• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.119-129
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• 2022

In this paper, we predict the earthquake magnitudes which were recently occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, using statistical methods based on historical data. For this purpose, we use the five-year block maximum data of 1392~1771 period, which has a relatively high annual density, among the historical earthquake magnitude data of the Chosun Dynasty. Then, we present the prediction and analysis of earthquake magnitudes for the return level over return period in the Chosun Dynasty using the extreme value theory based on the distribution of generalized extreme values (GEV). We use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and L-moments estimation for parameters of GEV distribution. In particular, this study also demonstrates via the goodness-of-fit tests that the GEV distribution can be an appropriate analytical model for these historical earthquake magnitude data.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.433-433
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• 2018

한국은 지진에 대한 관심이 낮았으나, 2016년 09월 12일 경상북도 경주에서 가장 큰 규모인 5.8의 지진이 발생하였으며, 강력한 지진이 발생할 수 있다는 경고가 이어지고 있다. 지진과 관련된 정확한 원인 분석과 정량적인 평가가 체계적으로 이루어지지 않고 있어, 규모와 빈도, 위험지역 분석 등 정밀한 평가와 예방대책을 마련해야 한다. 정량적인 지진 발생 분석을 위해 본 연구에서는 지진 발생과 지하수와 같은 수문기상학적인 인자에 의해 영향을 받는다는 가설을 세우고 지하수의 변동 패턴과 지진의 발생 패턴의 유사점을 추정하였다. 이를 위해 지진자료의 통계적인 특성을 분석하였다. 그리고 지질특성이나 지각 판 운동 외에도 수문순환이 영향을 미치는지 확인하기 위해 육지와 바다에서 발생한 지진으로 구분하여 지진발생횟수와 에너지를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 육지와 바다로 구분했을 때 바다에서 더 많은 지진이 일어났다. 또한 Wilcoxon rank-sum test 비모수 추정기법을 통하여 분석한 결과 서로 다른 성질을 보여 따로 분석하였다. 그 결과, 동해와 남해, 서해와 동해가 같은 성질을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고 육지는 8월부터 이듬해 7월까지 지진발생의 한 주기를 이룰 가능성을 보였다. 그러나 바다는 육지와 정반대로 2월부터 7월까지 많은 지진 에너지가 발생하고 있으며, 1월까지는 에너지 수준이 상대적으로 낮은 것으로 분석되었다. 이와 같이 지하수가 육지에서 바다까지 유동하는 시간으로 인해 6개월의 시간지연이 발생하는 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.238-238
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• 2018

2011년 동일본 대지진으로 발생된 지진해일로 인해 막대한 경제적 손실과 인명피해가 발생하였고, 2차적 사회적 피해가 지속되고 있다. 또한 국내에서도 최근 경주와 포항지역에서 지진이 발생하여 피해가 발생함에 따라 재난의 불확실성에 대한 대비의 중요성이 강조되고 있고, 과거 안전하다고 했던 재난에 대한 위험성에 대해 국민들의 관심이 증대되었다. 피해사례가 2차례 있는 지진해일의 경우도 동일본 대지진 이후로 전 세계적으로 해일에 대한 위험성이 재평가되고 있다. 지진해일은 해저에서 발생하는 지진에 의한 것으로 발생지점 및 강도 등을 예측하기가 쉽지 않으므로, 지진발생에 대한 가상 시나리오를 이용한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 가상 시나리오를 활용하여 현재까지 많은 침수예상도가 제작되었으나, 다양한 시나리오 대해서 검토되지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 과학적 보간법을 이용하여 수치모형을 수행하지 않고 기수행된 연구 DB를 활용하여 지진해일 피해를 예측하는 기술을 개발하였다. 연구 DB는 국립재난안전연구원에서 수행된 지진해일 자료를 활용하였고, 전국단위를 기반으로 지진규모 7.0~9.0 내에 지진해일을 유발하는 지진에 대해 지진해일의 피해를 예측할 수 있는 기술을 개발하였다. 기술을 검증하기 위해 5개의 진원지에 대하여 과거 발생 지진규모부터 극한의 지진규모를 가정한 수치모의 결과와 본 연구의 결과를 비교하였다. 본 연구는 격자 1km인 광역모형의 모의결과를 활용하였으므로 실제로 해안지역의 침수양상의 정확도가 높지 않지만 향후 고정밀 공간해상도에 대하여 모의를 수행한다면 지진해일로 발생하는 범람 및 침수를 보다 정밀하게 예측할 수 있을 것이라 기대된다.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.165-175
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• 2022

