• Title/Summary/Keyword: 구조 오차

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Influence of Liquidity on the Housing Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations (거시경제변동 전후 유동성이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Hoon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.116-124
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    • 2016
  • In the past, once apartments were built by housing construction companies, their presale went smoothly. Therefore, the developer and construction companies in Korea were extremely competitive in the housing market. However, when the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and 2008 global financial crisis occurred, the quantity of unsold new housing stocks rapidly increased, which caused construction companies to experience a serious liquidity crisis. This paper aims at analyzing the influence of Liquidity on the Housing Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations using VECM. The periods from September 2001 to September 2008 and from October 2008 to October 2015, which were before and after the Subprime financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, it is important to develop a long-term policy for the housing transaction market to improve household incomes. Second, due to the shortage in the supply of jeonse housing, structural changes in the housing market have appeared. Thus, it is necessary to seek political measures to minimize the impact of transitional changes on the market.

Development of a Simulation Prediction System Using Statistical Machine Learning Techniques (통계적 기계학습 기술을 이용한 시뮬레이션 결과 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Ki Yong;Shin, YoonJae;Choe, YeonJeong;Kim, SeonJeong;Suh, Young-Kyoon;Sa, Jeong Hwan;Lee, JongSuk Luth;Cho, Kum Won
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.5 no.11
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    • pp.593-606
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    • 2016
  • Computer simulation is widely used in a variety of computational science and engineering fields, including computational fluid dynamics, nano physics, computational chemistry, structural dynamics, and computer-aided optimal design, to simulate the behavior of a system. As the demand for the accuracy and complexity of the simulation grows, however, the cost of executing the simulation is rapidly increasing. It, therefore, is very important to lower the total execution time of the simulation especially when that simulation makes a huge number of repetitions with varying values of input parameters. In this paper we develop a simulation service system that provides the ability to predict the result of the requested simulation without actual execution for that simulation: by recording and then returning previously obtained or predicted results of that simulation. To achieve the goal of avoiding repetitive simulation, the system provides two main functionalities: (1) storing simulation-result records into database and (2) predicting from the database the result of a requested simulation using statistical machine learning techniques. In our experiments we evaluate the prediction performance of the system using real airfoil simulation result data. Our system on average showed a very low error rate at a minimum of 0.9% for a certain output variable. Using the system any user can receive the predicted outcome of her simulation promptly without actually running it, which would otherwise impose a heavy burden on computing and storage resources.

Developing an Accident Model for Rural Signalized Intersections Using a Random Parameter Negative Binomial Method (RPNB모형을 이용한 지방부 신호교차로 교통사고 모형개발)

  • PARK, Min Ho;LEE, Dongmin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.554-563
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    • 2015
  • This study dealt with developing an accident model for rural signalized intersections with random parameter negative binomial method. The limitation of previous count models(especially, Poisson/Negative Binomial model) is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinctive characters a specific point/segment has. This drawback of the traditional count models results in the underestimation of the standard error(t-value inflation) of the derived coefficient and finally affects the low-reliability of the whole model. To solve this problem, this study improves the limitation of traditional count models by suggesting the use of random parameter which takes account of heterogeneity of each point/segment. Through the analyses, it was found that the increase of traffic flow and pedestrian facilities on minor streets had positive effects on the increase of traffic accidents. Left turning lanes and median on major streets reduced the number of accidents. The analysis results show that the random parameter modeling is an effective method for investigating the influence on traffic accident from road geometries. However, this study could not analyze the effects of sequential changes of driving conditions including geometries and safety facilities.

Development of Travel Time Functions Considering Intersection Delay (교차로 지체를 고려한 통행시간함수 개발)

  • Oh, Sang-Jin;Park, Sang-Hyuk;Park, Byung-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2008
  • The goals of this study are to develop travel time functions based on intersection delay and to analyze the applicability of the functions to traffic assignment models. The study begins with the premise that the existing assignment models can not effectively account for intersection delay time. In pursuing the goals, this study gives particular attention to dividing the link travel time into link moving time and stopped time at node, making the models based on such variables as the travel speed, volume, geometry, and signal data of signalized intersections in Cheongju, and analyzing the applicability of these models to traffic assignment. There are several major findings. First, the study presents the revised percentage of lanes (considering type of intersection) instead of g/C for calculating intersection delay, which is analyzed to be significant in the paired t-test. Second, the assigned results of applying these models to the Cheongju network in EMME/2 are compared with the data observed from a test car survey in Cheongju. The analyses show that the BPR models do not consider the intersection delay, but the modified uniform delay model and modified Webster model are comparatively well fitted to the observed data. Finally, the assigned results of applying these models are statistically compared with the test car survey data in assigned volume, travel time, and average speed. The results show that the estimates from the divided travel time model are better fitted to observed data than those from the BPR model.

