• Title/Summary/Keyword: 노선선택확률

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Route Choice and Diversion Behavior Models of the Drivers Commuting to a University (대학출근운전자의 노선선택 및 전환행태 모형)

  • 김경환;김태형;서현열
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2000
  • 각 지역특성에 맞는 ATIS사업이 실현되기 위해서는 각 지역 통행자들의 노선선택 및 전환행태를 정확히 파악하는 것이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 경상대를 연구대상으로 하여 대학출근운전자들의 노선선택 및 전환 행태를 정확히 파악하고 이들을 모형화하였다. 본 연구 대상지의 경우, 2개의 주 출근노선이 있으며 하나는 시내통행노선(노선 1)이고 다른 하나는 시외곽 통행노선(노선 2)이다. 노선1은 노선2에 비해 연장은 짧은 반면에 통행시간은 길며 신호교차로수. 우회전수도 많다. 먼저, 운전자의 노선선택행태모형을 통해 해석된 결과를 보면 시내노선에 대한 외곽노선의 상대적 효용이 아주 높으며, 전체적으로 출근운전자들은 짧은 통행시간을 선호하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 출근소요시간이 길고 라디오정보의 이용빈도가 높을수록 시내노선을 이용할 확률이 크며, 반면에 남성과 교직원인 운전자는 외곽노선을 이용할 확률이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 다음으로 행태조사에 기초한 노선전환행태모형을 통해 해석된 결과를 보면 연령, 출근시간, 라디오정보의 이용빈도들이 전환성향에 유의한 영향을 가져오는 것으로 분석되었다. 가상의 교통정보제공시의 운전자의 노선전환을 모형화한 노선전환의사모형에서는 대개의 정보에 대해 운전자가 노선전환을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 모형에서 지체길이에 따른 전환경향을 보면 지체의 길이가 길수록 전환경향이 높아 30분정도의 지체길이에서는 반드시 변경하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구대상 운전자의 경우 전반적으로 기술적인 유고(Incident)정보보다는 정량적인 지체정보에 더 민감한 것으로 나타났다.

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Study on Multi-modal Transit Network Assignment with Dial Algorithm (다이알 알고리즘을 이용한 다수단 대중교통 노선배정기법에 관한 연구)

  • 이재섭;김익기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2001
  • 본 논문의 목적은 대중교통 노선배정 시에 여러 수단간의 환승을 고려함으로써 다수단 대중교통망 내에서 수단선택과 노선선택을 동시에 수행할 수 있도록 확률적인 통행배분(traffic assignment) 모형의 하나인 다이알 알고리즘을 응용할 것을 제시하고 그 알고리즘의 속성을 정확하게 규명하는데 있다 승용차의 확률적 통행배분모형으로 잘 알려져 있는 Dial 알고리즘은 로짓모형에 기초한 것이므로 다수단간의 대중교통 수단선택과 노선선택과 같은 선택 행태를 동시에 설명할 수 있는 모형적 특성을 기본적으로 내재하고 있다. 본 연구에서 제시한 대중교통 노선선택에 적용될 수 있도록 수정된 다이알 알고리즘은 기존의 결정적 대중교 통 노선배정 모형들의 단점을 극복할 수 있는 특성을 갖고 있다. 즉 결정적 대중교통 노선배정모형은 기종점간 최단경로에 교통량을 전랑배분(All-or-Nothing)하여 통행자들의 행태적 속성을 제대로 반영하지 못하고 있으며, 다수단 대중교통망 내에서 환승을 포함한 복합 대중교통수단의 선택을 효용극대화 이론에 기초하지 않고 최소비용노선에 전량배분하는 모형의 한계점을 갖고 있다. 이러한 결정적 대중교통 노선배정모형의 단점을 수정된 다이알 알고리즘은 개선할 수가 있다. 본 연구에서는 알고리즘의 특성을 파악하기 위한 모의실험으로 Sioux Falls 형태의 대중교통 네트워크를 이용하여 기존의 알고리즘과 비교 분석하였다. 분석의 탄력성을 갖고 있는 수정된 대중교통 다이알 알고리즘이 현실적 대중교통 통행패턴을 기존 모형보다 합리적으로 설명할 수 있을 것으로 보이며, 특히 다수단 대중교통망이 형성된 대도시의 대중교통 정책분석에 적합한 기법이 될 수 있을 것으로 고려된다.

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A Stochastic Transit Assignment Model for Intercity Rail Network (지역간 철도의 확률적 통행배정모형 구측 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Seok;Kim, Kyoung-Tae;Lim, Chong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.488-498
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    • 2009
  • The characteristics of intercity rail network are different from those of public transit network in urban area. In this paper, we proposed a new transit assignment model which is generalized form of deterministic assignment model by introducing line selection probability on route section. This model consider various characteristics of intercity rail and simplify network expansion for appling search algorithms developed in road assignment model. We showed the model availability by comparing with existing models using virtual networks. The tests on a small scale network show that this model is superior to existing models for predicting intercity rail demand.

