• Title/Summary/Keyword: 강우변동양상

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An Hourly Extreme Rainfall Outlook Using Climate Information (기상인자를 활용한 시단위 극치강우량 전망)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Hong, Min;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2018
  • 세계의 여러 국가에서 과거 발생했던 강수의 통계적 특성에서 벗어나는 극치사상이 빈번하게 관측되고 있다. 이와 같은 현상에 가장 큰 영향을 미치고 있는 요인중 하나는 지구온난화이며 실제 산업화 이후 온실가스의 증가와 더불어 극한 기상현상의 발생 빈도가 증가하였다. 현재 예상치 못한 수문사상의 발생으로 인해 수자원관리에 있어서 많은 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 특히 호우사상은 막대한 인명 및 사회적 피해를 야기하고 있다. 우리나라의 경우 계절적 특징으로 여름철에 강수가 집중되는 양상을 보이고 있으며 따라서 여름철 강수량을 예측하여 호우에 대한 대비책을 마련해야한다. 계절강수 예측은 수문, 산림, 식품, 등을 포함한 사회 경제적 파급 효과가 매우 크지만 아직 신뢰성 있는 예측은 어려운 상태이다. 또한, 발생 강도와 빈도가 큰 극한 강우는 주로 짧은 시간에 걸쳐 발생하기 때문에 예측하기가 어렵다. 최근 다양한 분야의 연구에서 AO, NAO, ENSO, PDO등과 같은 외부적 요인이 수문학적 빈도를 변화시킨다고 알려지고 있어 본 연구에서는 Bayesian 통계기법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석모형을 토대로 외부 기상인자에 의한 변동성을 고려할 수 있는 계절강수량 예측모형을 구축한 후 산정된 결과를 입력 자료로 하여 극치강수량을 추정할 수 있는 비정상성 Four - Parameter (4P)-Beta분포를 이용한 알고리즘을 개발하여 직접적으로 일단위 이하의 극치강수량을 상세화 시킬 수 있는 모형으로 확장하여 이를 통해 기상변동성을 다양한 시간규모에서 고려하기 위한 정보로 활용하고자 하였다.

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Spatio-temporal Regression Analysis between Soil Moisture Measurements and Terrain Attributes at Hillslope Scale (사면에서 지형분석을 통한 토양수분 시공간 회귀분석)

  • Song, Tae-Bok;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Yunghil;Jung, Sungwon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.161-170
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    • 2013
  • Spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture was studied to improve understanding of hydrological processes at hillslope scale. Using field measurements for three designated periods during the spring, summer and autumn seasons in 2010 obtained from Beomryunsa hillslope located at the Sulmachun watershed, correlation analysis was performed between soil moisture measurements and 18 different terrain attributes (e.g., curvatures and topographic index). The results of correlation analysis demonstrated distinct seasonal variation features of soil moisture in different depths with different terrain attributes and rainfall amount. The relationship between predicted flow lines and distribution of the soil moisture provided appropriate model structures and terrain indices.

Rainfall image DB construction for rainfall intensity estimation from CCTV videos: focusing on experimental data in a climatic environment chamber (CCTV 영상 기반 강우강도 산정을 위한 실환경 실험 자료 중심 적정 강우 이미지 DB 구축 방법론 개발)

  • Byun, Jongyun;Jun, Changhyun;Kim, Hyeon-Joon;Lee, Jae Joon;Park, Hunil;Lee, Jinwook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.403-417
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    • 2023
  • In this research, a methodology was developed for constructing an appropriate rainfall image database for estimating rainfall intensity based on CCTV video. The database was constructed in the Large-Scale Climate Environment Chamber of the Korea Conformity Laboratories, which can control variables with high irregularity and variability in real environments. 1,728 scenarios were designed under five different experimental conditions. 36 scenarios and a total of 97,200 frames were selected. Rain streaks were extracted using the k-nearest neighbor algorithm by calculating the difference between each image and the background. To prevent overfitting, data with pixel values greater than set threshold, compared to the average pixel value for each image, were selected. The area with maximum pixel variability was determined by shifting with every 10 pixels and set as a representative area (180×180) for the original image. After re-transforming to 120×120 size as an input data for convolutional neural networks model, image augmentation was progressed under unified shooting conditions. 92% of the data showed within the 10% absolute range of PBIAS. It is clear that the final results in this study have the potential to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of existing real-world CCTV systems with transfer learning.

