• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.257-267
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• 2000

The purpose of this study is to analyse the economic effects of General Elections in Korea, in other words, to test the Political Business Cycle hypothesis using ARIMA-Intervention Analysis.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.3 s.89
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• pp.113-123
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• 2006

This article evaluates the effects of eight traffic safety policies such as traffic accident reduction campaign, the seat belt law, three strike out driving while intoxicated, rewarding for reporting traffic offenders on the number of accidents and fatalities. Intervention analysis of time series is used to compare the monthly accident and fatalities with the before and after reinforcement. The results indicate that no significant impact of the traffic enforcement measures on reducing the number of accidents and fatalities.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.273-298
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• 1995

1960년대, 각국의 환율이 미국의 달러화에 연동(pegging)된 고정환율제도를 근간으로 하는 브레튼우즈(Bretton Woods)체제하에서 각국의 중앙은행은 환율을 일정한 범위 내로 유지하기 위한 정책수단으로 외환시장개입을 적극 활용하였다. 1973년 브레튼우즈체제하의 고정환율제도가 붕괴되고 변동환율제도가 채택된 이후에도 각국의 외환시장개입정책은 계속되었다. 1980년대에 레이건 행정부의 재정팽창정책과 미연방준비은행의 긴축통화정책으로 금리의 지속적인 상승과 미달러화의 큰폭의 절상이 이루어 졌다. 이에 국제무역의 위기를 우려한 미국, 독일, 프랑스, 영국, 일본 등 선진 5개국(Group-5, G5)은 1985년 9월 22일 미 달러화의 절하를 위해 외환시장에 공동으로 개입할 것을 주내용으로 한 플라자합의(Plaza Agreement)를 발표하였다. 그후에도 1987년 2월 23일 열린 루브르협정(Louvre Accord, G-6 Communique)에서 환율을 현수준으로 유지시키기 위한 목표환율대(Target zone)를 설정하고 외환시장개입을 통해 이를 유지하기로 합의한 바 있다. 이후의 구미각국은 환율의 관리를 위하여 국가가 공동으로 외환시장에 개입하곤 했다. 본 논문은 1987년 루브르협정 이후 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 외환시장 개입 정책이 소기의 목적을 달성했는지의 여부를 규명해 보고자 한다. 즉, Federal Reserve, Bundesbank 및 Bank of Japan의 외환시장개입이 현물환율시장(spot market)에서 각각의 변동성을 감소 시켰는지의 여부를 독일의 마르크화 및 일본의 엔화를 중심으로 규명해 보고자 한다. 1981년 루브르협정이후, 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행은 미국 달러화에 대한 마르크 및 엔화의 환율을 안정시키기 위해 꾸준히 외환시장에 개입해 왔다. 외환시장의 개입유형은 크게 태화외환시장개입(non-sterilized intervention)과 불태화외환시장개입(sterilized intervention)으로 구분할 수 있는데, 전자는 외환당국이 민간부문과 외화채권을 거래함으로써 본원통화의 크기가 변하는 개입형태를 의미하는 반면에 후자는 외환당국의 순외화자산의 크기변화가 본원통화의 변화를 초래하지 않는 경우이다. 즉, 불태화외환시장개입은 순외화자산의 증감이 순국내자산의 증감과 반비례해서 이루어지기 때문에 본원통화의 크기에는 변함이 없다. 외환시장개입이란 외환당국이 은행간 시장에서 민간시잔 참가자들과 행하는 적극적인 외환거래를 의미한다. 반면, 넓은 의미에서의 외환시장개입에는 수동적 외환시장개입이라고 불리는 고객거래가 포함된다. 후자의 거래는 국내통화 및 외화표시 자산의 상대적 공급규모를 변화시킨다는 의미에서 전통적외환시장개입과 동일한 효과를 갖기 때문에 광의의 외환시장 개입으로 분류된다. 외환시장의 개입목적은 크게 세 가지로 분류할 수 있다. 첫째, 환율의 안정적 운영이다. 환율수준이 자유롭게 변화되는 변동환율제도하에서 환율의 지나친 변동으로 인한 실물경제로의 부정적인 영향을 최소화하기 위해서 환율의 지나친 변동으로 인한 실물경제로의 부정적인 영향을 최소화하기 위해서 환율의 안정을 정책 목표로 설정하는 경우와 고정환율제도하에서 환율을 일정수준으로 유지시키기 위해서 외환당국이 외환시장에 개입하는 경우가 여기에 해당된다고 볼 수 있다. 둘째, 환율수준의 균형수준으로의 조정이다. 이때 야기될 수 있는 문제점으로는 환율균형 수준을 어떻게 정의, 추정할 것이냐 하는 점과 목표환율정책이 다른 정책목표와 상충될 수 있다는 점이다. 셋째, 외환당국이 공적외환보유액이나 구성을 변화시킬 목적으로 외환시장에 개입하는 경우이다. 이때의 외환시장개입은 현재의 환율수준이 개입으로 인하여 과도하게 이탈하는 문제가 발생하지 않을 것을 전제로 한다. 본고에서는 현물환율에 영향을 미치는 요소로 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 개입효과, 요일효과, 통화의 공급량(M1), 무역적자의 폭, 산업의 생산량, 생산가격지수(PPI), 소비자물가지수(CPI), 실업률, 옵션의 내재적 변동성 등을 고려한다. 환율의 변동성을 추정하는 식은 GARCH 모델이 사용된다. 본 추정모델은 Dominguez(1993)의 확장이다. Dominguez (1993)의 논문은 GARCH 모델을 써서 미국, 독일 및 일본의 중앙은행의 시장개입효과를 분석했으나, 거시변수를 고려대상에서 제외시켰다. 본 논문은 위의 방법에 거시변수를 삽입하고 모델을 변형시켜서 더 확실한 시장개입효과와 거시변수효과를 밝혔다. 또한 옵션의 내제적 변동성을 구하는 과정에서 American option model을 사용하는 대신, Bourtha & Courtadon (1987)등이 밝힌 바와 같이 American style option이라 할지라도, European Model을 쓰면 더욱더 간편하고, 예측력도 American Model에 뒤지지 않음을 이용하여, European Model을 써서 내재적 변동성을 구한 다음 이것을 독립변수로 이용하였다. 본 모델의 추정 결과는 3국의 시장개입정책이 현물환율과 옵션의 내재적 변동성을 증가시켜서 Louvre 협정이후 각국은 시장개입의 목적을 달성하지 못한 것으로 나타났다.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.66 no.1
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• pp.5-34
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• 2014

