• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경기순환

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Time-Series Prediction of Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Using an Application of Recurrent Neural Networks (Recurrent Neural Networks를 활용한 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 예측)

  • Han, Min-Soo;Yu, Song-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.50-53
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    • 2017
  • Not only growth of importance to understanding economic trends, but also the prediction to overcome the uncertainty is coming up for long-term maritime recession. This paper discussed about the prediction of BDI with artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN is one of emerging applications that can be the finest solution to the knotty problems that may not easy to achieve by humankind. Proposed a prediction by implementing neural networks that have recurrent architecture which are a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). And for the reason of comparison, trained Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) from 2009.04.01 to 2017.07.31. Also made a comparison with conventional statistics, prediction tools; ARIMA. As a result, recurrent net, especially RNN outperformed and also could discover the applicability of LSTM to specific time-series (BDI).

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Effect of Risk Factors on the Management of Working Capital in Hospital Management (병원경영의 위험요인이 운전자본 관리에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Au-Hyun
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed how risk factors in management affect the management of working capital in general hospitals in Korea. The data used accounting information for three years (2016~2017 and 2018) of 271 general hospitals using the medical institution accounting information disclosure system. The independent variables were the working capital level and the cash conversion cycle, The dependent variables were operational risk and market risk, Control variables were selected as components of working capital(cash, accounts receivable, inventory assets, accounts payable). According to the study, the lower the operational risk, the higher the level of working capital hospitals in Korea. Working capital decisions were confirmed to be attributable to operating risks, cash, inventory assets and accounts payable. And the lower the market risk (Operating Margin), the higher the cash conversion cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to review appropriate management measures of operational risks, cash, inventory assets and accounts payable identified as operating capital determinants so that medical institutions can also have economic response capabilities in consideration of the specificity of their operations.

A Study of Characteristics of Business Cycle in the Jeju Region (제주지역 경기변동의 특성 연구)

  • Kang, Min-Seo;Kang, Gi-Choon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.420-426
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the business cycle in the Jeju region and what differences exist in relation to the nation as a whole, to calculate the relative importance between the random walk stochastic trend and cyclical factor, and to find out its causes and implications. Results of empirical analysis found that the characteristics of the business cycle in the Jeju region were as follows: First, the Jeju region, which is likely to have a growth component of the economy such as technological development and the accumulation of capital, was projected to have a possibility of high growth due to a greater proportion of the stochastic trend factor(46.8%) than the entire country(27.8%). Secondly, employment fluctuation in Jeju, which varies from 0.007 to 0.058 depending on the model, was lowest compared to the fluctuation of other indicators. The employment market in Jeju remained firm, showing that it is not smooth enough to create new jobs despite the production growth in industry. Third, the tourism industry was acting as a stabilizing factor, whereas the mining and manufacturing production was the opposite of tourism industry. This implies that the mining and manufacturing production was based on a weak foundation.

The Effects of Task-Oriented Circuit Training on The Upper Extremity Function and Quality of Life in Chronic Stroke Patients (유비쿼터스 의료환경에서 순환식 과제 지향적 훈련이 뇌졸중 환자의 상지 기능과 삶의 질에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Gue-Dong;Kim, Young-Hun;Moon, Jong-Hoon;Park, Kyung-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.651-660
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of task-oriented circuit training(: TOCT) on upper extremity function and quality of life in chronic stroke patients. 20 stroke patients were randomized and divided into 2 groups: a preservation therapy group and TOCT group. The intervention sessions were given five times a week for four weeks. The Stroke Impact Scale(: SIS), EuroQual-5Domains(: EQ-5D), Fugl-Myer Assessment(: FMA), Motor Activity Log(: MAL), Canadian Occupational Performance Measure(: COPM) were used to measure the upper extremity function and the quality of life. In results, Two groups improved in upper extremity function after the intervention(p<.05). The EQ-5D scores of TOCT group were a significantly higher than preservation group(p<.05). The Ironing, Folding towels, Hang out towels on drying rack in COPM scores in both of performance and satisfaction have improved more than preservation group(p<.05). In conclusion, the TOCT has significant helpful effect to chronic stroke patients. These findings can be used to chronic stroke patient as an intervention for upper extremity function and quality of life.

Geochemical Study on the Genesis of Chuncheon Nephrite Deposit (춘천 연옥의 기원에 관한 지구화학적 연구)

  • 박계현;노진환
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2000
  • To reveal the origin of the Chuncheon nephrite deposit, radiogenic isotopes of Sr and Pb, stable isotopes of 0 and H, and rare earth elements concentrations were analyzed. Such geochemical data were integrated to track the stepwise changes during the various ore formation stages. All the samples from the nephrite deposit have significantly low 0 isotopic ratios compared with the marble from which they had been formed, which reflects the very important role of the crustal circulating water with low 6180 and 6D in every stage of ore formation. There were progressive decrease of 6180 and 6D during the genesis of Chuncheon nephrite deposit. Newly formed minerals during the ore formation reveal disequilibrium with existing minerals in the respect of 0 isotope, which suggests that the ore-forming fluid of circulating water origin was involved with significant water-rock ratios in every step of ore formation process. The ore samples have Sr and Pb isotopic ratios similar to the values of Kyeonggi gneiss complex within which the deposit is located, which also suggests the important role of crustal circulating water in the genesis of the deposit. In conclusion, all the geochemical data support that major portion of the ore-forming fluid of Chuncheon nephrite deposit was derived ultimately from the surface water of meteoric origin. The meteoric water supplied Sr and Pb through leaching the rocks surrounding the ore deposits.

