• Title/Summary/Keyword: 강건 예측

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Estimation of city gas demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 도시가스의 수요함수 추정)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Euh, Seung-Seob;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.370-375
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the city gas demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the city gas demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's city gas consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as city gas price and forecasting the demand for city gas. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the city gas demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the city gas demand are estimated to be -0.522 and 0.874, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for city gas is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the city gas is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the city gas demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for city gas is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis (정확한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 아카이케 정보척도 기반 일반화파레토 분포의 임계점 추정)

  • Kang, Seunghoon;Lim, Woochul;Cho, Su-Gil;Park, Sanghyun;Lee, Minuk;Choi, Jong-Su;Hong, Sup;Lee, Tae Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.163-168
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    • 2015
  • In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

3D Pointing for Effective Hand Mouse in Depth Image (깊이영상에서 효율적인 핸드 마우스를 위한 3D 포인팅)

  • Joo, Sung-Il;Weon, Sun-Hee;Choi, Hyung-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2014
  • This paper proposes a 3D pointing interface that is designed for the efficient application of a hand mouse. The proposed method uses depth images to secure high-quality results even in response to changes in lighting and environmental conditions and uses the normal vector of the palm of the hand to perform 3D pointing. First, the hand region is detected and tracked using the existing conventional method; based on the information thus obtained, the region of the palm is predicted and the region of interest is obtained. Once the region of interest has been identified, this region is approximated by the plane equation and the normal vector is extracted. Next, to ensure stable control, interpolation is performed using the extracted normal vector and the intersection point is detected. For stability and efficiency, the dynamic weight using the sigmoid function is applied to the above detected intersection point, and finally, this is converted into the 2D coordinate system. This paper explains the methods of detecting the region of interest and the direction vector and proposes a method of interpolating and applying the dynamic weight in order to stabilize control. Lastly, qualitative and quantitative analyses are performed on the proposed 3D pointing method to verify its ability to deliver stable control.

A Study on the Estimation of Regional Myocardial Blood Flow in Experimental Canine Model with Coronary Thrombosis using Rb-82 Dynamic Myocardial Positron Emission Tomography (실험 개에서 Rb-82 심근 Dynamic PET 영상을 이용한 국소 심근 혈류 예측의 기본 모델 연구)

  • Kwark, Cheol-Eun;Lee, Dong-Soo;Kang, Keon-Wook;Hwang, Eun-Kyung;Jeong, Jae-Min;Chang, Kee-Hyun;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Seo, Joung-Don;Koh, Chang-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.48-53
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    • 1995
  • This study investigates a simple mathematical model for the quantitative estimation of regional myocardial blood flow in experimental canine coronary artery thrombosis using Rb-82 dynamic myocardial positron emission tomography. The coronary thrombosis was induced using the new catheter technique by narrowing the lumen of coronary vessel gradually, which finally led to partial obstruction of coronary artery. Ten Rb-82 dynamic myocardial PET scans were performed sequentially for each experiment using our 5, 10 and 20 second acquisition protocol, respectively, and three regions of interest were drawn on the transaxial slices, one on left ventricular chamber for input function and the other two on normal and decreased perfusion segments for the flow estimation in those regions. Single compartment model has been applied to the measured sets of regional PET data, and the rate constants of influx to myocardial tissue were calculated for regional myocardial flow estimates with the three parameter fits of raw data by the Levenberg-Marquardt method. The results showed that, (1) single compartment model suggested by Kety-Schmidt could be used for the simple estimation of regional myocardial blood flow, (2) the calculated regional myocardial blood flow estimates were dependent on the selection of input function, which reflected partial volume effect and left ventricular wall motion, and (3) mathematically fitted input and tissue time activity curves were more suitable than the direct application of the measured data in terms of convergence.

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Abnormal Behavior Detection Based on Adaptive Background Generation for Intelligent Video Analysis (지능형 비디오 분석을 위한 적응적 배경 생성 기반의 이상행위 검출)

  • Lee, Seoung-Won;Kim, Tae-Kyung;Yoo, Jang-Hee;Paik, Joon-Ki
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2011
  • Intelligent video analysis systems require techniques which can predict accidents and provide alarms to the monitoring personnel. In this paper, we present an abnormal behavior analysis technique based on adaptive background generation. More specifically, abnormal behaviors include fence climbing, abandoned objects, fainting persons, and loitering persons. The proposed video analysis system consists of (i) background generation and (ii) abnormal behavior analysis modules. For robust background generation, the proposed system updates static regions by detecting motion changes at each frame. In addition, noise and shadow removal steps are also were added to improve the accuracy of the object detection. The abnormal behavior analysis module extracts object information, such as centroid, silhouette, size, and trajectory. As the result of the behavior analysis function objects' behavior is configured and analyzed based on the a priori specified scenarios, such as fence climbing, abandoning objects, fainting, and loitering. In the experimental results, the proposed system was able to detect the moving object and analyze the abnormal behavior in complex environments.

Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Based Direction-of-Arrival Estimation of Multiple Sound Sources Using Dual Microphone Array (이중 마이크로폰을 이용한 비음수 행렬분해 기반 다중음원 도래각 예측)

  • Jeon, Kwang Myung;Kim, Hong Kook;Yu, Seung Woo
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes a new nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) based direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation method for multiple sound sources using a dual microphone array. First of all, sound signals coming from the dual microphone array are segmented into consecutive analysis frames, and a steered-response power phase transform (SRP-PHAT) beamformer is applied to each frame so that stereo signals of each frame are represented in a time-direction domain. The time-direction outputs of SRP-PHAT are stored for a pre-defined number of frames, which is referred to as a time-direction block. Next, In order to estimate DOAs robust to noise, each time-direction block is normalized along the time by using a block subtraction technique. After that, an unsupervised NMF method is applied to the normalized time-direction block in order to cluster the directions of each sound source in a multiple sound source environments. In particular, the activation and basis matrices are used to estimate the number of sound sources and their DOAs, respectively. The DOA estimation performance of the proposed method is evaluated by measuring a mean absolute error (MAE) and the standard deviation of errors between the oracle and estimated DOAs under a three source condition, where the sources are located in [$-35{\circ}$, 5m], [$12{\circ}$, 4m], and [$38{\circ}$, 4.m] from the dual microphone array. It is shown from the experiment that the proposed method could relatively reduce MAE by 56.83%, compared to a conventional SRP-PHAT based DOA estimation method.

Estimation of kerosene demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Dong-Won;Hwang, Byoung-Soh;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

The Robust Skin Color Correction Method in Distorted Saturation by the Lighting (조명에 의한 채도 왜곡에 강건한 피부 색상 보정 방법)

  • Hwang, Dae-Dong;Lee, Keunsoo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1414-1419
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    • 2015
  • A method for detecting a skin region on the image is generally used to detect the color information. However, If saturation lowered, skin detection is difficult because hue information of the pixels is lost. So in this paper, we propose a method of correcting color of lower saturation of skin region images by the lighting. Color correction process of this method is saturation image acquisition and low-saturation region classification, segmentation, and the saturation of the split in the low saturation region extraction and color values, the color correction sequence. This method extracts the low saturation regions in the image and extract the color and saturation in the region and the surrounding region to produce a color similar to the original color. Therefore, the method of extracting the low saturation region should be correctly preceding. Because more accurate segmentation in the process of obtaining a low saturation regions, we use a multi-threshold method proposed Otsu in Hue values of the HSV color space, and create a binary image. Our experimental results for 170 portrait images show a possibility that the proposed method could be used efficiently preprocessing of skin color detection method, because the detection result of proposed method is 5.8% higher than not used it.

Global Patterns of Pigment Concentration, Cloud Cover, and Sun Glint: Application to the OSMI Data Collection Planning (색소농도, 운량 및 태양반사의 전구분포 : OSMI 자료수집계획에 대한 응용)

  • Yongseung Kim;Chiho Kang;Hyo-Suk Lim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 1998
  • To establish a monthly data collection planning for the Ocean Scanning Multispectral Imager (OSMI), we have examined the global patterns of three impacting factors: pigment concentration, cloud cover, and sun glint. Other than satellite mission constraints (e.g., duty cycle), these three factors are considered critical for the OSMI data collection. The Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) monthly mean products and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) monthly mean products (C2) were used for the analysis of pigment concentration and cloud cover distributions, respectively. And the monthly-simulated patterns of sun glint were produced by performing the OSMI orbit prediction and the calculation of sun glint radiances at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). Using monthly statistics (mean and/or standard deviation) of each factor in the above for a given 10$^{\circ}$ latitude by 10$^{\circ}$ longitude grid, we generated the priority map for each month. The priority maps of three factors for each month were subsequently superimposed to visualize the impact of three factors in all. The initial results illustrated that a large part of oceans in the summer hemisphere was classified into the low priority regions because of seasonal changes of clouds and sun illumination. Sensitivity tests for different sets of classifications were performed and demonstrated the seasonal effects of clouds and sun glint to be robust.

Stress Intensity Factor of Cracked Plates with Bonded Composite Patch by p-Convergence Based Laminated Plate Theory (p-수렴 적층 평판이론에 의한 균열판의 팻취보강후 응력확대계수 산정)

  • Woo, Kwang-Sung;Han, Sang-Hyun;Yang, Seung-Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5A
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    • pp.649-656
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    • 2008
  • The enhancement of the service life of damaged or cracked structures is a major issue for researchers and engineers. The hierarchic void element based on the integrals of Legendre polynomials is used to characterize the fracture behaviour of unpatched crack as well as repaired crack with bonded composite patches by computing the stress intensity factors and stress contours at the crack tip. Since the equivalent single layer approach is adopted in this study, the proposed element is necessary to represent a discontinuous crack part as a continuum body with zero stiffness. Thus the aspect ratio of this element to represent the crack should be extremely slender. The sensitivity of numerical solution with respect to energy release rate, displacement and stress has been tested to show the robustness of zero stiffness element as the aspect ratio is increased up to 2000. The stiffness derivative method and displacement extrapolation method have been applied to calculate the stress intensity factors of Mode I problem. It is noted that the proposed hierarchical void element can be one of alternatives to analyze the patched crack problems.