• Title/Summary/Keyword: 대체지표

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The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

A Study on Effective Plans for Increasing Urban Parks through an Analysis of Areas with Park Shortages - Gangneung - (공원부족구역 분석을 통한 도시공원 확충방안 연구 - 강릉시를 대상으로 -)

  • Lee, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to propose plans to increase the number of urban parks as a way to help absorb carbon in order to implement the low carbon green city goals of Gangneung. As a study method, park incentive areas and current park areas were set as parameters and the areas of lacking in park space were categorized according to each indicator. The degree of park shortage was classified by overlapping the park shortage areas. Once the areas needing parks were assessed according to priority, target sites were selected on sites where construction would be actually possible. First, results of analysis showed that Songjeong-Dong and Seongdeok-Dong to the east of the target site lacking park space due to old residences and high population density or industrial use areas, were the most severe in the degree of park shortage. It was also shown that areas with high population density and park shortages included the Ponam-Dong, Okcheon-Dong and Hongje-Dong areas. Accordingly, the east side of the target areas and Hongje-Dong were both considered as high-priority areas needing to increase park space and actual possible target sites were selected for the creation of new, small parks in industrial areas by creating parks in school yards, in facility relocation sites and legal reviews. In addition, analysis indicators of park shortages were re-evaluated according to the securing of the park and it was shown that the problems in park shortages were resolved with the proper positioning of parks. In addition, satisfaction in the area of park per person, $3m^2$ was at a higher than a certain level in all areas except Songjeong-Dong, demonstrating that the park areas were evenly distributed. Areas of park shortage were shown in part of Songjeong-Dong and Seongdeok-Dong. This could be resolved by using alternative park resources such as the adjacent Gyeongpo Provincial Park, the beach and Namdaecheon.

Isolation and characterization of sigH from Corynebacterium glutamicum (Corynebacterium glutamicum의 sigH 유전자의 분리 및 기능분석)

  • Kim Tae-Hyun;Kim Hyung-Joon;Park Joon-Sung;Kim Younhee;Lee Heung-Shick
    • Korean Journal of Microbiology
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2005
  • Corynebacterial clones which exert regulatory effects on the expression of the glyoxylate bypass genes were isolated using a reporter plasmid carrying the enteric lacZ fused to the aceB promoter of Corynebacterium glutamicum. Some clones carried common fragments as turned out by DNA mapping technique. Subcloning analysis followed by the measurement of $\beta-galactosidase$ activity in Escherichia coli identified the region responsible for the aceB-repressing activity. Sequence analysis of the DNA fragment identified two independent ORFs of ORF1 and ORF2. Among them, ORF2 was turned out to be responsible for the aceB-repressing activity. ORF1 encoded a 23,216 Da protein composed of 206 amino acids. Sequence similarity search indicated that the ORF may encode a ECF-type $\sigma$ factor and designated sigH. To identify the function of sigH, C. glutamicum sigH mutant was constructed by gene disruption technique and the sigH mutant showed growth retardation as compared to the wild type strain. In addition, the mutant strain showed sensitivity to oxidative-stress generating agent plumbagin. This result imply that sigH is probably involved in the stress response occurring during normal cell growth.

