• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.179-179
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• 2018

최근 기후변화에 대한 관심이 급증하면서 기후변화로 인한 여러 가지 문제점들이 드러나며 가뭄에 대한 관심도 증가하고 있다. 수자원 관리에 있어 가뭄 예측은 반드시 필요한 항목이다. 우리나라는 기후변화로 인해 강수량과 기온이 변화할 것으로 보이며, 이는 증발산량의 변화를 초래한다. 증발산량은 가뭄에 대한 중요한 인자 중 하나이며, 따라서 효율적인 수자원 관리를 위해 잠재증발산량(Potential Evapotranspiration, PET)의 변화를 예측하는 것은 반드시 필요하다고 할 수 있다. 미래의 잠재증발산량을 분석하고 예측하기 위해서는 주로 기후모델을 이용한 미래예측자료가 사용된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 다중 RCMs를 이용하여 미래 잠재증발산량의 변화를 추정하고자 하였다. 독일의 전지구기후모델(Global Climate Model)인 MPI-ESM-LR를 기반으로 다양한 지역기후모델(Regional Climate Model)로부터 생산된 미래 자료를 사용하였다. 사용된 RCM은 MM5, RSM, WRF이며, RCP 8.5 시나리오에 대하여 부산 지점에 해당하는 격자로부터 잠재증발산량 추정을 위한 기온, 풍속, 일사량, 상대습도를 추출하였다. 추출된 각 기상자료에 대해 Penman 방법을 적용하여 미래 잠재증발산량을 산정한 후 Quantile Mapping 기법을 이용하여 편의보정을 수행하였다. 산정된 미래 잠재증발산량을 분석한 결과, 부산지점의 경우 미래 잠재증발산량이 현재대비 다소 증가 할 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 이에 대한 대비가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.586-586
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• 2015

전 세계적으로 기후변화가 심화됨에 따라 기상이변으로 인한 홍수, 가뭄, 태풍 등의 기상재해가 급격히 증가하고 있으며, 피해규모는 물론 생명과 재산피해도 증가하는 추세이다. 기후변화에 의한 온도상승은 증기압을 더 증가시켜 홍수를 유발할 수 있는 강우의 잠재력을 증가시키고 있다(IPCC, 2001). 즉, 수문순환 과정을 빠르게 진행시키고 극한 수문사상의 빈도를 증가시키고 있기 때문에 기후변화가 홍수 재해 및 관리에 미치는 영향을 파악하고, 그에 따른 구조적, 비구조적 대책을 수립하는 것은 미래 치수계획에 있어 아주 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 IPCC 5차 평가보고서(AR5, 2013)에서 제시한 RCP 시나리오를 이용하여 경안천 유역의 홍수 범람을 모의하고 이에 따른 홍수피해액을 산정하였다. RCP4.5 시나리오와 RCP8.5 시나리오를 사용 하였으며, 목표기간별로(Reference : 1971~2005년, 목표기간I : 2006~2040년, 목표기간II : 2041~2070년, 목표기간III : 2071~2100년) 강우 유출분석 모형에 적용해 미래 기후변화가 경안천 유역의 홍수범람에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 다차원홍수피해산정법(MD-FDA)을 통해 홍수 피해액을 추정하였다. 이를 통해 끊임없이 발생하는 자연재해로부터 보다 경제적 효과적으로 홍수피해 저감효과를 증대시킬수 있는 기초자료로 활용하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.289-289
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• 2022

최근 기후변화의 영향으로 인해 가뭄과 같은 자연재해의 발생빈도가 증가하고 있다. 가뭄은 지속 기간이 길고 정량적인 피해 규모 및 심도 파악이 어려우며, 사회, 경제적 피해와 함께 농업 시스템 전반에 심각한 영향을 줄 수 있는 재해이다. 국내 가뭄 발생 경향은 2000년 이후 급증하고 있으며, 2015년 및 2017년의 경우 이례적인 극심한 가뭄이 발생하는 등 2000년 이전과는 다른 경향을 보이고 있다. 따라서, 미래 기후변화에 따른 국내 가뭄 발생에 대비하기 위해서는 장기적인 가뭄 전망이 요구된다. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6)에 의해 개발된 공통사회경제경로 SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 시나리오는 사회 및 경제적 요소를 내포하여 미래의 완화 및 적응 기반 기후변화 시나리오로 정의된다. 본 연구에서는 SSP 시나리오를 활용하여 미래 강수자료를 구축하여 기상학적 가뭄지수, SPI (Standaridzed Precipitation Index)를 산정하고 가뭄 특성을 분석하고자 한다. 강수자료의 경우 국내 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) 기상관측소 기준 56개소를 대상으로 1973년부터 2021년까지 49개년 자료를 수집하였으며, SSP 시나리오와 SPI를 활용하여 국내 지역을 대상으로 미래 기후변화에 따른 가뭄 전망을 수행하고자 한다. SPI는 시간척도에 따라 3개월, 6개월, 9개월, 12개월 시간척도를 적용하고, SSP 시나리오의 경우 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 시나리오를 적용하여 미래 기후변화 시나리오별 가뭄을 분석하고자 한다.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.189-199
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• 2013

