• Title/Summary/Keyword: 거시 모델

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Development of Topic Trend Analysis Model for Industrial Intelligence using Public Data (텍스트마이닝을 활용한 공개데이터 기반 기업 및 산업 토픽추이분석 모델 제안)

  • Park, Sunyoung;Lee, Gene Moo;Kim, You-Eil;Seo, Jinny
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.199-232
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    • 2018
  • There are increasing needs for understanding and fathoming of business management environment through big data analysis at industrial and corporative level. The research using the company disclosure information, which is comprehensively covering the business performance and the future plan of the company, is getting attention. However, there is limited research on developing applicable analytical models leveraging such corporate disclosure data due to its unstructured nature. This study proposes a text-mining-based analytical model for industrial and firm level analyses using publicly available company disclousre data. Specifically, we apply LDA topic model and word2vec word embedding model on the U.S. SEC data from the publicly listed firms and analyze the trends of business topics at the industrial and corporate levels. Using LDA topic modeling based on SEC EDGAR 10-K document, whole industrial management topics are figured out. For comparison of different pattern of industries' topic trend, software and hardware industries are compared in recent 20 years. Also, the changes of management subject at firm level are observed with comparison of two companies in software industry. The changes of topic trends provides lens for identifying decreasing and growing management subjects at industrial and firm level. Mapping companies and products(or services) based on dimension reduction after using word2vec word embedding model and principal component analysis of 10-K document at firm level in software industry, companies and products(services) that have similar management subjects are identified and also their changes in decades. For suggesting methodology to develop analysis model based on public management data at industrial and corporate level, there may be contributions in terms of making ground of practical methodology to identifying changes of managements subjects. However, there are required further researches to provide microscopic analytical model with regard to relation of technology management strategy between management performance in case of related to various pattern of management topics as of frequent changes of management subject or their momentum. Also more studies are needed for developing competitive context analysis model with product(service)-portfolios between firms.

A Study on the stock price prediction and influence factors through NARX neural network optimization (NARX 신경망 최적화를 통한 주가 예측 및 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Min Jong;Lee, Ook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.572-578
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    • 2020
  • The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

A SOA-based Application Model for Building Intelligent Construction Supply Chain Management Framework (지능형 건설물류관리 체계 구축을 위한 SOA 적용 모델 개발)

  • Shin, Tae-Hong;Chin, Sang-Yoon;Yoon, Su-Won;Kwon, Soon-Wook;Kim, Yea-Sang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.733-737
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    • 2008
  • Construction supply chain management focused on materials in construction industry plays a critical role which controls the success and failure of a project. For the efficiency of construction supply chain management, the framework which provides project participants with the information originated from whole construction logistics steps without the omission and discontinuation of information flow is required. The new management framework that can support this environment is necessary because of setting up the complicated and distributed environment including logistics information management by intelligent equipment, co-working management with pre-framework legacy system and various devices(UMPC and PDA etc.) as the information confirmation and electrical transmission tool between the project participants different from former construction supply chain management environment while recently developing ubiquitous technologies such as RFID/USN and intelligent equipment to support logistics process. Therefore, the objective of this study is to introduce the concept of SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) as an alternative of effective information integration under the complex and distributed environment and to propose the SOA-based application model for building intelligent construction supply chain management framework.

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A Study on Hydraulic Characteristics of Rock Joints Dependant on JRC Ranges (JRC 등급에 따른 절리면 수리특성 연구)

  • Chae Byung-Gon;Seo Yong-Seok;Kim Ji-Soo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.4 s.41
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    • pp.461-468
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    • 2004
  • In order to characterize hydraulic property dependant on join roughness in rock mass, this study computed permeability coefficients on each range of joint roughness coefficient (JRC) suggested by Barton(1976). For a quantitative analysis of roughness components spectral analysis using the fast fourier transform was performed to select effective frequencies on each PC range. The results of spectral analyses show that low ranges of the JRC are mainly composed of low frequency domain, while high ranges of the JRC have dominant components at high frequency domain. The inverse Fourier transform made it possible to generate joint models of each JRC range using the effective frequencies of roughness spectrum. The homogenization analysis was applied to calculate permeability coefficient at homogeneous microscale, and then, computes a homogenized permeability coefficient (C-permeability coefficient) at macro scale. Therefore, it is possible to analyze accurate characteristics of permeability reflected with local effect of facture geometry. According to the calculation results, permeability coefficients were distributed between $10^{-3}m/sec\;and\;10^{-4}/sec$. In cases of sheared joint models permeability coefficients were plotted between $10^{-4}m/sec\;and\;10^{-5}/sec$, showing irregular distribution of permeability coefficients on each IRC range. The differences of permeability coefficients for the same aperture models or for the sheared joint models indicate that changes of roughness pattern influence on permeability coefficients. Therefore, the effect of joint roughness should be considered to characterize hydraulic properties in rock joints.

