• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.124-127
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• 2017

선박에서 배출되는 환경오염 물질 및 온실가스에 대한 규제가 강화됨에 따라, 환경오염 물질 및 온실가스의 배출과 직접적으로 관련있는 연료 소모량을 줄이려는 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 연료 소모량을 줄이기 위한 방안 중 하나는 환경 및 기상 예보를 이용하여 연료가 가장 적게 소모되는 항로를 찾는 것이다. 기존 연구에서는 연료 소모량을 주된 목적함수로 최소화 하되, 도착 시간에 대한 조건을 평가하기 위해 도착 시간의 기댓값을 계산하고 추가적인 목적함수로 고려하는 경우가 많았다. 그러나 선박 운항 예측 시 적용되는 환경 외란 정보는 상당한 불확실성을 포함하고, 이로 인해 발생하는 운항 속도 및 도착 시간에 대한 불확실성도 상당히 클 수 있기 때문에, 도착 시간의 기댓값뿐만 아니라 도착 시간에 대한 불확실성을 기반으로 제한 시간 내에 선박이 도착할 확률을 정량적으로 평가하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 다목적 최적화 기법을 이용해 도착 시간의 기댓값과 연료 소모량에 대한 Pareto set을 구하되, 환경 외란으로부터 발생하는 도착 시간의 불확실성을 계산하여, 제한 시간 내에 선박이 도착할 확률을 계산하고 이를 항로 최적화 시 적용한다. 제안하는 방법의 유용성을 검증하기 위해 실제 환경에 가까운 맵을 기반으로 부산-도쿄 간의 항로를 최적화하고, 그 결과에 대해 논의한다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.102-108
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to develop a proactive methodology for disruption due to uncertainty in vessels' arrival time. As worldwide imports and exports increased rapidly, the importance of berth planning in container terminals has increased accordingly. Since the berth plan determines the capacity of the container terminal, it aims to maximize efficiency by minimizing the time and space gap between the vessels. In reality, several uncertainties disrupt the initial berth plan resulting in economic losses. In this study, we propose a robust berth plan for preventing disruption.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.1110-1111
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• 2023

본 논문은 해외 배송 화물에 대하여 실시간 위치와 정확한 도착 예정 시간을 제공하기 위하여 유가와 기상 정보 등 다양한 변수가 선박 항로에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 기존의 ETA 예측 방법은 GPS 정보와 수기 데이터를 기반으로 하여 낮은 정확도를 보였으나, 극복하기 위한 방안으로 기상 상황 혹은 세계 유가 변동 변수까지 고려하여 인공지능 모델을 구축하였다. 선박의 도착 예측 시간 정확도 향상과 불확실성 해소를 주된 목표로 하며 이를 토대로 육·해상 통합 서비스를 개발하고자 한다. 이러한 예측 정보는 선사가 운영을 최적화하고 비용을 절감하는 데 도움을 주며, 소비자들은 신뢰할 수 있는 정보를 통해 불편과 손실을 최소화할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.36-50
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• 2006

It is required to transport a considerable amount of wartime strategic materials from US to Korea via airlift operation. This study attempts to formulate the wartime airlift operation model and evaluate the airlift capability of mobilized resources, including civil aircrafts. Although an airlift plan has been annually updated by the Korea Transportation Command, it is necessary to evaluate the feasibility through simulation due to uncertainties in the process of airlift operation. Uncertain parameters are as follows; the inter-arrival time of materials in the US airfields, loading and unloading times, the distribution of aircraft's initial location at the time of mobilization order. The simulation is executed under two scenarios and the results are analyzed through a sensitivity analysis. Simulation result shows that the irregularity of inter-arrival time and the number of mobilized civil aircrafts are the most critical factors in influencing airlift capability.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.493-501
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• 2014

An automated lifting vehicle(ALV) used in an automated container terminal is a type of unmanned vehicle that can self-lift a container as well as self-transport it to a destination. To operate a fleet of ALVs efficiently, one needs to be able to determine a minimum-time route to a given destination whenever an ALV is to start its transport job. To find a route free from any collision or deadlock, the occupation time of the ALV on each segment of the route should be carefully scheduled to avoid any such hazard. However, it is not easy because not only the travel times of ALVs are uncertain due to traffic condition but also the operation times of cranes en route are not predicted precisely. In this paper, we propose a routing method based on an ant colony optimization algorithm that takes into account these uncertainties. The result of simulation experiment shows that the proposed method can effectively find good routes under uncertainty.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.471-478
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• 2003

In the Signalized Intersection, the capacity analysis is conducted with a large amount of input data such as road way, traffic and signal condition. but the level of service(LOS) is determined by delay estimated as a measure of effectiveness (MOE) based on this procedure. However, It is under the circumstances which are not considered for the errors caused by the uncertainty of input data in the field(the turing volumes, lane geometry, signal timing, grade of approach lane, percentage heavy vehicles, peak hour factor and arrival type etc.) as become the bases in the determination of the capacity and LOS. It includes the problem of reliability which is not verified for the capacity and LOS estimated. So, this study is to suggest the minimization of their influences by examining whether the uncertainty of input data such as the traffic volume, percentage of heavy vehicles and roadway geometry on the approach lane in the intersection under the study affects the capacity analysis and LOS determination.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.1-13
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• 2015

Travellers consider extra travel time to be arriving their destination because of uncertainty of travel. So it is important to make predictable highway by providing information of travel time variability to traveller so as to enhance level of service at highway. In order to make predictable highway, it is necessary to develope measures of travel time variability that travellers can easily understand. Recently advanced country including the United States, travel time variability index are actively studied. In earlier study, 95percentile of travel time is considered to be most important calculation index of travel time variability. In this study, is has focused on the propriety analysis of 95percentile of travel time in domestic transportation environment. Result of analysis, All of measures(80percentile of travel time, 90percentile of travel time, 95percentile of travel time) show the tendency to increase when case of weather factor occur compare to normal condition under LOS A~D. Especially 95percentile of travel time increased sensitively.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.135-150
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• 2002

The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.