• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경로예측모델

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The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

Rapid canine retraction in a Class II bialveolar protrusion case using a lingually extended distraction screw (제II급 치조 전돌 환자에서 설측 견인 장치를 이용한 급속 견치 견인술)

  • Ahn, Kwang-Seok;Joo, Euk;Park, Ju-Young;Ryu, Young-Kyu;Cha, In-Ho;Lee, Kee-Joon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.308-320
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    • 2006
  • Rapid canine retraction, first introduced by Liou, is a distraction osteogenesis applied to the periodontal ligament tissue. Rapid tooth movement was facilitated by establishing minimal bony resistance on the distal surface of the canine by socket preparation and by osteogenesis on the mesial side in response to the periodontal distraction. Since undesired buccal tipping or extrusion of the canine during retraction tends to occur, it is crucial to maintain the firm path of movement and the axis of the canine during retraction. In order to improve the predictability of the canine movement, lingually extended distraction screws with heavy labial guiding wires were designed. Prefabricated plastic canine models for the estimation of socket depth and miniscrew implants for anchorage reinforcement were also devised. Applying these devices to a female patient with Class II anterior protrusion, the whole treatment was effectively finished in 13 months. Loss of vitality or periodontal problems did not occur throughout treatment, and stable occlusion was maintained during 10 months of retention. This case report demonstrates that a predictable rapid canine retraction can be achieved through the use of this modified technique.

Dispersal of Hazardous Substance in a City Environment Based on Weather Conditions and Its Risk Assessment at the Pedestrian Level (기상조건에 따른 도시내 위험물질 확산정보와 보행자환경 위험영향평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Ryoung;Lee, Gwang-Jin;Yi, Chaeyeon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.242-256
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, dispersion scenarios concerning various meteorological conditions and real urban structures were made to estimate the impacts of hazardous substance leakage accidents and to reduce damages. Based on the scenario of the hazardous substance dispersion, the characteristics of the risk in the pedestrian environment were analyzed in Gangnam, Seoul. The scenarios are composed of 48 cases according to the meteorological conditions of wind direction and wind speed. In order to analyze the dispersion characteristics of the hazardous substances, simulations were conducted using a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model with hydrogen fluoride releases. The validation for the simulated wind was conducted at a specific period, and all the calculated verification indices were within the valid range. As a result of simulated dispersion field at pedestrian level, it was found that the dispersion pattern was influenced by the flow, which was affected by the artificial obstacles. Also, in the case of the weakest wind speed of the inflow, the dispersion of the hazardous substance appeared in the direction of the windward side at the pedestrian level due to the reverse flow occurred at lower layers. Through this study, it can be seen that the artificial structures forming the city have a major impact on the flow formed in urban areas. The proposed approach can be used to simulate the dispersion of the hazardous substances and to assess the risk to pedestrians in the industrial complexes dealing with actual hazardous substances in the future.

Optimization of LC-MS/MS for the Analysis of Sulfamethoxazole by using Response Surface Analysis (반응표면분석법을 이용한 설파메톡사졸의 액체크로마토그래프-텐덤형 질량분석 최적화)

  • Bae, Hyo-Kwan;Jung, Jin-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.9
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    • pp.825-830
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    • 2009
  • Pharmaceutical compounds enter the water environment through the diverse pathways. Because their concentration in the water environment was frequently detected in the level of ppt to ppb, the monitoring system should be optimized as much as possible for finding appropriate management policies and technical solutions. One Factor At a Time (OFAT) approach approximating the response with a single variable has been preferred for the optimization of LC-MS/MS operational conditions. However, it is common that variables in analytical instruments are interdependent. Therefore, the best condition could be found by using the statistical optimization method changing multiple variables at a time. In this research, response surface analysis (RSA) was applied to the LC-MS/MS analysis of emerging antibiotic compound, sulfamethoxazole, for the best sensitivity. In the screening test, fragmentation energy and collision voltage were selected as independent variables. They were changed simultaneously for the statistical optimization and a polynomial equation was fit to the data set. The correlation coefficient, $R^2$ valuerepresented 0.9947 and the error between the predicted and observed value showed only 3.41% at the random condition, fragmentation energy of 60 and collision voltage of 17 eV. Therefore, it was concluded that the model derived by RSA successfully predict the response. The optimal conditions identified by the model were fragmentation energy of 116.6 and collision voltage of 10.9 eV. This RSA can be extensively utilized for optimizing conditions of solid-phase extraction and liquid chromatography.

