• Title/Summary/Keyword: 관측전략

Search Result 172, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Estimating Average Causal Effect in Latent Class Analysis (잠재범주분석을 이용한 원인적 영향력 추론에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Gayoung;Chung, Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.27 no.7
    • /
    • pp.1077-1095
    • /
    • 2014
  • Unlike randomized trial, statistical strategies for inferring the unbiased causal relationship are required in the observational studies. Recently, new methods for the causal inference in the observational studies have been proposed such as the matching with the propensity score or the inverse probability treatment weighting. They have focused on how to control the confounders and how to evaluate the effect of the treatment on the result variable. However, these conventional methods are valid only when the treatment variable is categorical and both of the treatment and the result variables are directly observable. Research on the causal inference can be challenging in part because it may not be possible to directly observe the treatment and/or the result variable. To address this difficulty, we propose a method for estimating the average causal effect when both of the treatment and the result variables are latent. The latent class analysis has been applied to calculate the propensity score for the latent treatment variable in order to estimate the causal effect on the latent result variable. In this work, we investigate the causal effect of adolescents delinquency on their substance use using data from the 'National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health'.

A Study on GNSS Data Pre-processing for Analyzing Geodetic Effects on Crustal Deformation due to the Earthquake (지진에 의한 측지학적 지각변동 분석을 위한 GNSS 자료 전처리 연구)

  • Sohn, Dong Hyo;Kim, Du Sik;Park, Kwan Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-54
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, we developed strategies for pre-processing GNSS data for the purpose of separating geodetic factors from crustal deformation due to the earthquakes. Before interpreting GNSS data analysis results, we removed false signals from GNSS coordinate time series. Because permanent GNSS stations are located on a large tectonic plate, GNSS position estimates should be affected by the tectonic velocity of the plate. Also, stations with surrounding trees have seasonal signals in their three-dimensional coordinate estimates. Thus, we have estimated the location of an Euler pole and angular velocities to deduce the plate tectonic velocity and verified with geological models. Also, annual amplitudes and initial phases were estimated to get rid of those false annual signals showing up in the time series. By considering the two effects, truly geodetic analysis was possible and the result was used as preliminary data for analyzing post-seismic deformation of the Korean peninsula due to the Tohoku-oki earthquake.

Current status and Prospects on the Aerial Monitoring (국토 공중모니터링 현황과 발전방향)

  • Shin, Hyu-Seok;Park, Chung-Ki;Kim, Yeon-Mi;Hwang, Sun-Young;Park, Key-Ho
    • Spatial Information Research
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.173-192
    • /
    • 2008
  • Recent climate fluctuation and environmental change at global scale are causing more incidences of disasters and calamities over the world. In a response to this environmental crisis, international collaboration for Earth Observation(EO) is obtaining more significance in order to understand, watch, and forecast changes in the earth system. As such, aerial monitoring based on remotely sensed data, indispensable for EO, is also drawing more attentions. In this context, we discuss diverse aspects of future developments in the Korean domestic system for aerial monitoring. This paper first thoroughly examines current status of national and international collaboration system arid research of aerial monitoring. It then suggests specific development plans for four critical dimensions such as research, organization, institutional systems, and strategies. Our study would facilitate systematically establishing policies for aerial monitoring in Korea and creating a domestic GEOSS(Global Earth Observation System of Systems) in the near future.

  • PDF

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Level Behavior in Geum River Basin using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 금강유역의 지하수위 거동 평가)

  • Lee, Ji Wan;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Da Rae;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2017.05a
    • /
    • pp.84-84
    • /
    • 2017
  • IPCC 4차 보고서(2007)에 따르면, 미래 기후변화로 인한 가장 취약한 부분으로 강수패턴의 시 공간 변화로 인한 가용 수자원의 변화를 선정하였으며 IPCC 5차 보고서(2014)는 특히 아시아지역은 지역별 대처전략수립, 물 재활용 등 수자원 다양화, 통합형 수자원 관리를 권고하였다. 지하수의 변화와 같이 흐름속도가 느리고 지속적인 요소의 경우에는 지표 기후변화의 영향을 쉽게 인식할 수 없으나 지표변화에 따른 변동이 지하수 환경에서 관측되기 시작하면 그 영향은 지표보다 훨씬 장기적으로 나타남에 따라 미래 기후변화에 따른 수자원의 효율적 관리를 위해서 지하수 거동에 대한 분석이 요구된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 금강유역($9,865km^2$)을 대상으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)을 이용하여 지표수와 지하수의 상호작용에 의한 물수지 분석을 수행하고, 기후변화에 따른 지하수 거동을 평가하였다. 유역의 물수지 분석을 위해 금강유역을 표준유역 단위로 구분하고, 기상자료, 다목적댐(대청댐, 용담댐)과 다기능보(공주보, 백제보, 세종보) 운영자료와, 국가지하수정보센터에서 관측 및 관리하고 있는 지하수위 관측 자료를 수집하였다. SWAT 모형의 신뢰성 있는 유출량 보정을 위해 금강유역 내 위치하는 다목적댐 및 다기능보의 실측 방류량을 이용하여 댐 운영모의를 고려하였고, 실측 지하수위, 토양수분 자료를 이용하여 모형의 보정(2005~2009)과 검증(2010~2015)을 실시하였다. 기후변화에 따른 지하수 거동 분석을 위해 기후변화 시나리오는 기상청의 HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오를 적용하였으며, 기준년(1975-2005)년에 대해 2020s(2010-2039), 2050s(2040-2069), 2080s(2070-2099)의 지하수위 거동을 분석하였다.

