• Title/Summary/Keyword: 기대가설

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국제유가 흐름에 대한 시계열분석접근

  • Park, Ju-Ho
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.103-124
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    • 1994
  • 주요 현물유가(WTI, Brent, Oman, Dubai)와 선물유가간의 동태적 관계를 시계열 분석 방법을 이용하여 살펴보았다. 현물유가 및 선물유가들은 1차 적분된 시계열(I(1))로 보여진다. 현물유가들사이 및 현물유가와 선물유가사이에도 공적분관계(cointegration relation)가 있는 것으로 보여진다. 한편, 선물유가는 현물 유가를 인과(Granger-cause)하지만, 현물유가는 선물유가를 인과하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 공적분관계 및 인과관계의 결과는 합리적 기대가설(rational expectations hypothesis)에 의한 효율적 석유시장(efficient oil markets)과 일치하는 것으로 보여진다. 수정오차모형(error correction model)에 의해 3/4분기 및 4/4분기의 유가들을 예측해 보았다.

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The Classification Plan on Safety Certification System of Temporary Equipment (건설 가설재의 안전인증 분류방안)

  • Park, Sang-Wook;Park, Jun-Mo;Kim, Ok-Kyue
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.794-799
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    • 2008
  • At the point of changing from the capacity qualification of temporary equipments for building to safety certification system, the meaning of qualification and the present state of main products are evaluated for Capacity qualification system and compare with related system in developed country. These suggest classification of temporary equipments for building construction in safety certification. Now, present state of the capacity qualification system is estimated; according to the reforming system from restating law in 2003, there are a lot of changing of application in every 3 years because of that. The ability of Making business is improved by checking again but, there are limitation to constantly keep the safety as the system to approve form about sent imitation products. Changing from the capacity qualification system to safely certification system make to include the structure of the qualification system and make a plan standard. It make least panic in the building market and set up some standards for capacity by changing building circumstance. The classification of temporary equipment for building construction in safety certification from the module of quotation form classify each duty quotation item, self-regulation safely verification item and option quotation item, these will more improve the system form and quality of temporary equipment for building than before.

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Modeling Framework for Continuous Dynamic Systems Using Machine Learning of Hypothetical Model (가설적 모델의 기계학습을 이용한 연속시간 동적시스템 모델링 프레임워크)

  • Hae Sang Song;Tag Gon Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes a method of automatically generating a model through a machine learning technique by setting a hypothetical model in the form of a gray box or black box with unknown parameters, when the big data of the actual system is given. We implements the proposed framework and conducts experiments to find an appropriate model among various hypothesis models and compares the cost and fitness of them. As a result we find that the proposed framework works well with continuous systems that could be modeled with ordinary differential equation. This technique is expected to be used well for the purpose of automatically updating the consistency of the digital twin model or predicting the output for new inputs using recently generated big data.

A Study on the Effect of Social Commerce Service Quality and Service Provider Physical Environment on the Social Commerce Loyalty -Focused on the Social Commerce for Group Purchase- (소셜커머스 서비스품질과 서비스제공 업체의 물리적환경이 소셜커머스 충성도에 미치는 영향 -공동구매형 소셜커머스를 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Tae-Ho;Yun, Dae-Hong;Ock, Jung-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the effects of social commerce service quality and the service provider's physical environment on customer loyalty based on trust and satisfaction. Study results are as follows: First, correlation analysis results for social commerce service quality and social commerce trust find that informativity and interactivity exert statistically significant effects on social commerce trust. Second, service provider's physical environment and service provider satisfaction correlation analysis results demonstrate cleanliness, ambience, and interactivity exert statistically significant effects on service provider satisfaction. Lastly, the correlation between social commerce trust, service provider satisfaction, and social commerce loyalty, was statistically significant. Results of this study are expected to provide general understanding of group purchase decisions in social commerce and to provide value input in strategy development for social commerce with respect to group purchase and service provider.

The Effect of Fam Tour Experience on Brand Equity and Revisit Intention in Rural Area (농촌지역의 팸투어 체험이 브랜드자산 및 재방문의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Ki-Dae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.191-202
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    • 2022
  • This study is about the effect of experience activities of fam tours in Korea on brand assets and revisit intention to revisit. In other words, the fam tour experience(feel, relate, sense, think, act) in research hypothesis 1 will have a positive (+) influence on brand assets(recognition, image, perceived quality, loyalty, and exclusive assets). In addition, it was set that the brand asset in Hypothesis 2 would have a positive (+) significant effect on the revisit intention. To verify this, 362 questionnaires were collected from MZ households in the metropolitan area and statistical analysis was conducted. The analysis results are as follows. First, in Hypothesis 1-1, the fam tour experience (feel, relate, act) has a positive (+) effect on awareness, In Hypothesis 1-2, the fam tour experience (relate, sense, think) has the effect of positive (+) on the image, In Hypothesis 1-3, the fam tour experience (feel, relate, sense, think, act) is the influence of perceived quality, In Hypothesis 1-4, the fam tour experience(sense, act) has a positive effect on loyalty, In Hypothesis 1-5, the fam tour experience (feel, relate, sense, think) had a positive (+) effect on exclusive assets. The brand assets(awareness, image, quality, loyalty, and exclusive assets) of the rural fam tour in Hypothesis 2 were significant for revisit intention.