The Comparison and Index Components in Quality of Salt-Fermented Anchovy Sauces (멸치 액젓의 품질 비교 및 품질 지표성분에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Kwang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 1995
  • To assay the quality of anchovy sauce, 10 kinds of commercial anchovy sauce(CAS) were purchased from markets and traditional anchovy sauce(TAS) were prepared. And their physicochemical-microbial characteristics were compared. The compositions of CAS were as followed; pH $5.5{\sim}5.7$, salinity $21.0{\sim}23.2%$, VBN $92.8{\sim}305.4\;mg/100g$, total nitrogen $928.0{\sim}1870.9\;mg%$, amino-nitrogen $338.6{\sim}680.3\;mg%$, and acidity $11.58{\sim}24.58\;ml$. The CAS was lower in pH, smaller in contents of VBN, total-N, amino-N and larger in contents of moisture, salinity than TAS. In Hunter values, CAS was generally lower in L, b values whereas higher in a and ${\Delta}E$ values than TAS. Viable cell counts on 0% NaCl-medium of CAS and TAS were $6.4{\times}10^1{\sim}3.0{\times}10^5\;and\;8.7{\times}10^4$, and those on 2.5% NaCl-medium were $0.8{\times}10^2{\sim}2.2{\times}10^5\;and\;1.6{\times}10^4{\sim}4.5{\times}10^5$, respectively. These viable cell counts in CAS and TAS were gradually decreased according to storage time. In composition of extractives, total free amino acid contents of CAS and TAS were $5498.5{\sim}12123.8\;mg%$, 12797.9 mg%, and these contents were gradually decreased during storage. The major amino acids were found glutamic acid, alanine and leucine in CAS, and alanine, glutamic acid, leucine and valine in TAS. Also contents of hypoxanthine, TMAO, TMA in CAS and TAS were shown $86.4{\sim}161.2\;mg%,\;51.6{\sim}99.2\;mg%,\;23.2{\sim}42.9\;mg%$ and 103.7 mg%, 128.8 mg%, 55.8 mg%, respectively. We may conclude from the results of present experiments that parts of tested CAS were somewhat putrefied and there was a great difference in the quality compared with TAS, whereas TAS maintained good conditions for preserving the quality until storage 2 years.

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Analysis of Climate Change Researches Related to Water Resources in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 수자원분야 기후변화 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh;Kang, Noel
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2012
  • The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

Survey on the distribution of ancient tombs using LiDAR measurement method (라이다(LiDAR) 측량기법을 활용한 고분분포현황 조사)

  • SIM Hyeoncheol
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.54-70
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    • 2023
  • Surveys and studies on cultural assets using LiDAR measurement are already active overseas. Recently, awareness of the advantages and availability of LiDAR measurement has increased in Korea, and cases of using it for surveys of cultural assets are gradually increasing. However, it is usually restricted to surveys of mountain fortresses and is not actively used for surveys of ancient tombs yet. Therefore, this study intends to emphasize the need to secure fundamental data from LiDAR measurement for the era from the Three Kingdoms to Unified Silla in which recovery, maintenance, etc., in addition to the actual surveys, are unfulfilled due to the sites being mainly distributed in mountainous areas. For this, LiDAR measurement was executed for the area of Jangsan Ancient Tombs and Chunghyo-dong Ancient Tombs in Seoak-dong, Gyeongju, to review the distribution and geographical conditions of ancient tombs. As a result, in the Jangsan Ancient Tombs, in which a precision archaeological (measurement) survey was already executed, detailed geographic information and distribution conditions could be additionally identified, which could not be known only with the layout indicated by the topographic map of the existing report. Also, in the Chunghyo-dong Ancient Tombs, in which an additional survey was not conducted after 10 tombs were found during the Japanese colonial period, the location of the ancient tombs initially excavated was accurately identified, and the status and additional information was acquired, such as on the conditions of ancient tombs not surveyed. Such information may also be used as fundamental data for the preservation and maintenance of future ancient tombs in addition to the survey and study of the ancient tombs themselves. LiDAR measurement is most effective for identifying the condition of ancient tombs in mountainous areas where observation is difficult or access is limited due to the forest zone. It may be executed before on-site surveys, such as archaeological surveys, to secure data with high availability as prior surveys or pre-surveys. Therefore, it is necessary to secure fundamental data from LiDAR measurement in future surveys of ancient tombs and to establish a survey and maintenance/utilization plan based on this. To establish survey/study and preservation/maintenance measures for ancient tombs located in mountainous areas, a precision archaeological survey is currently executed to draw up a distribution chart of ancient tombs. If LiDAR measurement data is secured before this and used, a more effective and accurate distribution chart can be drawn up, and the actual conditions can be identified. Also, most omissions or errors in information can be prevented in on-site surveys of large regions. Therefore, it is necessary to accumulate fundamental data by actively using LiDAR measurement in future surveys of ancient tombs.

