Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.12.1091

Effect of Climate Change and Urbanization on Flow and BOD Concentration Duration Curves  

Park, Kyung-Shin (Hyundai Development Company)
Chung, Eun-Sung (Seoul National University, Engineering Research Institute)
Kim, Sang-Ug (National Assembly Research Service, Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs Team)
Lee, Kil-Seong (Seoul National University, Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.42, no.12, 2009 , pp. 1091-1102 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study developed an integrated approach to climate change and urbanization impact assessment by linking models of SDSM (statistical downscaling model), HSPF (hydrological simulation program?Fortran) and ICM (impervious cover model). A case study of the Anyangcheon watershed illustrated how the proposed framework can be used to analyze the impacts of climate change and urbanization in terms of flood control, water security and water quality. The evaluation criteria were the variations of flow and pollutant concentration duration curves. In this study, nine scenarios including three climate (present condition, A1B and A2) and three urbanization scenarios were analyzed using HSPF model. As a result, climate change is a large influence on the flowrate and the urbanization affects the pollutant concentration. Therefore, the impacts of both climate change and urbanization must be included into the watershed management and water resources planning for sustainable development.
Keywords
Climate change; Duration curve; HSPF; ICM; SDSM; Urbanization;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 12  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 김병식, 김형수, 서병하, 김남원 (2004). “기후변화가 용담댐 유역의 유출에 미치는 영향.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제37권, 제2호, pp. 185-193   과학기술학회마을   DOI
2 김병식, 서병하, 김남원 (2003). “전이함수모형과 일기발생모형을 이용한 유역규모 기후변화시나리오의 작성.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제36권, 제3호, pp. 345-363
3 정일원, 배덕효, 임은순 (2007). “수자원에 대한 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 고해상도 시나리오 생산(II): 유역별 유출시나리오 구축.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제40권, 제3호, pp. 205-214   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
4 김경태, 정은성, 김상욱, 이길성, 성진영 (2009). “우리나라 오염총량관리제도의 개선 및 적용: 1. 안양천 유역의 오염부하량 산정.” 수질보전 한국물환경학회지, 한국물환경학회, 제25권, 제6호, pp. 972-978
5 김웅태, 이동률, 유철상 (2004). “기후변화에 따른 대청댐 유역의 유출 영향 분석.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제37권, 제4호, pp. 305-314   과학기술학회마을   DOI
6 배덕효, 정일원, 권원태 (2007). “수자원에 대한 기후변화 영향평가를 위한 고해상도 시나리오 생산(I): 유역별 기후시나리오 구축.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제40권, 제3호, pp. 191-204   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
7 신사철 (2000). “기후변화 시나리오에 의한 하천 유황의 해석.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제33권, 제5호, pp. 623-634   과학기술학회마을
8 안소라, 이용준, 박근애, 김성준 (2008). “미래토지이용 및 기후변화에 따른 하천유역의 유출특성 분석.” 대한토목학회논문집, 대한토목학회, 제28권, 제2B호, pp. 215-224
9 안소라, 박민지, 박근애, 김성준 (2009). “기후변화가 경안천 유역의 수문요소에 미치는 영향 평가.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제42권, 제1호, pp. 33-50   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
10 이길성, 정은성, 신문주 (2006). “기후, 지하수 취수 및 토지이용 변화의 건기 총유출량에 대한 영향.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제39권, 제11호, pp. 923-934   과학기술학회마을   DOI
11 임혁진, 권형중, 배덕효, 김성준 (2006). “CA-Markov 기법을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 소양강댐 유역의 수문분석.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제39권, 제5호, pp. 453-466   과학기술학회마을   DOI
12 정상만, 서형덕, 김형수, 한규하 (2008). “기후인자의 변화에 따른 대청댐유역의 유출민감도 모의평가.” 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제41권, 제11호, pp. 1095-1106   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
13 정은성, 이준석, 이길성, 김상욱, 김경태 (2007). “HSPF 모형을 이용한 안양천 유역의 물순환 건전화 대안기술 효과분석.” 수질보전 한국물환경학회지, 한국물환경학회, 제23권, 제6호, pp. 973-984
14 정은성, 김경태, 김상욱, 이길성 (2008). “하천유지유량을 이용한 일최대 오염허용부하량 산정 방안.” 수질보전 한국물환경학회지, 한국물환경학회, 제24권, 제3호, pp. 325-335
15 Asselman, N.E., Middelkoop, H., and van Dijk, P.M. (2003). “The impact of changes in climate and land use on soil erosion, transport and deposition of suspended sediment in the River Rhine.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 17, pp. 3225-3244   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Bicknell, B.R., Imhoff, J.C., Kittle, J.L. Jr., Jobes, T.H., and Donigian, A.S. Jr. (2001). Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) User's Manual for Version 12. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Athens, GA
17 Bronstert, A., Niehoff, D., and Burger, G. (2002). “Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: Present knowledge and modeling capabilities.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 16, pp. 509-529   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Chang, H. (2003). “Basin hydrologic response to changes in climate and land use: The Conestoga River basin, Pennsylvania.” Physical Geography, Vol. 24, pp. 222-247   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Cameron, D. (2006). “An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the Northeast of Scotland, UK (with Uncertainty).” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 328, pp. 212-226   DOI   ScienceOn
