• Title/Summary/Keyword: 누적분포함수

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Comparison of Outage Probability Between Best-relay 2-hop Relaying and 3-hop Relaying (두 릴레이가 존재할 때 삼중 홉 중계와 베스트 릴레이 선택 후 이중 홉 중계 방식의 아웃티지 확률 비교)

  • Youn, You-Sun;Kim, Dong-Woo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.35 no.1B
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we investigate decode-and-forward (DF) relaying systems with a direct link between the source and the destination node. The objective of this paper is to determine the better relaying strategy between 3-hop DF relaying and dual-hop DF relaying with the best relay selection. Assuming Rayleigh fading channels, we present closed-form outage probability of the 3-hop relaying and the dual-hop relaying, respectively, and compare the performances by numerical investigation. Numerical results show that if the channel is poor, the outage performance of the 3-hop relaying is better than the dual-hop relaying.

Efficient Uncertainty Estimation of TOPMODEL Using Particle Swarm Optimization : Case Studies for Texas Watersheds (입자군집최적화 기법을 통한 TOPMODEL의 효율적인 불확실도 분석 : Texas 유역을 대상으로)

  • Park, Jeongha;Cho, Huidae;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.161-161
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구는 효율적인 매개변수 추정 방법인 Isolated-Speciation Particle Swarm Optimization(ISPSO)와 불확실도 분석 기법인 GLUE를 결합한 ISPSO-GLUE의 개념을 도입하였다. 임의 매개변수 추출을 방식인 GLUE 기법과 ISPSO-GLUE와의 효율성 비교를 위해 분포형 강우-유출모형인 TOPMODEL에 적용하였으며, 추정된 매개변수에 대한 모의 유량치를 이용하여 성능을 비교하였다. 연구대상지는 Texas의 $1000{\times}2000km^2$ 크기 내외의 두 유역을 택하였으며, 2002-2007년을 보정기간으로 하고, 2008-2013년을 검증기간으로 설정하였다. 불확실도 분석에 10개의 TOPMODEL 매개변수를 이용하고, 우도함수로는 Nash-Sutcliffe(NS) Coefficient이용하여 0.6이상 기준으로 행동모형을 구분하였다. 분석 결과 모수 추정성능면에서, 누적 최대 NS 값과 행동 모형의 개수는 전반적으로 ISPSO-GLUE에서 큰 값을 보였으나, 불확실도 구간에 속하는 관측치는 GLUE에서 더 높은 경향을 보였다. 이는 ISPSO-GLUE의 편향된 모수 추정으로 불확실도 구간이 작아지며, 포함되는 관측치가 GLUE에 비하여 적게 되는 것으로 확인되었다. ISPSO-GLUE의 개선을 통하여 TOPMODEL에 대한 적용성을 증진시키고, 값비싼 수문모형에 대한 매개변수 추정에 더 큰 효과를 가져올 것으로 기대된다.

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Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.130-139
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    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

Safety Regulation of Railway Embankment using Velocity of Failure Probability (파괴확률 변화속도를 이용한 철도 성토사면의 안전관리기준)

  • Kim, Hyun-Ki;Shin, Min-Ho;Lee, Sung-Hyeok;Choi, Chan-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.1037-1042
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    • 2009
  • Safety regulation of railway embankment is restricted by safety factor in dry season or rainy season in Korea. Safety factor which is results from the limit equilibrium analysis is varied by various external conditions. And because it has no reflection point, it is very difficult to manage the safety of trains. Safety regulation such like warning sign, reduce speed and train stop is the best choice to reduce the damage of embankments where it is worried about occurrence of disasters. In this study, additional index is proposed to support present safety standards based on unsaturated soil mechanics and reliability analysis. It is velocity of failure probability. It has an apparent reflection point near present safety regulation. It is possible to modify the regulation for safety management and monitoring system of embankments by using this index.