Estimation of probability precipitation using non-stationary frequency analysis with GCM outputs (GCM 시나리오 자료를 이용한 비정상성 확률강우량 산정)

  • Cho, Hyungon;Kim, Gwangseob;Kim, Guk-Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.529-529
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    • 2015
  • 기후변화에 따른 자연재해로 인한 인적, 물적 피해가 매년 증가하고 있으며 기후변동에 관한 정부간 협의체 IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) 5차 보고서에서도 기후변화의 양상이 향후 지속 될 것이라고 전망하고 있다. 이러한 기후변화가 야기하는 부정적인 영향을 저감하기 위해 기후변화 대응을 위한 연구가 세계 곳곳에서 이루어지고 있으며 본 연구에서는 한반도에 적합한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하기 위하여 베이지안 기법을 이용하여 산정된 확률강우량과 전지구적 기후변화 시나리오 RCP(2.6, 4,5, 6.0, 8.5)의 다운스케일을 통하여 산정된 확률강우량의 최적 블랜딩을 통하여 비정상성 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 낙동강유역의 1973-2013년 시강우 자료를 이용한 정상성 대비 증감률은 다음과 같다(Table 1).

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Soil Moisture Modelling at the Topsoil of a Hillslope in the Gwangneung National Arboretum Using a Transfer Function (전이함수를 통한 광릉 산림 유역의 토양수분 모델링)

  • Choi, Kyung-Moon;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Son, Mi-Na;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2008
  • Soil moisture is one of the important components in hydrological processes and also controls the subsurface flow mechanism at a hillslope scale. In this study, time series of soil moisture were measured at a hillslope located in Gwangneung National Arboretum, Korea using a multiplex Time Domain Reflectometry(TDR) system measuring soil moisture with bi-hour interval. The Box-Jenkins transfer function and noise model was used to estimate spatial distributions of soil moisture histories between May and September, 2007. Rainfall was used as an input parameter and soil moisture at 10 cm depth was used as an output parameter in the model. The modeling process consisted of a series of procedures(e.g., data pretreatment, model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of selected models), and the relationship between soil moisture and rainfall was assessed. The results indicated that the patterns of soil moisture at different locations and slopes along the hillslope were similar with those of rainfall during the measurment period. However, the spatial distribution of soil moisture was not associated with the slope of the monitored location. This implies that the variability of the soil moisture was determined more by rainfall than by the slope of the site. Due to the influence of vegetation activity on soil moisture flow in spring, the soil moisture prediction in spring showed higher variability and complexity than that in early autumn did. This indicates that vegetation activity is an important factor explaining the patterns of soil moisture for an upland forested hillslope.

Influence of the Asian Monsoon on Seasonal Fluctuations of Water Quality in a Mountainous Stream (산간 계류성 하천의 계절적 수질변동에 대한 몬순강우의 영향)

  • Shin, In-Chul;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.1 s.110
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    • pp.54-62
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    • 2005
  • The present study was to determine how seasonal rainfall intensity influences nutrient dynamics, ionic contents, oxygen demands, and suspended solids in a lotic ecosystem. Largest seasonal variabilities in most parameters occurred during the two months of July to August and these were closely associated with large spate of rainfall. Dissolved oxygen (DO) had an inverse function of water temperature (r = = = - 0.986, p<0.001). Minimum pH values of<6.5 were observed in the late August when rainfall peaked in the study site, indicating an ionic dilution of stream water by precipitation. Electrical conductivity (EC) was greater during summer than any other seasons, so the overall conductivity values had direct correlation (r = 0.527, p<0.01) with precipitation. Ionic dilution, however, was evident 4 ${\sim}$ 5 days later in short or 1 ${\sim}$ 2 weeks in long after the intense rain, indicating a time-lag phenomenon of conductivity. Daily COD values varied from 0.8 mg $L^{-1}$ to 7.9 mg $L^{-1}$ and their seasonal pattern was similar (r = 0.548, p<0.001) to that of BOD. Total nitrogen (TN) varied little compared to total phosphorus (TP) and was minimum in the base flow of March. In contrast, major input of TP occurred during the period of summer monsoon and this pattern was similar to suspended solids, implying that TP is closely associated (r = 0.890, p<0.01) with suspended inorganic solids. Mass ratios of TN : TP were determined by TP (r= -0.509, p<0.01) rather than TN (r= -0.209, p<0.01). The N : P ratios indicated that phosphorus was a potential primary limiting nutrient for the stream productivity. Overall data suggest that rainfall intensity was considered as a primary key component regulating water chemistry in the stream and maximum variation in water quality was attributed to the largest runoff spate during the summer monsoon.