20 Center for Watershed Protection (2005). Urban Subwatershed Restoration Manual Series: 1. An Integrated Framework to Restore Small Urban Watersheds Version 2.0. Center for Watershed Protection, Ellicott City, MD
21 Cuo, L., Lettenmaier, D.P., Alberti, M., and Richey, J.E. (2009). “Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 23, pp. 907-933   DOI   ScienceOn
22 Ewen, J., and Paarkin, G. (1996). “Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 175, pp. 583-594   DOI   ScienceOn
23 Juckem, P.F., Hunt, R.J., Anderson, M.P., and Robertson, D.M. (2008). “Effects of climate and land management change on streamflow in the driftless area of Wisconsin.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 355, pp. 123-130   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Kite, G.W., Dalton, A., and Dion, K. (1994). “Simulation of streamflow in a macro-scale watershed using GCM Data.” Water Resources Research, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 1546-1559   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Kojiri, T., Hamaguchi, T., and Ode, M. (2008). “Assessment of global warming impacts on water resources and ecology of a river basin in Japan.” Journal of Hydro-environment Research, Vol. 1, pp. 164-175   DOI   ScienceOn
26 Legesse, D., Vallet-Coulomb, C., and Gasse, F. (2003). “Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: Case study South Central Ethiopia.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 275, pp. 63-85   DOI   ScienceOn
27 Kuhl, S.C., and Miller, J.R. (1992). “Seasonal river runoff calculated from a global atmospheric model.” Water Resources Research, Vol. 28, No. 8, pp. 2029-2039   DOI
28 Leander, R., Buishand, T.A., Hurk, B.J.J.M., and Wit, M.J.M. (2008). “Estimated changes in flood quantiles of the River Meuse from resampling of regional climate model output.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 351, pp. 331-343   DOI   ScienceOn
29 Lee, K.S., and Chung, E.S. (2007). “Hydrological effects of climate change, groundwater withdrawal, and landuse in the small Korea watershed.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 21, No. 22, pp. 3046- 3056   DOI   ScienceOn
30 한국환경정책평가연구원 (2007). 수계별 유역의 불투수율조사 및 저감방안 연구. 국립환경과학원 한강물환경연구소
31 Nash, J.E., and Sutcliffe, J.V. (1970). “River flow forecasting through conceptual models, part 1 - A discussion of principles.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 282-290   DOI   ScienceOn
32 Pitman, A.J., and Chiew, F.H. (1996). “Testing a GCM land surface scheme against catchment-scale runoff data.” Climate Dynamics, Vol. 17, pp. 182-190   DOI
33 Sefton, C.E.M., and Boorman, D.B. (1997). “A regional investigation of climate change impacts on UK streamflows.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 195, pp. 26-44   DOI   ScienceOn
34 Stahl, K., Moore, R.D., Shea, J.M., Hutchinson, D., and Cannon, A.J. (2008). “Coupled modelling of glacier and streamflow response to future climate scenarios.” Water Resources Research, Vol. 44, No. 2, W02422   DOI   ScienceOn
35 Semadeni-Davies, A., Hernebring, C., Svensson, G., and Gustafsson, L. (2008). “The impact of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Suburban stormwater.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 350, pp. 114-125   DOI   ScienceOn
36 Schueler, T. (1994) “The importance of imperviousness.” Watershed Protection Techniques, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 100-111
37 Solecki, W.D., and Oliveri, C. (2004). “Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban landuse change model.” Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 72, pp. 105-115   DOI   ScienceOn
38 Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Wolock, D.M., and Ayers, M.A. (1991). “Simulation of precipitation by weather type analysis.” Water Resources Research, Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 493-501   DOI
39 Hejazi, M., and Moglen, G.E. (2008). “The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 22, pp. 4710-4722   DOI   ScienceOn
40 Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W., Barrow, E.M. (2002). “SDSM - A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts.” Environmental and Modelling Software, Vol. 17, pp. 145-157   DOI   ScienceOn
41 Wilby, R.L. (1994). “Stochastic Weather Type Simulation for Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment.” Water Resources Research, Vol. 30, No. 12, pp. 3395-3403   DOI   ScienceOn
42 Li, Z., Liu, W., Zhang, X., and Zheng, F. (2009). “Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China.” Journal of Hydrology (on-line published)
43 Ma, X., Xu, J., Luo, Y., Aggarwal, S.P., and Li, J. (2009). “Response of hydrological processes to land-cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed, south-west China.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 23, pp. 1179-1191   DOI   ScienceOn
44 Wang, S., Kang, S., Zhang, L., and Li, F. (2008). “Modelling hydrological response to different land-use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China.” Hydrological Processes, Vol. 22, pp. 2502-2510   DOI   ScienceOn