• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결과값 예측기

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Future Inflow Simulation Considering Climate Change in Chungju Dam Basin (기후변화를 고려한 충주댐 유역의 미래 유입량 모의)

  • Park, Ji-Yeon;Shin, Ju-Young;Kim, Tae-Rim;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.125-125
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    • 2012
  • 최근 심화되고 있는 강우의 시간적 지역적 불균형이 기후변화와 높은 연관성이 있다는 연구결과가 발표되고 있다. 강우에 직접적인 영향을 받는 수자원분야에서는 강우의 변동성을 예측한 결과를 바탕으로 기후변화 영향에 대한 연구가 활발히 진행 하고 있다. 우리나라의 연중 강수량의 대부분이 홍수기에 집중되어 수자원의 총량의 27%만 사용하고 있다. 전체 수자원이용량 중 절반 이상을 댐을 통해 이용하고 있기 때문에 댐 운영방법에 지속적인 연구가 필요하다. 기후변화영향으로 댐 유입량에 대한 불확실성이 커지므로 장기적인 수자원을 관리를 위하여 효율적인 댐 운영을 하기 위한 해결책이 필요하다. 물리적 강우-유출 모형으로 기후변화 영향을 받는 장기간 모의를 하게 되면 입력 자료와 매개변수, 모형구조의 불확실성 갖게 된다. 그에 반해 데이터를 통해 모형의 매개변수 값을 추정하여, 향후의 의사결정에 활용할 수 있는 모형을 구축하는 추계학적 모형과 인공신경망모형은, 물리적인 강우-유출 모형과 비교하여 모의에 드는 시간이 적고 모형 불확실성 파악이 가능하며, 장기간 모의 시 불확실성을 줄이는 효율적인 대안이 될 수 있다. 일반적인 추계학적 모형은 과거의 유입량 자료만 사용하지만 본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오 강우량의 영향을 함께 고려한 Transfer Function Noise(TFN)모형을 통하여 장기간 모의를 하였다. 본 연구의 대상 댐으로는 한강유역 중 댐 상류유역면적이 제일 넓은 충주댐으로 선정하였다. 과거의 유입량과 강우량 자료를 사용하여 통계적 방법을 통하여 TFN모형을 구축하고, TFN과 같은 변수를 사용하여 인공신경망모형을 구축하였다. 5개의 시나리오별로 어떠한 차이를 갖는지를 비교하였고, TFN모형과 인공신경망에 따라서 어떠한 양상을 갖는지 비교하였다.

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Study on the Thermal Conductivity of Frozen Soil Considering Various Experimental Conditions (다양한 실험조건을 고려한 동결 사질토의 열전도도 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Won;Go, Gyu-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.39 no.9
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2023
  • In analyzing geotechnical structures, the analysis fields are becoming increasingly diversified. In particular, the need for predicting the thermal behavior of ground materials has become important in fields related to soil freezing. To ensure a reliable assessment of the freezing behavior of the ground, considering the variation in the effective thermal conductivity of soil specimens under various conditions is crucial. In this study, probe experiments were conducted by varying the porosity, initial degree of saturation, and read time settings of the meter. Next, the factors influencing the effective thermal conductivity of the frozen sandy soil were evaluated. The experimental results conducted under different porosity conditions showed a tendency for the effective thermal conductivity of frozen soil to increase as the specimen's porosity decreased. However, as the degree of saturation of the specimen increased, the effective thermal conductivity also increased. The sensitivity of the meter's read time setting to the measurement of effective thermal conductivity was observed. When the read time was set to 1 min, the measured values were in a range similar to that obtained in previous studies conducted in Korea with the same soil specimen.

Evaluation of Difference between Skin Motion and Tumor Motion for Respiration Gated Radiotherapy (호흡조절방사선치료를 위한 피부움직임과 종양움직임 차이 평가)

