• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.105-120
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• 2017

This study analyzed changes in the competitive structure of the global shipping container market and the appropriate capacity of the container fleet in Korea from three perspectives. The competitive market analysis applied the market concentration ratio and Hirschman-Herfindahl index, while the appropriate capacity analysis was based on the following three aspects: (1) Fleet capacity to secure competitiveness in the global shipping alliance; (2) Fleet capacity to increase national fleet coverage of domestic import and export container cargo; and (3) Fleet capacity analysis through the panel model considering the characteristics of the major shipping countries. Analysis of the global shipping container market reveals an oligopoly industry, and Korea's container fleet capacity is insufficient across all three analyses.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.223-242
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• 2023

This study analyzes the spillover effects of returns and volatility between the commodity market and the maritime freight market across various frequency domains (short-term, medium-term, long-term). The key findings of the study can be summarized as follows. First, from the perspective of returns, a high linkage is observed in the short-term between the commodity and maritime freight markets, with the metal commodities market playing a particularly significant role in information transmission effect of return series. Second, in terms of volatility, the total connectedness increases from the short- to the long-term, with substantial long-term risk transmission effects observed especially in the BDI, BDTI, agricultural, and energy commodity markets. Notably, during major global events such as the U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine conflicts, a marked increase in the risk transmission effect in the energy commodities market was identified.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.47-47
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• 2021

글로벌 물산업의 규모는 2019년 기준 약 1,000조원 수준으로 2024년까지 연평균 3.5%의 성장률을 달성할 것으로 예측하고 있다. 특히 코로나 19의 영향으로 디지털 물산업에 대한 투자가 증가하고 있으며 4차산업혁명 등으로 지속 성장이 예상되고 있다. 이러한 디지털 물산업 시장의 성장은 물산업분야의 기술경쟁력의 중요도가 더욱 높아질 것을 예상하게 한다. 우리나라의 물산업에 있어서 기술경쟁력 분석을 위해 많은 연구가 진행되어왔으나 대부분 설문조사에 근거한 정석적 분석에 의존하여 왔다. 정성적인 분석에 의존한 연구의 경우, 대상 응답자들이 특정 분야에 치중되어 분석되거나 긍정적으로 판단하는 경향이 있어 우리나라의 물산업 기술의 현재 상황을 과대평가할 가능성이 있다. 또한 연구시점, 설문분야에 따라 결과가 상이할 수 있어 결과의 신뢰성 및 시계열적 추이분석이 어려워 물산업정책 수립을 위해 활용되는데 한계가 존재하였다. 본연구에서는 기존의 정성적 분석에서 벗어나 정량적인 자료에 근거하여 우리나라의 물산업 기술수준과 시장지배를 동시에 고려하여 분석하였다. 물산업의 기술영향력지수(Cites per Patent)와 시장지배력지수(Patent Family Size)를 기준으로 선도국가와 국내 물산업 기술수준 및 시장영향력을 비교하고 평가하였다. 연구결과의 정책적 활용을 위해 물기술과 물시장의 상이한 분류체계를 물시장 중심으로 재분류하여 물산업 기술경쟁력을 분석하여 제시하였다. 연구결과 우리나라의 국내 기술영향력 중 가장 낮은 분야는 하수도 디지털 분야로 선도국가 대비 30% 수준이었으며 시장지배력분야 또한 하수분야로 7% 수준으로 파악되었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2024.05a
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• pp.576-579
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• 2024

경제 위기 대비를 위해 인공지능을 활용한 주식시장 변동성 이상을 탐지하는 목적을 가지고 있다. 글로벌 이슈와 경제 위기 대비를 위해 주식시장 변동성 예측의 중요성이 부각되고 있으며, 기존의 주식시장 변동성 지수인 VIX 의 한계로 인해 더 복잡한 모델 및 인공지능을 활용한 연구에 관심이 집중되고 있다. 기존의 주식시장 변동성 예측에 관한 연구들은 통계적인 방법을 사용했으며 인공지능을 이용한 연구 또한 대부분 이상치 구간을 표시하여 예측을 목표로 하고 있으나 이러한 접근법은 라벨이 있는 데이터 수집 어려움, 클래스 불균형 문제가 있다. 본 연구는 인공지능을 활용한 주식시장 변동성 탐지에 기여하고 지도 학습 방식 대신 비지도 학습 기반의 이상탐지모델을 사용하여 주식시장 변동성을 예측하는 새로운 방법론을 제안한다. 본 연구에서 개발한 인공지능 모델은 IsolationForest 모델을 활용하며, 시계열 데이터를 전처리한 후 정상성을 확보하는 등의 과정을 거친다. 실험 결과로 인공지능 모델이 주요 경제이슈를 이상치로 검출하는 성능을 확인하였으며 재현율 약 93.6%, 정밀도 100%로 높은 성능을 달성했다.

• JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL WORLD
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• s.257
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• pp.70-77
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• 1998

21세기를 지향하여 음성뿐만 아니라 데이터, 나아가서는 화상까지도 쌍방향전송을 가능케하는 고도정보통신, 소위 멀티미디어의 세계가 구현되어 가고 있다. 이 멀티미디어의 세계는 (1)고속$\cdot$대용량, (2)글로벌, (3)모바일(퍼스널)의 키워드로 특징지을 수 있는데, 여기에는 화합물반도체를 베이스로하는 광$\cdot$마이크로파디바이스가 깊이 관련되어 있다. 마이크로파디바이스를 살펴보면 소위 ''텔레데식'' 계획으로 대표되는 다량의 인공위성을 이용한 글로벌한 고속$\cdot$대용량통신에는 30 GHz라는 초고주파기술이 필수이며, HEMT등의 고성능화합물 반도체디바이스가 반드시 필요하다. 또 2.5~10Gbps, 나아가서는 40Gbps의 고속$\cdot$장거리 통신에는 광 디바이스가 결정적인 역할을 하고 있다. 한편 지수 함수적으로 증대하고 있는 정보의 축적은 광디스크의 진보에 힘입은 바가 크다. 보다 많은 대용량 화상데이터의 축적과 읽기$\cdot$쓰기를 할 수 있는 DVD(Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM, DVD-RAM에 대하여도 시장 조성이 목전에 다가오고 있다. 이와 같이 광$\cdot$마이크로파디바이스는 정보$\cdot$통신의 프런트 엔드를 걸머진 중핵디바이스로서 앞으로 멀티미디어를 근간으로 하여 성장해 갈 것으로 생각된다.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.41-76
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• 2017

This paper analyses the market shares and the export similarity indexes (ESI) of Korea, Japan and China in ASEAN, and then identifies the determinants of Korea's exports to ASEAN countries using single equation cointegration approaches, such as fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical cointegration regression (CCR). Various regression results are as follows: As expected, Korea's real exports tend to increase as importing country's GDP grows. The competing third country's currency depreciation affects Korea's exports differently from country to country. Most notably, it doesn't significantly affect Korean exports in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. These results suggest that bilateral or third country exchange rates are not that important or decisive factors to determine Korea's exports to ASEAN countries in the long-run while economic growth in ASEAN countries matters most.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.27-43
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• 2023

The maritime industry is playing an increasingly vital part in global economic expansion. Specifically, the Baltic Dry Index is highly correlated with global commodity prices. Hence, the importance of BDI prediction research increases. But, since the global situation has become more volatile, it has become methodologically more difficult to predict the BDI accurately. This paper proposes an integrated machine-learning strategy for accurately forecasting BDI trends. This study combines the benefits of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) for research on prediction. We collected daily BDI data for over 27 years for model fitting. The research findings indicate that CNN successfully extracts BDI data features. On this basis, LSTM predicts BDI accurately. Model R2 attains 94.7 percent. Our research offers a novel, machine-learning-integrated approach to the field of shipping economic indicators research. In addition, this study provides a foundation for risk management decision-making in the fields of shipping institutions and financial investment.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.93-106
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• 2020

Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

• Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.193-203
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• 2021

Sunscreen is a product that blocks and scatters UV rays to protect them from UV rays. Domestic consumers generously invest in sunscreen, ranking first in the world in terms of sun care consumption per capita in 2019. Sunscreens are subject to a variety of factors, including regulations, ingredients, formulations, clinical trials, and product labeling, but are tightly controlled as product demand increases. In this study, various factors affecting the UV protection factor were investigated and analyzed. Preemptive measures such as continuous investigation are required so that various factors such as these do not become obstacles for domestic cosmetics companies to export, and to revitalize the export market with international competitiveness.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.480-488
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• 2016

As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.