Design of Trajectory Following Controller for Parafoil Airdrop System (패러포일 투하 시스템의 궤적 추종 제어기의 설계)

  • Yang, Bin;Choi, Sun-Young;Lee, Joung-Tae;Lim, Dong-Keun;Hwang, Chung-Won;Park, Seung-Yub
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, parafoil airdrop system has been designed and analyzed. 6-degrees of freedom (6-DOF) model of the parafoil system is set up. Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) and Proportion integration differentiation (PID) methods were separately applied to adjust the flap yaw angle. Compared the results of setting time and overshoot time of yaw angle, it is found that the of yaw angle is more stable by using PID method. Then, trajectory following controller was designed based on the simulation results of trajectory following effects, which was carried out by using MATLAB. The lateral offset error of parafoil trajectory can be eliminated by its lateral deviation control. The later offset deviation reference was obtained by the interpolation of the current planning path. Moreover, using the designed trajectory, the trajectory following system was simulated by adding the wind disturbances. It is found that the simulation result is highly agreed with the designed trajectory, which means that wind disturbances have been eliminated with the change of yaw angle controlled by PID method.

Social-Cognitive Model of Social Justice Interest and Commitment: for Korean College Students (사회 인지 관점에 따른 사회 정의 관심과 실천 모형의 검증: 국내 대학생을 중심으로)

  • Moon-Kyung Min;Hyun-nie Ahn
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.133-154
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate psychological processes based on the Korean college students' development of social justice interest and commitment. For this study, we replicated Miller and colleagues'(2009) study, which explained the development of social justice interest and commitment by social-cognitive career theory(SCCT). Social desirability was controlled, and then self-reports data from 343 college students were analyzed using Structural Estimate Modeling(SEM). As a result, the final research model that social justice self-efficacy and outcome expectations affect social justice interest and commitment was proven valid for Korean college students. Also, in comparison with the direct effects model(social supports and barriers affect directly on commitment), the indirect effects model(social supports and barriers affect indirectly on commitment through self-efficacy) was supported. As an unique path of social-justice domain, the indirect effect by social support on commitment through outcome expectation was proved, as well. This study covers measurement limitations, future directions for research, and some lessons points with regards to how Korean college students to have social justice interest and commitment.

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Human Health Risk, Environmental and Economic Assessment Based on Multimedia Fugacity Model for Determination of Best Available Technology (BAT) for VOC Reduction in Industrial Complex (산업단지 VOC 저감 최적가용기법(BAT) 선정을 위한 다매체 거동모델 기반 인체위해성·환경성·경제성 평가)

  • Kim, Yelin;Rhee, Gahee;Heo, Sungku;Nam, Kijeon;Li, Qian;Yoo, ChangKyoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.325-345
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    • 2020
  • Determination of Best available technology (BAT) was suggested to reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a petrochemical industrial complex, by conducting human health risk, environmental, and economic assessment based on multimedia fugacity model. Fate and distribution of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) was predicted by the multimedia fugacity model, which represent VOCs emitted from the industrial complex in U-city. Media-integrated human health risk assessment and sensitivity analysis were conducted to predict the human health risk of BTEX and identify the critical variable which has adverse effects on human health. Besides, the environmental and economic assessment was conducted to determine the BAT for VOCs reduction. It is concluded that BTEX highly remained in soil media (60%, 61%, 64% and 63%), and xylene has remained as the highest proportion of BTEX in each environment media. From the candidates of BAT, the absorption was excluded due to its high human health risk. Moreover, it is identified that the half-life and exposure coefficient of each exposure route are highly correlated with human health risk by sensitivity analysis. In last, considering environmental and economic assessment, the regenerative thermal oxidation, the regenerative catalytic oxidation, the bio-filtration, the UV oxidation, and the activated carbon adsorption were determined as BAT for reducing VOCs in the petrochemical industrial complex. The suggested BAT determination methodology based on the media-integrated approach can contribute to the application of BAT into the workplace to efficiently manage the discharge facilities and operate an integrated environmental management system.

