• Title/Summary/Keyword: 대수정규 분포

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Estimating design floods for ungauged basins in the geum-river basin through regional flood frequency analysis using L-moments method (L-모멘트법을 이용한 지역홍수빈도분석을 통한 금강유역 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Shin, Ji-Yae;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.8
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    • pp.645-656
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    • 2016
  • The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.

A Case Study on Stochastic Fracture Network Modeling for Rock Slopes of Busan-Ulsan Highway(Reach 5) (부산-울산 고속국도(5공구)에 위치한 암반사면의 추계론적 절리연결구조 모사에 대한 사례연구)

  • Heo, In-Sill;Um, Jeong-Gi;Kim, Yang-Phil;Kim, Kook-Han;Lee, Young-Kyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.16 no.4 s.50
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    • pp.337-349
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    • 2006
  • Seven hundred and fifty one fractures of the rhyolitic tuffaceous rock masses were mapped using 6 scanlines placed on rock slope exposures that were within 8.02 km of Busan-Ulsan highway. These data were analyzed to find the number of fracture sets that exist in the rock slopes and the probability distributions of orientation, spacing, trace length and fracture size in 3-D for each of the fracture sets. All the fracture set orientation distributions exhibit high variability. The Fisher distributions were found to be unsuitable to represent the statistical distribution of orientation for most of the fracture sets. The probability distributions, gamma, exponential and lognormal were found to be highly suitable to represent the distribution of spacing and semi-trace length of fracture sets. In obtain-ing these distributions, corrections were applied for sampling biases associated with spacing and trace length. The generated fracture system in 3-D was used to make predictions of fracture traces for each fracture set on 2-D win-dows. Developed stochastic 3-D fracture network for the rock mass was validated by comparing statistical proper-ties of the observed fracture traces on scanlines with the predicted fracture traces on the scanlines. This exercise fumed out to be successful.

A Study on the Size of Oust in Workplaces of a Shipyard (조선작업장의 분진크기에 관한 조사)

  • Lee, Choong-Ryeol;Ryu, Cheol-In
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.1 s.60
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    • pp.104-111
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    • 1998
  • To obtain the basic information that can be used as a factor for explaining the diversity of welders' pneumoconiosis, the authors measured the concentrations of dust according to the size of dust in 71 workplaces of a shipyard where welders' pneumoconiosis have occurred. The concentrations of dust according to the size of dust showed no difference between workplaces regardless of kinds of work.

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Optimal Design for Reliability with Lognormally Distributed Stress and Strength (대수(對數) 정규분포(正規分布)를 하는 부하(負荷)와 강도(强度) 신뢰성(信賴性)모델에서의 최적화(最適化) 설계(設計)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(I))

  • Kim, Bok-Man;Hwang, Ui-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 1990
  • Mechanical components and structures are a major part of complex systems and the conseguences of their failure can be extremely costly. The ultimate goal of design engineers is to optimize these mechanical and structural design from the point of view of cost, reliability, weight, volume, maintainability and safety. An essential requirement of design optimization is to develop mathematical models for reliability at design stage. This paper is to minimize the cost of resources subject to the constraint that the reliability of the system must meet a specified level. The lagrange multiplier method is used to optimize the lognormal stress-lognormal strength problem. This optimization problem can be reduced to a search problem in one variable. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the optimization problem.

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Numerical Modeling Study for Groundwater Flow at Chun-Mi Creek, JeJu Island (제주도 천미천 유역의 지하수위 변동 수치모의)

  • Choi, Jung-Hyun;Park, Hwa-Jun;Kim, Won-Il;Ho, Jung-Seok;Ahn, Won-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.702-706
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    • 2007
  • 본 연구에서는 실측 강수 자료를 적용하여 장기 지하수위의 변동을 수치모의하고, 그 결과를 관측정으로부터 측정된 실측 지하수위와 비교하였다. 모형의 구축은 제주도 한라산 중산간으로부터 해안까지 이르는 유역 면적 $310km^2$의 천미천 유역을 대상으로 하였으며, 2001년 11월 부터 2002년 10월까지 12개월간의 강우에 따른 지하수위의 변동을 평형상태로 해석하였다. 미국 지질조사국 (USGS) 에서 개발한 3차원 유한차분 해석 프로그램인 MODFLOW 모형을 선정하여 적용한 결과를 유역 내의 12개 관측정 측정수위와 비교하였으며, 대상지역에서 14.7m의 평균 오차와 21% 정규 실효치를 나타내었다. 향후 모형 구축 및 모의 결과의 신뢰도를 향상시키기 위해 격자수와 크기의 조절 및 공간적 분포에 따른 대수층의 투수계수와 저류계수의 민감도 분석을 수행하여야 할 것으로 판단되며, 계속 연구 수행 중에 있다.