Using meteorological data collected from 60 observation stations during the last 38 years from 1973 through 2010, we have analysed the occurrence frequencies of abnormally low or high temperature leading to agrometeorological disasters. The analysis was made for 20 agro-climatic zones that had already been divided by the Rural Development Administration before. Since 1973, there have been an average of 1.8 frequency of abnormal air temperature occurrence per year. The frequency of abnormally high temperature occurrence has increased from an average of 0.2 per year in 1970s to 1.0 in 2000s. However, the frequency of abnormally low temperature occurrence has decreased from an average of 2.06 per year in 1970s to 0.63 in 2000s, which might be able to explain a recent global warming. The highest frequency of abnormally high temperature occurrence appeared in Taebaek Alpine zone with an average of 0.76 frequency per year. Meanwhile, abnormally low temperature was the highest in Western Sobaek Inland zone with an average of 1.43 frequency per year.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.947-980
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• 2012

This study analyzes the long-run impacts of climate change on Korean agriculture and economy. We estimate the impacts of climate change on the productivities of major agricultural products including rice, dairy and livestock using both a simulation approach and a semiparametric econometric model. The former predicts a decline in productivity while the latter predicts an increase in productivity due to climate change, especially for rice. A recursive dynamic CGE model is used to analyze the general equilibrium impacts of productivity change under the two different scenarios, derived from the two productivity analysis approaches. The loss of GDP in 2050 is 0.2% or 0.02% of total GDP depending on the scenario. It is shown that the losses in dairy and livestock sectors are larger than that in rice sector, although the losses in those two non-rice sectors have been ignored by most existing works.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.293-299
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• 2018

In this study, a new technique for evaluating the flood vulnerability of river banks is proposed. For this purpose, flood quantities of the basin were estimated based on the future climate change scenarios and the infiltration stability was evaluated by analyzing the infiltration behavior using SEEP/W which is a 2D groundwater infiltration model of the levee. The size of the river levee was investigated. The size of river levee was investigated by selecting the target area. The safety factor of the levee was analyzed considering the current flood level of the levee and the flood level considering the climate change. The factor needed to analyze the levee vulnerability was derived. We analyzed the vulnerability of the levee considering the change of the levee level according to the climate change scenarios. Levee Flood Vulnerability Index (LFVI) were used to evaluate the vulnerability of the levee.

• Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.923-934
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• 2019

This study investigates correlations between the impacts of urban and building form and microclimate on the energy consumption of buildings. It applies microscopic elements such as urban form, building form and character, and microclimate as factors in the energy consumption of buildings. To this end, the energy consumption of selected buildings in Seoul in August of 2017 was analyzed. Based on microscopic elements within a radius of 500 meters of 23 Automated Weather Station (AWS) measurement points selected by the Meteorological Office of the City of Seoul. With the exception of a few elements, the urban form and character elements demonstrate a significant relation to the energy consumption of buildings. It is also found that microclimate elements such as wind speed and humidity are pertinent to the energy consumption of buildings. It is helpful in that it suggests results for establishing more effective policies and strategies for enhancing the sustainability and resilience of cities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.12
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• pp.1091-1102
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• 2009

This study developed an integrated approach to climate change and urbanization impact assessment by linking models of SDSM (statistical downscaling model), HSPF (hydrological simulation program?Fortran) and ICM (impervious cover model). A case study of the Anyangcheon watershed illustrated how the proposed framework can be used to analyze the impacts of climate change and urbanization in terms of flood control, water security and water quality. The evaluation criteria were the variations of flow and pollutant concentration duration curves. In this study, nine scenarios including three climate (present condition, A1B and A2) and three urbanization scenarios were analyzed using HSPF model. As a result, climate change is a large influence on the flowrate and the urbanization affects the pollutant concentration. Therefore, the impacts of both climate change and urbanization must be included into the watershed management and water resources planning for sustainable development.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.305-314
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• 2004

Climate change mainly due to the increase of green house gases cause different patterns of water cycle within the basin. However, it is common that current planning and management practices do not consider the effect of the climate change. So, this study evaluated the effect of climate change on the water circulation within the watershed. This study used several GCM simulations for the double $CO_2$condition for the generation of temperature and rainfall series using the Markov chain. Daily runoff series for 100 years were generated using a rainfall-runoff model. As results. annual temperature increase by ＋3.2 ∼＋4.6$^{\circ}C$, annual precipitation change －7 ∼ ＋8 %, annual runoff change －14 ∼ ＋7 %, and potential evapotranspiration amount change ＋3 ∼＋4 % for the change of 1 $^{\circ}C$ are found to be expected depending on GCM simulations. Even though the simulation results are very dependent on the GCM predictions considered, overall variability of runoff is expected to become higher than the current state.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.371-381
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• 2018

Domestic agricultural reservoir dam facilities are difficult to manage water resources because of the in summer rainfall increase due to aging and climate change, it is expected that the dam risk will be large due to the overflow. In this study, author selected study basin in order to evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities. And calculated the probable rainfall, Present PMP, Future PMP considering climate change. Also, author carried quantitative analysis out for increasing rainfall due to climate change, analyze freeboard assessment of agricultural reservoir by calculate flood discharge, reservoir flood routing according to rainfall scenarios. As a result of evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities using Future PMP considering climate change, Gosam, Kumkwang, Miho, Cheongcheon reservoir had the Highest Water Level over the design flood level, it is analyzed that it would be vulnerable to overflow risk.