Nucleus Recognition of Uterine Cervical Pap-Smears using Fuzzy Reasoning Rule (퍼지 추론 규칙을 이용한 자궁 경부진 핵 인식)

  • Kim, Kwang-Baek;Song, Doo-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.179-187
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we apply a set of algorithms to classily normal and cancer nucleus from uterine cervical pap-smear images. First, we use lightening compensation algorithm to restore color images that have defamation through the process of obtaining $1{\times}400$ microscope magnification. Then, we remove the background from images with the histogram distributions of RGB regions. We extract nucleus areas from candidates by applying histogram brightness, Kapur method, and our own 8-direction contour tracing algorithm. Various binarization, cumulative entropy, masking algorithms are used in that process. Then, we are able to recognize normal and cancer nucleus from those areas by using three morphological features - directional information, the size of nucleus, and area ratio - with fuzzy membership functions and deciding rules we devised. The experimental result shows our method has low false recognition rate.

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Weibull Diameter Distribution Yield Prediction System for Loblolly Pine Plantations (테다소나무 조림지(造林地)에 대한 Weibull 직경분포(直經分布) 수확예측(收穫豫測) 시스템에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Young-Jin;Hong, Sung-Cheon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.2
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    • pp.176-183
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    • 2001
  • Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) is the most economically important timber producing species in the southern United States. Much attention has been given to predicting diameter distributions for the solution of multiple-product yield estimates. The three-parameter Weibull diameter distribution yield prediction systems were developed for loblolly pine plantations. A parameter recovery procedure for the Weibull distribution function based on four percentile equations was applied to develop diameter distribution yield prediction models. Four percentiles (0th, 25th, 50th, 95th) of the cumulative diameter distribution were predicted as a function of quadratic mean diameter. Individual tree height prediction equations were developed for the calculation of yields by diameter class. By using individual tree content prediction equations, expected yield by diameter class can be computed. To reduce rounding-off errors, the Weibull cumulative upper bound limit difference procedure applied in this study shows slightly better results compared with upper and lower bound procedure applied in the past studies. To evaluate this system, the predicted diameter distributions were tested against the observed diameter distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test at the ${\alpha}$=0.05 level to check if any significant differences existed. Statistically, no significant differences were detected based on the data from 516 evaluation data sets. This diameter distribution yield prediction system will be useful in loblolly pine stand structure modeling, in updating forest inventories, and in evaluating investment opportunities.

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고투수성 점토질 자갈층에서 수리전도도와 종분산지수의 규모종속효과