A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

The Economic Effects of Oil Tariff Reduction of Korea-GCC FTA based on VAR Model (VAR모형을 활용한 한-GCC FTA 체결 시 원유관세 인하의 경제적 효과 분석)

  • KIM, Da-Som;RA, Hee-Ryang
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.23-51
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the expected economic effects of the Korea-GCC FTA and sought strategies for industrial cooperation. To see the economic effects of Korea-GCC FTA, we analysed the effect of the oil tariff reduction of economy by Vector Autoregression(VAR) model. The estimation results shows that following the abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports, GDP, GNI and consumption are expected to grow by 0.212%, 0.389% and 0.238%, respectively. Meanwhile, investment, export and import are estimated to drop by 0.462%, 0.413% and 0.342%, respectively. As for prices, producer prices are to rise by 6.356%p, whereas consumer prices fall by 2.996%p. In short, the Korea-GCC FTA and resultant abolishment of the tariff on crude oil imports followed by the decline in crude oil prices will result in declining prices whilst macroeconomic indices, such as GDP, GNI and consumption, will increase exerting positive effects on domestic economic growth. Also, it is necessary to proactively respond to GCC member states' industrial diversification policies for FTA-based industrial cooperation to diversify the sources of crude oil and natural gas imports for further resource risk management.

A Numerical Study on the Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Aluminum Pyramidal Truss Core Sandwich (알루미늄 피라미드 트러스 심재 샌드위치의 열유동 특성에 관한 수치해석 연구)

  • Kang, Jong-Su;Kim, Sang-Woo;Lim, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.638-644
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics within sandwich panels are investigated using computational fluid dynamics. Within the sandwich panels having periodic cellular cores, air can freely move inside the core section so that the structure is able to perform multi-functional roles such as simultaneous load bearing and heat dissipation. Thus, there needs to examine the thermal and flow analysis with respect to design variables and various conditions. In this regard, ANSYS Fluent was utilized to explore the flow and heat transfer within the pyramidal truss sandwich structures by varying the truss angle and inlet velocity. Without the entry effect in the first unitcell, the constant rate of pressure and the constant rate of Nusselt number was observed. As a result, it was demonstrated that Nusselt number increases and friction factor decreases as the inlet velocity increases. Moreover, the rate of Nusselt number and friction factor was appreciable in the range of V=1-5m/s due to the transition from laminar to turbulent flow. Regarding the effect of design variable, the variation of truss angle did not significantly influence the characteristics.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.

Characteristics and Implications of Sports Content Business of Big Tech Platform Companies : Focusing on Amazon.com (빅테크 플랫폼 기업의 스포츠콘텐츠 사업의 특징과 시사점 : 아마존을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Jae-hyoo
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to elucidate the characteristics of big tech platform companies' sports content business in an environment of rapid digital transformation. Specifically, this study examines the market structure of big tech platform companies with a focus on Amazon, revealing the role of sports content within this structure through an analysis of Amazon's sports marketing business and provides an outlook on the sports content business of big tech platform companies. Based on two-sided market platform business models, big tech platform companies incorporate sports content as a strategy to enhance the value of their platforms. Therefore, sports content is used as a tool to enhance the value of their platforms and to consolidate their monopoly position by maximizing profits by increasing the synergy of platform ecosystems such as infrastructure. Amazon acquires popular live sports broadcasting rights on a continental or national basis and supplies them to its platforms, which not only increases the number of new customers and purchasing effects, but also provides IT solution services to sports organizations and teams while planning and supplying various promotional contents, thus creates synergy across Amazon's platforms including its advertising business. Amazon also expands its business opportunities and increases its overall value by supplying live sports contents to Amazon Prime Video and Amazon Prime, providing technical services to various stakeholders through Amazon Web Services, and offering Amazon Marketing Cloud services for analyzing and predicting advertisers' advertising and marketing performance. This gives rise to a new paradigm in the sports marketing business in the digital era, stemming from the difference in market structure between big tech companies based on two-sided market platforms and legacy global companies based on one-sided markets. The core of this new model is a business through the development of various contents based on live sports streaming rights, and sports content marketing will become a major field of sports marketing along with traditional broadcasting rights and sponsorship. Big tech platform global companies such as Amazon, Apple, and Google have the potential to become new global sports marketing companies, and the current sports marketing and advertising companies, as well as teams and leagues, are facing both crises and opportunities.