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Studies on the Species Crossabilities in the Genus Pinus and Principal Characteristics of F1 Hybrids (일대잡종송(一代雜種松)의 교배친화력(交配親和力)과 특성(特性)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Ahn, Kun Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 1972
  • By means of the interspecific hybridization in the Sub-genus Diploxylon of the Genus Pinus, $F_1$ hybrids of Pinus rigida${\times}$elliottii, Pinus rigida${\times}$radiata, P. rigida${\times}$serotina and P. densiflora${\times}$thunbergii had been produced. And on the basis of the crossabilities of these hybrids the taxonomic affinities of these pines were examined. And the needle characteristics of these hybrid and the occurence of phenolic substances in these $F_1$ hybrid were also investigated to see the potential usefulness of these characteristics for the diagnosis of the taxonomic affinity. And, the growth performances of the $F_1$ hybrids have also been compared with those of parental species. In order to contribute to the establishment of the hybrid seed orchard the introgression phenomena between P. densiflora and P. thunbergii in the eastern coastal area have also been investigated along with the investigation of the heterozygosity of plus trees of P. densiflora growing in the clone bank in Suwon. And the results were summarized as follows. 1. On the basis of crossabilities as well as on the taxonomic affinities according to the systems of Shaw, Pilger and Duffield, it has been proven that the parental species of those hybrids are of close affinities and range of the fertile hybrid seed production rate was as high as 28-58% in the best hybrid combination (Table 13). 2. Among those hybrids, the ${\times}$ Pinus, rigiserotina hybrid seemed to be most promising in the growth performance exhibiting 109-155% more volume growth compared to the seed parent with the statistic significance of 1% level (Tables 16 and 17). 3. Notwithstanding the fact that the all of the pollen parents are cold tender, all hybrids exhibit cold hardiness as much as their seed parent and it seems to suggest that the characteristics of cold hardiness were transmitted from the seed parent. 4. Though a striking difference in needle length was observed between the parental species of each hybrid, it was difficult to distinguish each hybrid from their seed parent by the needle length except ${\times}$P. rigiserotina which is characterized by long needle which is 65% more longer than the needle of the seed parent (Table 21). 5. With regard to the anatomical characteristics of needle, the hypoderm is apparently thicker in most of the $F_1$ hybrid pines and the characteristics of resin canals are dominated by medial in most $F_1$ hybrid. And, the fibrovascular bundles were apart as were in their seed parent. Therefore it was found to be possible to distinguish the hybrids pines from their parents by the needle characteristics. And, it is to be noticed that the ${\times}$P. densithunbergii was more close to the pollen parent having RDI value of 0.73 (Fig.l, Table 22). 6. It has been demonstrated that ${\times}$P. rigielliottii, ${\times}$P. rigiradiata and ${\times}$P. rigitaeda have a phenolic substance (No.7) of light yellow at Rf-0.46, same as their seed parent, but no trace of phenolic substance was observed in their pollen parent. This fact will serve as an important criteria for early identification of hybridity in progeny testing. However, the fact that both of ${\times}$P. rigiserotina and ${\times}$P. densithunbergii exhibit the same reactions of phenolic substances as well their parental species seems to indicate the close affinities between the parental species of the respective hybrid (Fig.2, Table 23). 7. The separation and the reaction of phenolic substance developed on TLC were found to be same in the same species showing no variations between the individuals, and no variations due to tree part of sampling, tree age or pollen sources. And the reaction was also observed regardless of the not varied by the kind of developing solvent whether it is Aceton-Chloroform (3:7 v/v) or Benzene-Methanol-Acetic acid (90:16:8 v/v). 8. The introgression phenomena of natural Pinus densifiora stand in both east and west coastal area indicates that the major part of the red pines investigated are all heterozygous and the heterozygosity of pines are higher in the west coast than in the east coast(Tables 24 and 25). 9. Based on the RDI, among the plus trees of Pinus densiflora selected in Korea and Japan as well, no pure P. densiflora has been found. Since all of the sample trees of Pinus densiflora were found to be as heterozygous bearing part of the characteristics of P. thunbergii, those red pines were considered to be natural heterotic hybrid pines(Figs. 3 and 4. Tables 26 and 27).

