• Strategy21
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• s.33
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• pp.222-252
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• 2014

이 논문의 주요 목적은 중국의 남중국해에 대한 정책을 평가하는 것이며, 해양갈등 및 위기 상황과 관련된 사건을 관리하기 위한 중국의 접근을 분석하는 것이다. 주된 핵심은 중국의 남중국해에 대한 영유권 주장, 중국과 남중국해 인접국과의 분쟁 그리고 중국과 베트남 간 사례를 통해 분석된 분쟁 관리에 있어 중국의 행태, 접근방식 그리고 시각이다. 중국과 베트남과 같은 양자간 분쟁에 있어 남중국해 통킹만에서의 분쟁해결 사례는 강조될 수 있는 사례이며, 이는 중국이 인접국과의 분쟁을 공식적으로 해결한 첫 번째 사례였다. 결국 이 논문은 이를 근간으로 향후 중국이 어떻게 남중국해 현황을 관리할 것인가에 대해 넓은 논쟁을 결론으로 제시하고 있다.

• Strategy21
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• s.40
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• pp.235-254
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• 2016

최근 남중국해(South China Sea: 南中國海)가 동아시아 해양안보의 중심 이슈로 대두되고 있다. 아울러 남중국해 문제가 당사국 간 해양분쟁 및 해양경계획정 이슈만이 아닌, 제3자 개입 등의 다자간 해양분쟁과 대립으로 확산되는 매우 복잡한 양상을 보이고 있다. 이러한 남중국해 해양문제는 미국과 중국 간의 강대국 경쟁구도가 적용되어 힘의 시현을 위한 대결 국면이 되는 반면, 중국이 전통적 해양이익을 구단선(nine dash line)을 근거로 주장하면서 국제법 적용 문제에 따른 법적 문제의 성격을 나타내고 있다. 이에 따라 최근 남중국해 상황은 '항해의 자유(Freedom of Navigation)' 보장을 주장하는 미국, 역사적 권리 보장을 위해 일반적 조치를 강행하고 해군력을 증강시키는 중국, 그리고 남중국해를 경유하는 수많은 선박들의 항해 안전(navigational safety)을 강조하는 역내 국가 간 의견이 표출되는 복잡한 양상으로 나타나고 있다. 특히 최근 중국이 상설중재재판소의 남중국해 중재판결을 무시하여 국제법 적용이 어려운 가운데 포괄적 동아시아 해양안보 차원에서 남중국해 이슈 해결을 위한 새로운 접근방안이 요구되고 있다. 이는 남중국해에 대한 당사국 간 평화적 분쟁 해결과 더불어, 강대국 간의 전략적 함의에 의한 해결이 병행되어야 함을 의미한다.

• Maritime Security
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.149-173
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• 2020

While the United States and other Western states are in trouble with COVID-19 crisis, China is continuing its aggressive ocean expansion with its Gray-zone strategy. The Gray-zone strategy, which China uses around the South China Sea, refers to a strategy that promotes a change in international politics by creating an unclear state, neither war or peace. China, which is trying to expand its influence across East Asia, will also try to project a Gray zone strategy on the Korean Peninsula. The possible scenarios are as follows: 1) South Korea is accidentally involved in a dispute in the South China Sea, 2) Military conflicts between South Korea and China is caused by illegal fishing of Chinese boats in Yellow Sea, 3) China tries to interfere with Socotra Rock, 4) Unlikely, but possible in the future that China induce the military conflicts between Korea and Japan on the Dokdo issue. In order to cope with these scenarios, Korea should prepare the following measures from a long-term perspective: the creation of an Asian maritime safety fleet, the integ rated operation of the navy and the coast guard in the framework of the national fleet, and strengthening the conflict control system for China's provocations.