  • Kwon, Kyung-Tae;Lim, Sang-Wook;Park, Sung-Ho;Kwon, Soo-Il;Shin, Sung-Soo;Lee, Sang-Wook;Ahn, Seung-Do;Kim, Jong-Hoon;Choi, Eun-Kyung
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2008
  • Accounting for tumor motion in treatment planning and delivery is one of the most recent and significant challenges facing radiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation and clarified the relationship between the motion of an external marker using the Real-Time Position Management (RPM) System and an internal organ motion signal obtained fluoroscope. We enrolled 10 patients with locally advanced lung cancer and liver cancer, retrospectively. The external marker was a plastic box, which is part of the RPM used to track the patient's respiration. We investigated the quantitatively correlation between the motions of an external marker with RPM and internal motion with fluoroscope. The internal fiducial motion is predominant in the caraniocaudal direction, with a range of $1.3{\sim}3.5cm$ with fluoroscopic unit. The external fiducial motion is predominant in the caraniocaudal direction, with a range of $0.43{\sim}2.19cm$ with RPM gating. The two measurements ratio is from 1.31 to 5.56. When the regularization guided standard deviation is from 0.08 to 0.87, mean 0.204 cm, except only for patients #3 separated by a mean 0.13 cm, maximum of 0.23 cm. This result is a good correlation between internal tumor motion imaged by fluoroscopic unit and external marker motion with RPM during expiration within 0.23 cm. We have demonstrated that gating may be best performed but special attention should be paid to gating for patients whose fiducials do not move in synchrony, because targeting on the correct phase difference alone would not guarantee that the entire tumor volume is within the treatment field.

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The Results of Curative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Anal Carcinoma (항문암 환자에서 근치적 목적의 동시 항암화학 방사선치료의 결과)

  • Jeong, Jae-Uk;Yoon, Mee-Sun;Song, Ju-Young;Ahn, Sung-Ja;Chung, Woong-Ki;Nah, Byung-Sik;Nam, Taek-Keun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.205-210
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: To evaluate the predictive factors for treatment response and prognostic factors affecting survival outcomes after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma. Materials and Methods: Medical records of forty two patients with histologically confirmed analsquamous cell carcinoma, who had complete CCRT between 1993 and 2008, were reviewed retrospectively. Median age was 61.5 years (39~89 years), and median radiotherapy (RT) dose was 50.4 Gy (30.0~64.0 Gy). A total of 36 patients had equal to or less than T2 stage (85.7%). Fourteen patients (33.3%) showed regional nodal metastasis, 36 patients (85.7%) were treated with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) plus mitomycin, and the remaining patients were treated by 5-FU plus cisplatinum. Results: The median follow-up time was 62 months (2~202 months). The 5-year overall survival, loco regional relapse-free survival, disease-free survival, and colostomy-free survival rates were 86.0%, 71.7%, 71.7%, 78.2%, respectively. Regarding overall survival, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status and complete response were found to be significant prognostic factors on univariate analysis. For multivariate analysis, only the ECOG performance status was significant. No significant factor was found for locoregional relapse-free survival or disease-free survival and similarly for treatment response, no significant factor was determined on logistic regression analysis. There were 7 patients who had local or regional recurrences and one patient with distant metastasis. The only evaluable toxicity in all patients was radiation dermatitis of perianal skin (grade 3), which developed in 4 patients (9.5%) and grade 2 in 22 patients (52.4%). Conclusion: This study revealed that patients with a performance score of ECOG 0-1 survived significantly longer than those with a poorer score. Finally, there was no significant predicting factors tested for treatment response.

Development and Verifying of Calculation Method of Standard Rainfall on Warning and Evacuation for Forest Soil Sediment Disaster in Mountainous Area by Using Tank Model (Tank Model을 이용한 산지토사재해 경계피난 기준우량 산정법 개발 및 검토)

  • Lee, Chang-Woo;Youn, Ho Joong;Woo, Choong Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.3
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    • pp.272-278
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develope calculation method of standard rainfall, which was used for predicting the outbreaking time of disaster by using Tank model, on warning and evacuation for soil sediment disaster. We investigate adeption possibility of developed method through comparing storage function method with Tank model. We calculated storage amount rainfall by storage function method and Tank model with 36 hillslope failures which have record on outbreaking time of disaster. The result in case of Sedimentary (quarternary period) showed that the difference of outbreaking time was 1.6 hour in case of tank model, but 3.2 hour in case of storage function method. In addition, the deviation of the peak storage were 7% in case of tank model, but 63% in case of storage function method. Total evacuation period was analyzed by using observed 5 years (1993-1997) rainfall data as well as each standard rainfalls which were determinated by two methods. The result showed that evacuation time by storage function method was about twice as many as that by tank model. Therefore, we concluded that calculation by tank model for predicting the outbreaking time of disaster was more useful and accurate than storage function method.

