Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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Analysis of the Synchronization between Global Dry Bulk Market and Chinese Container Market

글로벌 건화물 운임시장과 중국 컨테이너 운임시장 간의 동조성 분석

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok (Division of Economics, Pusan National University) ;
  • Chang, Myung-Hee (Division of Shipping Management, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • Received : 2016.11.01
  • Accepted : 2017.01.25
  • Published : 2017.02.28
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Abstract

The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the synchronization between the representative global freight index, the Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI) and the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) with monthly data from 2000 to 2016. Using the non-stationarity of the business cycle that is able to include common trends, we employ the Engle-Granger 2 stage co-integration test and found no synchronization. On the contrary, we additionally estimated the causality between the markets and revealed the causality, which implies that the Chinese economy has a significant effect on the global market. The results of this empirical analysis demonstrate that the CCFI of China is appropriate for analyzing the shipping industry. In practice, this means that it is more appropriate to include CCFI in the global market outlook than use it as a substitute for the global freight rate index, the BDI. This is a case study of the synchronization of the economic fluctuations of the shipping industry. It suggests that the economic fluctuations of China need to be considered in the unstable global market forecast. In particular, this case applies to the fluctuations in the shipping industry synchronism and provides important results in scientific terms.

본 연구는 2000년부터 최근 2016년 6월까지 월별 시계열 자료를 이용하여 대표적 글로벌 운임지수인 발틱 건화물지수(Baltic Dry-bulk Index 이하 BDI)와 중국의 컨테이너 운임지수(China Container Freight Index 이하 CCFI) 간의 동조성을 분석한다. 경기변동모형의 불안정성을 반영한 Engle-Granger 2단계 공적분 검정결과는 두 시장간 동조성이 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타났으나, 인과성 검정결과는 전세계 물동량의 상당부분을 차지하는 중국의 해운시황이 글로벌 운임시장에 통계적으로 유의한 영향이 존재하는 것으로 드러났다. 이러한 실증분석결과는 해운시황 예측에 중국의 CCFI지수를 어떻게 활용하는 것이 적합한가에 대한 답을 제시한다. 즉, 실무에서 중국의 운임지수 CCFI를 글로벌 운임지수 BDI를 대신하여 분석하는 것은 적합하지 않으며, BDI 예측모형에 CCFI를 포함하는 것이 적절함을 의미한다. 이상의 실증분석 결과는 산업간 동조성 분석을 해운산업의 경기변동에 적용한 사례로 향후 불안정한 글로벌 시황 예측에 중국의 경기변동 상황을 어떻게 고려하는 것이 적절한가를 제시한다.

Keywords

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