• Title/Summary/Keyword: 델파이 방법

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Case Study on ATM Equipments by Delphi Methods (델파이 방법 적용 사례 연구 - 초고속망 장비 관련 시장 예측과 관련하여 -)

  • 김범환;박종봉;김기영
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.102-112
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    • 2000
  • The authors of this paper chose the delphi methods to investigate into several areas to understand where the pressures for ATM equipments will emerge in the prescribed time horizon of 1999 to 2010- a period just beyond the current manufacturing and deployment schedules of most companies. The areas studied are the office buildings and interoffice connectivity as well as switches, and finally transmission facilities. This paper is matched into these areas with the results of a Delphi study of 14 respondents from the common carriers like Korea Telecom and national institutions like ETRI. The investigators calculated the average answer for each question and presents the questionnaires for a second round to individuals who had responded to the first round of questioning. As a result of this paper, the authors reached some conclusions regarding what item will be predominant in each of the areas studied as well as the promoters and barriers for ATM deployment and some suggestions are provided for corporate managers and policy makers. This Delphi study did not provide a strong and uniform forecast that ATM would dominate the marketplace in the early years of next millenium, as many had anticipated. Whether it is in he area of office connection, enterprise backbone, switches and transmission facilities, respondents predicted the patterns which indicate a movement toward higher-bandwidth connectivity, although not necessarily provided with ATM networks. A general pattern is that the predictions for ATM deployment in each of the areas were strong from the year 1999 to 2010.

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Development and Applying of an Evaluation Index for Selecting Pet Insects Using AHP (AHP를 활용한 애완곤충 종 선발의 평가지표 개발 및 적용)

  • Kim, So-Yun;Park, Haechul;Song, Jeong-Hun;Roh, Seung Jin;Kim, Seonghyun
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.169-175
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    • 2020
  • We developed an evaluation index for selecting pet insect species. As an expert opinion survey, the Delphi method was used to establish evaluation items. Using AHP (analytic hierarchy process), evaluation criteria for selecting pet insects were proposed. And then based on application testing, we established a scoring system.

Indicators for identification of urban flood vulnerability (도시홍수취약성 평가 인자 선정)

  • Lee, Gyumin;Jun, Kyung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.88-88
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    • 2016
  • 최근 우리나라에서 발생한 홍수 중 많은 관심을 불러일으킨 2010년 광화문 일대와 2011년 강남역 일대 홍수의 주요 원인은 하천관리를 통하여 대응해온 지금까지의 홍수와는 달리 도시의 우수배제 기능이 높은 강도의 강우에 대응하지 못한 것으로 분석되고 있다. 도시내부에서 발생한 이 같은 홍수는 도시의 기능에 심각한 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 거주민의 안전과도 밀접하게 연관된다. 본 연구에서는 도시의 기능과 거주민의 안전을 우선적으로 고려한 홍수 취약성평가 인자를 선정하고자 한다. 기존의 여러 홍수취약성 연구들에서는 취약성을 평가함에 있어 피해금액을 기준으로 적용하는 경우가 많이 있다. 장기적인 홍수대응, 완화 정책의 구상에 있어 예상되는 피해금액은 중요한 지표라고 볼 수 있다. 그러나 이 방법으로는 도시에서 발생 가능한 피해를 모두 반영하는데 한계가 있다. 도로, 지하철, 철도 등의 교통수단이 침수되는 경우, 피해회복을 위한 비용뿐만 아니라, 도시기능에 심각한 영향을 주어 도시의 생산성, 안정성에 막대한 피해를 남길 수 있다. 따라서 피해금액의 규모에 대한 접근만으로는 도시에서 발생한 홍수에 의해 피해를 받는 취약요인을 적극적으로 반영할 수 없다. 본 연구에서는 도시홍수 피해양상과 이에 대한 대응 방법 등 홍수의 물리적 위험성 뿐 아니라 홍수와 연관된 사회적인 요인들을 반영한 취약성 평가인자를 구성하기위하여 인자간의 인과관계 등을 고려하여 인자의 범위를 규정하고 델파이 설문조사와 문헌 연구를 통하여 전문가 의견을 수집, 분석하였다. 홍수취약성에 영향을 주는 요인들을 크게 3가지 그룹으로 정리하여 도시구조물, 거주민, 위험요인으로 구분하고 각 항목별로 영향인자을 선정하였다. 결정된 인자는 2011년 홍수피해가 발생한 도림천 유역에 적용하여 홍수취약성 평가를 수행하고자 한다.