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Evaluation of Error Factors in Quantitative Analysis of Lymphoscintigraphy (Lymphoscintigraphy의 정량분석 시 오류 요인에 관한 평가)

  • Yeon, Joon-Ho;Kim, Soo-Yung;Choi, Sung-Ook;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.76-82
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Lymphoscintigraphy is absolutely being used standard examination in lymphatic diagnosis, evaluation after treatment, and it is useful for lymphedema to plan therapy. In case of lymphoscintigraphy of lower-extremity lymphedema, it had an effect on results if patients had not pose same position on the examination of 1 min, 1 hour and 2 hours after injection. So we'll study the methods to improve confidence with minimized quantitative analysis errors by influence factors. Materials and Methods: Being used the Infinia of GE Co. we injected $^{99m}Tc$-phytate 37 MBq (1.0 mCi) 4 sylinges into 40 people's feet hypodermically from June to August 2010 in Samsung Medical Center. After we acquired images of fixed and unfixed condition, we confirmed the count values change by attenuation of soft tissue and bone according to different feet position. And we estimated 5 times increasing 2 cm of distance between $^{99m}Tc$ point source and detector each time to check counts difference according to distance change by different feet position. Finally, we compared 1 and 6 min lymphoscintigraphy images with same position to check the effect of quantitative analysis results owing to difference of amounts of movement of the $^{99m}Tc$-phytate in the lymphatic duct. Results: Percentage difference regarding error values showed minimum 2.7% and maximum 25.8% when comparing fixed and unfixed feet position of lymphoscintigraphy examination at 1 min after injection. And count values according to distance were 173,661 (2 cm), 172,095 (4 cm), 170,996 (6 cm), 167,677 (8 cm), 169,208 counts (10 cm) which distance was increased interval of 2 cm and basal value was mean 176,587 counts, and percentage difference values were not over 2.5% such as 1.27, 1.79, 2.04, 2.42, 2.35%. Also, Assessment results about amounts of movement in lymphatic duct within 6 min until scanning after injection showed minimum 0.15%, and maximum 2.3% which were amounts of movement. We can recognize that error values represent over 20% due to only attenuation of soft tissue and bone except for distance difference (2.42%) and amounts of movement in lymphatic duct (2.3%). Conclusion: It was show that if same patients posed different feet position on the examination of 1 min, 1 hour and 2 hours after injection in the lymphoscintigraphy which is evaluating lymphatic flow of patients with lymphedema and analyzing amount of intake by lymphatic system, maximum error value represented 25.8% due to attenuation of soft tissue and bone, and PASW (Predictive Analytics Software) showed that fixed and unfixed feet position was different each other. And difference of distance between detector and feet and change of count values by difference of examination beginning time after injection influence on quantitative analysis results partially. Therefore, we'll make an effort to fix feet position and make the most of fixing board in lymphoscintigraphy with quantitative analysis.

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Evaluation of the Image Quality According to the Pre-set Method in PET/CT Image (PET/CT 영상 획득 시 사전설정법 차이에 따른 영상 질 평가)

  • Park, Sun-Myung;Lee, Hyuk;Hong, Gun-Chul;Chung, Eun-Kyung;Choi, Choon-Ki;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: The result of exam using an imaging device is very closely related with the image quality. Moreover, this image quality can be changed according to the condition of image acquisition and evaluation method. In this study, we evaluated the image quality according to the difference of pre-set method in PET/CT image. Materials & Methods: PET/CT Discovery STe16 (GE Healthcare, Milwaukee, USA), Chest PET phantom (Experiment 1) and 94 NEMA phantom (Experiment 2) were used. Phantom were filled with $^{18}F$-FDG maintaining hot sphere and background ratio to 4:1. In the case of experiment 1, we set the radio activity concentration on 3.5, 6.0, 8.6 kBq/mL. In the case of experiment 2, we set the radio activity concentration on 3.3, 5.5, 7.7, 9.9, 12.1, 16.5 kBq/mL. All experiments were performed with the time-set method for 2 minutes 30 seconds per frame and the count-set method with one hundred million counts in 3D mode after CT transmission scan. For the evaluation of the image quality, we compared each results by using the NECR and SNR. Results: In the experiment 1, both the NECR and SNR were increased as radioactivity concentration getting increased. The NECR was shown as 53.7, 66.9, 91.4. and SNR was shown as 7.9, 10.0, 11.7. Both the NECR and SNR were increased in time-set method. But the count-set method's pattern was not similar with the time-set method. The NECR was shown as 53.8, 69.1, 97.8, and SNR was shown as 14.1, 14.7 14.4. The SNR was not increased in count-set method. In experiment 2, results of both the NECR and SNR were shown as 45.1, 70.6, 95.3, 115.6, 134.6, 162.2 and 7.1, 8.8, 10.6, 11.5, 12.7, 14.0. These results were shown similar patten with the experiment 1. Moreover, when the count-set method was applied, the NECR was shown as 42.1, 67.3, 92.1, 112.2, 130.7, 158.7, and SNR was shown as 15.2, 15.9, 15.6, 15.4, 15.5, 14.9. The NECR was increased but SNR was not shown same pattern. Conclusion: Increment of administered radioactivity improves the quality of image unconcerned with the pre-set method. However, NECR was not influenced by increment of total acquisition counts through simple increasing scan duration without increment of administered activity. In case of count-set method, the SNR was shown similar value despite of increment of radioactivity. So, the administered activity is more important than the scan duration. And we have to consider that evaluation of image quality using only SNR may not be appropriate.