Stochastic traffic assignment Models for Dynamic Route Guidance (동적 길잡이 장치를 위한 확률적 통행 배정 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 이승재
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.12a
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 1995
  • 첨단 교통 체계(Intelligent Transport Systems)의 중요한 요소인 첨단 교통 관리 체계(Advanced Traffic Management Systems)의 성공 여부는 교통정보를 어떻게 제공하고 통제하는데 의존하다. 즉, 정보 제공 방식과 이데 대한 운전자의 반응을 정확하게 파악하고 예측하여야 ITS를 성공적으로 구축할 수 있다. 이 논문에서는 동적 차량 길잡이 장치의 효용성을 평가하기 위한 확률적 통행배정모형을 개발하는 것이다. 개발된 통행배정모형은 운전자의 동적행태조정(Dynamic Behavioural Adjustment)을 명백하게 확솔 과정(Stochastic Process)으로 표현하여 기존의 모형에 비해 통해자들의 행태를 더욱 실제적으로 반영한다. 특히, 각 통행자들에게 K개의 최소경로시간을 제공해줌으로 인하여 통행자의 노선선택에 대한 선택폭을 증가시켜준다. 통행경로의 선택폭의 증가는 쟁점으로 대두되는 문제(교통항제소에서는 차량 길잡이 보유 운전자에게 체계최적(System Optimum)와 이용자최적(User Equilibrium)중 어떠한 원칙하에 교통정보를 제공하여야 하는가에 대한 해결 방안이다. 왜냐하면 만약 교통급제소에서 운전자에게 통행정보를 체계 최상을 하기 위해 정보를 제공하고자 하면, 길잡이 장착 운전자는 더 이상 제공된 정보를 따르지 않고 자기 스스로의 경에 의해 이용자 최상을 달성하고자 할 것이다. 이 논문의 목적은 이러한 복잡한 통행자의 경로선택행위를 반영하는 확률적 평형 통행 배정 모형을 여러가지 통계기법을 도입하여 개발하는 것이다.

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Generating Multiple Paths by Using Multi-label Vine-building Shortest Path Algorithm (수정형 덩굴망 최단경로 탐색 알고리즘을 이용한 다경로 생성 알고리즘의 개발)

  • Kim, Ik-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.2 s.73
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    • pp.121-130
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    • 2004
  • In these days, multiple-path generation method is highly demanded in practice and research areas, which can represents realistically travelers behavior in choosing possible alternative paths. The multiple-path generation algorithm is one of the key components for policy analysis related to ATIS, DRGS and ATMS in ITS. This study suggested a method to generate multiple Possible paths from an origin to a destination. The approach of the suggested method is different from an other existing methods(K-shortest path algorithm) such as link elimination approach, link penalty approach and simulation approach. The result of the multi-label vine-building shortest path algorithm(MVA) by Kim (1998) and Kim(2001) was used to generate multiple reasonable possible paths with the concept of the rational upper boundary. Because the MVA algorithm records the cost, back-node and back-back node of the minimum path from the origin to the concerned node(intersection) for each direction to the node, many potential possible paths can be generated by tracing back. Among such large number of the potential possible paths, the algorithm distinguishes reasonable alternative paths from the unrealistic potential possible paths by using the concept of the rational upper boundary. The study also shows the very simple network examples to help the concept of the suggested path generation algorithm.

Effect of uncertain information on drivers' decision making (Application of Prospect Theory) (불확실한 정보에 대한 운전자의 의사결정행태 연구)

  • CHO, Hye-Jin;KIM, Kang-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2003
  • This paper explores the way and the extent to which drivers' route choice was influenced by uncertain information. In particular, this paper investigates the effect of qualitative information on route choice when drivers face a choice with different degrees of uncertain information. The SP survey was conducted and route choice legit models were estimated. We also applied Prospect Theory to the analysis of drivers' decision making under uncertain information. The main findings are firstly, drivers tend to prefer a route with information than(to) one without information. This indicated that providing charge information encouraged drivers to choose the routes for which information is provided in preference to those for which it is not provided. Secondly, drivers also prefer a route with a certain and precise information over one with uncertain and imprecise information. Thirdly, when the information is given as a range, the size of the range of the information influenced route choice slightly and as the range of the charge increases, the route becomes slightly less unattractive. Fourthly, when the information is given as a range, drivers' route choices are influenced more by the median value of the ranges than by the size of the overall ranges of the information. Application of Prospect Theory to the results explains the way drivers may be interpreting the choice situation and how they make a route choice in response to uncertain information. The results of this paper implicate that drivers' decision making under uncertainty seem to be very complicated and flexible, depending on the way drivers interpret the choice situation. Therefore, it is recommended to apply wider related theories to the analysis of the drivers' behaviour.

