• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.23-29
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• 2004

The design earthquake used for the seismic analysis and design of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is determined by the deterministic or probabilistic methods. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) for the nuclear power plant sites was performed for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nuclear power plant site had been completed as a part of the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic method become a resonable method to determine the design earthquakes for NPPs. In this study, the defining method of the probability based scenario earthquake was established, and as a sample calculation, the probability based scenario earthquakes were estimated by the de-aggregation of the probabilistic seismic hazard. By using this method, it is possible to define the probability based scenario earthquakes for the seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of structures. It is necessary to develop the rational seismic source map and the attenuation equations for the development of reasonable scenario earthquakes.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.259-268
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• 2016

The service life evaluation in RC(Reinforced Concrete) structure exposed to chloride attack can be classified into deterministic and probabilistic method, and it significantly varies with design parameters. The present work derives PDF (Probability of Durability Failure) and the related service life considering time-dependent diffusion coefficient and internal parameters such as reference diffusion coefficient, critical chloride content, and time-exponent. When critical chloride content increases to 133.3%, the changing ratios of service life are 134.0~145.4% for deterministic method and 149.2%~152.5% for probabilistic method, respectively. In the case of increasing time-exponent to 200%, they increase to 323.8% for deterministic method and 346.0% for probabilistic method. Through adopting time-diffusion coefficient for probabilistic method, reasonable service life evaluation can be achieved, and it is also verified that increasing time-exponent through mineral admixture is very effective to extension of service life in RC structure.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.138-146
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• 2007

Geotechnical performance at the soft ground is strongly dependent on the properties of the soil beneath and adjacent to the structure of interest. These soil properties can be described using deterministic and/or probabilistic models. Deterministic models typically use a single discrete descriptor for the parameter of interest. Probabilistic models describe parameters by using discrete statistical descriptors or probability distribution density functions. The consolidation process depends on several uncertain parameters including the coefficients of consolidation and coefficients of permeability in vertical and horizontal directions. The implication of this uncertain parameter in the design of prefabricated vertical drains for soil improvement is discussed. A sensitivity analysis of the degree of consolidation and calculation of settlements to these uncertain parameters is presented for clayey deposits.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.125-132
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• 2007

The oedometer, radial CRS and Rowe cell tests, composite discharge capacity tests and smear effect tests are carried out to estimate the parameters for the reliability-based design of vertical drain method. Also the sensitivity analysis, the probabilistic and deterministic solutions of radial consolidation theory are presented. The result of probabilistic analysis was compared to that of deterministic analysis using the tested and estimated parameters. The results indicated that the drain spacing in the deterministic method is larger than that in the probabilistic method because the former does not consider the uncertainties in the geotechnical property. The divergence of two methods is dependent on the probability of achieving target degree of consolidation by a given time and the coefficient of variation (COV) of the coefficient of horizontal consolidation ($c_h$).

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.225-241
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• 2012

This paper examines the evolution of the systems of innovation approach and its main issues. At first, national systems of innovation have appeared on the purpose to substitute the neoclassical macroeconomic policies. But various criticisms have been raised because of the restriction within national boundary of analysis, the lack of dynamic analysis, the danger of institutional determination, the deficiency of theoretical accuracy in national systems of innovation. Technological systems, regional systems of innovation, sectoral systems of innovation have been developed to overcome criticisms about national systems of innovation. Nevertheless the unsettled questions in the systems of innovation approach remain. The academic and policy-making usefulness of the systems of innovation approach will be expanded by development of the complementary researches within approach.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.605-613
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• 2007

In order to overcome the difficulties of quantitative risk analysis such as complexity of model, we propose a systematic methodology for risk quantification of railway system which consists of 6 steps: The identification of risk factors, the determination of major scenarios for each risk factor by using event tree, the development of supplementary fault trees for evaluating branch probabilities, the evaluation of event probabilities, the quantification of risk, and the analysis in consideration of accident situation. In this study, in order to address the feasibility of the propose methodology, this framework is applied to the prototype risk model of nation-wide railway level crossings. And the quantification result based on the data of 2005 in Korea will also be presented.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.171-174
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• 2002

