• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.41-63
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• 2017

FDI can either be absorbed in the production cycle with domestic investment and create an inducement effect or it can remain as an exogenous factor and increase the volatility of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to research these different impacts that FDI could have. For that, the endogenous growth theory was employed. The statistic method used are the panel model for sectoral analysis, and GARCH model and VAR for time series analysis. Myanmar was selected as this paper's research subject because it is one of countries which had a colossal amount of FDI inflow recently. The panel analysis did not confirm the causality between sectoral FDI and sectoral GDP. The reason for this could be in the lack of data, since sectoral data exists yearly only during 2006-2016. Therefore this study conducted the times series analysis. According to the results, during 2006 until 2010, it showed signs of GARCH but the effect of FDI on GDP was nonexistent, which means FDI was not integrated into the domestic production cycle but stayed in residual terms. During 2011 to 2016, FDI seemed to affect the growth of Myanmar's GDP. The estimation confirmed the existence of GARCH and the Granzer causality test confirmed that FDI influenced the GARCH, which signified FDI increased the volatility of GDP. The VAR analysis showed responses of GDP to FDI was small(about 0.0007). This research assumes that FDI can be divided in two parts: one part which can be assimilated in the domestic production cycle and the other where it stays outside of the production cycle. The former creates production inducement effect and the latter only increases the volatility of GDP. According to this study, the latter outweighs the former impact in Myanmar.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.1501-1505
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• 2006

본 연구에서는 국내외적으로 이슈화되고 있는 기후변화가 국내 유역에 미치는 영향을 평가하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 기상연구소에서 구축한 고해상도의 A2 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 국내 5대강 수계에 대해 유출시나리오를 생산하고 결과를 분석하였다. 국내 유역을 139개의 단위유역으로 구분하고 LARS-WG 모형을 적용하여 유역별 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였다. 지역화방법을 적용하여 유역별 장기유출분석 체계를 구축하였으며, PRMS 모형을 이용하여 총 120년에 대해 유출시나리오를 생산하고 과거 30년(1971-2000년) 동안에 대해 미래 세 기간(2001-2030년, 2031-2060년, 2061-2090년)에 대한 수자원의 변동성을 분석하였다. 각 유역에서의 기준기간에 대한 유출량의 변화율은 2015s 기간에서는 $-12%\sim14%$, 2045s 기간에서는 $-23%{\sim}16%$, 2075s 기간에서는 $-14%{\sim}20%$인 것으로 나타났다. 한강권역에서는 평균적으로 5%(2015s), 0.1%(2045s), 6%(2075s)로 다소 증가될 것으로 분석되었고, 낙동강권역에서는 0.1%(2015s), -10%(2045s), -3%(2075s)로 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 섬영과 금강도 예측기간에 대해 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.318-329
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• 2011

This study focuses on enhancing the accuracy of consumption function of Korean natural gas for city gas. It is using time-series model with time-varying coefficients taking into account the recent abnormal temperature phenomenon and the changing gross domestic product (GDP) as important variables. This study estimates the cointegrating regression model for the long-run estimation and the error correction model for the short-run estimation. The consumption function of Korean natural gas is estimated to be influenced by the time-varying coefficients of GDP and temperature. Using the estimated time-series model with time-varying coefficients, this study forecasts the consumption of natural gas for city gas from July 2011 to December 2012. The consumption in 2011 would be 18,303 thousand tons, which is little different from the imported 18,681 thousand tons. The consumption of natural gas for city gas in 2012 is forecast to be 19,213 thousand tons. The consumption model of this study is needed to extend by considering the relative prices between natural gas and its substitutes, the scale of consumers and others.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.171-194
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• 2020

We revisit the impact of oil shocks on the Korean economy and examine how this impact varies depending on a business cycle. First, we estimate the probability of a recession through a logistic probability distribution, and correct the probability to match business cycles announced by the Korea National Statistical Office. We set up a STVAR model to analyze the response of macroeconomic variables to oil shocks according to business cycles. We find that oil shocks during the recession have a negative effect on GDP in the mid- and long-term, but during the expansion, GDP does not show a statistically significant response to oil shocks. We presume that this finding is associated with the factors of both the increase in demand for consumption and the increase in current account during the economic boom. Also, we find that the impact of oil shocks on the price level was also observed differently in terms of the persistence of inflation by business cycle. These results highlight the importance of an application of a regime switching model, which has been widely used in energy economics in recent years.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.387-396
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• 2014