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the school-based post-suicide crisis intervention program for adolescents. Researchers implemented the post-suicide crisis intervention program for all the students, classmate students, teachers and staff members in seven middle/high schools where the suicidal accident happened. Researchers collected data from the three participant groups using open and closed questionnaires and documents, and analysed the data applying mixed evaluative methods. Main results were as follows; First, classmates in two classrooms responded that this crisis intervention program was useful for expressing the sad feeling and mourning their friend. Second, consciousness for life respect of classmates in four classrooms increased. Third, the meaning such as the change of consciousness for life respect and psychological stability was drawn from analysis of categorizing the responses to open questionnaires. Teachers and staffs in six schools responded to questionnaires that post-suicide crisis intervention was helpful for classmate students. Based on the results, practical guidelines were suggested.

• Korean Public Health Research
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2018

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to explore the subjective experiences of problem drinkers participating in the early intervention program for moderate alcohol drinking. Methods : A qualitative descriptive study design was used. Data were collected through individual interviews with thirteen problem drinkers and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Results : The experiences of the problem drinkers participating in the early intervention program were derived from four themes and nine sub-themes in terms of awareness, alcohol expectancies, perceived self-efficacy and behavioral change. They participated in programs offered in the workplace, and there were differences in motivation level among individuals, but generally accepted the necessity of the program. Participants who had trust with the program provider were more likely to change drinking behavior. Conclusion : Problem drinkers who participated in the early intervention program showed that it is a useful approach to change the problem drinking behavior by promoting awareness of alcohol-related knowledge, motivation for change through acquiring enough information and acquisition of self-efficacy as a behavior skill. These findings can be used as basic information for implementing and adapting early intervention for prevention of alcoholism in primary health care setting including workplace.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.788-805
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• 2023

Purpose: This study aimed to verify the impact of Habitat for Humanity Korea's disaster risk reduction intervention on the mental health and satisfaction with life among residents of southern Bangladesh who had constantly suffered from disaster stress due to perennial flooding. Method: The target group was 138 residents who were pre-surveyed in August 2020 and post-surveyed in November 2021. The interventions consisted of individual incremental housing, public facilities for evacuation, and disaster response training for capacity development. The data were analysed using paired sample t-tests for pre-post changes and one-way analysis of variance to identify differences between treatment groups. Result: The results showed significant improvements in residents' depression, anxiety, somatisation and satisfaction with life after the intervention, with significant differences in mental health levels between the intervention treatments. Specifically, relatively higher disaster mitigation effects were found for individual infrastructure improvements and employment facilities compared to disaster response drills. Conclusion: These results demonstrate the positive role of Habitat for Humanity Korea's disaster risk reduction interventions on the mental health recovery of disaster victims and suggest practical approaches that can be applied in disaster risk areas.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.25-37
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• 2016