Analysis of outflow pattern considering to prevent blocking in urban sewer (막힘방지를 고려한 관거내 유출양상 분석)

  • Song, Yang Ho;Jun, Hwan Don;Lee, Jung Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.305-305
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    • 2015
  • 도심지에서의 우수관거시스템의 경우 적정 설계빈도 기준에 따라 유입량에 따른 적정 통수능을 확보할 수 있도록 설계되고 있다. 유입량에 동반되는 토사량의 경우 관내 퇴적 방지를 위한 적정 설계유속 조건 반영을 통해 관내 퇴적이 이루어지지 않도록 고려하고 있다. 그러나 2011년 7월 우면산 토사피해, 2014년 8월 금정산 토사피해와 같이 실제 발생한 주요 침수피해들의 경우 다양한 피해발생 원인들 중 관로 내 토사퇴적에 따른 우수관로의 통수능력의 저하되는 문제점이 지적되었다. 설계 시 적절히 고려하지 못한 토사의 유입은 관내 토사 퇴적으로 이어지고 결과적으로 통수단면 저하에 따른 월류발생 및 도심지 내 침수피해가 발생으로 이어지게 된다. 따라서 이러한 문제를 해결하고 기존 관거의 통수능력을 적절히 확보하기 위해서는 관거 내의 퇴사량에 대한 분석과 이를 고려한 관로 설계가 필수적이다. 도시유역에서 일반적인 우수관거로 유입되는 토사의 경우 산지유역과 달리 비교적 작은 입경을 가진 토사들로 구성된다. 즉, 유입되는 토사량에 있어 입경의 적정 크기 및 분포에 따라서 관거내 토사 퇴적량이 달라지게 되며 이를 해소할 수 있는 유속 범위에 대한 분석이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 토사 입경별 관내 유속에 따른 퇴적양상을 검토하기 위하여 특정 제원의 관거 및 우수관거로 유입되는 토사의 입경들을 기준으로 관내 수심의 변동에 따른 우수관거를 지나는 각입자별 부유 퇴적의 기준이 되는 한계유속 조건을 산정하였으며, 이를 고려한 관거의 경사도 조정을 통해 설계유량에 따른 관거 내 토사퇴적량 변화를 살펴보았다. 이때, 관로내에 일정량의 토사가 지속적으로 유입되는 것으로 가정하였으며, 유입되는 토사의 입경을 0.1mm~30.0mm까지 세분화하여, 유입되는 토사 전량에 대한 입경을 하나의 입경으로 고정시킨 조건으로 관내 유속에 따른 퇴적 양상의 변화를 검토하였다. 향후 해당 조건을 반영한 설계방안의 경우 설계강우에 대한 고려를 통하여 신뢰도 측면에서 관거내 토사의 퇴적과 유속 관계에 대한 분석을 바탕으로 이루어져야 하며, 이를 통하여 일반적인 관거의 설계 기준이 수립될 필요가 있다고 판단된다.

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Spatial and Temporal Variation of Macroinvertebrates according to Physical Factors in Gongji Stream Area (공지천 수계에서 물리적인 요인에 따른 저서성 대형무척추동물 군집의 시.공간적인 변동)