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Study on Forage Cropping System Adapted to Soil Characteristics in Reclaimed Tidal Land (간척지 토양특성에 알맞은 사료작물 작부체계 연구)

  • Yang, Chang-Hyu;Lee, Jang-Hee;Kim, Sun;Jeong, Jae-Hyeok;Baek, Nam-Hyun;Choi, Weon-Young;Lee, Sang-Bok;Kim, Young-Doo;Kim, Si-Ju;Lee, Gyeong-Bo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.385-392
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to find out the optimum cropping system for the stable production of forage crops in the newly reclaimed land located at Gwanghwal and Gyehwa region of Saemangum reclaimed tide land from October, 2009 to October, 2011. Whole crop barley (WCB), Rye, Italyan-ryegrass (IRG) as winter crops and Corn, Sorghum${\times}$sudangrass hybrid (SSH) as summer crops were cultivated. Soil chemical properties, nutrient uptake, feed value, growth and yield were examinated. The testing soil was showed saline alkali soil where the contents of organic matter, available phosphate and exchangeable calcium were very low, while exchangeable sodium and magnesium were higher. Changes of soil salinity during the growing season of forage crops were less than 0.2%, and the growth of forage crops was not affected by salt injury. Standing rates of winter crops were higher in the order of Rye, WCB, and IRG, while the dry matter yield of winter crops was higher in the order of IRG, Rye and WCB. The highest crude protein (CP) content was recorded in IRG, and total digestive nutrients (TDN) contents were increased in the order of WCB, IRG, and Rye. The TDN content was higher in corn, whereas other feed value was higher in SSH. The content of mineral nutrients on stem, leaf and grain in IRG, Corn were high. After experiment pH was lowed, contents of exchangeable magnesium, sodium and organic matter were decreased while contents of total nitrogen, available phosphate and exchangeable potassium, calcium were increased. Winer crops and summer crops after continually cultivating in cropping system, fresh matter yield increased, compared to WCB-Corn (74,740 kg $ha^{-1}$), IRG-SSH 10%, IRG-Corn 7%, Rye-SSH 6%, Rye-Corn and WCB-SSH 3%. Dry matter yield increased, compared to WCB-Corn (20,280 kg $ha^{-1}$), IRG-SSH 7%, Rye-SSH 6%, IRG-Corn/Rye-Corn/WCB-SSH 3%. The TDN yield increased, compared to WCB-Corn (13,830 kg $ha^{-1}$), IRG-SSH 2%, WCB-SSH and IRG-Corn 1%. Therefore, we suggest that the crop combination of IRG-SSH and WCB-SSH would be preferred for silage stable production.

Development of smart education-based teaching and learning plans and a smart textbook for 'healthy diet and meal plans' unit in 「Technology·Home Economics」 (중학교 「기술·가정」의 '건강한 식생활과 식사 구성' 단원에 적용한 스마트 교수·학습 과정안과 교재 개발)

