• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.391-395
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• 2023

There are countless possibilities lying ahead of us, and while predicting the future may be challenging, it does not render the act of forecasting meaningless. Predicting various possibilities allows us to be flexible in coping with unforeseen circumstances. This study was conducted to explore extreme events (X-events) in the population sector in South Korea. To achieve this, focus group interviews were conducted with 32 emergency planning officers in government and public services. Based on these interviews, significant research findings were derived, indicating that population issues such as population decline and aging could have substantial impacts on various fields, including the economy and national defense. With this study as a catalyst, we anticipate a more active discussion and discourse on X-events that could occur in our society.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.291-311
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• 2007

With a series of unexpected huge losses in the financial markets around the world recently, especially in the insurance market with extreme loss cases such as catastrophes, there is an increasing demand for risk management for extreme loss exposures due to high unpredictability of those risks. For extreme risk management, to make a maximum use of the information concerning the tail part of a loss distribution, EVT(Extreme Value Theory) modelling nay be the best to analyze extreme values. The Extreme Value Theory is widely used in practice and, especially in financal markets, EVT modelling is getting popular to analyBe the effects of extreme risks. This study is to review the significance of the Extreme Value Theory in risk management and, focusing on analyzing insurer's risk capital, extreme risk is measured using the real fire loss data and insurer's specific amount of risk capital is figured out to buffer the extreme risk.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.193-225
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• 2006

The purpose of this paper is to analyze contagion in Asian foreign exchange markets using Extreme Value Theory and Copula. Our application deals with asymptotic dependence of daily exchange rate return for a sample of eight countries over period 1997.1.1-2005.4.13. The empirical results are summarized as follows. Firstly, Gumbel Copula is a good model to our data according to the value of AIC. Secondly, the extremal dependence between East Asian crisis countries became lower in the post crisis period than the crisis period. Thirdly, It seemed that high extremal dependence exists between East Asian countries with Singapore. Fourthly, the tail dependence between Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine became higher in the crisis period than the total period and post crisis period. Fifthly, the fact that the extremal dependence between Korea and Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine did not increase during the Asian Financial Crisis showed that the contagion effect was not the reason of the Korea's Fiancial Crisis. Sixthly, the extremal dependence between Asian exchange markets was not very high while comparing with the European exchange markets.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2013.05a
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• pp.189-190
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• 2013

최근 몇 년 사이 학교폭력의 피해학생들의 자살하는 사건들이 발생하였는데 이러한 자살사건들로 인하여 학교폭력에 대한 우리사회의 관심이 그 어느 때 보다 높다고 할 수 있다. 작년 한 해에는 대구에서 학교폭력 피해가 의심되는 이유로 투신자살한 이후 대전, 광주 등에서 자살하는 사건이 연속적으로 발생하였다. 학교폭력의 피해자들은 가해자들로부터의 벗어나고 싶은 심정으로 극단적인 선택을 하게 되는 것이다. 이러한 청소년 비행이나 청소년 범죄에 관련된 문제 중에서 학교폭력이 가장 큰 비중을 차지하고 수많은 연구에서 다루어지고 있으나 학교폭력에 대한 문제해결의 기미는 보이지 않고 있다. 이에 경찰청에서는 학교폭력 근절을 위한 특별 TF팀을 구성하여 "위해의 사전 예방 제거"에 중점을 둔 근절대책을 추진할 것을 논의하였다. 하지만 한정된 경찰인력만으로는 학교폭력 문제에만 집중할 수 없는 것이 현실정이다. 본 연구는 학교폭력에 대한 이론적 배경을 검토하고, 학교폭력의 현상과 예방프로그램, 학교폭력에 대한 가해 및 피해학생의 선도프로그램의 운영 방안에 대해 살펴보고, 그에 따른 경찰의 역할에 논하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.93-106
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• 2020

Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1479-1494
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• 2015

