• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.159-174
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• 2015

Dragomiretskiy and Zosso (2014) developed a new decomposition method, termed variational mode decomposition (VMD), which is efficient for handling the tone detection and separation of signals. However, VMD may be inefficient in the presence of missing data since it is based on a fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm. To overcome this problem, we propose a new approach based on a novel combination of VMD and hierarchical (or h)-likelihood method. The h-likelihood provides an effective imputation methodology for missing data when VMD decomposes the signal into several meaningful modes. A simulation study and real data analysis demonstrates that the proposed method can produce substantially effective results.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.431-444
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• 2014

We introduce the empirical model decomposition (EMD) to decompose a time series into a set of components in the time-frequency domain. By using EMD, we also extract cycle and trend components from major Korean macroeconomic indices and forecast the indices with the components combined. In order to evaluate their efficiencies, we investigate volatility, autocorrelation, persistence, Granger causality, nonstationarity, and forecasting performance. They are then compared with those by Hodrick-Prescott filter which is the most commonly used method.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.525-537
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• 2016

The paper considers a hybrid model to analyze and forecast time series data based on an empirical mode decomposition (EMD) that accommodates complex characteristics of time series such as nonstationarity and nonlinearity. We aggregate IMFs using the concept of cumulative energy to improve the interpretability of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from EMD. We forecast aggregated IMFs and residue with a hybrid model that combines the ARIMA model and an exponential smoothing method (ETS). The proposed method is applied to forecast KOSPI time series and is compared to traditional forecast models. Aggregated IMFs and residue provide a convenience to interpret the short, medium and long term dynamics of the KOSPI. It is also observed that the hybrid model with ARIMA and ETS is superior to traditional and other types of hybrid models.