  • Gang, Dong-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Yeong;Kim, Seong-Su;Yu, Hun-Seon;Gwon, Byeong-Hyeok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.428-432
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    • 2008
  • 대수층의 저유량이 풍부한 강변여과수 개발 예정지역의 충적충(지표면하 25$\sim$35 m 구간)에서 수리전도도와 증분산지수의 규모종속효과를 규명하기 위해 양수시험과 수렴흐름 추적자시험이 수행되었다. 양수시험과 추적자시험의 규모는 2 m 와 5 m 이었으며 양수시험은 5개 공, 추적자시험은 3개 공을 이용하여 수행되었다. 양수시험은 일정한 양수율(2,500 m$^3$/day)로 수행되었으며, 양수 시작 후 경과시간에 따른 수위변화 자료를 AQTESOLV 3.5 프로그램에 입력하여 해석하였다. 시험대수층의 수리전도도는 양수정에서 1.745$\times$10$^{-3}$ m/sec, 양수정에서 이격거리가 2 m 구간에서는 2.161$\times$10$^{-3}$ m/sec와 2.270$\times$10$^{-3}$ m/sec 이었으며, 이격거리가 5 m 구간에서는 2.452$\times$10$^{-3}$ m/sec와 2.591$\times$10$^{-3}$ m/sec로 산정되었다. 그리고, 양수정에서 회복시험 시 Theis(Recovery) 방법에 의해 해석된 수리전도도는 1.603$\times$10$^{-3}$ m/sec이었다. 양수정에서 관측정의 이격거리(d)에 따른 수리전도도(K) 증가함수는 log K = 0.0693logd-2.071와 log K = 0.08171og d-2.655로 추정되었으며, 결정계수는 각각 0.965와 0.979로서 매우 높게 나타났다. 따라서 양수정에서의 이격거리가 멀수록 수리전도도가 증가하는 규모종속을 확인하였으며, 또한 시험대수층의 수리전도도가 방사상으로 유사하게 분포하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 수렴흐름 추적자시험의 양수율은 2,500 m$^3$/day 이었으며, 2개의 주입정에 염소이온 5 kg을 순간 주입하였다. 염소이온의 농도이력곡선을 작성하여 초기도달시간과 최고농도의 차이를 분석하였으며, 누적질량회수곡선을 통해 양수 후 경과시간에 따른 염소이온의 질량회수율을 분석하였다. 그리고, 염소이온농도 대 누적질량회수율의 이력그래프를 작성하여 누적질량회수율에 따른 염소이온농도의 증가와 감소 변화를 분석하였다. 또한, 염소이온농도의 증가/감소 구간에 대한 선형회귀분석을 수행하여 농도 증가율과 감소율의 변화를 파악하였다. 양수정에서 관측된 경과시간별 염소이온농도 자료를 CATTI 코드의 "Converging Radial Flow With Instantaneous Injection" 해석법에 적용하여 종분산지수를 추정하였다. 양수정에서 이격거리가 2 m인 경우의 종분산지수는 0.4152 m, 이격거리가 5 m인 경우의 종분산지수는 3.2665 m 이었다. 따라서 양수정에서 이격거리가 멀수록 종분산지수가 증가하는 규모종속효과를 확인하였으며, 또한 이격거리에 대한 종분산지수의 비는 각각 0.21과 0.65 정도로서 증가하였다.

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The scale dependent effect of hydraulic conductivity and longitudinal dispersivity in the alluvial aquifer with high permeability (고투수성 충적층에서 수리전도도와 종분산지수의 규모종속효과)

  • Kang, Dong-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Yeong;Kim, Sung-Soo;Kim, Dong-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1899-1903
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    • 2008
  • 대수층의 저유량이 풍부한 강변여과수 개발 예정지역의 충적층(지표면하 $25{\sim}35\;m$ 구간)에서 수리전도도와 종분산지수의 규모종속효과를 규명하기 위해 양수시험과 수렴흐름 추적자시험이 수행 되었다. 양수시험과 추적자시험의 규모는 2 m 와 5 m 이었으며 양수시험은 5개 공, 추적자시험은 3개 공을 이용하여 수행되었다. 양수시험은 일정한 양수율($2,500\;m^3/day$)로 수행되었으며, 양수 시작 후 경과시간에 따른 수위변화 자료를 AQTESOLV 3.5 프로그램에 입력하여 해석하였다. 시험 대수층의 수리전도도는 양수정에서 $1.745{\times}10^{-3}\;m/sec$, 양수정에서 이격거리가 2 m 구간에서는 $2.161{\times}10^{-3}\;m/sec$$2.270{\times}10^{-3}\;m/sec$ 이었으며, 이격거리가 5 m 구간에서는 $2.452{\times}10^{-3}\;m/sec$$2.591{\time}10^{-3}m/sec$로 산정되었다. 그리고, 양수정에서 회복시험 시 Theis(Recovery) 방법에 의해 해석된 수리전도도는 $1.603{\times}10^{-3}\;m/sec$이었다. 양수정에서 관측정의 이격거리(d)에 따른 수리전도도(K) 증가함수는 log K=0.0693 log d-2.671와 log K=0.0817 log d-2.655로 추정되었으며, 결정 계수는 각각 0.965와 0.979로서 매우 높게 나타났다. 따라서 양수정에서의 이격거리가 멀수록 수리전도도가 증가하는 규모종속을 확인하였으며, 또한 시험대수층의 수리전도도가 방사상으로 유사하게 분포하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 수렴흐름 추적자시험의 양수율은 $2,500\;m^3/day$ 이었으며, 2개의 주입정에 염소이온 5 kg을 순간 주입하였다. 염소이온의 농도이력곡선을 작성하여 초기도달시간과 최고농도의 차이를 분석하였으며, 누적질량회수곡선을 통해 양수 후 경과시간에 따른 염소이온의 질량회수율을 분석하였다. 그리고, 염소이온농도 대 누적질량회수율의 이력그래프를 작성하여 누적질량회수율에 따른 염소이온농도의 증가와 감소 변화를 분석하였다. 또한, 염소이온농도의 증가/감소 구간에 대한 선형회귀분석을 수행하여 농도 증가율과 감소율의 변화를 파악하였다. 양수정에서 관측된 경과시간별 염소이온농도 자료를 CATTI 코드의 "Converging Radial Flow With Instantaneous Injection" 해석법에 적용하여 종분산지수를 추정하였다. 양수정에서 이격거리가 2 m인 경우의 종분산지수는 0.4152 m, 이격거리가 5 m인 경우의 종분산지수는 3.2665 m이었다. 따라서 양수정에서 이격거리가 멀수록 종분산지수가 증가하는 규모종속효과를 확인하였으며, 또한 이격거리에 대한 종분산지수의 비는 각각 0.21과 0.65 정도로서 증가하였다.

