• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.283-294
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• 2018

An accurate pedestrian-delay model is essential for the pedestrian-oriented evaluation of signalized intersection (SI). The crossing behaviors of pedestrians at signalized pedestrian crosswalks (SPCs) are various, and their arrival behaviors consist of two types, random and platoon. It is natural, hence, that the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival should be considered in order to estimate accurate pedestrian delay. Despite this necessity, a simple pedestrian-delay model that cannot explain these behaviors of pedestrian movements is still recommended in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). For these reasons, a pedestrian-delay model, suitable for various SPCs and SIs, is required to make pedestrian-oriented decisions on the design and operation of various SPCs and SIs. This paper proposes a novel pedestrian-delay model that is based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival. The proposed model consists of two sub models: the one for SPC and the other for SI. The SPC delay model was developed based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing during pedestrian green time. The SI delay model was designed based on the behaviors of pedestrian crossing and platoon arrival. The results of a numerical simulation showed that the proposed delay model can successfully overcome the under- and overestimation problems of the HCM model with explaining various behaviors of pedestrian crossing and arrival.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.125-134
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• 2010

It is occurred bus arrival time errors when a bus arrives at a bus stop because of a variety of traffic condition such as traffic signal cycle, the time to get on and off a bus, a bus-only lane and so on. In this paper, bus delay time which is occurred as the result of traffic condition was estimated with Markov Chain process and bus arrival time at each bus stop was predicted with it. As the result of the study, it is confirmed to improve accuracy than the method of bus arrival time prediction with existing method (weighed moving average method) in case predicting bus arrival time using 7 by 7 and 9 by 9 matrixes.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2009

Bus delay time is occurred as the result of traffic condition and important factor to predict bus arrival time. In this paper, transition probability matrixes between bus stops are made by using Markov Chain and it is predicted bus delay time with them. As the results of study, it is confirmed a possibility of adapting the assumption which it has same bus transition probability between stops through paired-samples T-test and overcame the limitation of exiting studies in case there is no scheduled bus arrival time for each stops with using bus interval time. Therefore it will be possible to predict bus arrival time with Markov Chain.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.101-111
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• 2017

This study propose a method to predict the bus arrival time by considering the signal delay time which is an element which can not be considered in the current bus arrival prediction information generation algorithm. In order to consider the signal delay time, travel time is divided into three components: service time, cruising travel time, and signal delay time. Signal delay time was estimated using intersection arrival time and TOD. The results show that most of the errors that occurred in predicting the arrival time are within about 30 seconds. Some of the estimates have large errors due to the nature of this methodology that uses the estimated value of the intersection arrival time rather than the observation value. It is also difficult to predict the arrival time of the express buses using this method. Future studies such as improving this through real-time location information will greatly improve the accuracy of the methodology.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.1D
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• pp.13-22
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• 2012

The 119 emergency rescue-aid service operated by Korean government is a very valuable in a society and its importance is growing in Korea as an aging society. Especially, the emergency vehicle's arrival time to accidents place is an important variable which affects initial emergency measure for patients and it depends on the road network attributes, such as emergency service station's location, accessibility to accidents place and so on. This study aims to analysis the emergency vehicles' arrival delay and the dispatch station in the viewpoint of efficiency utilizing the real rescue-aid activity data. We analyzed the dispatch distribution of the emergency rescue-aid service at first. And we analyzed high accident rate locations not involved in the fixed radius of rescue-aid service stations and display GIS map showing regions have been delayed. The input data of the road network speed is based on the KTDB (Korea Transportation Database) and historical rescue-aid data is from Gyeongsangbuk-do's fire service headquarters.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.53-74
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• 1997

신호연동화모형에서 통과폭모형은 지체를 최소화하지 못하고 지체도모형은 좌회전현시순서를 최적화하지 못한다. 이러한 모형의 단점을 극복하고자 개발된 KS_SIGNAL은 지체를 최소화하는 신호연동화모형이지만 지체를 산정하는데 있어 많은 한계를 갖고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기존에 개발된 KS_SIGNAL의 지체모형을 개선하여 보다 우수한 연동신호시간과 현시순서를 산정해주는 신호최적화모형(KS_SIGNAL II)을 개발하여 FORTRAN 언어로 전산화하였다. 개발된 모형은 다양한 평가를 통하여 기존 모형들보다 전반적으로 우수한 것으로 입증되었다. 본 모형을 통하여 차량 출발 및 도착형태에 따른 대기차량 소거시간을 고려하는 옵셋 산정이 가능해져 지체를 최소화하는 간선도로의 신호최적화모형으로 활용될 경우 도로기능제고 및 지체도 감소에 의한 편익을 얻을 수 있다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.131-139
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• 1999