Earthquakes have occurred owing to movements on a fault since several billion years ago. Research on the relationship between earthquakes and groundwater began in the 1960s in the United States, but related works, including hydrogeochemistry research, only began in the 2010s in South Korea. In this study, domestic studies on the relationship between earthquakes and groundwater until 2021 were collected from the Web of Science and characterized by subject area (groundwater level, hydrogeochemistry, combination of the two, and others). The results showed that the number of published articles per year was positively correlated with the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, 2016 Gyeongju earthquake, and 2017 Pohang earthquake, with the maximum numbers observed in 2011, 2018, 2019, and 2020. Most studies on the relationship between earthquakes and groundwater level addressed groundwater level fluctuations in the duration of the subject earthquake, with little consideration of the precursors. Groundwater level monitoring data, as well as hydrogeochemical information and microbial communities, may contribute to a more detailed understanding of groundwater flow and chemical reactions in bedrock caused by earthquakes. Therefore, the establishment of a national groundwater monitoring network for seismic monitoring and prediction is required.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.99-105
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• 2000

한반도 동남부 지역에서 발생하고 관찰된 약진 또는 중진의 자료를 이영하여 이 지역의 Q값과 지진원의 특성인 모서리 주파수 (fc), 응력강하량(Δ$\delta$) 및 모멘크규모 (Mw)를 산정하였다. 가속도 스펙트럼의 경사와 관련된 x의 통계학적 분포로부터 추정한 Q의 95% 신뢰범위는 1656~2454 이다. 1998년 1월 18일 울산 앞바다 지진과 1997년 6월 26일 경주지진의 지진원 요소를 구한 결과 fc 는 각각 4.22Hz , 2.94Hz, Δ$\delta$는 각각 106.8 bar, 106.2 bar, Mw는 각각 3.9, 4.0으로 추정되었다. 제한된 자료수로 인하여 이들의 통계학적 성질을 충분히 규명하지는 못하였지만 다른 연구자들의 기존결과와 유사한 값을 보인다. 본 연구의 결과는 강진동 모사에 직접 이용이 가능하며, 이 지역에 위치한 원자력 발전소 내진 안전성 검토에도 이용될 수 있다.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.6_4
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• pp.1531-1544
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• 2018

We detected the coseismic ionospheric disturbance generated by the earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and greater in Korean Peninsula. We considered the seismic events such as Gyeongju earthquake in September 2016 with magnitude 5.8, the Pohang earthquake in November 2017 with magnitude 5.4, and the underground nuclear explosion from North Korea in September 2017 with magnitude 5.7. Although all GPS stations were not detected, the ionospheric disturbance induced by these earthquakes occurred approximately 10-30 minutes and 40-60 minutes after the events. We inferred that the time difference within each variation is due to the different focal depth and the geometry of epicenter, satellite, and GPS station. In the case of the Gyeongju earthquake, the earthquake had relatively deeper depth than the other earthquakes. However, the seismic magnitude was bigger and it occurred at nighttime when the ionospheric activity was stable. So we could observe such anomalous variations. It is considered that the ionospheric disturbance caused by the difference in velocity of the upward propagating waves generated by earthquake appears more than once. Our results indicate that the detection of ionospheric disturbances varies depending on the geometry of the GPS station, satellite, and epicenter or the detection method and that the apparent growth of amplitude in the time series varies depending on the focal depth or the site-satellite-epicenter geometry.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.759-774
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• 2017