Simulations of Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Rainfall-Induced Turbidity Flow in a Reservoir Using CE-QUAL-W2 (CE-QUAL-W2 모형을 이용한 저수지 탁수의 시공간분포 모의)

  • Chung, Se-Woong;Oh, Jung-Kuk;Ko, Ick-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.8 s.157
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    • pp.655-664
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    • 2005
  • A real-time monitoring and modeling system (RTMMS) for rainfall-induced turbidity flow, which is one of the major obstacles for sustainable use of reservoir water resources, is under development. As a prediction model for the RTMMS, a laterally integrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2 was tested by simulating the temperature stratification, density flow regimes, and temporal and spatial distributions of turbidity in a reservoir. The inflow water temperature and turbidity measured every hour during the flood season of 2004 were used as the boundary conditions. The monitoring data showed that inflow water temperature drop by 5 to $10^{\circ}C$ during rainfall events in summer, and consequently resulted in the development of density flow regimes such as plunge flow and interflow in the reservoir. The model showed relatively satisfactory performance in replicating the water temperature profiles and turbidity distributions, although considerable discrepancies were partially detected between observed and simulated results. The model was either very efficient in computation as the CPU run time to simulate the whole flood season took only 4 minutes with a Pentium 4(CPU 2.0GHz) desktop computer, which is essentially requited for real-time modeling of turbidity plume.

Evaluation of Groundwater Flow for the Kap-cheon Basin (갑천 유역의 지하수 유동 평가)

  • Hong, Sung-Hun;Kim, Jeong-Kon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.6 s.179
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    • pp.431-446
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    • 2007
  • Groundwater flow in a basin is greatly affected by many hydrogeological and hydrological characteristics of the basin. A groundwater flow model for the Kap-cheon basin ($area=648.3km^2$) in the Geum river basin was established using MODFLOW by fully considering major features obtained from observed data of 438 wells and 24 streams. Furthermore, spatial groundwater recharge distribution was estimated employing accurately calibrated watershed model developed using SWAT, a physically semi-distributed hydrological model. Model calibration using observed groundwater head data at 86 observation wells yielded the deterministic coefficient of 0.99 and the water budget discrepancy of 0.57%, indicating that the model well represented the regional groundwater flow in the Kap-cheon basin. Model simulation results showed that groundwater flow in the basin was strongly influenced by such factors as topological features, aquifer characteristics and streams. The streams in mountainous areas were found to alternate gaining and losing steams, while the streams in the vicinity of the mid-stream and down-stream, especially near the junction of Kap-cheon and Yudeong-cheon, areas were mostly appeared as gaining streams. Analysis of water budget showed that streams in mountainous areas except for the mid-stream and up-stream of Yudeong-cheon were mostly fed by groundwater recharge while the streams in the mid and down-stream areas were supplied from groundwater inflows from adjacent sub-basins. Hence, it was concluded that the interactions between surface water-groundwater in the Kap-cheon basin would be strongly inter-connected with not only streams but also groundwater flow system itself.