Application Analysis of GIS Based Distributed Model Using Radar Rainfall (레이더강우를 이용한 GIS기반의 분포형모형 적용성 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Hyeog;Kang, Boo-Sik;Lee, Geun-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2008
  • According to recent frequent local flash flood due to climate change, the very short-term rainfall forecast using remotely sensed rainfall like radar is necessary to establish. This research is to evaluate the feasibility of GIS-based distributed model coupled with radar rainfall, which can express temporal and spatial distribution, for multipurpose dam operation during flood season. $Vflo^{TM}$ model was used as physically based distributed hydrologic model. The study area was Yongdam dam basin ($930\;km^2$) and the 3 storm events of local convective rainfall in August 2005, and the typhoon.Ewiniar.and.Bilis.collected from Jindo radar was adopted for runoff simulation. Distributed rainfall consistent with hydrologic model grid resolution was generated by using K-RainVieux, pre-processor program for radar rainfall. The local bias correction for original radar rainfall shows reasonable results of which the percent error from the gauge observation is less than 2% and the bias value is $0.886{\sim}0.908$. The parameters for the $Vflo^{TM}$ were estimated from basic GIS data such as DEM, land cover and soil map. As a result of the 3 events of multiple peak hydrographs, the bias of total accumulated runoff and peak flow is less than 20%, which can provide a reasonable base for building operational real-time short-term rainfall-runoff forecast system.

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QSAR on the Inhibition Acticity of Flavopiridol Analogues against Breast Cancer MCF-7 (Flavopiridol 유도체에 의한 유방암 MCF-7 세포의 저해 활성에 관한 구조와 활성과의 관계)

  • Soung, Min-Gyu;Joo, Sung-Mo;Song, Ah-Reum;Sung, Nack-Do
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2007
  • To search for a molecular design of a new breast cancerous inhibitory active compound, 2D-QSAR and HQSAR between the substituents of flavopiridol analogues as substrates and their breast cancerous inhibitory activities against MCF-7 cell were analyzed and discussed quantitatively. It was found that the dispersion with molecule and steric hindrance with substituents will have a tremendous impact on the inhibitory activities from the 2D-QSAR model (1). Also, MR constant is better than that of MS constant as animportant factor. The inhibitory activities from 2D-QSAR model (2) were dependent upon the optimum MR constant (MR = 126 $Cm^3/mol$). Optimized HQSAR model (V) exhibited the best predictability of the inhibitory activities based on the cross-validated $r^2_{cv}$($q^2$= 0.583) and non-cross-validated conventional coefficient ($r^2_{ncv}$= 0.982). From the contribution maps, the inhibitory activity by the imino group on $C_9$ atom was higher than that of the hydroxyl group of $C_8$ atom on the A ring in molecule. Therefore, we can confirm that the dispersion by substituents in molecule is the most important factor in inhibitory activities against MCF-7 cell.

Derivation of Asymptotic Formulas for the Signal-to-Noise Ratio of Mismatched Optimal Laplacian Quantizers (불일치된 최적 라플라스 양자기의 신호대잡음비 점근식의 유도)

  • Na, Sang-Sin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.5C
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    • pp.413-421
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    • 2008
  • The paper derives asymptotic formulas for the MSE distortion and the signal-to-noise ratio of a mismatched fixed-rate minimum MSE Laplacian quantizer. These closed-form formulas are expressed in terms of the number N of quantization points, the mean displacement $\mu$, and the ratio $\rho$ of the standard deviation of the source to that for which the quantizer is optimally designed. Numerical results show that the principal formula is accurate in that, for rate R=$log_2N{\geq}6$, it predicts signal-to-noise ratios within 1% of the true values for a wide range of $\mu$, and $\rho$. The new findings herein include the fact that, for heavy variance mismatch of ${\rho}>3/2$, the signal-to-noise ratio increases at the rate of $9/\rho$ dB/bit, which is slower than the usual 6 dB/bit, and the fact that an optimal uniform quantizer, though optimally designed, is slightly more than critically mismatched to the source. It is also found that signal-to-noise ratio loss due to $\mu$ is moderate. The derived formulas can be useful in quantization of speech or music signals, which are modeled well as Laplacian sources and have changing short-term variances.

Changes in Nutrient Composition and Fermentation Properties of Abalone Mul-Kimchi using Dried Pollack and Licorice Stock (북어국물과 감초국물을 사용한 전복물김치의 발효특성 및 영양성분의 변화)

  • Jang, Mi-Soon;Park, Hee-Yeon;Nam, Ki-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.613-620
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    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to investigate changes in nutrient composition and fermentation properties in abalone mul-kimchi using dried pollack stock (AMKP) and licorice stock (AMKL) during storage at $4^{\circ}C$ for 35 days. The levels of moisture (88.37-90.94%) and crude ash (2%) did not differ much between AMKP and AMKL during the 35 days of storage. But crude protein and crude lipid levels decreased gradually until 21 days of storage. AMKP and AMKL fermentation during 21 days led to a decrease in pH, increased acidity, and the highest Leuconostoc sp. count. AMKP and AMKL showed acidity of 0.50% at pH 4.30, when the kimchi samples were ripened properly. Glutamic acid showed the highest content in AMKP and AMKL, and hydroxypoline was the most abundant of all free amino acids. We have provided basic data for commodification research on abalone mul-kimchi.

