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Multiple Period Forecasting of Motorway Traffic Volumes by Using Big Historical Data (대용량 이력자료를 활용한 다중시간대 고속도로 교통량 예측)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2018
  • In motorway traffic flow control, the conventional way based on real-time response has been changed into advanced way based on proactive response. Future traffic conditions over multiple time intervals are crucial input data for advanced motorway traffic flow control. It is necessary to overcome the uncertainty of the future state in order for forecasting multiple-period traffic volumes, as the number of uncertainty concurrently increase when the forecasting horizon expands. In this vein, multi-interval forecasting of traffic volumes requires a viable approach to conquer future uncertainties successfully. In this paper, a forecasting model is proposed which effectively addresses the uncertainties of future state based on the behaviors of temporal evolution of traffic volume states that intrinsically exits in the big past data. The model selects the past states from the big past data based on the state evolution of current traffic volumes, and then the selected past states are employed for estimating future states. The model was also designed to be suitable for data management systems in practice. Test results demonstrated that the model can effectively overcome the uncertainties over multiple time periods and can generate very reliable predictions in term of prediction accuracy. Hence, it is indicated that the model can be mounted and utilized on advanced data management systems.

Analysis on Gender Characteristics Expressed in Male and Female Costume During the Ancient Greek Age (그리스 시대의 남성복과 여성복에 표현된 젠더(gender) 특성 분석)

  • Yi, Myoung-Hee;Choi, Yoonmi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.63 no.4
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    • pp.84-100
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    • 2013
  • Ancient Greece was a patriarchal society that distinguished gender roles between men and women. Although their costumes were composed of simple rectangular fabric without any technical complications in itself, the Greeks did try to express gender differences in their clothing. The final look of the Greek costume was dependent on the way the cloth draped onto its wearer as well as the wearer's identity. Greeks costume could just be seen as a rectangular fabric when it was not draped on a person's body. The purpose of this study is to examine how the gender differences were expressed in the ancient Greek drapery costume, which was made by using a completely different technical process, compared with the modern tailored costume. There are four elements of the costume that give the costume its formative shape, which are the wearer's body, the rectangular fabric (material as the first formative costume), the way the fabric is draped, and the final appearance as the second formative costume (the relationship between the wearer's body and the costume) and this study analyzes these elements individually. It is intended to analyze the gender characteristics and how each element appears in a different way from the perspective of Structuralism, an analytical method that considers a phenomenon as a total sum of the elements. Literature research was conducted and representative sculpture, painting and pottery, were used between the Archaic Period (B.C. 800~500) and the Classical Period (B.C. 500~323). The results show that the gender differences appear in each formative element of costume: First, the body was distinguished by the ancient Greek custom. The man's nudity was accepted while the woman's body was concealed. Second, in regards to the first formative costume, which was the rectangular fabric, men's were made with thick high quality wool because their involvement in outdoor activities meant that they needed clothes to stay warm, while the women wore clothes made of thin wool or hemp cloth, because their most of their activities were at home. Third, the way to drape the fabric shows the gender differences by changing the length of the clothing and its design ; men's short khiton was practical for big movement and at the same time the clothing exposed the man's body. The woman's doric khiton diversified its decoration by the size of the apotigma and by using the belt. Finally the second formative costume reflected the Greeks' social distinction between a man's body and a woman's body. The man's costume naturally exposed the man's body. On the other hand, the woman's long costume has a variety of shapes on the ground, that concealed her lower body, while the ornamental function was more accentuated than the man's costume. The gender differences expressed in Greek costume fundamentally reflected the point of view of the male and female body and their social roles in society.