• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.303-310
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• 1996

1987년도와 1992년도에 한국 갤럽에서 대통령 선거 결과를 예측하기 위하여 실시한 바 있는 여론 조사 결과를 그래픽으로 분석하였다. 1987년도에는 각 후보에 대한 직접적인 지지도보다 종교별 후보 지지도 예측에 발표의 촛점이 맞춰져 있었으므로 이 발표 결과를 다각적으로 분석하였고, 1992년도에는 각 후보의 직접적인 지지도 분석에 촛점을 두었다.

• Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.113-130
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• 2017

The goal of this study is to propose the approaches to improve the voters' awareness by analyzing the voters' awareness on the fake news related to the elections and identifying the problems with the focus on the 19th Presidential Election. In accordance with the analysis on the data from 128 respondents (53 male and 75 female respondents), the 99.2% (127 respondents) of respondents had informations on elections mainly through broadcasting(77.2%), smart phone(70.9%), Internet(63.8%) and newspapers 32.3% which accounts for 41 respondents) in that sequence. Next, the 87.4% of respondents thought that the informations on elections had more impact on their voting than the generally expected degree. Meanwhile, the voters' awareness on the facts was analyzed by collecting and presenting the information on elections which stated by candidates in the 19th Presidential Election. In accordance with the analysis, there were the significant differences per age groups. The Scheffe test indicated that the respondents in 30s to 40s had significantly higher average awareness than those in 20s. According to the analysis results, it was proposed that the National Election Commission install the election information investigation and analysis committee in the election organization, investigate and analyze the election informations each election for providing real facts to the public, the voters.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.147-177
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• 2017

Although a number of empirical studies found that political ideology plays a significant role in Korean elections, they entirely rely on cross-sectional data analysis. In contrast to previous research, this study investigates the effects of ideology in the 2012 Korean presidential election through standard panel data analysis. Specifically, using "EAI Panel Study, 2012", the effects of ideology on both candidate evaluation and vote choice were examined via fixed effects, random effects, and pooled regression analysis. And the results from applying the two most popular models of ideological voting, the proximity model and the directional change model were also compared. The results show that candidate evaluations and vote choice during the election (April, 2012- December, 2012) were significantly influenced by the ideological difference between voters and candidates, independent from partisanship and other standard socio-demographic factors. And this ideological voting during the election seems better captured by the directional change model than by the proximity model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.55-66
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• 2010

Propensity score adjustment(PSA) has been suggested as approach to adjustment for volunteer internet survey. PSA attempts to decrease the biases arising from noncoverage and nonprobability sampling in volunteer panel internet surveys. Although PSA is an appealing method, its application for internet survey regarding Korea presidential election and its effectiveness is not well investigated. In this study, we compare the Ni Korea internet survey with the telephone survey conducted by MBMR and KBS for 2007 Korean presidential election. The result of study show that the accuracy of internet survey can be improved by using PSA. And it is critical to include covariates that highly related to the voting tendency and the role of nondemographic variables seems important to improving PSA for Korea presidential election prediction.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.31-53
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• 2002

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2003.06a
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• pp.161-179
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• 2003

• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.55-69
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• 2008

In most telephone surveys in Korea, telephone numbers are selected from the directories. Inevitably, such samples may lack representativeness due to poor coverage rate. To resolve the problem, Kang et al.(2008) implemented RDD(random digit dialing) method for nationwide sampling in Korea. The aim of this study is to compare an RDD sample with a traditional telephone quota sample that were collected independently by two survey institutes commissioned by the KBS-MBC consortium for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.375-385
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• 2009

For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.

• 대학교육
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• s.120
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• pp.33-75
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• 2002

한국대학교육협의회에서는 제16대 대통령 선거에 즈음하여 주요 정당의 대통령 후보자들을 대상으로 고등교육정책에 대하여 서면질의(별첨 서면질의서 참조)를 하였습니다. 서면 조사기간은 10월 28일부터 11월 15일이었으며, 각 당에서 제출한 답변서는 편집 형태를 통일하여 전문으로 게재하였습니다. 한국대학교육협의회에서 질의한 내용에 대한 각 당의 답변서는 현재 국회 의석 수를 기준으로 하여 '한나라당'. '새천년민주당', '국민통합21', '민주노동당' 순으로 구성하였습니다. 다만, 지면 부족으로 주요 당의 고등교육정책만을 게재함을 양지하여 주시기 바랍니다.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.25-48
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• 2011

In this paper, we overview the sample design, sampling error, non-response rate and prediction errors of the exit poll conducted for 2010 local elections and discusses how to detect a prediction bias in exit poll. To investigate the bias problem in exit poll in regional(Si-Do) level, we analyze exit poll data for 2007 presidential election and 2006 local elections as well as 2010 local elections in Korea. The measure of predictive accuracy A proposed by Martin et al.(2005) is used to assess the exit poll bias. The empirical studies based on three exit polls clearly show that there exits systematic bias in exit poll and the predictive bias of candidates affiliated to conservative party (such as Hannara-Dang) is serious in the specific regions. The result of this study on systematic bias will be very useful to improving the exit poll methodology in Korea.