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Establishing meteorological drought severity considering the level of emergency water supply (비상급수의 규모를 고려한 기상학적 가뭄 강도 수립)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Wang, Wonjoon;Kim, Donghyun;Han, Heechan;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.10
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    • pp.619-629
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    • 2023
  • Recent intensification of climate change has led to an increase in damages caused by droughts. Currently, in Korea, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as a criterion to classify the intensity of droughts. Based on the accumulated precipitation over the past six months (SPI-6), meteorological drought intensities are classified into four categories: concern, caution, alert, and severe. However, there is a limitation in classifying drought intensity solely based on precipitation. To overcome the limitations of the meteorological drought warning criteria based on SPI, this study collected emergency water supply damage data from the National Drought Information Portal (NDIP) to classify drought intensity. Factors of SPI, such as precipitation, and factors used to calculate evapotranspiration, such as temperature and humidity, were indexed using min-max normalization. Coefficients for each factor were determined based on the Genetic Algorithm (GA). The drought intensity based on emergency water supply was used as the dependent variable, and the coefficients of each meteorological factor determined by GA were used as coefficients to derive a new Drought Severity Classification Index (DSCI). After deriving the DSCI, cumulative distribution functions were used to present intensity stage classification boundaries. It is anticipated that using the proposed DSCI in this study will allow for more accurate drought intensity classification than the traditional SPI, supporting decision-making for disaster management personnel.

The Adjustment of Radar Precipitation Estimation Based on the Kriging Method (크리깅 방법을 기반으로 한 레이더 강우강도 오차 조정)

  • Kim, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Min-seong;Lee, Gyu-Won;Kang, Dong-Hwan;Kwon, Byung-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2013
  • Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the most important elements in meteorological and hydrological applications. In this study, we adjusted the QPE from an S-band weather radar based on co-kriging method using the geostatistical structure function of error distribution of radar rainrate. In order to estimate the accurate quantitative precipitation, the error of radar rainrate which is a primary variable of co-kriging was determined by the difference of rain rates from rain gauge and radar. Also, the gauge rainfield, a secondary variable of co-kriging is derived from the ordinary kriging based on raingauge network. The error distribution of radar rain rate was produced by co-kriging with the derived theoretical variogram determined by experimental variogram. The error of radar rain rate was then applied to the radar estimated precipitation field. Locally heavy rainfall case during 6-7 July 2009 is chosen to verify this study. Correlation between adjusted one-hour radar rainfall accumulation and rain gauge rainfall accumulation improved from 0.55 to 0.84 when compared to prior adjustment of radar error with the adjustment of root mean square error from 7.45 to 3.93 mm.