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Reliability Assessment of Anticorrosive Paints with Accelerated Degradation Test (가속열화시험에 의한 건축용 도료의 신뢰성 평가)

  • Kwon, Young-Il;Kim, Seung-Jin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2009
  • Accelerated and field degradation tests are performed for reliability assessment of an anticorrosive paint for steel structures. Test data were analyzed to obtain the degradation model and the life time distributions of the paint. A power law degradation model and lognormal performance distribution were used to predict the lifetime of the anticorrosive paint and the method of finding an acceleration factor is provided.

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Design of Accelerated Life Test Plans for the Lognormal Failure Distribution under Intermittent Inspection (대수정규분포와 간헐적 검사하에서 가속수명시험방식의 설계)

  • Seo, Sun-Keun;Cho, Ho-Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.25-43
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    • 1996
  • This paper presents the optimal and practical constant-stress accelerated life test plans for the lognormal lifetime distribution tinder assumptions of intermittent inspection and Type-I censoring. In an optimal plan, the low stress level and the proportions of test units allocated at each stress are determined under given inspection scheme and number of inspections such that the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a certain quantile at use condition is minimized. Although the practical plan adopts the same design criterion, it involves three rather than two overstress levels in order to compromise the practical deficiencies of the optimal plan. Computational experiments are conducted to choose an allocation plan and a inspection scheme of the practical plan and to compare with test plans over a range of parameter values.

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A Study on Prediction Model for Laundry and Toilet Water-use demand (세탁기 및 화장실 용수 수요량에 대한 예측모형 연구)

  • Myoung, Sung-Min
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.327-335
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    • 2019
  • This study develops a prediction model for toilet and laundry water end-uses based on surveyed data which measured housing and household characteristics of 140 households over 5 years in Korea. Classical regression model assuming a normal distribution was not appropriate and estimated parameters were biased, because the distribution of measured water-uses was left-skewed. As an alternative to this problem, we considered the distribution of weibull and lognormal for each water-uses, and three regression models were compared using log-likelihood and scale parameter. As a result, weibull regression were chosen to be appropriate for both water-uses and also presented the factors that affect each water-use. This results expect that an insight is provided on water resources utilization and theoretical support role for effective water resource management.

Development of Curve Fitted Equations for Dynamic Behavior of Various Buried Pipelines (각종 매설관의 동적거동에 대한 곡선적합식의 개발)

  • Kim, Sung-Ban;Jeong, Jin-Ho;Joeng, Du-Hwoe;Lee, Kwang-Yeol
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.10 no.4 s.50
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the curve fitted equations for practicality and actual calculation during seismic performance evaluation of buried pipelines. Curve fitting for strain curve according to the wavelength of the seismic wave was produced using the non-linear least square method and the equations with the best results was suggested. In addition, a degree and coefficient of polynomial fitting equation needed to use curve fitted equation were identified. Interpreting process during the test of resistance of earthquake of buried pipelines with various end boundary conditions were provided through example questions. The results of this study were used to conduct a dynamic response analysis and a seismic performance evaluation of concrete, steel, and FRP pipes with various end boundary conditions.

Analysis of Surplus and Dficit-using Runs for Monthly Streamflow (월유출량에 대한 Run-Length의 해석)

  • Gang, Gwan-Won;An, Gyeong-Su;Kim, Yang-Su
    • Water for future
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 1985
  • In the analysis, monthly streamflow records atthe gauging station in Nakdong, Han and Geum river were used. Also, the fitness of monthly streamflow to Gamma and Long-normal distribution was tested by Kolomogorv-Smirnov test. The results obtained in this study can be summarized as follws (1) The fitness of monthly streamflow to two-parameter Gamma distribution was tested by Kolomorov-Smirnov test, which fits well to this Gamma distribution (2) The Run-length and Run-sum were simulated by the Gamma model. In this result, run-length and Run-sum of monthly streamflow were fit for Gamma model (3) The mean decreases (increases) the expected surplus (deficit) Run-Sum of the monthly streamflow. The higher the truncation level of negative Run-length and Run-sum the larger is the effect of mean.

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