An Analysis of Linkage of Scientific and Technological Knowledge to Industry (과학기술 지식흐름의 산업연계 파급경로 분석)

  • Park, Hyun-Woo;Lee, Chang-Hoan;Yeo, Woon-Dong
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.91-117
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    • 2008
  • The relationships between science, technology, and industry are very complicated and vary according to time. Thus, it would be almost impossible to combine the three categories in a single model. However, the linking of science, technology, and industry, which are divided according to their respective classification standards, is a starting point from which to understand how science and technology, technology and industry, and further science, technology, and industry are related to each other. Studies have been carried out to analyze the relationship between science and technology and between technology and industry, whereas no study has been undertaken to get an overall view of science, technology, and industry. Since an appropriate methodology or an analytical model has not been suggested, this paper proposes a model for generally analyzing science, technology, and industry. More specifically, this paper examines the methodology for linking science, technology, and industry. This paper uses citation analysis to analyze knowledge flow such as absorption and utilization of given knowledge, looks at the provision of knowledge to create new knowledge, and examines the use of network analysis to analyze the complicated phenomenon of knowledge flow. This paper proposes an empirical study of trend analysis of technological innovation by looking into a linkage structure of knowledge flow among science, technology, and industry based on the classification linkage and analysis methodology using scientific paper and patents.

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Estimation of source signal and channel response using ray-based blind deconvolution technique for Doppler-shifted underwater channel (음선 기반 블라인드 디컨볼루션 기법을 이용한 수중 도플러 편이 채널에서의 송신 신호 및 채널 응답 추정)

  • Byun, Gi Hoon;Oh, Se Hyun;Byun, Sung-Hoon;Kim, J.S.
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.331-339
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    • 2016
  • This paper suggests an estimation method of the source signal and the channel impulse response (CIR) using ray-based blind deconvolution (RBD) in the underwater acoustic channel environment where Doppler effect exists by the relative motion between source and receiver. It is difficult to estimate the CIR on Doppler effect by the matched filter with a highly Doppler-sensitive waveform such as the m-sequence signal because Doppler shift can severely degrade the correlation between the received signal corrupted by Doppler effect and the original source signal. In this study, the Doppler-shifted source-signal's phase is estimated using the RBD, and the received signal is compensated by it to obtain the Doppler-corrected CIR. It is verified that using the matched filter with the received signal from the experimental data fails to estimate the CIR while the obtained CIR by the suggested method has the similarity to the propagation path of the ray model. Also, the results show that the reconstructed source signal using the RBD has the better Doppler shift compensation than the Doppler-shifted source signal derived from scattering function.

Kinetics Study for Wet Air Oxidation of Sewage Sludge (하수슬러지의 습식산화반응에 대한 동력학적 연구)

  • Ahn, Jae-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.746-752
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    • 2005
  • In this study, the effect of reaction parameters including reaction temperature, time, and pressure on sludge degradation and conversion to intermediates such as organic acids were investigated at low critical wet air oxidation(LC-WAO) conditions. Degradation pathways and a modified kinetic model in LC-WAO were proposed and the kinetics model predictions were compared with experimental data under various conditions. Results in the batch experiments showed that reaction temperature directly affected the thermal hydrolysis reaction rather than oxidation reaction. The efficiencies of sludge degradation and organic acid formation increased with the increase of the reaction temperature and time. The removal of SS at $180^{\circ}C$, $200^{\circ}C$, $220^{\circ}C$ and $240^{\circ}C$ of reaction temperatures and 10 min of reaction time were 52.6%, 68.3%, 72.6%, and 74.4%, respectively, indicating that most organic suspended solids were liquified at early stage of reaction. At $180^{\circ}C$, $200^{\circ}C$, $220^{\circ}C$ and $240^{\circ}C$ of reaction temperatures and 40 min of reaction time, the amounts of organic acids formed from 1 g of sludge were 93.5 mg/g SS, 116.4 mg/g SS, 113.6 mg/g SS, and 123.8 mg/g SS, respectively, and the amounts of acetic acid from 1 g of sludge were 24.5 mg/g SS, 65.5 mg/g SS, 88.1 mg/g SS, and 121.5 mg/g SS, respectively. This suggested that the formation of sludge to organic acids as well as the conversion of organic acids to acetic acid increased with reaction temperature. Based on the experimental results, a modified kinetic model was suggested for the liquefaction reaction of sludge and the formation of organic acids. The kinetic model predicted an increase in kinetic parameters $k_1$ (liquefaction of organic compounds), $k_2$ (formation of organic acids to intermediate), $k_3$ (final degradation of intermediate), and $k_4$ (final degradation of organic acids) with reaction temperature. This indicated that the liquefaction of organic solid materials and the formation of organic acids increase according to reaction temperature. The calculated activation energy for reaction kinetic constants were 20.7 kJ/mol, 12.3 kJ/mol, 28.4 kJ/mol, and 54.4 kJ/mol, respectively, leading to a conclusion that not thermal hydrolysis but oxidation reaction is the rate-limiting step.