Admissibility of Subrogation Arbitration in the view of Firm Offer Hypothesis (확정오퍼가설 관점에서 바라 본 대위중재의 허용여부)

  • Cho, Chung-Kon
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.287-311
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    • 2013
  • The arbitration parties may disagree with the arbitrator's award about whether they are eligible for the dispute case. While lots of disputes cases relating to subrogation are arising, it is not easy to find subrogation arbitration system to handle them clearly. The main issue is an availability of subrogation arbitration in case of the dispute which the insurer requests the arbitration against the carrier according to the arbitration clause of Bill of Lading. The direct parties of arbitration clause of the B/L are the carrier and the holder of the B/L. Could the insurer get the position of the arbitration party in stead of the holder of the B/L after compensation if there was an accident of insurance on the way of carriage? Even though there are a few arbitral awards of subrogation, the reason of the eligibility of subrogation arbitration is not enough. This paper scrutinized precedent research papers, arbitration awards, judicial precedents, and the Automobile Subrogation Arbitration System. Vague dispute resolution system which burden corporations with so many costs must be not good for business. In the view of economic efficiency, blank of contract, reciprocality, and Coase Theorem, it is recommended that subrogation arbitration system for the international trade would be better focus on the hypothesis of "Firm Offer Character of Arbitration Clause."

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A Study on the Effect of Selection Attribute of Cruise Service on Tourism Satisfaction and Behavioral Intention (크루즈 서비스 선택속성이 관광만족과 행동의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Pak, Myongsop;Kang, Yongjoon;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.193-214
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    • 2012
  • The interest on cruise service has been increased due to the economic development and income growth all over the world during last several decades. However, cruise industry in Korea is located in the initiating stage and the service is just focused on costal cruise service. This study investigates relationship between influencing factors of the selection attributes of cruise service on tourism satisfaction and behavioral intention. Additionally, the study aims to provide information to establish customer-oriented marketing strategies for cruise tour service. Literature review is conducted to find out the factors in order to meet the future users preference and expectations. The data was collected on-board customers of "One Night Cruise" on Panstar Line. The result of the study shows that a certain number of factors are statistically significant on the cruise tour intention of potential customers. It shows that there is significant difference related to the using purpose and the usage attitude. Managers in the cruise company are able to utilize the practical implications of the present study when the cruise service launches in Korea. This study exists limitations that samples are not sufficient and the research can not be generalized due to the inadequate samples of target company.

Social Benefits of Improved Water Quality at the Taehwa River Based on Citizen's Willingness-to-Pay (시민지불의사에 기초한 태화강 수질개선의 사회적 편익)

  • Kim, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.83-109
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    • 2007
  • This study evaluates citizen's willingness-to-pay for the benefits from improved water quality of the Taehwa river in Ulsan, Korea, using a contingent valuation method with double-bounded dichotomous choice. The estimation results of the bivariate probit model shows the amounts of willingness-to-pay are monthly 3,458.5 Korean Won per household and yearly 14,760 million Korean Won for total households in Ulsan, Korea. These estimates are equivalent to the social values of improved water quality of the Taehwa river. This study also tests the inter-dependence between two answers, which may occur in the responses of the questions for the double-bounded dichotomous choice, and all the null hypotheses on the inter-dependence are rejected in this study.

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A Study on User Evaluation of VR Games on Improving Visual Immersion (시각적 몰입감 향상에 관한 VR 게임의 사용자 평가 연구)

  • Lee, Lang-Goo;Chung, Jean-Hun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.407-413
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    • 2022
  • This study conducted empirical analysis through user experience and questionnaire to find out whether the technical and contextual elements of the 'COVID-19 SABER' VR game produced and developed through initial research affect the improvement of the user's visual immersion. As a result first, the hypotheses regarding the resolution, viewing angle, effect, and design quality of the technical elements were accepted, but the hypotheses regarding the frame rate and the brightness of the lighting were rejected. Next, as for the hypothesis of the contextual elements, the hypothesis about background, directing, color and texture, interest and fun was adopted, and the hypothesis about storytelling was rejected. In summary, it was concluded that in order to increase the visual immersion of VR games, technical elements resolution, viewing angle, effect, design quality, contextual elements background, directing, color and texture, interest and fun must be designed and produced. The results of this study are expected to serve as basic data for the production and development of VR games that can induce and improve user's visual immersion in the future.

An Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting Continuous Usage Intention of Games (게임의 지속적 이용에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 실증적 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Min;Kim, Jong Uk;Park, Sang Cheol
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the factors influencing the user's continuous usage intention of computer games. A research model was developed which shows that the independent variables of value, expectation confirmation, perceived enjoyment affect user satisfaction and continuous usage intention. To test the six hypotheses, survey data were collected from 104 respondents, and hypotheses tests as well as a confirmatory factor analysis were conducted using a partial least square analysis tool. The statistical analysis result showed that expectation confirmation had a significant positive effect on satisfaction, and satisfaction also had a strong positive effect on the game user's continuous usage intention. Perceived enjoyment showed a highly strong positive effect on satisfaction. In addition, satisfaction was found to have full mediation effects in the relationship between expectation confirmation and continuous usage intention, and perceived enjoyment and continuous usage intention respectively. This result provides an important implication that continuous usage intention occurs through user satisfaction, and also indicates the contribution of this study for the game industry. Another contribution of this study is to introduce critical independent variables from the marketing and information technology domains in order to explain continuous usage intention of computer games.