• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.189-208
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• 2023

This paper analyzed the dynamic conditional correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market and stock market. This paper conducted an empirical analysis using daily data of Korea's carbon credit trading price, WTI crude oil futures price, and KOSPI index from February 2, 2015 to December 30, 2021. First, the volatility of the three markets was analyzed using the GARCH model, and then the dynamic conditional correlations between the three markets were studied using the bivariate DCC-GARCH model. The research results are as follows. First, it was found that the Korean ETS market has a higher rate of return and higher investment risk than the stock market. Second, the yield volatility of the Korean ETS market was found to be most affected by external shocks and least affected by the volatility information of the market itself. Third, the correlation between the Korean ETS market and the stock market was stronger than that of the WTI crude oil futures market. This paper analyzed the correlation between the Korean ETS market, energy market, and stock market and confirmed that the level of financialization in the Korean ETS market is quite low.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.23-51
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• 2016

This study analyzed the expected economic effects of the Korea-GCC FTA and sought strategies for industrial cooperation. To see the economic effects of Korea-GCC FTA, we analysed the effect of the oil tariff reduction of economy by Vector Autoregression(VAR) model. The estimation results shows that following the abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports, GDP, GNI and consumption are expected to grow by 0.212%, 0.389% and 0.238%, respectively. Meanwhile, investment, export and import are estimated to drop by 0.462%, 0.413% and 0.342%, respectively. As for prices, producer prices are to rise by 6.356%p, whereas consumer prices fall by 2.996%p. In short, the Korea-GCC FTA and resultant abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports followed by the decline in crude oil prices will result in declining prices whilst macroeconomic indices, such as GDP, GNI and consumption, will increase exerting positive effects on domestic economic growth. Also, it is necessary to proactively respond to GCC member states' industrial diversification policies for FTA-based industrial cooperation to diversify the sources of crude oil and natural gas imports for further resource risk management.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.495-520
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• 2018

Because of structural changes in the international oil market and the economy, it is widely recognized that the impact of oil shocks on the economy has weaken since the mid-1980s. This study tries to examine the validity of the recent perception about the relationship between oils shocks and the economy, estimating the time-varying effects of oil shocks on the Korean economy. The results show that the dynamic effects of oil shocks normalized to a one standard deviation has been relatively constant, in contrast to the recent perception and a number of existing studies. In addition, because the shape of impulse response functions at each point in time spanning from 1984:II to 2017:IV has not been changed significantly, it seems that the propagation mechanism of oil shocks also has not been substantially altered. These findings indicate that even though structural changes of the economy, such as the reduction in the share of oil consumption and the spread of high-efficiency energy technologies, have been rapidly progressed, it is not still enough to offset the negative effects of oil shocks. Rather, it seems that the recent perception about the shrinking effects of oil shocks is mainly due to the assumptions that do not reflect changes in the size of oil shocks. In particular, this problem appears more pronounced in the case of the typical a one standard deviation increase oil shock under homoskedasticity assumption, which is widely adopted in the most VAR analyses. Therefore, in estimating the effects of oil shocks on the economy, it is important to specify the correct model and normalization method, to reflect changes in the size of oil shocks.

• 해운
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• s.99
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• pp.14-20
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• 2013

석유생산이 정점을 짝은 후 감소한다는 피크오일(Peak Oil)의 대표사례로 지목되던 미국에서 원유생산이 39년 만에 증가세로 전환됐다(<그림 1> 참조). 2012년에는 WTI 유가 1% 하락에도 불구하고 미국은 주요 신유국 중에서 이라크에 이어 세계 두 번째로 빠른 석유생산 증가율(8.9%)을 기록하면서 세계 최대 석유 생산국으로 발돋움했다. 최근 들에서는 멜릴린치와 삭소은행 등 일부 투자은행들이 2년 내에 WTI 유가가 배럴당 50달러로까지 하락할 수 있다는 견해를 내 놓았다. 석유 생산 확대세가 이어지면서 미국내에서 거래되는 유가가 절반 가까이 하락할 수 있다는 것이다. 미국이 빠른 석유 생산 확대를 보이는 데에는 비전통 석유인 타이트 오일(Tight Oil)의 역할이 크다. 타이트 오일은 셰일가스가 매장된 셰일층, 즉 모래와 진흙이 굳어진 지하 퇴적암층에 존재하는 원유다. 탄소 함유량이 많고 황 함량이 적은 경질유이기 때문에 LTO(Light Tight Oil)라고 지칭되기도 한다. 일부에서는 셰일층이라는 매장위치를 감안해 셰일오일(Shale Oil)이라 부르기도 한다. IEA와 EIA 등 주요 에너지 기관들은 동식물의 사체가 원유로 변하기 전 단계인 케로젠(Kerogen)이 주성분인 오일셰일(Oil Shale)과 오일셰일에 열을 가해 합성 석유로 만든 셰일오일을 타이트 오일과 구분하고 있다. 타이트 오일의 잠재력을 평가하고 중장기 생산 전망과 이로 인한 국제석유시장 파급효과를 살펴본다. 다음은 엘지경제연구원에서 발표한 '셰일혁명으로 부상한 Tight Oil, 유가 안정 역할 커진다'의 주요 내용을 요약 정리한 것이다.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.141-156
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• 2022

