• 해운
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• s.83
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• pp.12-16
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• 2011

2011년 하반기 세계경제는 고유가와 유럽 재정우기 등 상반기 충격요인들의 향배에 의해 결정될 것이다. 3분기에도 4%대의 소비자물가 상승세가 이어지면서 국내경기는 하반기 중 회복의 활력이 세지 않을 전망이다. 원화절상, 일본 대체효과 소멸 등으로 수출활력이 다소 둔화되고 설비투자도 대기수요가 충족되면서 상승세가 꺾일 전망이다. 이에 따라 2011년 하반기 국내경제 성장률은 4.5%, 연간으로는 4.1% 수준을 기록할 것으로 전망된다. 가계부채, 건설사 및 저축은행 부실문제 등이 우리경제의 장기적인 불안요인으로 작용하겠지만 단기간 내 경제에 심각한 충격을 줄 정도는 아닌 것으로 보인다. 하반기 중에도 물가안정 대책에 초점이 두어져야 하며 단계적인 정책금리 인상으로 기대 인플레이션 상승을 억제할 필요가 있다. 하반기의 시작점에서 경제악화 요인들은 어떠한 것들이 있으며, 효과적으로 대처하기 위해서 현재의 상황과 앞으로의 전망을 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 다음은 LG 경제연구소에서 발표한 "2011년 하반기 세계경제 환경 및 국내경제 정책 전망"의 주요 내용을 정리 요약한 것이다.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.413-429
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of consumers' inflation expectations using consumers' inflation perceptions and the sub-components of consumer price index (CPI) basket in South Korea based on a consumer survey conducted by the Bank of Korea (BOK). Design/methodology/approach - Using Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model, we analyzed data from January 2013 to January 2023, resulting in a data set of 121 observations for both inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. This study focuses only on aggregate inflation expectations and perceptions because of data availability from the BOK. Findings - Professionals' forecasts play a major role in forming consumers' inflation expectations, whereas the actual headline CPI and consumers' inflation perceptions do not. These results remain robust when including the sub-components of the CPI basket in the analysis. Research implications or Originality - It would be the most efficient way to suppress professionals' expected inflation in fighting against a substantial spike in consumers' inflation expectations. To guide consumers' inflation expectations based on BOK's inflation targeting, the bank needs to consider professionals' forecasts in devising monetary policies.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.103-122
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• 2009

The paper is basically designed to investigate any existence of co-movement among foreign exchange market, goods market, and monetary market implemented by relative PPP and interest rate parity. And, rational expectation and GARCH-M model are employed for an empirical application. The result revealed that since the co-movement among the markets is hardly found, an efficiency of foreign exchange market is independent from any shocks from the goods market and the monetary market. Whereas, the exchange rate is strongly effected by a real interest rate parity. To this end, the real interest rate should be a key policy instrument to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.251-256
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• 2023

International diesel prices play a crucial role in various sectors such as industry, transportation, and energy production, exerting a significant impact on the global economy and international trade. In particular, an increase in international diesel prices can burden consumers and potentially lead to inflation. However, previous studies have primarily focused on gasoline. Therefore, this study aims to propose an international diesel price prediction model. To achieve this goal, we utilize various global economic indicators and train a linear regression model, which is one of the machine learning methodologies. This model clearly identifies the relationship between global economic indicators and international diesel prices while providing highly accurate predictions. It is expected to aid in understanding overall economic trends including market changes.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.1-47
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• 2020

This paper surveys research since the 1990s on the ability of the yield spread and its components (i.e., expectation spread and term premium components) for future economic activity, and also conducts an empirical analysis of their forecasting ability using the yield data of Korean government bonds. This paper's survey, particularly for the US, shows that the yield spread has significant predictive power for some macroeconomic variables, but since the mid-1980s, its predictive power seems to have declined, possibly due to stronger inflation targeting. Next, this paper's empirical analysis using Korean data indicates that the yield spread, and the term premium component in particular, has significant predictive power for industrial production (IP) growth, consumer price index growth, and the IP gap. An out-of-sample analysis shows that the prediction equations are unstable over time, and that in predicting IP growth, the yield spread decomposition makes a significant contribution to the prediction of IP growth.