Since the Markowitz's mean-variance framework for portfolio analysis, the topic of portfolio optimization has been an important topic in finance. Traditional approaches focus on maximizing the expected return of the portfolio while minimizing its variance, assuming that risky asset returns are normally distributed. The normality assumption however has widely been criticized as actual stock price distributions exhibit much heavier tails as well as asymmetry. To this extent, in this paper we employ the genetic algorithm to find the optimal portfolio under the Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, where the tail of risky assets are modeled with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), the standard distribution for exceedances in extreme value theory. An empirical study using Korean stock prices shows that the performance of the proposed method is efficient and better than alternative methods.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.117-131
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• 2014

This study aims to explore the reexperience of trauma caused by experience of discrimination and stigma from South Korean. For this purpose of this study, focus group interview methods are used. The participants are five women who escaped from North Korea and they were from 20s to 50s. From the outcomes of this study, I find out that they had experienced to put in prison, to let arrest to let human traffic, and sexual or physical assault. Now they have PTSD(Post Trauma Stress Symptom) of nightmare related with past trauma, avoidance of interpersonal relationships and similar situations, and retrospection and memorization of negative experiences. In that situation, they also have experienced discrimination caused by lack of understanding of their suffering in South Korea. And almost of them suffer from poor situation economically and physically. Participants regret their entry to South Korea and perceive that their hope has gone. And they have anger of Korean's discrimination and stigma and they feel suicide impulse after experiencing very difficult situation. These negative experiences affect their PTSD and make reemergence of trauma experience. In conclusion, the outcomes of this study are discussed and I proposed the practical suggestions which have affected decreasing the PTSD.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.72-80
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• 2013

A common fallacy found at opera works is to lean either toward 'opera as drama' or toward 'opera as music'. One of the historical examples of opera creation to overcome this fallacy is Puccini's $\grave{e}$me>. The composer Puccini and the librettists, Illica and Giacossa, found balance between these two extreme poles, which was made possible by keeping the color of the original novel "scenes de la vie de boh$\grave{e}$me" and simultaneously by reconstructing the most operatic characters and story. Their strategies, which can be summerized as 'simplification', 'romanticization and re-creation of characters', and 'realistic description of original atmosphere'. There strategy of adaptation and the 'episodic' feature as the outcome can be a good example for creators of new opera works.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.145-170
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• 2020

This study analyzes the dependence structure between energy (crude oil, natural gas, coal) prices and economic (real and financial) uncertainty. Summary of the results of the dependence structure between energy prices and economic uncertainty analysis is as follows. First, the results of model selection show that the BB7 copula model for the pair of crude oil price and economic uncertainty, the Joe copula model for the pair of natural gas price and economic uncertainty, and the Clayton copula model for the pair of coal price and economic uncertainty were chosen. Second, looking at the dependency structure, it showed that the pair of energy (crude oil, natural gas, coal) prices and real market uncertainty show positive dependence. Whereas, the only pair of financial market uncertainty-crude oil price shows positive dependency. In particular, crude oil price was found to have the greatest dependence on economic uncertainty. Third, looking at the results of tail dependency, the pair of real market uncertainty-crude oil price and pair of real market uncertainty-natural gas price have an asymmetric relationship with the upper tail dependency. It can be seen that the only pair of financial market uncertainty-crude oil represents asymmetric relationships with the upper tail dependencies. In other words, combinations with asymmetric relationships have shown strong dependence when negative extreme events occur. On the other hand, tail dependence between economic uncertainty and coal price be not found.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.73-83
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• 2016

NAVER provides search frequency data of search terms via its DataLab service (http://datalab.naver.com/). Using this data, this paper examines the relation between the search frequency of firm's name and its future stock returns. Our results show that the search frequency of firm's name is a new investor attention measure, which is different from previously explored attention measures such as extreme returns, turnover, etc. Firms that go through higher search frequency this week tend to have higher returns in the next week. We do not find return reversal in the long run for the firms with higher search frequency. Furthermore, the extent to which search frequency affects stock returns becomes more pronounced following market-wide attention grabbing events. Our results indicate that search frequency incorporates information for future stock returns.