This study intends to examine the regional blocs of the international crude oil futures market by analyzing the dynamic conditional correlation between the international crude oil futures markets using the DCC-GARCH model. For statistical data, from April 2, 2018 to March 31, 2022, international crude oil futures prices such as Europe, the United States, China, and Dubai were used. To summarize the results of the study, first, the phenomenon of regional blocs in the international crude oil futures market is occurring, and it is found that it is gradually strengthening as time goes by. Second, it was found that the dynamic correlation of the international crude oil futures market is temporarily strengthened when a supply-demand imbalance problem occurs due to a global shock. Third, it was found that the volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures market affects the international crude oil futures market. This study confirmed that the regional blocs phenomenon in the international crude oil futures market is strengthened as time goes by. In particular, it suggested that China's influence in the international oil market would increase.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.195-216
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• 2013

In this paper, I investigate how international prices affect domestic prices and export prices in Korea by using vector error correction model(VECM) and estimate its impact on international trade. According to the empirical results, international prices, such as world raw material prices and oil prices, make stronger effects on domestic prices, in order of import, export, producer, and consumer prices. And recent years the effect of international raw material prices on domestic prices becomes larger. It implies importers, exporters and producers are more affected by international prices than consumers are. Therefore, the international trade, import and export, is affected by changes in international prices. Firms, especially importing and exporting companies, should do much efforts on risk managing about raw material prices variation, diversification of raw material suppliers, and oversea resources development. The government is needed to support on firms those efforts while doing its economic policies to cope with economic conditions and the price policy.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.289-312
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• 2012

Shipping is a global industry, with 80% of the world's international trade of goods transported by sea. Many countries with large international trade volumes place great importance in developing their shipping industry. Recently changes in the world economy, international trade, world oil prices and other uncertainties have led to increased competition in the world shipping market. This is specially true, along the Pacific coast, where five of the world's major maritime countries, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and the United States are located. This paper aims to compare the international competitiveness of Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and the United States with Port's Diamond Model and AHP analysis. The results of this research give some suggestions for international competitiveness of Chinese shipping industry, is very competitive in quantitative terms but is relatively weak in qualitative terms.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.663-688
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• 2011

Since the liberalization of petroleum product prices in 1997, there has been persistent suspicion with regard to asymmetry in the movement of petroleum product prices in Korea. In particular, academics and consumer groups suggest that prices decided by refining companies and gas stations have moved asymmetrically compared with international petroleum product prices. The primary aim of this study is to determine, using the Error Correction Model, to perform multi-country asymmetry analysis including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Japan. We shows that comparison of domestic prices with international prices in the six countries mentioned above revealed a fairly low level of asymmetry in those countries, although some asymmetry was found in some countries at various times within the period of analysis. To explain the different degrees of asymmetry between countries, this study looked at asymmetry in the United States, Germany and Italy and sought correlations between each country's oil industry structure and its level of competition.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.239-273
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• 2007

Bunker-C is sold at the different price in the market for international bunkering and for export, though the quality of bunker-c is not much different in two markets. The price difference in two markets tends to increase since 2002 in Korea. This study shows that there is a possibility for a structural change in the price difference in two markets in Korea around June, 2002. In the search for possible explanations for this structural change, empirical analyses found that the price difference in Singapore, which had not have any explanatory power before June, 2002, has explained the price difference in Korea after July, 2002. Other explanatory variable for the price difference was the growth rate of crude oil price in the previous period. The empirical results suggest that the price difference in bunkering market and export market might be explained by the price discrimination which is adopted as a competitive strategy by oil companies in competing with Singapore.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.475-495
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• 2006

This paper is to analyse a changing space of energy flows in Northeast Asia from geopolitical and geoeconomic perspectives that have been recently promoted for energy security of countries in this region. The research is based on an analytical framework in an integration of political ecology and political economy. Because of an ever-increasing input of energy resources for economic growth and of dramatically increasing price of crude oil and recent instability of oil market, South Korea, China and Japan have been deeply concerned with energy security and conducted very actively geopolitical strategies. And hence the space of energy flows in the region is now in a process of dynamic reconfiguration, in which the project for development of oil and natural gas fields in East Siberia and construction of pipelines to transport them can be seen as one of competitive issues among these countries. In spite of worrying about stagflation due to rapid increase of oil price, such geo-strategies for energy security and reconfiguration of space of energy flows seem to keep the accumulation of capital in this region continue with generation of huge privatized oil companies.