  • Choi, Song Eun;Chae, Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.85-114
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    • 2014
  • The main purpose of this study was to develop teaching and learning plans and a smart textbook for food and nutrition education in Home Economics focusing on 'healthy diet and meal plans' unit in "Technology home Economics" textbooks for 7th graders to evaluate the effectiveness of the instruction conducted with the smart textbook. The content of the study to achieve the purpose is as follows: First, design a smart education-based teaching and learning curriculum for food and nutrition education in Home Economics, focusing on 'healthy diet and meal plans' unit. Second, develop a smart textbook for food and nutrition education based on the teaching and learning curriculum, using a smart content authoring tool. Third, evaluate the effectiveness of the instruction after applying the curriculum in real classroom situations. The results of this study were as follows: First, teaching and learning plans and materials were developed for two units, 'issues regarding teenagers' diet' and 'implementation of a healthy and balanced diet', under 'teenagers' life'. The first unit, 'issues regarding teenagers' diet', dealt with topics such as teenagers' dietary behaviors, nutrition, and health. Learning objectives for this unit were to help students identify and evaluate their own dietary behaviors. The second unit, 'implementation of a healthy and balanced diet', encouraged students to diagnose problems with their diet and plan nutrient rich meals. The objectives for this unit were to help students implement a healthy and balanced diet by providing them with nutrition and dietary guidelines for Koreans, sample meal plans, and guidelines for developing healthy eating habits for teenagers. In order to develop a teaching and learning plans to achieve these objectives, teaching and learning materials including inquiry tasks, materials for group activities, multimedia, applications and various pop-up learning materials were developed. Second, a smart textbook using DocZoom, which was a smart content authoring tool was developed. The textbook dealt with issues regarding teenagers' diet and implementation of a healthy and balanced diet. Multimedia material used in the textbook come from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety's food and nutrition education web sites and other sources. To develop student-oriented material, relevant video clips were added to the smart textbook to motivate students and enhance their interest in the course. Third, the outcome of this study indicated that the instruction using teaching and learning plans and learning materials with the smart textbook was effective for enhancing students' interest in Home Economics classes (t-value=-3.99, p<.001), creating enthusiasm for learning(t-value = -2.61, p<.05), encouraging self-directed and independent learning(t-value = -4.77, p<.001), and improving students' interest in food and nutrition courses(t-value = -3.83, p<.001). The students' evaluation of the instruction were as follows: the instruction using teaching and learning plans and learning materials with smart textbooks, instead of paper textbooks, helped them save time looking for learning materials; students evaluated that it was easier for them to see and understand video clips and charts. In addition, most students answered that instruction with smart textbooks were more fun and convenient, and they agreed that the courses enhanced their learning experience.

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A Study on Foreign Air Operator Certificate in light of the Convention on International Civil Aviation (시카고협약체계에서의 외국 항공사에 대한 운항증명제도 연구)

  • Lee, Koo-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.31-64
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    • 2015
  • The Chicago Convention and Annexes have become the basis of aviation safety regulations for every contracting state. Generally, aviation safety regulations refer to the SARPs provided in the Annexes of the Chicago Convention. In order to properly reflect international aviation safety regulations, constant studies of the aviation fields are of paramount importance. Treaties duly concluded and promulgated under the Constitution and the generally recognized rules of international law shall have the same effect as the domestic laws of the Republic of Korea. Each contracting state to the Chicago Convention should meet ICAO SARPs about AOC and FAOC. According to ICAO SARPs, Civil Aviation Authorities shall issue AOC to air carriers of the state, but don't require to issue for foreign air carrier. However some contracting states of the Chicago Convention issue FAOC and/or Operations Specifications for the foreign operators. This FAOC is being expanded from USA to the other contracting states. Foreign operators have doubly burden to implement AOC of the ICAO SARPs because FAOC is an additional requirement other than that prescribed by the ICAO SARPs In Article 33, the Chicago Convention stipulates that each contracting state shall recognize the validity of the certificates of airworthiness and licenses issued by other contracting states as long as they are equal to or above the minimum standards of the ICAO. In ICAO Annex 6, each contracting state shall recognize as valid an air operator certificate issued by another contracting state, provided that the requirements under which the certificate was issued are at least equal to the applicable Standards specified in this Annex. States shall establish a programme with procedures for the surveillance of operations in their territory by a foreign operator and for taking appropriate action when necessary to preserve safety. Consequently, it is submitted that the unilateral action of the states issuing the FAOC to the foreign air carriers of other states is against the Convention. Hence, I make some proposals on the FAOC as an example of comprehensive problem solving after comparative study with ICAO SARPs and the contracting state's regulations. Some issues must be improved and I have made amendment proposals to meet ICAO SARPs and to strengthen aviation development. Operators should be approved by FAOC at most 190 if all states require FAOC. Hence, it is highly recommended to eliminate the FAOC or reduce the restrictions it imposes. In certain compliance-related issues, delayed process shall not be permitted to flight operations. In addition, it is necessary for the ICAO to provide more unified and standardized guidelines in order to avoid confusion or bias regarding the arbitrary expansion of the FAOC. For all the issue mentioned above, I have studied the ICAO SARPs and some state's regulation regarding FAOC, and suggested some proposals on the FAOC as an example of comprehensive problem solving. I hope that this paper is 1) to help understanding about the international issue, 2) to help the improvement of korean aviation regulations, 3) to help compliance with international standards and to contribute to the promotion of aviation safety, in addition.