• Maritime Security
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.273-310
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• 2020

This study aims at empirically analyzing the overall mechanism of the "Gray Zone Strategy", which has begun to be used as one of Chinese major maritime security strategies in maritime conflicts surrounding the South China Sea and East China Sea since early 2010, and comparing the resulting conflict patterns in those reg ions. To this end, I made the following two hypotheses about Chinese gray zone strategy. The hypotheses that I have argued in this study are the first, "The marine gray zone strategy used by China shows different structures of implementation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, which are major conflict areas.", the second, "Therefore, the patterns of disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea also show a difference." In order to examine this, I will classify Chinese gray zone strategy mechanisms multi-dimensionally in large order, 1) conflict trends and frequency of strategy execution, 2) types and strengths of strategy, 3) actors of strategy execution, and 4) response methods of counterparts. So, I tried to collect data related to this based on quantitative modeling to test these. After that, about 10 years of data pertaining to this topic were processed, and a research model was designed with a new categorization and operational definition of gray zone strategies. Based on this, I was able to successfully test all the hypotheses by successfully comparing the comprehensive mechanisms of the gray zone strategy used by China and the conflict patterns between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In the conclusion, the verified results were rementioned with emphasizing the need to overcome the security vulnerabilities in East Asia that could be caused by China's marine gray zone strategy. This study, which has never been attempted so far, is of great significance in that it clarified the intrinsic structure in which China's gray zone strategy was implemented using empirical case studies, and the correlation between this and maritime conflict patterns was investigated.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.31-76
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• 2018

This article explores why the two Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam and the Philippines, choose different strategies to cope with the Chinese threat. Despite the evident Chinese threat in the South China Sea, Vietnam has not meaningfully expanded the military cooperation with the United States, whereas the Philippines, ironically, has distanced itself with its ally, the United States. Existing studies on the topic does not offer a satisfactory explanation. We assign that two cases are examples of "underbalancing" - the failure of balancing even though there is an evident threat. Furthermore, we demonstrate the difference between cases of the Philippines and Vietnam by arguing that the number of veto players affects the outcome of foreign policy, underbalancing of two countries. The Philippines has only one veto player, the president, hence its response to external threats is incoherent. On the other hand, the number of veto players in Vietnam is more than one and those players demand negotiation among them on the matter of foreign policy. Upon analyses on two cases we argue that the former is the case of underbalancing caused by a lack of policy stability, while the latter is the case of underbalancing caused by a lack of policy responsiveness.

• Maritime Security
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.115-140
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• 2021

The South China Sea is a significant maritime shipping route with abundant submarine and fishing resources. Over 40,000 ships pass through the South China Sea every year, constituting around 50% of global shipping and 66% of crude oil. In particular, 30% of Korea's import cargo and 90% of energy imports pass through this body of water. The US and China realized the significance of this sea area from early on and are embodying national interest through maritime security at the national strategic level by implementing the 'Indo-Pacific' and 'One Belt One Road' strategies, respectively. Such geopolitical conflicts are manifested in the 'freedom of navigation operations' by the US in the South China Sea. Despite its significance, there is a lack of studies in Korea on the freedom of navigation operations, and most previous studies only focus on analyzing international law and agreements. This article examines the origin and background of the strategic perception of the freedom of navigation operations and derives implications for the peace and security of the Korean Peninsula as the strategic competition between the US and China continues.

• Strategy21
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• s.46
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• pp.239-276
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• 2020

The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

• Strategy21
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• s.42
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• pp.154-195
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• 2017

This paper is to analyse conflict between the US and China over the South China Sea and Korea's responses. To this end the paper is composed of 6 chapters titled instruction; the current status of South China Sea sovereignty disputes; changes in US and Chinese maritime security strategies and the strategic values of the South China Sea; key issues and future prospects for US-China conflicts in the South China Sea; South Korea's security and diplomatic responses; and conclusion. The recent East Asian maritime security issue has evolved into a global issue of supremacy between the US and China, beyond conflicts over territorial disputes and demarcation among the countries in the region. China is pursuing offensive ocean policy to expand economic growth. The core of the maritime order that the United States intends to pursue is the freedom of navigation in the oceans and the maintenance of maritime access. China is making artificial islands in the South China Sea, claiming the sovereignty of these islands, building strategic bases in East Asia, and securing routes. The United States has developed several "Freedom of Navigation Operations" to neutralize the declaration of the territorial sea surrounding Chinese artificial islands. We can not be free from marine conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Regarding the South China Sea dispute, it is expected that the strategic competition and conflict between the two countries will intensify due to China's failure to make concessions of core interests and adherence to the US compliance with international norms. In the midst of conflict over the South China Sea, we need a harmonious balance between our alliance security and economic diplomacy. We must continue our efforts to strengthen the ROK-US alliance but not to make China an enemy. Considering the significant impacts of the oceans on the survival and prosperity of the nation, we must continue to develop our interest in the oceans, appropriate investments and tactical strategies.