• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
• /
• v.46 no.4
• /
• pp.345-350
• /
• 2003

Purpose : Bacterial meningitis is a serious infection of childhood associated with a significant morbidity and mortality. Repeated cerebrospinal fluid(CSF) examination is a useful prognostic indicator and a delayed sterilization is associated with a higher incidence of neurologic abnormalities. In this study we tried to determine the prognostic value of repeated CSF latex agglutination testing. Methods : We retrospectively evaluated 19 patients admitted to Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital for bacterial meningitis from January 1997 to June 2002. Bacterial meningitis was confirmed by a positive CSF culture and a positive CSF latex agglutination test. Repeated CSF examinations were done at three, seven, 14, 21 and 28 days after antibiotics therapy. Neuroradiologic studies were performed. Results : The mean age was $10.6{\pm}12.3months$(range; two to 33 months). The male to female ratio was 2.8 : 1. The causative organisms were Haemophilus influenzae type b 57.9%, Group B Streptococcus 21.1%, Streptococcus pneumoniae 15.7% and Escherichia coli 5.3%. Three days after the initiation of antibiotics therapy, repeated CSF latex agglutination tests persisted as positive in nine (47.4%) out of 19 cases, but all CSF cultures became negative. In those cases with negative latex agglutination tests three days after antibiotics therapy, neuroradiologic findings were completely normal. But, in cases with positive latex agglutination tests three days after antibiotics therapy, neuroradiologic abnormalities such as cerebral infarction, encephalomalasia occurred in 44.4%. Conclusion : Repeated CSF latex agglutination testing was valuable as a prognostic factor in bacterial meningitis. Neuroradiologic abnormalities may occur in cases with delayed clearance of CSF latex agglutination tests more often than in cases with negative latex agglutination tests three days after antibiotics therapy.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
• /
• v.47 no.5
• /
• pp.669-680
• /
• 1999

Background: Pulmonary thromboembolism(PTE) is a life threatening disease that needs early diagnosis. Spiral CT angiography depict thromboemboli in the central pulmonary vessels with greater than 90% sensitivity and specificity, which approaches the results of pulmonary angiography in the Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis(PIOPED) study. This study was performed to evaluate the findings and the diagnostic value(clinical utility) of the spiral CT angiography with 2D image(multiplanar reformation) and 3D images(Shaded surface display, Minimal intensity projection) in the pulmonary thromboembolism. Methods: We retrospectively analysed spiral CT angiography and pulmonary angiography, lung scan and clinical recordings of 20 patients who had PTE diagnosed by spiral CT angiography(n=19 cases) or pulmonary angiography(n=l case) from September 1997 to August 1998. Among 20 patients who had underwent spiral CT angiography, 14 patients could be performed lung perfusion scan at the same time. We analyzed the vascular and parenchymal change in spiral CT angiogram. Results: Anatomical distribution of PTE was as follows: 1) left lung(n= 103)

• Childhood Kidney Diseases
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.178-185
• /
• 2008

Purpose : Our aim was to investigate the predictive factors for detecting grade III-V vesicoureteral reflux(VUR) in young infants less than 3 months with urinary tract infections (UTI). Methods : Data of infants who underwent ultrasonography and VCUG between January 2004 and September 2007 were reviewed. Age, gender, incidence of bacteremia, C-reactive protein(CRP) and imaging studies were compared between group I(grade III-V VUR) and group II (normal or grade I and II VUR) retrospectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, odds ratio, and likelihood ratio of ultrasonography for high grade VUR were evaluated. Results : Among 54 enrolled infants(41 males, 13 females), 14 infants were group I and 40 infants were group II. In the group I, CRP level was significantly higher(6.11$\pm$5.18 vs. 3.27$\pm$3.45, P=0.025), and there were more ultrasonographic abnormal findings(71.4%, vs. 22.5%, P=0.002) compared with group II. However, ultrasonography was the only significant factor after adjusting with logistic regression(P=0.002). Incidence of bacteremia and abnormal DMSA findings were not significantly different in two groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and odds ratio of ultrasonography was 71.4%, 77.5%, 6.9 respectively. Negative predictive value was 88.6% and negative likelihood ratio was 0.37. Ultrasonography had significant negative likelihood ratio for grade III-V VUR, but missed 4 infants with grade III VUR. Conclusion : We could not find any alternative predictive factors to reduce VCUG in detecting high grade VUR. Therefore, VCUG must be considered in young infants less than 3 months with UTI.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.39 no.3
• /
• pp.42-55
• /
• 2021