The Correlation between Groundwater Level and GOI considering Snowmelt Effect and Critical Infiltration in Ssangchun Watershed (융설효과와 한계침투량을 고려한 쌍천유역의 지하수위와 GOI의 상관관계)

  • Yang, Jeong-Seok;Park, Jae-Hyeon;Choi, Yong-Sun;Park, Chang-Kun;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.194-199
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    • 2006
  • 쌍천유역의 강수량과 지하수위의 관계를 분석한 결과 융설효과를 확인하였고 갈수기에 지하수위가 현저히 저하됨을 확인하였다. 쌍천유역의 지하수위와 GOI의 상관관계를 분석한 결과 70일 이동평균값을 이용한 GOI가 가장 높은 상관관계를 보여주었다. 융설효과를 고려하기 위해서 먼저 유역의 DEM 자료를 이용하여 100m 간격으로 고도별 면적분포를 구하고 기온이 100m당 $0.5^{\circ}C$씩 감소하는 것을 고려하여 강수사상이 발생하면 $0^{\circ}C$ 이하가 되는 고도에서는 강설사상이 발생하는 것으로 가정하였다. 이 때 고도별 면적분포에서 구해지는 면적비를 고려하여 강수사상을 강우와 강설로 나누었다. 이후에 고도를 고려한 기온이 $0^{\circ}C$ 이상인 날에 그 고도의 설적이 모두 녹는 것으로 가정하였고 강우가 발생한 것으로 처리하였다. 유역평균 일최대침투량을 알아내기 위하여 강수량자료를 일정값 이상은 고정하여 수정된 강수량자료로 70일 이동평균값을 구하고 이 값들과 지하수위와의 상관관계를 분석해 본 결과 40mm가 일최대침투량으로 가정하였을 때 가장 높은 상관관계를 보여주었다. 쌍천유역의 경우 40mm가 한계침투량이다. 이렇게 수정된 강수자료를 이용하여 이동평균을 구하여 지하수위와의 상관관계를 구해본 결과 쌍천유역의 2003년부터 2005년까지 2개년 자료에 대해서 융설을 고려했을 때 상관관계가 더 높아짐을 알 수 있고 한계침투량을 고려했을 때도 상관관계가 더 높아짐을 알 수 있으며 융설효과와 한계침투량을 동시에 고려했을 경우에 가장 높은 상관관계를 얻을 수 있었다.$2.8g/cm^3$로 가정했을 때, 경상분지의 화강암류의 압력평균값이 약 $0.73{\sim}3.16kbar$의 범위를 가졌고, 경상분지내 백악기 화강암류의 정치 깊이는 $2.6{\sim}11.4km$범위를 가졌다. 이는 경상분지 화강암류에 대해 유추된 기존의 정성적인 생각과 일치한다는 것을 알 수 있었고, 각섬석의 $Al^T$함량을 이용한 여러 경험적, 실험적인 압력계가 많은 제한점이 있지만 경상분지의 백악기 불국사화강암류에는 정성적으로 유효함을 알 수 있었다. 우리는 최종적으로 경상분지내 백악기 화강암류는 천부관입 암체이고 노출된 화강암류가 천부지각이라는 것을 알 수 있었다. 것이 아니라 낙관적 예측을 수행하는 경향이 있음을 발견할 수 있었다.원밭, 화산회밭으로 6개 유형으로 분류할 경우 각각의 분포면적은 41.9%, 23.3%, 17.5%, 13.9%, 1.1. 2.2% 이었다. 도시화 및 도로확대 등 다양한 토지이용 및 지형개변으로 과거의 토양정보가 많이 변경되었다. 그래서, 앞으로는 인공위성자료 및 항공사진을 이용하여 빠르고 쉽게 활용할 수 있는 토양조사 방법개발과 기 구축된 토양도의 수정, 보완 작업이 필요한 절실히 요구되고 있는 현실이다.브로 출시에 따른 마케팅 및 고객관리와 관련된 시사점을 논의한다.는 교합면에서 2, 3, 4군이 1군에 비해 변연적합도가 높았으며 (p < 0.05), 인접면과 치은면에서는 군간 유의차를 보이지 않았다 이번 연구를 통하여 복합레진을 간헐적 광중합시킴으로써 변연적합도가 향상될 수 있음을 알 수 있었다.시장에 비해 주가가 비교적 안정적인

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