The quality of progression at signalized intersection has the largest potential effect. TRANSYT-7F is widely used to estimate the signal progression delay, but the progress of collecting and executing the compute program appears to be rather cumbersome. The research is to develop the analytical and progressing platoon delay model that is as simple as the methodology of HCM and familiar with the output of simulation model. The general approach to this research was conducted to examine the Rouphail and NCHRP 339 methodology together with the existing progression delay model (TRANSYT-7F. HCM). The scope is contained to be applicable only to cycles with no overflow queue and to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of changes in the quality of traffic signal progression on stopped delay and to be analyzed a simple mathematical method. The principle assumption for this model is that secondary flows is dispersed and partly mixed with average flow of the primary progressed flow. A second assumption is that through flow is consisted with the part of saturation flow at the front of it and the part of average flow at the rear of it. The delay equations vary for two arrival. The conclusion of this study could be summarized as 1)The evaluation of this model was consistently similar to that of TRANSYT-7F, 2) Platoon pattern has the real traffic flow characteristics. 3) The computing process of progression delay is made to have simple logic and easy calculation by integration, 4) This model could be estimated to be applied in almost all case.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.83-103
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• 1997

교차로 지체를 추정하기 위해서는 대기행렬 모형이 적합한데 모든 대기시스템은 시 간의 함수로 운영되므로 우리는 분석하고자 하는 시스템이 가변상태인지 또는 안정상태인지 를 먼저 결정하여야 한다. 신호화된 교차로에 유입·유출되는 특히 유입교통량은 시간대별 변화가 심하다. 미국 HCM에서는 이를 15분 단위로 분석하도록 제안하였으나 신호교차로 체계의 정밀 분석을 위해서는 만족스럽지 못한 시간단위이다. 이러한 문제점을 극복하기 위 해서는 시스템이 안정상태가 아닌 가정으로 접근하여야 하며, 더 나아가 Dynamic한 분석이 요구된다. 안정상태의 지체는 Webster를 비롯한 여러 학자들에 의해 광범위하게 연구되어 왔다. 그러나 그들이 갖는 가정은 일반적으로 비현실적이어서 정밀한 지체추정은 실제로 가 능하지 않다. 안정상태 가정하에서 해법의 결점은 도착교통량이 용량에 다다를수록 더욱 심 하게 되어 비현실적인 지체예측을 하게 된다. 본 논문은 기존 분석방법론의 제반 한계성과 제약성을 검토하고 현실적인 교차로 지체모형을 개발하기 위해 고려되어져햐 할 변수들을 정립하고자 한다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.379-390
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• 1994

The recent study of the delay models have assumed random arrival which has a constant average flow rate throughout the cycle. However, where signals are spaced closely together or form part of progressive system, platoon flows are common and more closely represent reality. In such cases, those results are quite different pattern of estimated delay from that of observed one. In order to solve this problem, the 1985 HCM takes Progression Adjustment Factor (PAF) into account. In the 1985 HCM, however, it has deficiencies in defining and applying it, such as platoon ratio ($R_p$) and platoon arrival type. The Purpose of this study is to investigate theoretically the predictive ability of the individual models concerned through comparing the estimated delay and PAF suggested by NCHRP Report 339, KHCM or USHCM (1985) with the observed obtained by field survey at a signalized intersection.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.374-390
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• 2015

This research shows the relationship between the number of trains and the probability of trains with arrival delay and suggests way to estimate the benefits of improved punctuality in a bottleneck section of the Gyeongbu Line. The arrival delays of high-speed and conventional trains were estimated using the train operation data of KORAIL. Linear regression models for the probability of trains with arrival delay by train type are presented in this paper. The probabilities of trains with arrival delay were more affected by the number of conventional trains than by the number of high-speed rail trains. For the empirical analysis, a project for increasing the capacity in the Seoul~Geumcheongu office section was tested. The benefits of the improved punctuality were estimated to be 4.2~4.5 billion Korean won every year. This research has some limitations but it can help evaluate more precisely the feasibility of the project of increasing the capacity in bottleneck sections.