This study investigated the memories of the natives and the migrants who had been living with the 760-year-old Zelkova serrata located in the Keangnam Apartment Complex in Dogok 1-dong. Place memory is a newly illuminated concept since the 1980s, and is also used as a new research methodology for studying and recording multi-layered memories left in a place based on feelings and traces of vivid memories. The urban development of Gangnam, which began in the 1970s, quickly changed rural to apartment complexes. The natives of Yeokmal were scattered throughout the country, and new migrants moved in. In the process, zelkova serrata was managed in different ways from time to time, and residents also establish relationship in different ways. Natives used to take a rest in the tree or swing at Dan-o, and recognized it as a place to receive the god during the village ritual. In other words, they shared the entire process of life and death and were given various roles depending on the lives of the residents. It is also a direct experience that was experienced in detail and a place where collective memories of residents are melted. On the other hand, with the construction of Keangnam Apartment, the management of zelkova tree has become stricter, making it impossible for migrants to access. Migrants have come to enjoy zelkova serrata visually, and the annual Yeokmal Traditional Festival makes common memories in the city. In addition, many people personified trees and received mental comfort. In addition, the nature of the old big tree was highlighted in the background of the city, and the symbol of "uniqueness and speciality" was newly formed, which led to the formation of pride and attachment. Through the memories of the two subjects' zelkova tree, we were able to examine the memories of the tree value, and management of protected tree in the city.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
• /
• v.45 no.2
• /
• pp.322-332
• /
• 1998

Background: Accurate staging is important to determine treatment modalities and to predict prognosis for the patients with lung cancer. The simple two-stage system of the Veteran's Administration Lung Cancer study Group has been used for staging of small cell lung cancer(SCLC) because treatment usually consists of chemotherapy with or without radiotherapy. However, this system does not accurately reflect segregation of patients into homogenous prognostic groups. Therefore, a variety of new staging system have been proposed as more intensive treatments including either intensive radiotherapy or surgery enter clinical trials. We evaluate the prognostic importance of TNM staging, which has the advantage of providing a uniform detailed classification of tumor spread, in patients with SCLC. Methods: The medical records of 166 patients diagnosed with SCLC between January 1989 and December 1996 were reviewed retrospectively. The influence of TNM stage on survival was analyzed in 147 patients, among 166 patients, who had complete TNM staging data. Results: Three patients were classified in stage I / II, 15 in stage III a, 78 in stage IIIb and 48 in stage IV. Survival rate at 1 and 2 years for these patients were as follows: stage I / II, 75% and 37.5% ; stage IIIa, 46.7% and 25.0% ; stage III b, 34.3% and 11.3% ; and stage IV, 2.6% and 0%. The 2-year survival rates for 84 patients who received chemotherapy(more than 2 cycles) with or without radiotherapy were as follows: stage I / II, 37.5% ; stage rna, 31.3% ; stage IIIb 13.5% ; and stage IV 0%. Overall outcome according to TNM staging was significantly different whether or not received treatment. However, there was no significant difference between stage IIIa and stage IIIb though median survival and 2-year survival rate were higher in stage IIIa than stage IIIb. Conclusion: These results suggest that the TNM staging system may be helpful for predicting the prognosis of patients with SCLC.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.107-122
• /
• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.