  • PDF

Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Skill of Springtime Droughts over Northeast Asia in Climate Forecast Models (기후 예보 모델의 동북아시아 봄철 가뭄 예측성 연구)

  • Jonghun Kam;Byeong-Hee Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2023.05a
    • /
    • pp.42-42
    • /
    • 2023
  • 최근 IPCC 6차 보고서에서는 전 지구의 온도가 0.5℃가 증가할 때마다 기상학적 가뭄 지역이 증가하며, 인위적 강제력은 가뭄 현상의 강도와 빈도를 증가하는 것으로 밝혔다. 봄철(3월-5월) 동남아시아(남중국, 필리핀 등)에 비해 상대적으로 건조한 동북아시아(동중국, 한반도, 일본) 지역은 가뭄에 취약하며 기후 변화에 따라 가뭄으로 인한 피해가 커질 것으로 전망된다. 그러므로 이 지역은 봄철 가뭄으로 인한 피해를 완화하기 위해 봄철 강수량에 대한 신뢰할 만한 계절적 예보 기술이 꼭 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 1992-2022년 봄철의 Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) 값을 기준으로 2001년과 2011년 동북아시아 가뭄이 발생한 것을 확인하였으며, 각 해의 3월에 관측된 기상학적 초기 조건으로부터 다중 기후 예보 모델들의 봄철 강수량의 계절적 예측성을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 관측자료로부터 2001년 가뭄은 동북아시아 대기 상층의 저기압성 순환의 강화로 인한 제트류(Jet stream)의 강화와 연관되어 있었으며, 2011년 가뭄은 제트류 강화와 함께 태평양 열대 지역 기류 강화가 동반되어 발생하였음을 알 수 있었다. North American Multi-Model Ensemble 기후 예보 모델들은 2011년 가뭄에 비해 2001년 가뭄에 대한 예측성이 높았으며, 그 이유로는 대기 상층 순환의 예측성과 연관이 있음을 밝혔다. 또한, 봄철 대기-해양 상호 패턴을 관측과 유사하게 재현한 GFDL-SPEARS 모델이 가뭄 해의 대기 상층 저기압성 순환과 강수 예측성이 가장 높은 것을 보였다. 본 연구의 결과들을 통해 동북아시아 봄철 가뭄과 같은 극한 기상의 강수량 예측성 향상에 있어서 기후 예보 모델들의 현실적인 대기-해양 결합 과정 모사 능력의 중요성을 밝혔다. 본 연구에서 제안된 방안들은 기후 예측 모델 개선을 위한 전략적인 정보를 제공할 것으로 보인다.

  • PDF

The Effect of Science Teaching Efficacy Belief of Secondary School Teachers on Astronomy Topics: Based on Grounded Theories (중등 교사의 과학 교수 효능감이 천문 수업에 미치는 영향 : 근거이론을 중심으로)

  • Bae, Sunghee;Kim, Hyoungbum
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.607-616
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to confirm how the students have responded to their class according to STEB (science teaching efficacy belief) of secondary science teacher in astronomy classes. Middle school teachers in charge of 'The Solar System' and 'The Exosphere and Space Development' in the 2009 Revision Science Curriculum content system is selected as an object of study through random sampling method. Twenty-nine teachers were taken STEB questionnaire and asked to make it out. Twenty-seven completed a questionnaire of them is selected for this study. In addition, the top and bottom 5% selected through frequency analysis with the total score from the questionnaire were regarded as high and low STEB teachers. For data collection, this study was used methods such as semi-structured interviews, recording, participant observation. The results were as follows: First, science teachers of high STEB had a high accessibility about excellent professional knowledge and content of the curriculum relating to astronomical field. Second, high STEB teachers were prepared by the appropriate teaching strategies adequate to student-centered learning, whereas the low STEB teachers totally have had teacher-centered learning. Third, high STEB teachers had been provided as the idea that you can take advantage of a variety of instruments, as well as scientific knowledge through the Astronomical Society. Therefore, confidence in astronomical class and teaching strategies through content of the curriculum were very important variables to predict the STEB as well as astronomy-related class activities such as astronomical observations.