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Research on the Content to Develop Instructor's Certification for Software Education

  • Jun, Soo-Jin;Shim, Jae-Kwoun;Kim, Jeong-Rang
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.341-347
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose to discover the certification items and to study the content system for SW education instructors, including SW education based on basic teaching-learning capabilities and Computational Thinking(CT). To this end, SW education instructor qualification were divided into three classes using methods such as prior case studies, Delphi surveys, and expert meetings, and the certification evaluation areas were divided into large areas of 'Teaching and Learning Method' and 'Software Education' reflecting primary and secondary curriculum. Sub-areas and content elements for each series were set and verified through expert Delphi survey. Such research is expected to contribute to the spread and dissemination of SW education by being used meaningfully when establishing a system that fosters SW education instructors and maintains and manages the quality of instructors.

Derivation of core competencies of advanced practice dental hygienists in the elderly using the Delphi method (델파이 방법을 이용한 노인전문치과위생사 핵심역량 도출)

  • Lee, Sun-Mi;Won, Young-Soon;Kim, Hyeong-Mi;Sim, Seon-Ju;Lee, Jung-Hwa;Moon, Sang-Eun;Kim, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: This study derived the core competencies for developing a curriculum for advanced practice dental hygienists in the elderly. Methods: A Delphi survey was conducted thrice times with 12 subjects engaged in dental hygiene-related activities for the elderly. Results: The item with the highest average in each domain was 'understanding the elderly (mean=5.00)' in basic qualities and attitude competency, 'understanding the oral health characteristics of the elderly (mean=5.00)' in the job competency, and 'development and evaluation of oral health programs for the elderly (mean=4.75)' in job support competency. Conclusions: The core competencies of dental hygienists specializing in the elderly are divided into 3 'basic qualifications and attitude competencies', 'job competencies', and 'job support competencies' 27 sub-competencies are presented.

Identification of Emerging Research at the national level: Scientometric Approach using Scopus (국가적 차원의 유망연구영역 탐색: Scopus 데이터베이스를 이용한 과학계량학적 접근)

  • Yeo, Woon-Dong;Sohn, Eun-Soo;Jung, Eui-Seob;Lee, Chang-Hoan
    • Journal of Information Management
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.95-113
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    • 2008
  • In todays environment in which scientific technologies are changing very fast than ever, companies have to monitor and search emerging technologies to gain competitiveness. Actually many nations try to do that. Most of them use Dephi approach based on experts review as a searching method. But experts review has been criticised for probability of inclination and its derivative problems in the sense that it is accomplished only by expert's subjectivity. To overcome such problems, we used Scientometric Method for identifying emerging technology that had been done by Delphi as a rule. We made three particular efforts in order to improve the Quality of the result. Firstly, we selected one alternative database between SCI and Scopus hoping to see evenly-distributing results in wide fields on the front burner. Secondly we used Fractional citation counting in counting citation number in the stage of linear regression analysis. Lastly, we verified Scientometric result with experts opinions to minimize probable errors in a Scientometric research. As a result, we derived 290 emerging technologies from Scientometric analysis with Scopus Database, and visualized them on 2-dimension map with data mining system named KnowledgeMatrix which was developed by KISTI.

Selection of Integrated Concepts Across Science and Humanities Using the Delphi Method (과학과 인문학의 통합개념 선정을 위한 델파이 연구)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Park, Jieun;Yoon, Heojeong;Park, Eunmi;Bang, Dami
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.549-558
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    • 2014
  • Integrated concepts that are broad enough to embrace facts, principles, laws, and concepts of multiple disciplines could become the core of integrated education. Integrated concept-centered education enables effective and practical learning. In this study, the Delphi Method was implemented targeting experts in science (physics, life science, chemistry, and earth science) and humanities (history, geology, economics, ethics, and politics) to find out the integrated concept that can be used to design the concept-centered integrated education in the Republic of Korea. 124 experts participated in this survey. Delphi survey was conducted for three rounds. In the first round, an open questionnaire was given to experts to collect feasible integrated concepts in each major field. Then, in the second round experts were asked to select integrated concepts that could be used practically in the field of their major. In the third round, the integrated concept with selection frequency over medium value were given. They were asked to evaluate the applicability of integrated concepts by using the Likert-scale questionnaire. Through this process, content validity was analyzed. As a result, five integrated concepts (change, interaction, space-time, energy, and equilibrium) were selected for the inter-science integration. And thirteen integrated concepts (conflict, community, relationship, structure, power, diversity, culture, change, society, interaction, freedom, justice, and equality) were chosen for the inter-humanities integration. Finally, for the science-humanities integration, seven integrated concepts (structure, diversity, change, interaction, cycle, system, and environment) were determined.

