• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.57-66
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• 2018

Maritime industry is affected by outside factors significantly due to its derivative demand characteristics. However, the supply side can not react to these changes immediately and due to this uniqueness, maritime industry repeats the boom-bust cycle. Therefore the government itself needs to operate early warning system in order to monitor the market and notice the upcoming risks by setting up a system to prepare for the situations. In this research, signal approach is used to establish early warning system. Overall leading index is composed of crisis index that is based on BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and various leading indexes such as finance, economy, shipping and the others. As a result of computing overall leading index which is early warning system in maritime through signal approach, the index showed a high correlation coefficient with actual maritime risk index by difference of 4 months. Also, the result was highly accurate with overall leading index's QPS(Quadratic Probability Score) at 0.37.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.7
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• pp.127-132
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• 2021

This paper applies a machine learning model to forecasting freight rates in dry bulk and tanker markets with wavelet decomposition and empirical mode decomposition because they can refect both information scattered in the time and frequency domain. The decomposition with wavelet is outperformed for the dry bulk market, and EMD is the more proper model in the tanker market. This result provides market players with a practical short-term forecasting method. This study contributes to expanding a variety of predictive methodologies for one of the highly volatile markets. Furthermore, the proposed model is expected to improve the quality of decision-making in spot freight trading, which is the most frequent transaction in the shipping industry.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.41-64
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• 2011

This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2021.01a
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• pp.329-330
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• 2021

벌크화물운송은 해상운송시장에서 가장 큰 규모이고 철강 및 에너지 산업을 뒷받침 하는 중요한 시장이다. 또한 운임의 변동성이 가장 큰 시장으로 상당한 수익을 기대할 수 있는 반면에 파산에 이르는 큰 손실이 발생할 수 있기때문에 시장 참여자들은 합리적이고 과학적인 예측을 기반하여 의사결정을 해야 한다. 그러나 해운시장에서는 과학적 의사결정보다는 경험기반의 의사결정에 의존하기 때문에 시황변동성에 취약하다. 본 논문은 벌크운임예측에 신호 분해 방법인 EMD와 인공신경망을 결합한 하이브리드 모델을 적용하여 과학적 예측방법을 제시하고자 한다. 본 논문은 학문적으로 해운시장 운임예측연구에서 거의 시도되지 않았던 시계열분해법과 기계학습기법을 결합한 하이브리드 모델을 제시하였다는데 의미가 있으며 실무적으로는 해운시장에서 빈번이 일어나는 의사결정의 질이 제고되는데 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.244-252
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• 2020

The 2008 global financial crisis was triggered by the Lehman Brothers crisis caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States This crisis has had an impact on the globe's dry bulk shipping market by reducing dry bulk cargo volume. An oversupply of dry bulk carriers caused a serious recession in the globe's dry-bulk shipping industry and shipbuilding industry. In this situation, the Korean dry-bulk shipping companies were victims of the quagmire of a long recession since the global financial crisis and could not overcome this crisis. This condition forced them into severe financial risk Thus, it caused many shipping companies to file for bankruptcy. In this study, we classified Korean ocean-going dry-bulk shipping companies into two groups, that is, the solvent group and the insolvent group. We also separated the research period before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. Then we investigated the differences in the major financial ratios of the two groups by t-test and found that some financial ratios such as profitability ratios and growth ratios showed the difference between the two groups with statistical significance. The significance of this study is as follow. First, the shipping company management is also crucial for the systematic management of financial strength and business strategy, it is crucial to manage cargo which a high profitable freight. Second, the shipping company should be managed as a company with continued growth through efficient operation and management of ships.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.217-240
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• 2011

In this study, vector autoregressive and vector error correction models in the short-run dynamics are considered to analyze the effect of the changes in international crude oil prices on Baltic dry index, Baltic Capesize index and Baltic Panamax index, and the intercorrelations between Capesize and Panamax prices, respectively. First, using the vector autoregressive model, the changes in international crude oil price have a statistically significant positive effect for Capesize at lag 1, for Panamax a significant negative effect at lag 3 and a significant positive effect for Baltic dry index at lag 1. From the impulse response analysis, the international crude oil price causes Baltic dry index to increase in the sort-run and the effect converges on the mean after 3 months. Second, using the vector error correction model, the empirical results for the spillover effects between Capesize and Panamax markets provide that in the case of the deviation from a long-run equilibrium the Panamax price is adjusted toward decreasing. The increases in freight rates of the Capesize market at lag 1 lead to increase the freight rates in Panamax market at present. The Panamax responses from the Capesize shocks increase rapidly for 3 months and the effect converges on the mean after 5 months. The Capesize responses from the Panamax shocks are relatively small, and increase weakly for 3 months and the effect disappears thereafter.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.25-32
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• 2017