청주화강암의 U-Pb 스핀 연대

  • 정창식;정연중;길영우;정기영
    • Proceedings of the Mineralogical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.53-53
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    • 2003
  • 남한에 분포하는 현생 화강암류는 트라이아스기-쥬라기의 소위 대보화강암과 백악기-제3기의 불국사화강암으로 분류되어 왔다. 대보조산운동은 대동누층군의 퇴적이후에 일어난 조구조운동을 지칭하므로 트라이아스기의 화강암을 포함하는 대보화강암이라는 명칭은 그와 사실상 직접적인 관계는 없다. 트라이아스기-쥬라기의 화강암은 영덕, 청송 암체 외에는 경상분지 밖에 위치하고 백악기-제3기의 화강암은 속리산, 월악산 암체 외에는 경상분지 안쪽에 주로 분포한다. 트라이아스기-쥬라기의 화강암 중 영광-대전-청주-충주-원주-강릉 방면에 걸쳐 북동-남서 방향으로 분포하는 화강암질 저반은 남한에서 가장 넓은 면적을 차지하는 화강암체지만 신뢰할만한 연대측정 자료가 매우 부족한 실정이다. 이 화강암질 저반에 대해서는 Rb-Sr, K-Ar법이 해답을 주기 어렵다. 예를 들어 청주-음성-증평 지역의 화강암류에 대한 Rb-Sr 전암 자료는 분산이 심하며 약 380 Ma에 해당되는 초시선을 보여 기원물질의 불균질성 내지 불완전한 혼합 효과를 반영하고 있다. 옥천대와 영남육괴에 분포하는 일부 화강암체에 대해 잘못 보고된 Rb-Sr 전암연대 역시 모두 중광물의 U-Pb 연대보다 오래된 값을 보이는 것으로 보아 이들은 생성 당시부터 일정한 $^{87}$ Sr/$^{86}$Sr 초기치를 가지지 않고 Rb/Sr 비에 따른 양(+)의 기울기를 가졌음이 확실하다. 과잉의 방사기원 Ar을 가지거나 폐쇄온도가 낮은 광물들을 대상으로 한 K-Ar 자료 역시 화강암체의 관입편대를 정확하게 지시할 수는 없다. 우리는 이에 대한 연구의 일환으로 충청남도 청원군의 물류센터에서 채취한 중립질의 흑운모화강암 한 시료에 대한 U-Pb 스핀연대측정 결과를 다음과 같이 보고한다. $^{206}$ Pb$^{*}$ /$^{238}$ U age = 174.6$\pm$2.7 Ma $^{207}$ Pb$^{*}$ /$^{235}$ U age = 170.3$\pm$14.6 Ma $^{207}$ Pb$^{*}$ /$^{206}$ Pb sup */ age = 111$\pm$187 Ma 위에서 볼 수 있듯이 청주화강암의 스핀에 대해 콘코던트(concordant)한 연대가 얻어졌으며 자료의 오차, 스핀의 U-Pb계에 대한 폐쇄온도 및 화강암의 솔리더스(solidus)를 고려할 때 $^{206}$ Pb$^{*}$ /$^{238}$ U 연대인 174.6$\pm$2.7 Ma를 관입정치시기로 해석한다. 동일 시료의 흑운모에 대해서는 145 Ma의 Rb-Sr 연대가 얻어졌으며 따라서 관입이후 약 35$0^{\circ}C$까지 대략 1$0^{\circ}C$/Ma의 냉각속도를 구할 수 있었다. 청주화강암의 쥬라기 중기 연대는 영광-대전-청주-충주-원주-강릉 지역의 화강암질 저반이 대동누층군 퇴적 이후에 일어난 지구조 사건과 연관되었을 가능성을 지시하지만 이를 확인하기 위해서는 더 많은 자료가 요구된다. 우리는 현재 충주, 괴산 지역의 화강암체에 대해서도 스핀 연대측정을 수행중에 있으며 이들 자료를 암상을 구분하여 해석한다면 우리나라 중생대 지구조운동에 대한 새로운 사실이 밝혀질 수 있을 것으로 믿는다.

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GIS spatial D/B formation of geothermal data and Distribution of Heat Flow of Korea (한국의 지열자료 GIS 공간 D/B 구축과 지열류량 분포)

