• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.489-502
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• 2017

The objective of this study is to propose and evaluate the BAYES-ESP, which is a dam inflow prediction method based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP) and Bayesian theory. ABCD rainfall-runoff model was used to predict monthly dam inflow. Monthly meteorological data collected from KMA, MOLIT and K-water and dam inflow data collected from K-water were used for the model calibration and verification. To estimate the performance of ABCD model, ESP and BAYES-ESP method, time series analysis and skill score (SS) during 1986~2015 were used. In time series analysis monthly ESP dam inflow prediction values were nearly similar for every years, particularly less accurate in wet and dry years. The proposed BAYES-ESP improved the performance of ESP, especially in wet year. The SS was used for quantitative analysis of monthly mean of observed dam inflows, predicted values from ESP and BAYES-ESP. The results indicated that the SS values of ESP were relatively high in January, February and March but negative values in the other months. It also showed that the BAYES-ESP improved ESP when the values from ESP and observation have a relatively apparent linear relationship. We concluded that the existing ESP method has a limitation to predict dam inflow in Korea due to the seasonality of precipitation pattern and the proposed BAYES-ESP is meaningful for improving dam inflow prediction accuracy of ESP.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2008

This study intends to clarify the characteristics and causes of current changes in wintertime precipitation in Korea and to predict the future directions based on surface observational $(1973/04\sim2006/07)$ and modeled (GFDL 2.1) climate data. Analyses of surface observation data demonstrate that without changes in the total amount of precipitation, snowfall in winter (November-April) has reduced by 4.3cm/decade over the $1973\sim2007$ period. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of snowfall have decreased; the duration of snow season has shortened; and the snow-to-rain day ratio (STDR) has decreased. These patterns indicate that the type of wintertime precipitation has changed from snow to rain in recent decades. The snow-to-rain change in winter is associated with the increases of air temperature (AT) over South Korea. Analyses of synoptic charts reveal that the warming pattern is associated with the formation of a positive pressure anomaly core over northeast Asia by a hemispheric positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode. Moreover, the differentiated warming of AT versus sea surface temperature (SST) under the high pressure anomaly core reduces the air-sea temperature gradient, and subsequently it increases the atmospheric stability above oceans, which is associated with less formation of snow cloud. Comparisons of modeled data between torrent $(1981\sim2000)$ and future $(2081\sim2100)$ periods suggest that the intensified warming with larger anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the $21^{st}$ century will amplify the magnitude of these changes. More reduction of snow impossible days as well as more abbreviation of snow seasons is predicted in the $21^{st}$ century.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.432-447
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• 2016

The increased frequency of drought and flood due to climate change was a global problem. In particular, drought was recognized as a serious environmental, ecological, social, and economic disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to study the measures to prevent it. In this study, we will estimate the meteorological drought index in the Han River Basin and analyze the impact of climate change on drought. The change of the meteorological drought occurrence due to climate change in the Han River separated by the common drought and severe drought was analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The years 1973 - 2010 were selected for analysis in the current period. Using the scenario, we separated the future period (Target I: 2011 - 2039, Target II: 2040 - 2069, Target III : 2070 - 2099). The number of occurrences of less than -1.0 and -1.5 standard precipitation index were analyzed by SPI 3, 6, 12. Looking at the results, trends in rainfall in the Han River was expected to increase from the current figures, the occurrence of drought is predicted to decline in the future. However, the number of drought occurrence was analyzed to increase toward long-term drought. The number of severe drought occurrences was usually larger than the common drought estimated. Additional studies may be considered in addition to the agricultural drought, hydrological drought, socio-economic drought. This will be done by using efficient water management. The results can be used as a basis for future drought analysis of the Han River.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.spc1
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• pp.1107-1118
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• 2021