Development of a Lifestyle Redesign Program for College Students (대학생을 위한 라이프스타일 재설계 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Chun-Yeop;Park, Young-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.337-349
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    • 2021
  • This study tried to develop a lifestyle redesign program that can be applied to college students. For program development, the Delphi research method was implemented with 8 experts. Based on previous studies on lifestyle and time use, the first Delphi survey investigated the prioritization of occupations through evaluation instruments, lifestyle types, and living time survey tables. In the second Delphi survey, it was constructed based on the opinions of experts, and when the content validity ratio was low, it was reconstructed by modifying and supplementing it. In the third Delphi survey, while maintaining the framework of the secondary content, the experts' own responses from the second time and the second average score with other experts were presented together. As a result of this study, a program with an average score of 3.88~4.00, a content validity ratio of 1.00, and a convergence of 0.00 was finally derived. In the lifestyle redesign program for college students, the first step of the pre-intervention evaluation is to identify the lifestyle type, apply evaluation tools, and select occupations. In the second step, the lifestyle is redesigned by the intervention execution, and the facilitator intervenes to help college students do well their tasks. The program was developed by encouraging them to practice, checking the lifestyle type change as a result of the intervention in step 3, applying evaluation instruments after the intervention, and ending the program in the last step. This study provided a rationale for using lifestyle redesign program as an intervention to change their occupational performance patterns in order to successfully carry out the life they want.

Development of Item on Feeding Assessment for Children With Cerebral Palsy : Delphi Survey (뇌성마비 아동의 섭식 평가 항목 개발 : 델파이 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Min;Yoo, Eun Young;Park, Hae Yean;Hong, Ickpyo;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Kim, Jong-Bae
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2022
  • Objective : The purpose of this study is to establish the domain for assessment of feeding disorder with cerebral palsy. In addition, it is to develop item on feeding assessment for feeding disorder on children with cerebral palsy Methods : Factors to be included in the assessment of feeding disorders in children with cerebral palsy based on the ICF classification criteria constituted the assessment domain through literature review. Results : Assessment items of feeding disorders in children with cerebral palsy were categorized into 6 domains. These were systematized through expert advice, and through the first and second Delphi surveys, nine middle categories, 32 sub-categories, and 76 items were confirmed. Conclusions : The results of this study are useful for occupational therapists who want to check the current feeding function and activity level during therapeutic interventions for children with cerebral palsy who have feeding disorders.

A Study of Empirical Analysis on Drencher Facilities through Delphi and IPA Analysis (델파이분석과 IPA분석을 통한 드렌처설비의 실증적 분석 연구)

  • Soo Un O;Sung-Hoon Choa
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: In this study, the Drenzer facility, which is a facility installed to prevent the spread of fire caused by fire in adjacent buildings in the fire prevention zone, was analyzed legally and technically. We confirmed the uncertainty of the Building Act and the Fire Protection Act, and suggested the revision of the necessary standards. Method: Although the Drenzer facility is a building facility, it is actually applied in the field of firefighting, so the Delphi analysis was conducted on a panel composed of architectural experts and firefighting experts in the first, second, and third rounds to find the issuses and important facility component elements. Finally, the IPA(Importance-Performance Analysis) analysis was conducted to identify the importance of the elements that need to be revised. Result: Delphi analysis was carried out for experts on various components of Drenzer equipment in the first, second, and third rounds, and it was found that the survey items of the head, detector, and other facilities of the Drenzer equipment are valid items to identify problems. The IPA analysis indicated that the revision of the standards for Drencher head was necessary as a priority. Conclusion: In this study, it was possible to confirm the opinions of experts through Delphi analysis on the legal and technical problems of Drencher facilities, and it was confirmed that among the components of the Drencher facility, the revision of the head-related regulations is required as a priority.