Incongruence Between Housing Affordability and Residential Environment Quality of Young Renters Living Independently in Non-Seoul Metropolitan Area (비수도권 지역에 독립 거주 중인 미혼 청년 가구의 월세 부담 및 거주성 비교 분석)

  • Hyunjeong Lee;Sangjun Nam
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2024
  • This research explores the household and housing characteristics of young renters aged between 19 and 34 living independently in rental housing of non-Seoul Metropolitan Area (non-SMA) and to determine the factors of their housing affordability and residential environment qualities in two districts of non-SMA - metropolises and non-metropolises. Using the 2020 Korean Housing Survey (KHS), this study identified 1,191 unmarried young renters, and most were single adults in mid-twenties who were salaried workers with a bachelor's degree or higher. Also, many lived in single-room occupancy of non-APT housing for less than 2 years and rarely relied on social services. The findings showed that the distinction of local housing market between metropolises and non-metropolises forced the former to spend more housing expense (tenancy deposit and rental fees) than the latter. With regard to housing affordability indices (Schwabe index, housing expense ratio and rent to income ratio), most were housing cost-burdened and nearly one quarter were severely rent-burdened. The regression analysis indicated that housing affordability in both districts was positively affected by income increase and social services, and housing satisfaction in non-metropolises was added to its determinants. Further, residential environment qualities were largely divided into two groups of livelihood and urban infrastructure, and the two factors influenced residential assessment in both districts. Since young renters interdependently living had suffered with housing affordability, both income growth and housing assistance are critically required to enable them not just to reduce the burden but to ensure livability.

Study of East Asia Climate Change for the Last Glacial Maximum Using Numerical Model (수치모델을 이용한 Last Glacial Maximum의 동아시아 기후변화 연구)

  • Kim, Seong-Joong;Park, Yoo-Min;Lee, Bang-Yong;Choi, Tae-Jin;Yoon, Young-Jun;Suk, Bong-Chool
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.20 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2006
  • The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) in northeast Asia is simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model of NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. Modern climate is simulated by a prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice provided from NCAR, and contemporary atmospheric CO2, topography, and orbital parameters, while LGM simulation was forced with the reconstructed CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, sea ice distribution, ice sheet topography, reduced $CO_2$, and orbital parameters. Under LGM conditions, surface temperature is markedly reduced in winter by more than $18^{\circ}C$ in the Korean west sea and continental margin of the Korean east sea, where the ocean exposed to land in the LGM, whereas in these areas surface temperature is warmer than present in summer by up to $2^{\circ}C$. This is due to the difference in heat capacity between ocean and land. Overall, in the LGM surface is cooled by $4{\sim}6^{\circ}C$ in northeast Asia land and by $7.1^{\circ}C$ in the entire area. An analysis of surface heat fluxes show that the surface cooling is due to the increase in outgoing longwave radiation associated with the reduced $CO_2$ concentration. The reduction in surface temperature leads to a weakening of the hydrological cycle. In winter, precipitation decreases largely in the southeastern part of Asia by about $1{\sim}4\;mm/day$, while in summer a larger reduction is found over China. Overall, annual-mean precipitation decreases by about 50% in the LGM. In northeast Asia, evaporation is also overall reduced in the LGM, but the reduction of precipitation is larger, eventually leading to a drier climate. The drier LGM climate simulated in this study is consistent with proxy evidence compiled in other areas. Overall, the high-resolution model captures the climate features reasonably well under global domain.

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Studies on the changes of main components during the fermentation of Anchvy sauce (멸치젓 발효숙성중 주요성분의 변화)

  • 조영도
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 1996
  • This research aimed at investigating the changes of volatile basic nitrogen, amino nitrogen and lipids during the fermentation of 6 month Anchovy cured under room temperature with various treatments(20, 30 and 40% salted) and examing the optimum condition of Anchovy sauce. The results are summerized as the V.B.N which increased with the curing period of anchovy from 14 mg% to 90~107mg% in 180 days curing at 20% salt level. Amino nitrogen in minced anchovy was higher than in whole anchovy during fermentation and the content of Extractive Nitrogen in the curing anchovy containing 20% of salt, kept the highest amount in 60 curing days. As a rule, minced anchovy showed more rapidly increased than whole anchovy. The lipid in curing anchovy containing 20% and 30% of salt has already been oxidized in 30 days while the lipid of anchovy cured with 40% salt prolonged the initial stage to 45 days. During fermentation, peroxide value and acid value showed constant increasing, while thiobarbituric acid began to decrease after 120 days curing. Among the non-polar lipids, linolenic acid, linoleic acid and erucic acid was decomposed by 24.5%, 22.2%, and 20.0%, respectively. It was noticed that the decomposition of polar lipid was retarded by higher salt content.

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