  • Lee, Jaeyong;Lee, Kwang-Yeol;Han, Sang-Jin;Lee, Seok-Jong;Jung, Yukyong;Cheon, Jaelyoung;Choi, Jaeseok;Kim, Joon Chul
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.24-32
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    • 2014
  • Our study is purposed to understand effect on spatio-temporal variability of macroinvertebrate community 11 sampling times at 4 sites between two streams (Shinchon stream and Gongji stream in Chuncheun City) from May 2011 to October 2013. In this study, the possible physical factors on spatio-temporal variability of macroinvertebrate community were discussed. After stream improvement project, the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in study sites appeared as increased water temperature more than $30^{\circ}C$ and the difference of water temperature between Shinchon stream and Gongji stream was by maximum $9^{\circ}C$ on 2012. The monsoon rainfall decreased number of species, individuals and biodiversity index of macroinvertebrate community, particularly, in Shincheon stream compare to Gongji stream. Dominant species of macroinvertebrate taxa was caddisfly in Shincheon stream and Diptera in Gongji stream but on August 2013, it was dominated by Diptera, Chironomidae spp. in all study sites. The spatio-temporal variability of macroinvertebrate community in the streams may be useful as bio-indicator influencing anthropogenic factors such as soil erosion (landslide or cultivation) or monsoon rainfall.

Limnological Characteristics of the River-type Paltang Reservoir, Korea: Hydrological and Environmental Factors (하천형 저수지 팔당호의 육수학적 특성:수문과 수환경 요인)

  • Shin, Jae-Ki;Kang, Chang-Keun;Kim, Ho-Sub;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.3 s.104
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    • pp.242-256
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    • 2003
  • This study aimed to determine the relationship between rainfall-discharge patterns and maior aquatic environmental factors in a river-type reservoir. Specifically, daily monitoring was conducted in Paltang Reservoir from January 1999 to December 2001. Observation of the daily changes of the environment factors showed that natural meteorological factors and hydrological factors causing the change of water discharge had a major effect on the aquatic environment. Rainfall was the main source of hydrological changes, with its frequency a possible direct variable governing the range of discharge changes. Rainfall was weak in November${\sim}$May and heavy in June${\sim}$October (heavist in summer). The range of water discharge was greatest during summer (July to September) and lowest during winter (January to February). A principal component analysis (PCA) showed that aquatic environmental factors could be classified into three different types in the pattern of annual variation. First, type I included water temperature, turbidity, water color and organic matter (COD), which increased with increasing water discharge. Second, type ll consisted of DO and pH, which decreased with increasing water discharge. Third, type III included conductivity, alkalinity and chloride ion, which showed middle values with increasing water discharge. Monthly variation of aquatic environments explained by the first two dimensions of the PCA suggests that aquatic environments of Paltang Reservoir may have annual cycle typical of river-type reservoirs depending on hydrological factor such as water discharge.

Daily Variations of Water Turbidity and Particle Distribution of High Turbid-Water in Paltang Reservoir, Korea (팔당호에서 수중 탁도의 일 변동과 고탁수의 입자 분포)

  • Shin, Jae-Ki;Kang, Chang-Keun;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.3 s.104
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    • pp.257-268
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    • 2003
  • Daily monitoring was conducted to elucidate the changes in turbidity and distribution of particles in the turbid water of a river-type reservoir (Paltang Reservoir) from 1999 to 2001. Water turbidity and the particle distribution of turbid water were principally affected by meteorological factors particularly rainfall patterns and hydrological factors such as inflow and outflow. The mean concentration of turbidity was constant each year, with the concentration of less than 10 NTU accounting for 85%. Seasonal characteristics were remarkable, with winter and spring having < 5 NTU, autumn 5 ${\sim}$ 10 NTU, and summer > 20 NTU. Unlike hydrological changes, maximum turbidity was observed from late July to early August and continuously increased from 1999 to 2001. In particular, the maximum turbidity of reservoirs remarkably increased toward the lower part of reservoir in 2001. Discharge and turbidity increased or decreased slowly in 1999; in contrast, turbidity rapidly increased in the early rainfall period of 2000 and 2001 but later decreased as discharge increased. In the particles of turbid water, clay ingredients were more densely distributed and more dominant in all stations. Of the total particles in turbid water, clay constituted 63.9${\sim}$66.6% and silt 33.4${\sim}$36.1% to account for a combined total of 98.9 ${\sim}$ 100%. Sand made up less than 1.1%. The turbidity of river-type reservoir was also found to be mainly affected by the biomass of plankton in a non-rainfall period. During a rainfall period, however, the quantity and relative ratio of inorganic particles depending on the soil components affected turbidity.