A Coexistence Model in a Dynamic Platform with ICT-based Multi-Value Chains: focusing on Healthcare Service (ICT 기반 다중 가치사슬의 동적 플랫폼에서의 공존 모형: 의료서비스를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyun Jung;Chang, Yong Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.69-93
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    • 2017
  • The development of ICT has leaded the diversification and changes of supplies and demands in markets. It also caused the creations of a variety of values which are differentiated from those in the existing market. Therefore, a new-type market is created, which can include multi-value chains which are from ICT-based created markets as well as the existing markets. We defined the platform as the new-type market. In the platform, the multi-value chains can be coexisted with multi-values. In true market, when a new-type value chain entered into an existing market, it is general that it can be conflicted with the existing value chain in the market. The conflicted problem among multi-value chains in a market is caused by the sharing of limited market resources like suppliers, consumers, services or products among the value chains. In other words, if there are multi-value chains in the platform, then it is possible to have conflictions, overlapping, creations or losses of values among the value chains. To solve the problem, we introduce coexistence factors to reduce the conflictions to reach market equilibrium in the platform. In the other hand, it is possible to lead the creations of differentiated values from the existing market and to augment the total market values in the platform. In the early era of ICT development, ICT was introduced for improvement of efficiency and effectiveness of the value chains in the existing market. However, according to the changed role of ICT from the supporter to the promotor of the market, ICT became to lead the variations of the value chains and creations of various values in the markets. For instance, Uber Taxi created a new value chain with ICT-based new-type service or products with new resources like new suppliers and consumers. When Uber and Traditional Taxi services are playing at the same time in Taxi service platform, it is possible to create values or make conflictions among values between the new and old value chains. In this research, like Uber and traditional taxi services, if there are conflictions among the multi-value chains, then it is necessary to minimize the conflictions in the platform for the coexistence of multi-value chains which can create the value-added values in the platform. So, it is important to predict and discuss the possible conflicted problems between new and old value chains. The confliction should be solved to reach market equilibrium with multi-value chains in the platform. That is, we discuss the possibility of the coexistence of multi-value chains in the platform which are comprised of a variety of suppliers and customers. To do this, especially we are focusing on the healthcare markets. Nowadays healthcare markets are popularized in global market as well as domestic. Therefore, there are a lot of and a variety of healthcare services like Traditional-, Tele-, or Intelligent- healthcare services and so on. It shows that there are multi-suppliers, -consumers and -services as components of each different value chain in the same platform. The platform can be shared by different values that are created or overlapped by confliction and loss of values in the value chains. In this research, as was said, we focused on the healthcare services to show if a platform can be shared by different value chains like traditional-, tele-healthcare and intelligent-healthcare services and products. Additionally, we try to show if it is possible to increase the value of each value chain as well as the total value of the platform. As the result, it is possible to increase of each value of each value chain as well as the total value in the platform. Finally, we propose a coexistence model to overcome such problems and showed the possibility of coexistence between the value chains through experimentation.