Earthquake concerns have grown after a remarkable earthquake incident on September 12th, 2016 in Gyeongju, Korea. Earthquake forecasting is gaining in importance in order to guarantee infrastructure safety and develop protection policies. In this paper, we adopt a power-law distribution model to fit past earthquake occurrences in Korea with various historical and modern seismological records. We estimated power-law distribution parameters using empirical distributions and calculated the future probabilities for large earthquake events based on our model. We provide the probability that a future event has a larger magnitude than given levels, and the probability that a future event over certain levels will occur in a given period of time. This model contributes to the assessment of latent seismological risk in Korea by estimating future earthquake probabilities.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2018

The radon concentration in soil varies with environmental factors such as atmospheric temperature and pressure, rainfall and soil temperature. The effects of these factors, therefore, should be differentiate in order to analyzed the anomalous radon variation caused by earthquake events. For these reasons, a comparative analysis between the radon variations with environmental factors and the anomalous variations caused by Gyeong-ju earthquake occurred in September 12, 2016 has been conducted. Radon concentration in soil and environmental factors were continuously measured at a monitoring ste located in 58Km away from earthquake epicenter from January 01, 2014 to May 31, 2017. The co-relationships between radon concentration and environmental factors were analyzed. The seasonal average radon concentration(n) and the standard variation(${\rho}$) was calculated, and the regions of ${\pm}1{\rho}$ and ${\pm}2{\rho}$ deviations from seasonal average concentration were investigated to find the anomalous radon variation related to Gyeong-ju earthquake. Earthquake effectiveness and q-factor were also calculated. The radon concentration indicated the seasonal variation pattern, showing high in summer and low in winter. It increases with increasing air temperature and soil temperature, and has the positive co-relationships of $R^2=0.9136$ and $R^2=0.8496$, respectively. The radon concentration decreases with increasing atmospheric pressure, and has the negative co-relationships of $R^2=0.7825$. Four regions of ${\pm}2{\rho}$ deviation from average seasonal concentration (A1: 7/3~7/5, A2: 7/18, A3: 8/4~8/5, A4: 10/17~10/20) were detected before and after Gyeong-ju earthquake. A1, A2, A3 were determined as the anomalous radon variation caused by the earthquake from co-relationship analyses with environmental factors, earthquake effectiveness and q-factor. During the period of anomalous radon variation, correlation coefficients between radon concentration and environmental factors were significantly lowered compared to other periods such as air temperature ($R^2=0.2314$), soil temperature ($R^2=0.1138$) and atmospheric pressure ($R^2=0.0475$). Annual average radon concentration was also highest at 2016, the year of Gyeong-ju earthquake.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.41-48
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• 2024

In 2017, the Ministry of the Interior and Safety conducted research for the revision of seismic design standards and performed studies on standard design response spectra. As a result, the Common Application Guidelines for Seismic Design Standards were introduced, and these guidelines have been implemented in the national design standards of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport for practical use. However, it should be noted that the research for proposing standard design response spectra during the 2017 revision was conducted before the occurrence of the significant seismic events in South Korea, such as the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake and the 2017 Pohang Earthquake. To account for these recent major earthquakes, this study adjusted the standard design spectra based on the records of the 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake and the 2017 Pohang Earthquake and conducted ground response analyses accordingly. The results revealed variations in peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the ground surface even within the same ground classification. It was confirmed that this variation can lead to overestimation or underestimation of seismic loads.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.43-50
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• 2018

This study presented 3D Finite Element (FE) analysis of curved beam structures subjected to static and dynamic loading conditions, which is particularly strong ground motions. It was shown that the results obtained from 3D FE analyses was similar to the theoretical solution within 1% convergency error, in order to validate the 3D solid FE models in this study. In particular, it was focusing on development of dynamic characteristics of curved beam structures subjected to three-different seismic ground motions: GyeongJu, Lomaprieta and Northridge earthquakes. Consequently, It was interesting to find that the results obtained from GyeongJu earthquake was detuned due to high frequency effect, but the Von-Mises of the curved beam structure under Lomaprieta earthquake was 647.824 MPa at 45 curvature degree.