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A Study on the Operation of the Seolma-Cheon Experimental Catchment (2004년 설마천 시험유역의 운영)

  • Kim, Dong-Phil;Jung, Sung-Won;Kim, Sung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.689-693
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구의 목적은 경기도 파주시 적성면 설마리에 위치한 설마천 시험유역을 대상으로 신뢰성 있는 수문자료를 지속적으로 수집하여 정화한 물 순환과정을 규명하는데 있다. 2004년 설마천 시험유역의 수문관측은 2003년보다 더욱 향상된 결과를 보였으며, 관측기기의 추가 설치, 실시간 전송장비의 보완 및 운영, 각 관측소당 2종 이상의 동시 관측자료 확보 등을 통해 자료의 결측을 최소화하였고 정화도를 개선하여 양질의 자료를 생성할 수 있었다. 관측된 우량과 수위 자료에 대해 일상적인 자료 검토 및 처리 과정을 보다 구체적으로 체계화하여 자료의 질적 향상을 꾀하였다. 특히 유량 측정 및 산정 방법을 국제 기준에 준하여 수행하고, 현장에서 실시간으로 관측자료의 분석 및 검증이 가능한 유량측정용 PDA 시스템을 활용함으로써 보다 정도높은 유량측정성과를 확보할 수 있었다.

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성인병 뉴스 제311호

  • The Korea Association of Chronic Disease
    • The Korean Chronic Disease News
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    • no.311
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2006
  • 경기도 평택시 송탄 보건소 김보섭 소장/만성질환 관리 중추적 단체 위상제고/“앞으로 국민연금 덜 받는다”/건강보험료 환급 사기‘주의’/전공의 보조수당 민간병원 확대/65세이상 60%에 월8만9천원 지급/“의료용 혈액이 부족하다”/남‘암’-여‘순환기’사망확률 높아/수면무호흡증, 남성 발기부전초래/독감백신 국내 생산기반 구축/정부 의약품 가격 정책‘위헌소송’/차별화 된 고품격 보건서비스 제공/보건소 의료기관 서비스 만족도‘1위’/초고령사회 대응, 본격 시동 걸었다/노인의료“의료적 접근 동반돼야”/겨울철 어르신 건강관리 수칙 발표/비영리 의료기관 M&A 근거 마련/병원 서비스산업 주요 육성방안/고령친화 모델지역 기본구상/

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Empirical Research on Cyclical Patterns of R&D Investment (R&D 투자의 경기순환적 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, U-Seong
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2008
  • The researches on cyclical patterns of R&D investment has a long history in developed economies since the Schumpeterian hypothesis that long-term productivity-enhancing innovative activities increase during recession. But in Korea the cyclical patterns of R&D investment is one of the unexplored academic areas. Unlike theoretical explanation of R&D's cyclical pattern, empirical results has shown that R&D investment is procyclical to business cycles in developed countries. This paper investigates whether Korean R&D investment show procyclical or countercyclical pattern to business cycles. The empirical results show that Korean R&D investment in private area is procyclical to business cycles with statistical significance, which confirms the credit-constraint theory's prediction, while public area's is not sensitive to them. Public R&D investment has long-term investment characteristics and can be utilized to stabilize procyclically-fluctuating private R&D investment.

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A Study on the Operation of the Selma-Cheon Experimental Catchment (2003년 설마천 시험유역의 운영)

  • Kim, Dong Phil;Hwang, Seok Hwan;Jung, Sung Won;Han, Myoung Sun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.573-577
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    • 2004
  • 본 인구의 목적은 경기도 파주시 적성면 설마리에 위치한 설마천 시험유역을 내상으로 신뢰성 있는 수문 자료를 지속적으로 수집하여 정확한 수문순환과정을 파악하는데 있다. 2003년 설마천 시험유역의 수문관측은 예년보다 더욱 향상된 결과를 보였다. 노후화된 관측기기의 교체 및 추가 설치, 실시간 전송장비의 보완 및 운영, 각 관측소당 2벌 이상의 동시 관측자료 확보 등을 통해 자료의 결측을 최소화하였고 정확도를 개선하여 예년보다 양질의 자료를 생성할 수 있었다. 관측된 우량과 수위 자료에 내해 일상적인 자료 검토 및 처리 과정을 보다 구체적으로 체계화하여 자료의 질이 향상될 수 있도록 하였다. 특히 유량 측정 및 산정 방법을 국제 기준에 준하여 수행하고, 현장에서 실시간으로 계측자료의 분석 및 검증이 가능한 유량측정용 PDA 시스템을 개발함으로써 예년에 비해 보다 정도 높은 유량측정성과를 확보한 수 있었다.

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Asset Prices and Consumption Dynamics in Korea (자산가격변동과 민간소비의 동태적 반응)

  • Kim, Young Il
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.35-73
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines consumption dynamics in relation to asset prices in Korea. Empirical analysis based on the error correction model shows that personal consumption is affected by changes in asset prices but the consumption converges to the long-run level of consumption corresponding to the total income flow in two years. This adjustment in consumption implies that the consumption error, reflected in the error correction term, should have predictability for the future consumption growth during the adjustment period. It is found that the error correction term has a long-run predictability for consumption over up to about 3 years; thus, confirming the error correction model. It is also found that housing prices have larger effects on consumption compared with stock prices in Korea. In addition, the effects of income and asset prices on consumption show bigger effects during contractionary period than expansionary period in business cycles. This paper also analyzes effects of asset wealth that reflects changes in both price and quantity. It is found that asset wealth has a long-run effect on consumption in addition to total income as determinants of consumption. Since wealth effects usually indicate the long-run effect of changes in asset wealth on consumption that is not explained by labor income, which is the proxy for human source of wealth, it is estimated with labor income used as a control variable. According to the estimation, the marginal propencity to consume out of asset wealth is approximately 2%. It means that 1,000won increase in asset wealth may lead to 20 won increase in consumption.

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