The economy of South Korea has experienced two financial crises: the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. These crises had a significant impact on the nation's macro-economic indicators. Furthermore, they had a profound influence on container traffic in container ports in Busan, which is the largest port in South Korea in terms of TEUs handled. However, the impact of the Asian financial crisis on container throughput is not clear. In this study, we assume that the two financial crises are independent and different, and then analyze how each of them impacted container throughput in Busan ports. To perform this analysis, we use an intervention model that is a special type of ARIMA model with input series. Intervention models can be used to model and forecast a response series and to analyze the impact of an intervention or event on the series. This study focuses on the latter case, and our results show that the impacts of the financial crises vary considerably.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.64 no.1
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• pp.79-100
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• 2012

The predominant concern of the study consist in: (1) the direct effect of social commitment on teachers' intervention efficacy for helping both victims and offenders in school violence situation; (2) the indirect effects of both teachers' perceptions of offenders and victims, and fairness of school regulations on teachers' intervention efficacy. Research is based on a survey conducted with 351 teachers(84 males and 267 females) from 10 middle schools located in different districts of the city of Daegu. In order for subjects to verify research questions, structural equation models in teachers' intervention efficacy for helping both victims and offenders were explored. In order to verify the difference between mediators' effect, along with total indirect effect and each individual mediator's effects, bias-corrected bootstrapping analysis by using Mplus were employed. The major findings of the study supported the significance on direct effect of social commitment, and indirect effect of both fairness of school regulations and teachers' perceptions toward offenders and victims, on teachers' intervention efficacy. However, the indirect effect of fairness of school regulations(.025) was far outweighed by teachers' perceptions(.224) toward offenders and victims. In conclusion, the above findings claim our attention in that they provide a range of practical implications for teachers and other related professionals including school workers who are engaged in helping out both victims and offenders in school violence situation.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.10
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• pp.33-43
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• 2016

The purpose of this study was using a meta-analysis to estimate effect size of school violence prevention program. Using an objective and systematic method, meta-analysis has advantages that prove intervention's amount and direction. Meta-analysis facilitates comprehensive analysis. Through the data collection, 33studies were selected and 129 effect size were calculated as analysis objects. The overall effect size of school violence prevention program was 0.624. In the human characteristic, the affective domain had the largest effect size. Next were the physical domain, cognitive domain, the social domain and the complex domain. Analysis on age of participant, high grade elementary students group had the largest effect size. Next were the high school students, middle school students and the lower grade elementary students group. Analysis on intervention periods, tertiary prevention had a largest effect size. Next were secondary prevention and primary prevention. Based on the findings, implications for future study were discussed.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.23-42
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• 2002

The purpose of this study was to analyze the results of 133 studies related to patient compliance published between 1980 and 2001 and to assess the effectiveness of intervention on compliance by using meta-analysis. We collected the existing literatures by using web and manual search 'patient compliance', 'sick role behavior', 'major clinical disease', and 'intervention' as key words and by reviewing content of journals related to medicine, nursing and public health. The compliance interventions were classified by theoretical focus into educational, behavioral, and affective categories within which specific intervention strategies were further distinguished. The compliance indicators broadly represent five classes of compliance-related assessments: (1) health outcomes (eg, blood pressure and hospitalization), (2) direct indicators (eg, urine and blood tracers and weight change), (3) indirect indicators (eg, pill count and refill records), (4) subjective report (eg, patients' or others' reports), (5) utilization (appointment making and keeping, use of preventive services). Quantitative meta-analysis was performed by MetaKorea program which was developed for meta-analysis in Korea. Among the 133 articles, 10 studies were selected through the qualitative meta-analysis process, and then only 6 studies were selected for the quantitative meta-analysis finally. The interventions produced significant effects for all the compliance indicators with the magnitude of common effect size (4.1192) than the non-intervention group in a random effect model. The largest effects were each study for patient of hypertension using health outcome such as blood pressure (0.4679) and diabetes mellitus using direct indicator such as glucose level in blood and urine (0.7753). These results suggest that strategic interventions showed clear advantage for improvement of patient compliance compared with non-intervention group.