A Deterministic Transit Assignment Model for Intercity Rail Network (지역간 철도의 결정적 통행배정모형 구축 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Tae;Rhee, Sung-Mo;Kwon, Yong-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.550-561
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this paper is to propose a new transit assignment model for intercity rail networks. The characteristics of intercity rail are different from that of public transit in urban area. Line selection probability on route section is introduced to include the characteristics of intercity rail into transit assignment model. Network expansion is more simplified by a assumption line selection probability is externally given. The generalized cost is used to decide the volume of each transit line in most of existing transit assignment models. But, many variables have influence on the volume of each line such as time schedule of transit lines, inter-station distance, passengers' income, seasonal variation of demand and regional characteristics. The influence of these variables can be considered to decide the volume of each line by introducing line selection probability on route section. The tests on a small scale network show that the model proposed in this paper is superior to existing models for predicting intercity rail demand. Proposed model is suitable to consider the complicated fare structure of intercity rail and to draw inter-station demand directly as a result of assignment procedure.

Day-to-day dynamic combined model on the evaluation of traveller's traffic information for multi-mode and multi-class (다수단 다계층 통행정보제공에 따른 일별동적결합모형 개발 및 평가)

  • 이승재;손의영;김인경
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 1999
  • The Purpose of this Paper is the development of the day-to-day dynamic combined model on the evaluation of traveller's traffic information for multi-mode and multi-class environments. Information is assumed to be provided for multi-mode such as bus and automobile. and multi-class such as a driver with and without route guidance equipment when they depart for their trips. The information provision strategies have been developed in the base of user equilibrium, system optimum and in between them. The Sioux Falls network is used for the evaluation of the model and information provision strategies. In the numerical analysis, a Braess' paradox for the information provision, which is the increase of travel time even though the number of information usage level and user are increased, has been occurred so that these kinds of information strategies should be implemented with special care.

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Transit Frequency Optimization with Variable Demand Considering Transfer Delay (환승지체 및 가변수요를 고려한 대중교통 운행빈도 모형 개발)

  • Yu, Gyeong-Sang;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Jeon, Gyeong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.147-156
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    • 2009
  • We present a methodology for modeling and solving the transit frequency design problem with variable demand. The problem is described as a bi-level model based on a non-cooperative Stackelberg game. The upper-level operator problem is formulated as a non-linear optimization model to minimize net cost, which includes operating cost, travel cost and revenue, with fleet size and frequency constraints. The lower-level user problem is formulated as a capacity-constrained stochastic user equilibrium assignment model with variable demand, considering transfer delay between transit lines. An efficient algorithm is also presented for solving the proposed model. The upper-level model is solved by a gradient projection method, and the lower-level model is solved by an existing iterative balancing method. An application of the proposed model and algorithm is presented using a small test network. The results of this application show that the proposed algorithm converges well to an optimal point. The methodology of this study is expected to contribute to form a theoretical basis for diagnosing the problems of current transit systems and for improving its operational efficiency to increase the demand as well as the level of service.

Development of A Dynamic Departure Time Choice Model based on Heterogeneous Transit Passengers (이질적 지하철승객 기반의 동적 출발시간선택모형 개발 (도심을 목적지로 하는 단일 지하철노선을 중심으로))

  • 김현명;임용택;신동호;백승걸
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.119-134
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    • 2001
  • This paper proposed a dynamic transit vehicle simulation model and a dynamic transit passengers simulation model, which can simultaneously simulate the transit vehicles and passengers traveling on a transit network, and also developed an algorithm of dynamic departure time choice model based on individual passenger. The proposed model assumes that each passenger's behavior is heterogeneous based on stochastic process by relaxing the assumption of homogeneity among passengers and travelers have imperfect information and bounded rationality to more actually represent and to simulate each passenger's behavior. The proposed model integrated a inference and preference reforming procedure into the learning and decision making process in order to describe and to analyze the departure time choices of transit passengers. To analyze and evaluate the model an example transit line heading for work place was used. Numerical results indicated that in the model based on heterogeneous passengers the travelers' preference influenced more seriously on the departure time choice behavior, while in the model based on homogeneous passengers it does not. The results based on homogeneous passengers seemed to be unrealistic in the view of rational behavior. These results imply that the aggregated travel demand models such as the traditional network assignment models based on user equilibrium, assuming perfect information on the network, homogeneity and rationality, might be different from the real dynamic travel demand patterns occurred on actual network.

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