The GDP gap (also called the output gap) is the difference between potential GDP and actual GDP. Potential GDP is the maximum sustainable output that is achieved when the resources (labor and capital) are used to capacity. Central banks pursuing price and employment stability consider the output gap as an informative variable for monetary policy since the output gap could be regarded as a proxy of demand-supply imbalances. In this paper, the GDP gap of Korea is decomposed following the filtering method in the previous research, and major factors that affect the variation of GDP gap are investigated based on the decomposed series. The analysis results by the Super Smoother algorithm used in Fox et al. (2003)and Fox and Zurlinden (2006) are found consistent with theory. Much of the variation of nominal GDP gap is explained by Total Factor Productivity(TFP) gap, which is the change of productivity due to recent technological innovation and environmental change. It is also found that variation of terms of trade significantly affects the GDP gap of Korea due to its high dependency on international trade; however, the effect of the domestic price is not negligible like other countries.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.41-50
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• 2009

Chain-linking is a method for aggregating volume measures which would improve the quality of estimates of economic growth over the present fixed base in Korea. There is a risk that choice of chain-linking techniques such annual overlap, one-quarter overlap or over-the-year overlap may create an artificial seasonality to the volume series. The empirical results on Korean GDP suggest that the use of the annual overlap is recommended. And conducting seasonal adjustment after chain-linking to produce the chain-linked seasonally adjusted GDP is more appropriated in Korea.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.1-26
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• 2018

This study estimates the technical efficiency and total factor productivity(TFP) of and analyzes the relationship between TFP and exports for Korean manufacturing companies from 2000 to 2016. Specially, TFP is decomposed into Technical Change(TC), Technical Efficiency Change (TEC), and Sale Effect(SE), and compared between large and small enterprises. First, in the case of technical efficiency, the Korean economy has been very vulnerable to external shocks, such as the sharp decline following the 2008 financial crisis. The efficiency of the electronics, automobile, and machinery sectors is low and needs to be improved. In addition, the technological efficiency of large enterprises is higher than that of SMEs in most manufacturing sub-sectors except for non-ferrous metals. In the case of TFP, most changes are due to TC, and the effective combination of labor, capital and the effect of scale have little effect, suggesting that improvement of internal structure is urgent. In addition, volatility due to the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 was much larger in SMEs than in large companies, so external economic impacts are more greater for SMEs than large enterprises. The relationship between TFP decomposition factors and exports shows that TC has a positive effect only on exports of SMEs. Therefore, in order to increase exports, in the case of SMEs, R&D support to promote technological development is needed. In the case of large companies, it is necessary to establish differentiated strategies for each export market, competitor company, and item to link efficiency and scale effect of exports.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2011

A chronic drought stress has been imposed during non-rainy season(from winter to spring) since 1990s. We faced the most significant water crisis in 2001, and the drought was characterized by sultry weather and severe drought on a national scale. It has been widely acknowledged that the drought related damage is 2-3 times serious than floods. In the list of the world's largest natural disaster compiled by NOAA, 4 of the top 5 disasters are droughts. And according to the analysis from the NDMC report, the drought has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. There was a very serious impact on the economic such as rising consumer price during the 2001 spring drought in Korea. There has been flood prevention measures implemented at national-level but for mitigation of droughts, there are only plans aimed at emergency (short-term) restoration rather than the comprehensive preventive measures. In addition, there is a lack of a clear set of indicators to express drought situation objectively, and therefore it is important and urgent to begin a systematic study. In this study, a nonstationary downscaling model using RCM based climate change scenario was first applied to simulate precipitation, and the simulated precipitation data was used to derive Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI under climate change was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of drought through principal component analysis at three different time scales which are 2015, 2045 and 2075. It was found that spatio-temporal variability is likely to modulate with climate change.

• Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.83-93
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• 2022

Throughout this research course, we have analyzed the financial situation of more than 2,700 companies using credit evaluation disclosures from 2017 to 2019. The population was gathered based on the certification of Ppuri companies and Ppuri Expertise companies through the Korea National Ppuri Industry Center, accompanied by the NICE credit evaluation index. For the first time in Korea, we wanted to look at growth, profitability, and stability through financial analysis of the Ppuri industry. Through an indepth analysis, we identified operating income (rate), net income (rate), asset size, and debt ratio, along with three years of Ppuri company workers and total sales fluctuations, and looked at the financial structure per capita. In addition, financial status per person was compared by dividing Ppuri companies into six groups by employee size. Groups were 10 or fewer people, 11 to 20 people, 21 to 50 people, 51 to 200 people, 201-300 people, and 300 or more people; single individual companies were excluded for research convenience. Overall, the financial situation of Ppuri companies was judged to be in a very bad downturn, and financial indicators deteriorated over the course of the three years of investigation. In particular, the smaller the number of employees, the greater the financial fluctuations were and the worse the situations were. Among Ppuri companies, the casting industry, which is the technical starting point for the value chain of the industry, was found to also be in a very bad state, with continued workforce declines, total assets and sales reductions at severe levels, and operating income (rate) and net income (rate) also very poor. This is why we need a suitable and feasible policy direction, something that is difficult but must be allowed to develop.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.148-148
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• 2023

산업 고도화로 인하여 복잡하고 다양한 유기물의 사용량이 증가하였으며, 공공수역 내 새로운 오염물질이 유입됨에 따라 생화학적 산소요구량(BOD) 중심의 수질평가에 한계를 나타내었다. 이후 난분해성 물질을 고려한 유기물관리 정책과 총량관리의 필요성이 제기되었고 국내 하천과 호소에서는 총 유기탄소(TOC)를 유기물 관리지표로 설정하였다. 그러나 부영양 하천과 호소에서 TOC는 외부 부하뿐만아니라 식물플랑크톤의 과잉성장에 의해 증가할 수 있는 항목이므로 TOC 관리정책 추진을 위해서는 유기물의 기원에 대한 파악이 필요하다. 한편, 우리나라와 같이 몬순 기후대에 속한 댐 저수지의 경우 강우시 유입하는 탁수에 의해 다량의 유기물과 인이 유입되기도 하지만 식물플랑크톤의 제한요인 중 광량에 많은 영향을 미친다. 식물플랑크톤의 광합성은 수체 내 유기탄소 내부생성에 매우 중요한 요소이나 점 단위의 실험적 방법을 활용한 유기탄소 순환 해석은 저수지의 시·공간적인 변동성을 고려하기에 한계가 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 금강 수계 최대 상수원인 대청호를 대상으로 3차원 수리-수질 모델을 적용하여 유기탄소 성분 별 유입과 유출, 내부생성 및 소멸량을 평가하고 탁수가 저수지에서의 유기탄소 순환에 미치는 영향을 분석하는데 있다. 유기탄소 물질수지 해석을 위해 AEM3D 모델을 사용하였으며 2018년을 대상으로 입력자료를 구축한 후 보정 및 검정을 수행하였다. 모델은 유기탄소를 입자성, 용존성, 그리고 난분해성과 생분해성으로 구분하여 모의하며 유기물질 성상별 실험결과를 이용하여 입력자료를 구축하였으며 유기탄소순환 해석을 위해 4가지의 탄소성분과 조류 세포 내 탄소의 질량 변화율을 계산하였다. 이를 위해 외부 유입·유출부하율, 수체 내 생성(일차생산, 재부상, 퇴적물과 수체 간 확산) 및 소멸률(POC 및 조류 침강, DOC 무기화, 탈질)을 고려하였으며 탁수의 영향을 분석하기 위해 탁수 포함여부 시나리오를 구성하고 유기탄소 생성 및 소멸기작별 변동성을 비교 분석하였다. 모델은 2018년의 물수지를 적절히 재현하였으며 저수지의 수온 및 탁도 성층구조를 잘 재현해내면서 전반적인 수질을 적절하게 모의하였다. 탁수를 고려하였을 시 연간 TOC 부하량 중 내부기원 부하량은 56% 수준이였으나 탁수를 배제한 경우 내부기원 부하량은 82%로 나타났다. 특히, 연평균 Chl-a 농도가 44~48% 차이가 발생하면서 1차생산량이 약 4배가량 증가하였다. 몬순지역에서의 탁수는 체류시간이 긴 성층 저수지에서 식물플랑크톤 성장제어에 큰 영향을 미쳤으며 전반적인 유기탄소 순환을 해석하는데 있어 매우 중요한 인자로 작용하였다.