Suggestions for an Effective Earthquake R&D Strategy in Korea through an Analysis of Japan's Earthquake Disaster Prevention System (일본의 지진방재·대응 시스템 분석을 통한 효과적인 우리나라 지진 R&D 전략 제언)

  • Kim, Seong-Yong;Lee, Jae-Wook
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.53 no.3
    • /
    • pp.321-336
    • /
    • 2020
  • The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) represents the upper-most level of Japan's earthquake disaster prevention governance. Its policy committee establishes the national earthquake investigation research promotion plan. The earthquake investigation committee of HERP collects survey geo-data and evaluates the research results of each earthquake disaster prevention agency. The establishment of an earthquake-related geo-resilience research strategy is both necessary and desirable for Korea. The concept of geo-resilience entails the ability to improve disaster resilience through the application of research results and the convergence of geoscience with science and technology (S&T) including the humanities and social sciences. The achievement of geo-resilience requires a national long-term roadmap and strategy for earthquake prediction research, the development of earthquake disaster prediction and prevention technology, Geo-ICT convergence technology development, implementation of a geocyber physics system (Geo-CPS), the use of geo-mimetics, and geoscientific R&D as it relates to local communities. Through such efforts, the national research institutes of Korea will be able to develop earthquake prediction capacities in relevant fields, reinforce proactive response capabilities, enhance community-level confidence in geodata and its research results, foster next-generation geoscientific manpower, and expand geoscientific infrastructure.

Performance Improvement Strategies on Minimum Distance Classification for Large-Set handwritten Character Recognition (대용량 필기 문자인식을 위한 최소거리 분류법의 성능 개선 전략)

  • Kim, Soo-Hyung
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
    • /
    • v.5 no.10
    • /
    • pp.2600-2608
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper proposes an algorithm for off line recognition of handwritten characters, especially effective for large-set characters such as Korean and Chinese characters. The algorithm is based on a minimum distance dlassification method which is simple and easy to implement but suffers from low recognition performance. Two strategies have been developed to improve its performance; one is multi-stage pre-classification and the other is candicate reordering. Effectiveness of the algorithm has been proven by and experimet with the samples of 574 classes in a handwritten Korean character catabase named PE02, where 86.0% of recognition accuracy and 15 characters per second of processing speed have been obtained.

  • PDF

Automatic Identification of Fiducial Marks Existing on Aerial Photographs (항공사진에 포함된 사진 지표의 자동 인식)

  • Cho, Seong-Ik;Bang, Ki-In;Kim, Kyung-Ok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.10 no.3 s.21
    • /
    • pp.79-87
    • /
    • 2002
  • This paper proposes an approach of automatically identifying the center of fiducial marks using radiometric and geometric characteristics of those marks existing on aerial photographs. Candidate region surrounding a mark, based on radiometric strategy, is determined by producing a bi-level image and by applying morphological operations. Based on geometric strategy, the central location of a mark is determined by applying ${\bigtriangledown}^G$ filtering and symmetry-enhancement filtering, and by finding peak location of symmetry. Evaluation with respect to 66 cases of sub-images containing a fiducial mark showed that the central location of the mark is determined up to around one pixel difference whit it is compared to a manual inspection.

  • PDF

Application of MODIS Aerosol Data for Aerosol Type Classification (에어로졸 종류 구분을 위한 MODIS 에어로졸 자료의 적용)

  • Lee, Dong-Ha;Lee, Kwon-Ho;Kim, Young-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.495-505
    • /
    • 2006
  • In order to classify aerosol type, Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Fine mode Fraction (FF), which is the optical thickness ratio of small particles$(<1{\mu}m)$ to total particles, data from MODIS (MODerate Imaging Spectraradiometer) aerosol products were analyzed over North-East Asia during one year period of 2005. A study area was in the ocean region of $20^{\circ}N\sim50^{\circ}N$ and $110^{\circ}E\simt50^{\circ}E$. Three main atmospheric aerosols such as dust, sea-salt, and pollution can be classified by using the relationship between AOT and FF. Dust aerosol has frequently observed over the study area with relatively high aerosol loading (AOT>0.3) of large particles (FF<0.65) and its contribution to total AOT in spring was up to 24.0%. Pollution aerosol, which is originated from anthropogenic sources as well as a natural process like biomass burning, has observed in the regime of high FF (>0.65) with wide AOT variation. Average pollution AOT was $0.31{\pm}0.05$ and its contribution to total AOT was 79.8% in summer. Characteristic of sea-salt aerosol was identified with low AOT (<0.3), almost below 0.1, and slightly higher FF than dust and lower FF than pollution. Seasonal analysis results show that maximum AOT $(0.33{\pm}0.11)$ with FF $(0.66{\pm}0.21)$ in spring and minimum AOT $(0.19{\pm}0.05)$, FF $(0.60{\pm}0.14)$ in fall were observed in the study area. Spatial characteristic was that AOT increasing trend is observed as closing to the eastern part of China due to transport of aerosols from China by the prevailing westerlies.