An Overview of the Rationale of Monetary and Banking Intervention: The Role of the Central Bank in Money and Banking Revisited (화폐(貨幣)·금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)에 대한 고찰(考察) : 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 존립근거(存立根據)에 대한 개관(槪觀))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 1990
  • This paper reviews the rationale of monetary and banking intervention by an outside authority, either the government or the central bank, and seeks to delineate clearly the optimal limits to the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway in Korea as well as on a global scale. Furthermore, this paper seeks to establish an objective and balanced view on the role of the central bank, especially in light of the current discussion on the restructuring of Korea's central bank, which has been severely contaminated by interest-group politics. The discussion begins with the recognition that the modern free banking school and the new monetary economics are becoming formidable challenges to the traditional role of the government or the central bank in the monetary and banking sector. The paper reviews six arguments that have traditionally been presented to support intervention: (1) the possibility of an over-issue of bank notes under free banking instead of central banking; (2) externalities in and the public good nature of the use of money; (3) economies of scale and natural monopoly in producing money; (4) the need for macro stabilization policy due to the instability of the real sector; (5) the external effects of bank failure due to the inherent instability of the existing banking system; and (6) protection for small banknote users and depositors. Based on an analysis of the above arguments, the paper speculates on the optimal role of the government or central bank in the monetary and banking system and the optimal degree of monetary and banking deregulation. By contrast to the arguments for free banking or laissez-faire monetary systems, which become fashionable in recent years, monopoly and intervention by the government or central bank in the outside money system can be both necessary and optimal. In this case, of course, an over-issue of fiat money may be possible due to political considerations, but this issue is beyond the scope of this paper. On the other hand, the issue of inside monies based on outside money could indeed be provided for optimally under market competition by private institutions. A competitive system in issuing inside monies would help realize, to the maxim urn extent possible, external economies generated by using a single outside money. According to this reasoning, free banking activities will prevail in the inside money system, while a government monopoly will prevail in the outside money system. This speculation, then, also implies that the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway should and most likely will be limited to the inside money system, which could be liberalized to the fullest degree. It is also implied that it will be impractical to deregulate the outside money system and to allow market competition to provide outside money, in accordance with the arguments of the free banking school and the new monetary economics. Furthermore, the role of the government or central bank in this new environment will not be significantly different from their current roles. As far as the supply of fiat money continues to be monopolized by the government, the control of the supply of base money and such related responsibilities as monetary policy (argument(4)) and the lender of the last resort (argument (5)) will naturally be assigned to the outside money supplier. However, a mechanism for controlling an over-issue of fiat money by a monopolistic supplier will definitely be called for (argument(1)). A monetary policy based on a certain policy rule could be one possibility. More importantly, the deregulation of the inside money system would further increase the systemic risk inherent in the current fractional banking system, while enhancing the efficiency of the system (argument (5)). In this context, the role of the lender of the last resort would again become an instrument of paramount importance in alleviating liquidity crises in the early stages, thereby disallowing the possibility of a widespread bank run. Similarly, prudential banking supervision would also help maintain the safety and soundness of the fully deregulated banking system. These functions would also help protect depositors from losses due to bank failures (argument (6)). Finally, these speculations suggest that government or central bank authorities have probably been too conservative on the issue of the deregulation of the financial system, beyond the caution necessary to preserve system safety. Rather, only the fullest deregulation of the inside money system seems to guarantee the maximum enjoyment of external economies in the single outside money system.

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An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Studies on the Interspecific Grafting of Almond (Almond의 종간접목(種間接木)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Kyo Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 1979
  • Almonds are one of the oldest sources of food and oil for man as used the ice cream, candy, roast, salting, chocolate, breads, backed, cookies, and flavoring ect. So, we wish to plant Almond in our country at the most parts of mountains. In this purpose we must be find out of both root stock of more compatibility and new techniques of grafting was rather simples as compared with the many steps of machinary involved today. This investigation has been carried out to reveral compatibility and practical controls of environment effectives involved in the occurence of each difference combination results in interspecific grafting of Almonds on the root stock of Prunus mandshurica and Prunus persica as materials during the 9 months period from March to November in 1978. With these selected scions were 4 varieties of Almond employing as the Hal1's hardy, Nonpareil, and Thompson grafted in the polyethylene green house with almost identical provision made for effective controls of automatical supplying to heating and mistsprayers as the $22{\sim}25^{\circ}C$ of temperature and 70~90% humidity. Following results have been obtained. Those environmental controls were more effective and practical to grafting unions and success by means veneer-grafting at the green house. 1. Hall's hardy Almond grafted on the root stock of Prunus persica was more compatibility than Prunus mandshurica. 2. The survival percentages as follows of the 95.33% of Hall's hardy/Prunus persica and 92.66% of Hall's hardy/Prunus mandshurica. And those were no significant between root stock of both species. 3. The 3 varieties of sweet Almond grafted on the root stock of P. mandshurica. And those were no significant between root stock of both species. 4. And the survival percentages as fellows. Thompson 92.66%, Nonpareil 90.66% and Kapareil 89.33% those grafted on the root stock of Prunus persica. 5. And then the survival percentage of interspecific grafts on the root Prunus mandshurica as follows of the materials of Thompson 89.66%, Nonpareil 87%, Kapareil 85%. 6. The analysis of variance were no significant among the interactions between 3 varieties Almond and 2 species of root stock plants. 7. And the growth of interspecific grafts of the high 161cm, diameter 12.3mm and length of roots 21.5cm growth as the Hall's hardy Almond grafted on the root stock of Prunus persica. 8. The root stock plants of Prunus mandshurica more effected to 6~8 days early developed leafing of scions and dark green colour than the Prunus persica. 9. The identical provision of automatic systems was more effective to graft unions and grafting process. 10. The veneer-grafting method at the green house was more effective and practical method for the mass production of Almond grafts.

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