Case Study on ATM Equipments by Delphi Methods

델파이 방법 적용 사례 연구 - 초고속망 장비 관련 시장 예측과 관련하여 -

The authors of this paper chose the delphi methods to investigate into several areas to understand where the pressures for ATM equipments will emerge in the prescribed time horizon of 1999 to 2010- a period just beyond the current manufacturing and deployment schedules of most companies. The areas studied are the office buildings and interoffice connectivity as well as switches, and finally transmission facilities. This paper is matched into these areas with the results of a Delphi study of 14 respondents from the common carriers like Korea Telecom and national institutions like ETRI. The investigators calculated the average answer for each question and presents the questionnaires for a second round to individuals who had responded to the first round of questioning. As a result of this paper, the authors reached some conclusions regarding what item will be predominant in each of the areas studied as well as the promoters and barriers for ATM deployment and some suggestions are provided for corporate managers and policy makers. This Delphi study did not provide a strong and uniform forecast that ATM would dominate the marketplace in the early years of next millenium, as many had anticipated. Whether it is in he area of office connection, enterprise backbone, switches and transmission facilities, respondents predicted the patterns which indicate a movement toward higher-bandwidth connectivity, although not necessarily provided with ATM networks. A general pattern is that the predictions for ATM deployment in each of the areas were strong from the year 1999 to 2010.