dynamic changes in macro variables caused by the temporary increase in fiscal expenditure and the tax reductions reveals that the increase effect of the real GDP growth rate brought by a temporary rise in fiscal expenditure excluding tax reduction effects turned out to be 1.1%p in 2009 and 0.3%p in 2010, compared to the period without the increase in fiscal expenditure. Meanwhile, when taking into account the effect of expansionary fiscal policies including tax reduction effects, the increase effect of real GDP turns out to be much higher. In the case of 2009, the real GDP rose additionally by 1.9%p, in which 1.1%p by the increase in fiscal expenditure and 0.8%p by tax reduction. Based on these results, the expansionary fiscal policy conducted during the financial crisis since the second half of 2008 can be seen to have played a significant role in helping the Korean economy post a higher-than-anticipated recovery pace from the economic slowdown triggered by the crisis.

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Applying Strategy Group Concept to Program Providers(PP) Industry (PP 산업에 대한 전략집단 개념의 적용)

  • Yeo, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Young-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.357-370
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    • 2011
  • Using strategy group theory, this thesis reviewed the status of program providers analysis and the performances it has made so far, and sought measures to improve its limitations. The constraint of program providers analysis based on existing concept of strategy group is that the strategy group was derived from the statistics, and therefore only applied the characteristics of program provider's channels to the analysis, on account of which a systematic and sophisticated classification as well as generalization of strategy or strategy group were hard to obtain. Moreover, the PP strategy variables used to be selected at the firm level and business level, and in relation with resource and competition scope. In future, more appropriate procedure should be followed to obtain objectivity in selecting variables to avoid controversy over intentionality. The measures in this thesis to improve the study of PP strategy group can be summarized as follows: firstly analysis of variables for strategy group classification should be made to single out key variables which are to be classification criteria. Secondly, variables are to be cross-checked by industry experts to increase generalizability. Thirdly, proxy variables should be sublated, and strategy group model which enables the reflection of subsistent properties of PP industry, and the cognitive perception of the executives(CEO) needs to be established. Fourthly, the concepts of mobility barrier and isolating mechanism should be applied to the classification criteria of strategy group to reveal the gap of performance between different strategy groups. Lastly, chronicle study on PP strategy group should be done to perceive the dynamic changes of PP strategy group.

Dynamic Growth of On-Line Shopping and its Implication on the Channel Policy: The Case of South Korea (온라인 쇼핑의 동태적 성장과 유통정책에 대한 함의)

  • Lee, Dong-Il;Suh, Yong-Gu
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.127-153
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    • 2010
  • This study explores the locomotives of the growth in the Korean online shopping industry upon the theoretical basis based on the last 10 years' rapid changing environment. This attempt reveals the counter-arguments against preemtive effects based on the observation of reintermediation process in the online industry. We reviewed the NEBIC model proposed by Wheeler(2002) and propose the growth model, double helix framework based on the dynamic capability view. Furthermore the relevance of the proposed framework was validated with the review of last 10 years' sales and market share data in the online shopping industry. Meanwhile we found the limits of online market growth with the open market domination. So future of the online shopping retailers is depending on the development of the channel functions and merchandising on the basis of self-capability. Based on the tentative conclusion, we also suggest implications for the policy makers. Firstly policy facilitating the specialization of the power sellers incubased in the open market is necessary for the sustainable online market growth. And the establishment of the control tower is suggested to coordinate the consistency of the policies and regulations. And the device of the incentive is also proposed to strengthen the open markets' function to facilitate the small and medium online merchants.

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A Multidisciplinary Research Framework for Green Car Industry (그린카 산업의 학제적 분석 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jinho;Chung, Sunyang;Park, Kyungbae;Jang, Dae-Chul;Cho, Hyeongrye;Kang, SeungGyu
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.101-133
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    • 2014
  • Climate change and low-carbon consumer movement is demanding proper response around the world while rising oil price increases consumers' needs for green car. As a preliminary study to establish an industrial platform for green car and bring out corporate strategies, this article aims to propose an academic research framework by using various methodologies including conceptual/mathematical modeling, system dynamics, and ABM from different angles. First, an analysis framework for the industrial platform was introduced to analyze green car cases, required elements were proposed, and econometrics was applied to build a basic model related to green platform (two-sided market). Also, to analyze from a dynamic perspective, a system dynamics model was applied to green car environment to build a system dynamics analysis model that is applicable to particular green car industry analysis. Lastly, an agent based model was used to study the way to activate the hybrid car market in Korea from individual consumers' perspective. Based on the result, vehicle policies that are either being enforced or planned to be enforced in the Korean HEV market can be analyzed.