  • Kim, Hyoung-Chan;Lee, Young-Min;Park, Jeong-Min
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.459-460
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    • 2006
  • 현재 남한의 지열류량 측정값으로는 총 363개 지점의 자료가 측정 및 수집되어 있다. 이것은 Mizutani et at. (1970), 장정진 외(1970), 그리고 서정희(1976) 등의 자료, 총 35개의 자료도 추가된 것이다. 1989년 이후부터 측정된 지열류량 자료는 217개 자료이며(임정웅 외, 1989; 임정웅 외, 1996; Lim and Kim, 1997; 염병우 외, 1997), 모두 직접 측정한 것이나, 1989년 이후 보고된 지열류량 자료에 약간의 오류가 있어 이번 연구에서 수정 보완하였다. 또한 과거의 자료 35개 자료는 이미 지열류량 측정치가 논문화 되어 있는 것으로 암석시료는 없다 1989년 이후 2004년까지 자료 217개 2005년도 추가 자료 111개의 지열류량 자료는 암석시료도 있으며, 측정기기가 서로 달라 오차가 있을 수 있어 서로 보정을 해야 할 필요가 있어 시추공 주변 암석을 새로 수집해서 신장비로 다시 측정 보정하였다. 지열류량 D/B 구축은 각 자료의 일련번호, 고유번호 (Sn.), 위경도 좌표 (longitude, lattitude), 암석의 열전도도(thermal conductivity), 지온경사 (thermal gradient), 지열류량 (heat flow)등으로 구성되어 있다. 지열류량 자료 공간 데이터베이스는 점 속성을 가지며 자료형태는 각종 소프트웨어와 호환성이 좋은 shape 파일 형태로 작성하였다. 또만 최근 천부 토양 및 암석 열물성을 이용한 냉난방시스템 즉, Heat Pump System 설계를 위하여 반드시 들어가야 하는 요소인 열확산율, 공극율, 밀도, 비열 등 열물성 특성을 추가하여 GIS 공간 D/B구축하였다. 대륙붕 자료 4개 자료를 제외하고 359개의 지열류량 자료를 이용하여 한반도 남부, 즉 남한의 지열류량 분포도를 작성 분석해 본 결과(그림 1), 우리나라의 지열류량 이상대는 아산만 주변, 보령, 유성, 진안, 울진, 포항, 부산 지역과 포천, 속초, 충주, 수안보 등 지역에서 나타난다 이러한 이상대 주변에는 대개 온천이 발달되어 있었거나 새로 개발되어 있는 곳이다. 온천에 이용하고 있는 시추공의 자료는 배제하였으나 온천이응으로 직접적으로 영향을 받지 않은 시추공의 자료는 사용하였다 이러한 온천 주변 지역이라 하더라도 실제는 온천의 pumping 으로 인한 대류현상으로 주변 일대의 온도를 올려놓았기 때문에 비교적 높은 지열류량 값을 보인다. 한편 한반도 남동부 일대는 이번 추가된 자료에 의해 새로운 지열류량 분포 변화가 나타났다 강원 북부 오색온천지역 부근에서 높은 지열류량 분포를 보이며 또한 우리나라 대단층 중의 하나인 양산단층과 같은 방향으로 발달한 밀양단층, 모량단층, 동래단층 등 주변부로 NNE-SSW 방향의 지열류량 이상대가 발달한다. 이것으로 볼 때 지열류량은 지질구조와 무관하지 않음을 파악할 수 있다. 특히 이러한 단층대 주변은 지열수의 순환이 깊은 심도까지 가능하므로 이러한 대류현상으로 지표부근까지 높은 지온 전달이 되어 나타나는 것으로 판단된다.

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Verification Method for Quantity Takeoff Results of Concrete Works using Design Drawing Information (도면정보 기반 건축공사 콘크리트 물량산출 성과물 검증방안 개발)

  • Lim, Haejin;Choi, Chang-Hoon;Han, Choong-Hee;Lee, Junbok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2020
  • In construction project, an error in quantity information immediately leads to an error in the quotation, highly reliable quantity calculation is required for successful performance of a project. But there is a difficulty in the current situation for the person in charge to review all calculation sheets for quantity review as the quotation work has to be performed in a short period of time. Accordingly, it is thought that a review plan is required to secure reliability on calculated results and the review plan should be able to be carried out within insufficient quotation periods. In the present paper, it is intended to present a plan that enables quantity to be reviewed with the minimum number of persons within the shortest period of time through an algorithm of calculating a verification quantity. The suggested algorithm allows the result of quantity calculation work carried out earlier based on 2-dimensional drawing to be compared, not with an accurate quantity, but within an error range.

Design of a 1 × 2 Array Microstrip Antenna for Active Beam Compensation at X-band (X-밴드 능동적 빔 보상 1 × 2 배열 마이크로스트립 안테나 설계)

  • Choi, Yoon-Seon;Woo, Jong-Myung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents an X-band (9.375 GHz) $1{\times}2$ array microstrip antenna which is capable of active beam compensation for installation of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). First of all, a basic $1{\times}2$ array microstrip antenna incorporated with wilkinson power divider was designed and performance of the array antenna was verified. Next, to verify beam steering performance of the designed array microstrip antenna, we fabricated a phase shifter, and the wilkinson power divider as module structure and measured characteristics of beam steering according to phase shifting. The main lobe is 0.6 dBi at $0^{\circ}$, and the side lobe decreased 18.8 dB. The reliable radiation pattern was achieved. Finally, an active beam steering microstrip array antenna attached with the phase shifter and the power divider on the back side of the antenna was designed and fabricated to install wing of UAV for compactness. The maximum gain is 0.1 dBi. Therefore, we obtained a basic antenna technology for compensating beam error according to wing deformation of an UAV installed array antennas.