• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.61-69
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• 2010

In this paper, we present the methodology about an optimal probability distribution selection as well as survival rate estimation with the national highway database from 1999 to 2008. Probability paper methods are adopted to estimate the parameters of each hazard model. The goodness-of-fit test, such as the Anderson-Darling statistics, was performed. As a result, we found that Lognormal distributionan is an appropriate distribution of newly constructed sections as well as overlayed sections. We also ascertained that the results of survival rate for pavement life between the proposed method and observed data are similar. Such a selection methodology and measures based on reliability theory can provide useful information for maintenance plans in pavement management systems as long as additional life data on pavement sections are accumulated.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.12
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• pp.943-956
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• 2007

Among various statistics, the spatial correlation function, that is "correlogram", is frequently used to evaluate or design the rain gauge network and to model the rainfall field. The spatial correlation structure of rainfall has the significant variation due to many factors. Thus, the variation of spatial correlation structure of rainfall causes serious problems when deciding the spatial correlation function of rainfall within the basin. In this study, the spatial rainfall structure was modeled using bivariate mixed distributions to derive monthly spatial correlograms, based on Gaussian and lognormal distributions. This study derived the correlograms using hourly data of 28 rain gauge stations in the Keum river basin. From the results, we concluded as following; (1) Among three cases (Case A, Case B, Case C) considered, the Case A(+,+) seems to be the most relevant as it is not distorted much by zero measurements. (2) The spatial correlograms based on the lognormal distribution, which is theoretically as well as practically adequate, is better than that based on the Gaussian distribution. (3) The spatial correlation in July exponentially decrease more obviously than those in other months. (4) The spatial correlograms should be derived considering the temporal resolution(hourly, daily, etc) of interest.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.53-57
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• 2014

In the fields of reliability application, the most commonly used test methods for reliability demonstration are zero-failure acceptance tests since they require fewer test samples and less test time compared to other test methods that guarantee the same reliability with a given confidence level. For products with lognormal lifetime distribution, the value of scale parameter is usually assumed to be known in designing reliability demonstration tests. It is important to select correct values of scale parameters to guarantee the specified reliability with given confidence level exactly. The effect of using wrong values of scale parameters in designing reliability demonstration test for products with lognormal lifetime distribution is examined and selecting proper values of scale parameters for conservative reliability demonstration is discussed.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.781-787
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• 2010

Forecasting possible failure characteristics is very important in maintenance planning because it helps in predicting any future failures and determining the optimum replacement interval. This paper examines the time.to-failure distribution of the transfer gearbox of a J79 engine by using a probability plotting technique which is one of the most convenient techniques for reliability analysis. Various probability distributions are evaluated for determining the suitable probability distribution of the failure data of the transfer gearbox, and the resulting correlation coefficient indicates that failure data have a lognormal distribution. The expected number of unscheduled maintenance actions and the optimum replacement interval for various values of cost ratios are determined.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.39-50
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• 1988

Until now, most probabilistic approaches to the slope stability analysis have been accomplished on the arc failure surface without load. In this study, the relationships between the probability of failure and the safety factor are investigated when the shape of failure is logarithmic spiral on the homogeneous slope with ground water level, the probability distributions of the load and the strength parameter of soil being assumed as normal distribution, log-normal distribution and beta distribution. The results obtained are as follows; 1. For the same safety factor, the design of slope is more reasonable by using the probability of failure than by the safety factor because the probability of failure is increased as the coefficient of variation is increased. 2, The safety factor is more reasonably determined by the coefficient of variation of the strength parameter than by the field condition when the safety factor is applied to design of slope.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 1989.07a
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• pp.3-3
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• 1989

한발에 대한 정도와 기간을 예측하기위한 추계학적인 한 방법으로서 RUNS의 이론이 오래전부터 사용되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 이러한 RUNS 이론을 이용하여 우리나라의 강수량 형태를 년과 월로 구분하고 NORMAL, LOG-NORMAL, GAMMA 등의 이론적 분포와 비교, 분석 하여 실제 우리나라 강우량 특성이 이들 이론적 분포함수, 모멘트, 기타 다른 통계적 특성들과 어떠한 관계에 있는지 조사하는 것이다. 비교적 그 기간이 긴 대구, 부산, 서울, 전주등 8개 지점의 자료로부터 년 강수량은 정규분포, 대수정규분포, GAMMA 분포의 가정하에 그리고 월 강수량은 자료를 1차 표준화하여 우리나라 강수량의 RUNS 특성, 즉 RUN-LENGTH, RUN-SUM, RUN-INTENSITY 을 분석해 본 결과 대체로 GAMMA 분포에 가까운 경향을 보일수 있었다.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.275-281
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• 2014