An Exploratory Study on the Effects of Social Capital mediated Corporate Entrepreneurship of Venture upon Corporate Performance (벤처기업의 사회적 자본이 조직기업가정신을 매개로 기업성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Chung, Dae-Yong;Roh, Kyoung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.1863-1872
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    • 2010
  • Researches recently made in advanced countries into entrepreneurship found that various resources and information are mainly provided to ventures through social capital, which is a resource capital based on a network, and through corporate entrepreneurship. This research is an exploratory study on the effects of social capital and corporate entrepreneurship of new ventures upon their corporate performance, conducted from the standpoint of dynamic capability. For that purpose, a questionnaire investigation was made of 171 venture entrepreneurs in Korea, and the following are the results of an empirical analysis of responses to the questionnaire. First, it was found that social capital, which is a resource capital based on a network, had a significant effect on corporate entrepreneurship. Second, social capital also had a significant effect on ventures corporate performance. Third, corporate entrepreneurship had a significant effect on corporate performance. These results imply that social capital and corporate entrepreneurship have a significant effect on the corporate performance of ventures, which have innate disadvantages concerning the supply of resources. On the other hand, ventures, which encounter relatively more intense demands for change and renovation, can be managed in a sustainable manner just when they adequately accumulate their social capital and utilize their external resources and appropriately conduct their corporate entrepreneurship activities.

The Effect Analysis of Smart City Planning on Urban Dynamics Using System Dynamics Method - Focused on Anyang-city, Korea (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 스마트도시계획이 도시동태성에 미치는 영향 분석 - 안양시를 중심으로)

  • Yi, Mi Sook;Yeo, Kwan Hyun;Kim, Chang Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2020
  • Recently, smart cities are attracting attention as a solution for a plethora of urban problems, including transportation, environment, safety, and energy. However, despite a substantial body of research dealt with the concept, trends, policy, and legal institutions of smart cities, few researchers have examined how the smart city services influence the cities from the dynamic perspective that considers the entire cycle of a city, including its growth, stagnation, and decline. Thus, it is vital to understand how the city changes with time from the view that a city is a system of sub-elements-population, industry, transportation, environment, housing, and land-closely interacting together. Within this context, this study explores how the urban dynamics of Anyang-city develop for the long term using the System Dynamics method and analyzes the effect of smart city project investment on the dynamics of Anyang-city. According to the result, Anyang-city is a "mature and stable" type, and its population is expected to decrease slowly by 2040. Specifically, the Anyang-city population will be reduced to 553,000 by 2030. It was analyzed that the number will decrease to 543,000 by 2040. It was also found that the investment in smart city projects in Anyang, based on the Plan for Anyang Smart City, would have the following effects: easing population decline, increasing number of businesses, improving urban safety index, and increasing average driving speed. The population will grow by 4,000 and the number of businesses will increase by 761 than before budget investment. The result of this paper is expected to contribute to identifying and predicting the effect of smart city policies from a long-term perspective.

An Analysis on the pass-through of Korean export prices of Exchange rate changes (글로벌 금융위기 이후 환률변동과 수출가격)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.229-249
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    • 2011
  • The exchange rate change has been increased since the time when the floating exchange rate system was introduced in Korea. As a result, the increase of the exchange rate changes raised the risk in international trades in Korea. Also after Bretton Woods System broke down, the increasing exchange rate fluctuation raised the risk in international trade. The purpose of this dissertation is to study whether this incomplete pass-through exists in Korean export industry and furthermore to measure the markup rate of the export price using real data since Global Financial Crisis. The estimation results of the export price determination model by Error Correction Model shows that the export price of Korea has been greatly influenced by the export prices and exchange rates against U.S. Dollar of rival countries, domestic producer price as well as the Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate and also business coincidence index of U.S. in demand. Particularly, the pass-through rate of Korean Won-U.S. Dollar exchange rate to export price is estimated to be incomplete, which contrasts with the propositions of traditional exchange rate determination approach, e. g. elasticity approach, monetary approach, etc.

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The Efficiency of e-Logistics on the Global Logistics Providers Using the SBM Model (SBM을 이용한 글로벌 물류기업의 정보시스템 성과분석)

  • Park, Hong-Gyun
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2011
  • By strengthening the market control and expanding the networks, providers of global logistics are expanding their service scope. E-logistics connects e-business to internal and external information system by using WMS, TMS, and OMS. The paper focuses on analyzing the efficiency of the tope fifty Global Logistics Providers. Therefore, the study classifies the factors which specify the efficiency of a total logistics industry and verified its firmness. Furthermore, the most recently published reports by Logistics Quarterly and Armstrong Association in 2011 was used in order to guarantee credibility of the study. This study utilizes three years of materials, from 2007, 2008, 2009 on publish 2010, for scope period for analysis. By applying SBM (Slack Based Measure) & the DEA Window model, the trend in efficiency and stableness was analyzed. Consequently, the main purpose of the paper is evaluating the efficiency. Also, analyzing its determinants and illustrating a long-term relationship between the annual turnover and major shippers was used as output measures. In addition, the number of information system operations, the grade of information systems, and employee of Logistics Providers was used as input measures.