• Journal of Legislation Research
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• no.44
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• pp.7-31
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• 2013

Paradigm of Global economy is changing to creative economy. This study focuses on the role of creative economy to clarify (understand clearly) the impact (influence) which transition of economy system will bring about. The creative economy is basically came from New economy theory. According to the New economy theory, a state can achieve sustainable growth without an inflation, or higher growth rate under given inflation rate, through an investment on ICT. However, different from America, Korea had limited effect of New Economy. This is because Korean economy had factor-input driven growth model rather than New Economy mechanism. However, ICT is essential requirement to move toward New Economy(Digital Economy), it does not sufficiently explain the increase of productivity and economic growth. A crucial point to realize New economy is how to diffuse and spill over the technology development on ICT sector to other industry. ICT is not creative industry or creative economy per se, and it should play as an enabler to improve other industry's productivity. The creative economy can be understood as an extension of New Economy theory. It means the economy that creates values by cultural assets and human resource, as well as capital and labor factors. However, if we understand the meaning of creative economy as change of input factors, it is hard to bring real shape of creative economy.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.303-310
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• 2018

Bitcoin (BTC) is a cryptocurrency proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. Bitcoin makes its transactions with no central authorities. This decentralization is accomplished with its mining, which is an operation that makes people compete to solve math puzzles to include new transactions into block, and eventually block chains (ledger) of bitcoin. Because miners need to solve a complex puzzles, they need a lot of computing resources. In return for miners' resources, bitcoin network gives newly minted bitcoins as a reward to miners when they succeed in mining. To prevent inflation, the reward is halved every 4 years. For example, in 2009 block reward was 50 BTC, but today, the block reward is 12.5 BTC. On the other hands, exchange rate for bitcoin and Korean Won (KRW) changed drastically from 924,000 KRW/BTC (January 12th, 2017) to 16,103,306 KRW/BTC (December 10th, 2017), which made mining more attractive. However, there are no rigorous researches on the profitability of bitcoin mining. In this paper, we evaluate the profitability of bitcoin mining.

• Archives of design research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.119-126
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• 2004

MMO RPG Online game as a new means of human computer interaction has been made rapid progress. Even though many kinds of online game have published, few games are being well received by its user. So we have a problem to be solved what is the fundamentals to attract game users. I will apply a game theory of the Roger Caillois who lived as an typical french thinker. Although Roger Caillois had never experienced a computer game since he died at 1978, his game theory was acknowledged that a game can be classified into four sections to grab the human's interest related with culture. Four sections of game were consisted of Ilinx, Mimicry, Alea, and Agon. The competition with people in game is essential to "Agon" that which stands on the basis of a pride when one is definitely superior to the others. In same way, "Alea" is that which stands on the basis of fortune, Mimicry is that which stands on the basis of simulation, Ilinx is that which stands on the basis of dizzy. In conclusion, I will explain that a game theory of the Roger Caillois is useful tool for deveoper to understand game fundamentals.d game fundamentals.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.157-177
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• 2010

This study analyzes the effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth by using each province city's panel data of China from 1985 to 2008. By using Recently developed fiscal decentralization index and autonomy of local government quantified this study finds the following conclusions. The increase of inflation rate affects positive effect on Chinese economy. This is the trade-off relationship with the growth of Chinese economy by the Phillips Curve theory. So this suggests the instability of Chinese economy. The affiliation of WTO of China shows positive effect on Chinese economy. This can be translated as the real evidence about free trade theory of Classical School. Expenditure decentralization in China led to economic growth and revenue decentralization also affected positively although it was not as much as expenditure decentralization's effect. Central tax and local tax negatively influenced economic growth; and differently from our expectation, local government autonomy quantified was not relevant to economic growth.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.70-79
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• 2015

With the rise of the interest in a renewable system, the importance of the Life Cycle Cost Analysis(LCCA), an economic evaluation tool, has been increasing. However, there is an inevitable gap between a real cost and an estimation from LCCA because of the uncertainty of the external environment in real world. As the input variables in an analysis, such as a real discount rate and an energy cost, ares subject to change as time goes by, strategic decision on the current operating system is made depending on the real cost. Current economic evaluation approaches have treated only the fluctuation of input variables without consideration of the flexibility in operation, which has consequently led to the impairment on the reliability of LCCA. Therefore, new approach needs to be proposed to consider both the uncertainty of input variables and operational flexibility. To address this issue, the application of the Real Option to LCCA is presented in this study. Through a case analysis of LCCA of a solar heating system, the limits and current status of LCCA are identified. As a result, quantitative presentation of strategic decisions has been added in the new approach to implement the traditional approach.