The performance criteria of rockfall protection fence and reliability index were investigated considering characteristic of rockfall energy occurred at 160 cut slopes in national highway. As a result of study on statistic of variables that decide rockfall energy using Monte-Carlo simulation, the degree of slope was normal distribution type, mass of rockfall and height of slope was lognormal distribution type. The rockfall energy follows lognormal distribution because of statistical characteristic of mass of rockfall. The reliability index of rockfall protection fence was 0.678 and the failure probability of was very high as 24.9%. Proposed performance criteria of rockfall protection fence considering the scale of domestic rockfall energy is maximum 500 kJ and the range of reliability index was from 1.028 to 1.956. the failure probability of rockfall protection fence was from 14.8 to 2.5 percent if applying the performance criteria using the reliability index.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.72-87
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• 1986

본 연구의 목적은 주가로상 좌회전운전자의 문격수낙특성(gap-acceptance characteristics)을 파악하는 데 있다. 이 목적을 달성하기 위하여 포켓컴퓨터를 이용한 새로 운 자료수집기법이 개발되었다. 이 기법은 적은 비용으로 정확한 자료의 수집을 가능하게 하였다. 연구교차로는 마산시의 부도심에 위치한 2차선가로 및 4차선가로상의 전형적인 신 호등 비설치교차로가 선정되었다. 정규분포 및 대수정규분포가 probit분석을 이용하여 임계 수낙문격분포(critical acceptance gap distribution)로 검정되었다. 두 분포들은 5% 우의수준 에서 기각되지 않았다. 2차선가로의 임계수낙문격은 2.9∼3.0초의 범위였으며 표준편차는 1. 2∼1.5초의 범위였고, 4차선가로는 각각3.3∼3.4초와 1.3∼1.5초의 범위였다. 2차선가로의 임 계 lag는 2.6초였으며 4차선가로의 임계lag는 3.2초이었다. 국내 좌회전운전자의 임계수낙문 격이 미국인의 것에 비하여 짧은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 도시교통류의 주구성 차량이 직업 운전자들이 운전하는 소형 택시로 이루어지는 운전자 및 차량특성에 기인한 것으로 볼 수 있다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.02a
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• pp.103.2-103.2
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• 2010

Soil Moisture Experiment(SMEX)는 2002년부터 2005년까지 해마다 실측치, 항공기 및 원격탐사를 이용하여 토양수분을 관측 및 평가하고 지표와 대기의 수문학적 연구를 위해 기초가 되는 토양수분 자료를 제공한다. 우리나라도 토양수분에 관한 연구가 있지만 원격탐사를 이용한 접근은 적다. 본 연구에서는 SMEX02의 Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer(PSR) 데이터와 In-situ 데이터를 사용가능한 4개 지점에 대하여 비교 분석을 실시하였다. C-band의 토양수분은 10cm 깊이에서 유의함을 보여 주고, 검정을 통하여 토양수분의 분포형은 정규분포 보다 대수정규분포와 Gumbel 분포가 더 유의함을 알 수 있었다.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.41-47
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• 2017

This study is an empirical analysis of the welfare of small and medium venture company trade. In the past, although the study analyzes the trade welfare for representative firm, this research is focusing on the distribution of an entire industry of companies analyzed. In this study, medium-to venture enterprise-scale for logarithmic normal distribution and Pareto distribution is estimated, and this study investigates the trading welfare changes. Results of the analysis can be summarized as follows. First of all, greater trade benefits enterprise-scale heterogeneity appeared to be significant. The result of this finding appeared to be the same to large firms as well as small and medium ventures. Trading welfare, assuming the distribution of Pareto rather than logarithmic normal distribution it's supposed to be overwhelmingly large. Secondly, the case of large corporations shows the more trade welfare than that of small and medium venture companies. Third, assuming homogeneous distribution of enterprise-scale trade welfare differences did not exist. Finally, from the point of view of increasing the welfare of trade, the diversity aiming of venture business is a very important role in the long term, because of the small and medium-sized ventures trade role.