Climate change brought on by global warming increased the frequency of flood and drought on the Korean Peninsula, along with the casualties and physical damage resulting therefrom. Preparation and response to these water disasters requires national-level planning for water resource management. In addition, watershed-level management of water resources requires flow duration curves (FDC) derived from continuous data based on long-term observations. Traditionally, in water resource studies, physical rainfall-runoff models are widely used to generate duration curves. However, a number of recent studies explored the use of data-based deep learning techniques for runoff prediction. Physical models produce hydraulically and hydrologically reliable results. However, these models require a high level of understanding and may also take longer to operate. On the other hand, data-based deep-learning techniques offer the benefit if less input data requirement and shorter operation time. However, the relationship between input and output data is processed in a black box, making it impossible to consider hydraulic and hydrological characteristics. This study chose one from each category. For the physical model, this study calculated long-term data without missing data using parameter calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physical model tested for its applicability in Korea and other countries. The data was used as training data for the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) data-based deep learning technique. An anlysis of the time-series data fond that, during the calibration period (2017-18), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the determinanation coefficient for fit comparison were high at 0.04 and 0.03, respectively, indicating that the SWAT results are superior to the LSTM results. In addition, the annual time-series data from the models were sorted in the descending order, and the resulting flow duration curves were compared with the duration curves based on the observed flow, and the NSE for the SWAT and the LSTM models were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, and the determination coefficients were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The findings indicate that both models yield good performance. Even though the LSTM requires improved simulation accuracy in the low flow sections, the LSTM appears to be widely applicable to calculating flow duration curves for large basins that require longer time for model development and operation due to vast data input, and non-measured basins with insufficient input data.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.41 no.5 s.116
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• pp.527-544
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• 2006

This study provides a definition of heat waves, which indicate the conditions of strong sultriness in summer, appropriate to Korea and intends to clarify long term(1973-2006) averaged spatial and temporal patterns of annual frequency of heat waves with respect to their intensity. Based on examination of the Korean mortality rate changes due to increase of apparent temperature under hot and humid summer conditions, three consecutive days with at least $32.5^{\circ}C,\;35.5^{\circ}C,\;38.5^{\circ}C,\;and\;41.5^{\circ}C$ of daily maximum Heat Index are defined as the Hot Spell(HS), the Heat Wave(HW), the Strong Heat Wave(SHW), and the Extreme Heat Wave(EHW), respectively. The annual frequency of all categories of heat waves is relatively low in high-elevated regions or on islands adjacent to seas. In contrast, the maximum annual frequency of heat waves during the study period as well as annual average frequency are highest in interior, low-elevated regions along major rivers in South Korea, particularly during the Changma Break period(between late July and mid-August). There is no obvious increasing or decreasing trend in the annual total frequency of all categories of heat waves for the study period However, the maximum annual frequencies of HS days at each weather station were recorded mainly in the 1970s, while most of maximum frequency records of both the HW and the SHW at individual weather stations were observed in the 1990s. It is also revealed that when heat waves occur in South Korea high humidity as well as high temperature contributes to increasing the heat wave intensity by $4.3-9.5^{\circ}C$. These results provide a useful basis to help develop a heat wave warning system appropriate to Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.10 s.159
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• pp.825-839
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• 2005

Application of the EST approach for the simulation of the risk-based typhoon hazard potential is described in this paper. For six selected cities In the Korean peninsula, EST simulations for one hundred years were performed one hundred times using historical typhoon data as a training data set. The analytical results of EST simulations were then post-processed to estimate the means, standard deviations, and ranges of variation for the maximum wind velocities and the daily rainfalls. From the comparison of the averages of the wind velocities for the 100 year recurrence interval typhoons, the wind hazard potential of them was revealed to be highest for Mokpo among the six cities, followed by Busan, Cheju, Inchun, Taegu, and Seoul in descending order For the flood hazard potential associated with a typhoon, Busan was ranked to be the highest hazard potential area, followed by Mokpo, Cheju, Seoul, Inckun, and Taegu. In terms of the overall typhoon hazard potential, cities in the southern coastal regions were identified as being exposed to the most severe typhoon hazard.