지구적 차원의 물부족 현상은 우리에게도 심각한 사회적 문제로 대두되고 있으며, 이에 대처하기 위한 방안의 하나로 지표수-지하수 연계이용이 거론되고 있다. 지표수와 지하수 연계이용은 유역의 지표 및 지하수자원을 수문학적 순환 사이클의 통합적 관점에서 파악하는 것으로부터 시작한다. 본 연구는 국내에서 지금까지 이렇다 할 사례가 없는 지표수-지하수 연계이용의 첫 단계로서 연계이용 가능지역을 선정하기 위한 체계적인 적지분석 방법론에 관한 것이다. 복잡한 의사결정 문제를 계층적으로 나누어 분석하는 기법(AHP)이 채택되었고, 분석에 필요한 의사결정인자가 도출되었다. 각 인자의 상대적 중요도가 정량화 된 후, 이를 바탕으로 특정 지역의 지표수-지하수 연계이용 적합도가 산정될 수 있다. 개발된 방법론을 국내 두 개 지역에 적용하여 그 적용성을 예시하였다 개발된 방법론에 의한 적합도 분석은 중앙정부나 지자체가 특정 지역의 연계이용 사업의 추진과 관련된 의사결정을 내릴 수 있도록 판단근거를 제공할 것이며, 지역 간 연계이용 우선순위를 평가하는데도 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of the KSME
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.46-51
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• 2014

최근 각종 공학문제의 해결을 위해 결정론적(Deterministic) 관점보다는 각종 불확실성을 고려한 확률적 (Probabilistic) 또는 추계적(Stochastic) 관점에서 분석 평가하려는 노력이 증가하고 있다. 이는 신뢰성분석 및 설계 측면에서 특히 중요하게 인식되고 있으며, 이를 구현하는 방법론으로 베이지안 통계기법(Bayesian Statistics)이 최근 많은 주목을 받고 있다. 이 글에서는 이러한 기법을 신뢰성 평가 및 고장예지에 어떻게 적용하고 있는지 사례를 중심으로 설명하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2000.03b
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• pp.365-372
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• 2000

현장상황에 대한 불충분한 자료와 파괴 메커니즘에 대한 불완전한 이해로 인해 발생하는 가변성(variability)과 불확실성(uncertainty)은 암반사면공학뿐만 아니라 지반공학에서 흔히 접하게 되는 문제점이다. 특히 암반사면공학에서는 이러한 가변성과 불확실성이 불연속면의 방향 및 기하학적 특성, 그리고 실내실험 결과의 분산으로 나타난다. 그러나 안전율(factor of safety)의 개념을 기초로 하는 전통적인 결정론적 해석방법(deterministic analysis)은 이러한 분산을 고려하지 않은 채 단일 대표 값만을 이용하여 구조물의 안정성을 판단하여 왔다. 확률론적 해석방법(probabilistic analysis)은 이러한 가변성과 불확실성을 효과적으로 정량화하여 해석에 이용할 수 있는 방법 중의 하나로 제안되었다. 이러한 해석방법은 불연속면의 기하학적 특성과 강도 특성을 확률변수(random variable)로 취급하여 신뢰성이론(reliability theory)과 확률이론(probability theory)을 근거로 분석하였으며 이를 기초로 하여 Monte Carlo Simulation과 같은 해석법을 이용, 구조물의 붕괴가능성을 확률로 표현하였다. 확률론적 해석 방법은 기존의 안전율을 대체하여 구조물의 안정성을 붕괴확률(probability of failure)로 제안하였으며 이 붕괴확률은 안전율의 확률분포함수 (probability density function)에서 안전율이 1보다 작을 가능성을 확률로 나타낸 수치이다. 본 논문에서는 확률론적 해석방법을 이용하여 불연속면 특성들의 확률특성을 고찰하였으며 이를 기초로 하여 암반사면의 안정성 해석에 응용했다.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.111-115
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• 2009

In Korea, the probabilistically developed seismic hazard maps are used with deterministically derived seismic site coefficients in developing the design response spectrum of a specific site. Even though the seismic hazard maps and seismic site coefficients are incompatible, the current design code ignores such incompatibility. If the seismic hazard map and seismic coefficients are both developed in identical probabilistic framework, such problems can be solved. Unfortunately, the available method cannot be use to derive "true" probabilistic site coefficients. This study uses the ground motion time histories, which were developed as the result of a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the companion paper, as input motions in performing one-dimensional equivalent linear site response analyses, from which the uniform hazard response spectra are generated. Another important characteristic of the hazard response spectra are that the uncertainties and randomness of the ground properties are accounted for. The uniform hazard spectra are then used to derive probabilistic site coefficients. Comparison of probabilistic and deterministically site coefficients demonstrate that there is a distinct discrepancy between two coefficients.