The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the synchronization between the representative global freight index, the Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI) and the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) with monthly data from 2000 to 2016. Using the non-stationarity of the business cycle that is able to include common trends, we employ the Engle-Granger 2 stage co-integration test and found no synchronization. On the contrary, we additionally estimated the causality between the markets and revealed the causality, which implies that the Chinese economy has a significant effect on the global market. The results of this empirical analysis demonstrate that the CCFI of China is appropriate for analyzing the shipping industry. In practice, this means that it is more appropriate to include CCFI in the global market outlook than use it as a substitute for the global freight rate index, the BDI. This is a case study of the synchronization of the economic fluctuations of the shipping industry. It suggests that the economic fluctuations of China need to be considered in the unstable global market forecast. In particular, this case applies to the fluctuations in the shipping industry synchronism and provides important results in scientific terms.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.123-140
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• 2023

Maritime transportation is one of the oldest means of transportation utilized by mankind, and it has significantly contributed to the advancement of civilization by efficiently transporting bulk cargo at a low cost. The study aim to identify the factors influencing the selection of shipping companies in the bulk shipping market and provide insights for improving the competitiveness of shipping-related companies. To achieve this goal, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed. For the empirical analysis, previous research, interviews, and a pilot test were conducted to identify five top-level factors such as companies, vessels, operations, services, and transaction factors. Each top-level factor has four sub-factors. The results of the analysis, based on 80 valid questionnaires, are as follows: Firstly, in the selection of shipping companies, the priority of factors influencing the choice of shipping companies was as follows: vessel factors were the most important, followed by company, operations, relationship, and service factors. Secondly, when investigating the priority of sub-factors, the availability/appropriateness of vessels was the most crucial factor, followed by company characteristics, financial soundness, and the company's reputation in order. The implications of these findings suggest that shipowners should focus on securing more suitable vessels and enhancing their reputation in response to shippers' demand. Shippers, on the other hand, should consider maintaining a healthy financial structure as a crucial task in securing competitive shipping service providers.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.43-65
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• 2023

Recently, with the increasing international interest on environmental issues, efforts have been made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions due to ship fuel, however, the dependence on fossil fuel is expected to continue for a while. Since fuel costs account for a high portion of the total operating cost of a ship, it is necessary to analyze the influence of oil prices on the shipping markets. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between the international oil prices and the four major shipping markets for bulk carriers. This study employed WTI as the oil price variable while monthly data from 2017 to 2020 from the four major shipping markets by classifying freight rates, charter rates, newbuilding prices, and secondhand prices were also considered in multiple ship sizes of capesize, panamax, supramax, and handysize. Firstly, the results of the correlation analysis using the VAR model indicate that changes in international oil prices have a statistically positive (+) significant effect on BCIS only in the second time lag, on BSIS at all lags, and on BHIS only in the first staggered period. Secondly, as a result of correlation analysis using the VECM model, in the case of BPIC, BHIC, BCIN, and BHIR, the cointegration coefficient value has a negative (-) significant effect at the 5% significance level in the cointegration relationship with international oil prices. Further, in the case of the dynamic correlation, the increase in oil price in the first period of the lag leads to a decrease in the BCIN newbuilding prices while the increase in the oil price in the first and second period in the lag leads to a decrease in the BHIR used ship prices.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.125-145
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• 2018

The Baltic Shipping Exchange is reporting the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which represents the average charter rate for bulk carriers transporting major cargoes such as iron ore, coal, grain, and so on. And the current BDI index is reflected in the proportion of capesize 40%, panamax 30% and spramax 30%. Like mentioned above, the capesize plays a major role among the various sizes of bulk carriers and this study is to analyze the influence of the factors influencing on charter rate of capesize carriers which transport iron ore and coal as the major cargoes. For this purpose, this study verified causality between variables using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and tried to derive a long-run equilibrium model between the dependent variable and independent variables. Regression analysis showed that every six independent variable has a significant effect on the capesize charter rate, even at the 1% level of significance. Charter rate decreases by 0.08% when capesize total fleet increases by 1%, charter rate increases by 0.04% when bunker oil price increases by 1%, and charter rate decreases by 0.01% when Yen/Dollar rate increases by 1%. And charter rate increases by 0.02% when global GDP increases by one unit (1%). In addition, the increase in cargo volume of iron ore and coal which are major transportation items of capesize carriers has also been shown to increase charter rates. Charter rate increases by 0.11% in case of 1% increase in iron ore cargo volume, and 0.09% in case of 1% increase in coal cargo volume. Although there have been some studies to analyze the influence of factors affecting the charterage of bulk carriers in the past, there have been few studies on the analysis of specific size vessels. At present moment when ship size is getting bigger, this study carried out research on capesize vessels, which are biggest among bulk carriers, and whose utilization is continuously increasing. This study is also expected to contribute to the establishment of trade policies for specific cargoes such as iron ore and coal.