• Water for future
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.249-258
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• 1986

The purpose of this study is to estimate the PMP frequency factor for evaluation of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) in Korea. The value of PMP is the criterion of the determination of design rainfall in Planning and designing hydraulic structures, and water resources management. To obtain the object, 12 key stations were selected in which have the automatic rain0recording paper of 20 years, and the annual maximum rainfall values were calculated for each 7 durations(10 min., 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 24 hr.). The statistics(mean, standard deviation)were estimated, and diagram which shows the relationship between mean annual maximum rainfall($$) and frequency factor for each durations were drawn. PMP was estimated by statistical method using the PMP frequency factor obtained from the diagram and statistics($$, Sn). The PMP-Duration Equation was derived from the envelope curve in order to obtain the PMP for an arbitrary duration. The isohyetal map of 24 hours PMP and PMP. DAD curve for the whole of Korea were drawn in accordance with the point PMP values.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.115-119
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• 2000

Oak mushroom(Lentinus edoes(Berk) Sing) is one of the most important edible mushrooms, and its production has been rapidly increased due to nutritional and medicinal effects. In this study, climatic factors during the growing period of high-quality oak mushroom were analyzed and environmental factors affecting the quality of oak mushroom were discussed. Three places(Changheung, Puyo and Wonj) as mass producing areas of high-quality oak mushrooms and the 15 days of the growing period in 1997-1998 were selected. Major climatic factors for analysis were average air temperature, average relative humidity, ranges of daily air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. During the period, th daily average air temperature was $7~20^{\circ}C$ with the diurnal air temperature($7~20^{\circ}C$) and nocturnal air temperature($0~-2^{\circ}C$). The relative humidity ranged between 50 and 70% with the range of daily relative humidity(40~60%). Wind velocity was 1~4m.$s^{-1}$, From the results, it is concluded that the growing environmental conditions for high-quality oak mushroom differed from the optimum conditions for the high productivity of oak mushroom; environmental conditions such as wide ranges of air temperature and relative humidity, low humidity and wind speed might affect the emergence of high-quality oak mushroom.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.279-293
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• 1993

In recent yeaes, the collapses of man made structures have been encountered from time to time due to the deformation of the ground in korea. Furthermore, the possibilities of casasters from the ground deformation suCh as landslide and active fault are atrracting our attention to the deformation monitoring. In this study, two-coordinate tilt which was monitored during six months in order to develop tediniques for prevention of disasters from the ground deformation. The two-coordinate tilt which was detected by a tilt-sensor installed in shallow depth on the slope with the sensitivity of 0.0001 arc.sec in every 10 minutes was recorded continously to PC through the interface with 200-m line coonection. The observed digital tilt data. together with the relevant meteorological data were analyzed in reference to engineering application. During the whole observation period of six months, the net tilt is 10.06 arc.sec to the west and 73.88 arc.sec to the south. Consequently the ground has a tilt of 74.56 arc.sec to the direction of $S7.75^{\circ}W$ with average tilting of 0.02 arc.sec/hour. In spite of such fast and large tilting, it is interpreted in view of engineering aspects that the site is much safe from danger, since both East-West and North-South components of tilt converge as time goes by. Two categories of deformational events are recognized ; one is toward the direction of surface slope and the other is to the direction of increased pore pressure. Tiks are acenain to have a close relation with precipitation of rain. The daily variation of two-coordinate tilt is delayed 4.3 hours in average after the variation of atmospheric temperature. A certain correlation between atmospheric pressure and deformation might be revealed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.11
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• pp.985-997
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• 2020

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)-MODFLOW (Modular Groundwater Flow) is a coupled model that linking semi-distributed watershed hydrology with fully-distributed groundwater behavior. In this study, the groundwater simulation results of SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW were compared for Bokhacheon watershed in Namhan river basin. The models were calibrated and validated with 9 years (2009~2017) daily streamflow (Q) data of Heungcheon (HC) water level gauge station and the daily groundwater level observation data of Yulheon (YH). For SWAT, the groundwater parameters of GW_DELAY, GWQMN, and ALPHA_BF affecting baseflow and recession phase were treated. The SWAT results showed the coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.7 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies (NES_Q, NSE_inQ) for Q and 1/Q with 0.73 and -0.1 respectively. For SWAT-MODFLOW, the spatio-temporal aquifer hydraulic conductivity (K, m/day), specific storage (S_s, 1/m), and specific yield (S_y) were applied. The SWAT-MODFLOW showed R², NSE_Q, and NSE_inQ of 0.69, 0.74, and 0.51 respectively. The SWAT-MODFLOW considerably enhanced the low flow simulation with the help of aquifer physical information. The total streamflow of SWAT and SWAT-MODFLOW were 718.6 mm and 854.9 mm occupying baseflow of 342.9 mm and 423.5 mm respectively.