• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가중회귀분석

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A Geospatial Evaluation of Potential Sea Effects on Observed Air Temperature (해안지대 기온에 미치는 바다효과의 공간분석)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin-I.;Chung, U-Ran;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.217-224
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to quantify potential effects of the surrounding ocean on the observed air temperature at coastal weather stations in the Korean Peninsula. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 2001-2009 were collected from 66 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and the monthly averages were calculated for further analyses. Monthly data from 27 inland sites were used to generate a gridded temperature surface for the whole Peninsula based on an inverse distance weighting and the local temperature at the remaining 39 sites were estimated by recent techniques in geospatial climatology which are widely used in correction of small - scale climate controls like cold air drainage, urban heat island, topography as well as elevation. Deviations from the observed temperature were regarded as the 'apparent' sea effect and showed a quasi-logarithmic relationship with the distance of each site from the nearest coastline. Potential effects of the sea on daily temperature might exceed $6.0^{\circ}C$ cooling in summer and $6.5^{\circ}C$ warming in winter according to this relationship. We classified 25 sites within the 10 km distance from the nearest coastline into 'coastal sites' and the remaining 15 'fringe sites'. When the average deviations of the fringe sites ($0.5^{\circ}C$ for daily maximum and $1.0^{\circ}C$ for daily minimum temperature) were used as the 'noise' and subtracted from the 'apparent' sea effects of the coastal sites, maximum cooling effects of the sea were identified as $1.5^{\circ}C$ on the west coast and $3.0^{\circ}C$ on the east and the south coast in summer months. The warming effects of the sea in winter ranged from $1.0^{\circ}C$ on the west and $3.5^{\circ}C$ on the south and east coasts.

An Experimental Study for Flexural Characteristic of Concrete Beam Reinforced with FRP Rebar under Static and Fatigue (FRP 보강근을 사용한 콘크리트 휨부재의 정적 및 피로특성에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Sim, Jong-Sung;Park, Sung-Jae;Kang, Tae-Sung;Kwon, Dong-Wook;Lee, Ki-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.313-316
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    • 2008
  • Corrosion of steel in the reinforced concrete structures is one of the main reason of degradation. It causes that lifetime of structures is shortened and maintenance cost is increased. And it also causes degradation of structures like bridges which are under repeated load. So, many research have been performed about FRP rebar. But there are few research about FRP rebar under fatigue. This study is to examine flexural characteristic of concrete beam reinforced with FRP(CFRP, GFRP) rebar under static and fatigue for considering the application. The specimens that used in this study are designed by ACI 440.1R-06 and reinforced with CFRP(CR) or GFRP(GR) overly. In the result of static bending test, all specimens were failed at compression phase. In fatigue test, the fatigue stress level was 60%, 70% or 80% of the static bending strength. Most of the specimens seemed to be compressive failure, but CR-60 and CR-70 specimens were failed with rupturing of tension bar.

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Application of a Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Analysis to Explore Spatial Varying Relationship Between Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Incidence and Associated Determinants (공간가중 포아송 회귀모형을 이용한 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생에 영향을 미치는 결정인자의 공간이질성 분석)

  • Choi, Sung-Hyun;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2019
  • In South Korea, six large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have occurred since the first confirmation in 2003 from chickens. For the past 15 years, HPAI outbreaks have become an annual phenomenon throughout the country and has extended to wider regions, across rural and urban environments. An understanding of the spatial epidemiology of HPAI occurrence is essential in assessing and managing the risk of the infection; however, local spatial variations of relationship between HPAI incidences in Korea and related risk factors have rarely been derived. This study examined whether spatial heterogeneity exists in this relationship, using a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model. The outcome variable was the number of HPAI-positive farms at 252 Si-Gun-Gu (administrative boundaries in Korea) level notified to government authority during the period from January 2014 to April 2016. This response variable was regressed to a set of sociodemographic and topographic predictors, including the number of wild birds infected with HPAI virus, the number of wintering birds and their species migrated into Korea, the movement frequency of vehicles carrying animals, the volume of manure treated per day, the number of livestock farms, and mean elevation. Both global and local modeling techniques were employed to fit the model. From 2014 to 2016, a total of 403 HPAI-positive farms were reported with high incidence especially in western coastal regions, ranging from 0 to 74. The results of this study show that local model (adjusted R-square = 0.801, AIC = 954.5) has great advantages over corresponding global model (adjusted R-square = 0.408, AIC = 2323.1) in terms of model fitting and performance. The relationship between HPAI incidence in Korea and seven predictors under consideration were significantly spatially non-stationary, contrary to assumptions in the global model. The comparison between global Poisson and GWPR results indicated that a place-specific spatial analysis not only fit the data better, but also provided insights into understanding the non-stationarity of the associations between the HPAI and associated determinants. We demonstrated that an empirically derived GWPR model has the potential to serve as a useful tool for assessing spatially varying characteristics of HPAI incidences for a given local area and predicting the risk area of HPAI occurrence. Considering the prominent burden of HPAI this study provides more insights into spatial targeting of enhanced surveillance and control strategies in high-risk regions against HPAI outbreaks.

A Study on the Effect of Benefit Limit Measure on the likelihood of the late payers of paying missed health insurance premium: The Case of Korea (건강보험료 체납자에 대한 급여제한 사전통지제도의 효과성 분석)

  • Cho, Byong-Hee;Yoo, Taekyun;Yun, Seong-Won
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.421-450
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    • 2013
  • One of the challenging tasks of the National Health Insurance Corporation(NHIC). the only public insurance institution administrating the Korea's compulsory national health insurance(NHI) system, is to make those NHI beneficiaries who fail to make a scheduled monthly premium payment to pay. For this purpose, the NHIC has been using a measure known as 'Benefit Limit Measure(BLM)' in which those who miss premium payment for six or more month's in total are classified as 'late payer' and are sent warnings and late payer status notices. If the late payers fail to make a full payment of missed premiums even after receiving the written notices, the NHIC can order a temporary seizure of the late payer's property until all missed premiums plus interest are paid. Recently, the BLM has been criticized by the public of its cruel nature, and its effectiveness has been questioned because no empirical evidence has been collected. In this study, the authors using the NHIC data set attempted to analyze the effectiveness of the BLM. Those late payers for whom the BLM was administered were compared to those not in terms of the likelihood of paying missed premium payments with a series of logistic regression analyses models. Data analyses results showed that the likelihood of paying one or more month's unpaid premium of the former group was 14 to 46 times higher than the latter. It, however, was also found that the BLM was only effective to make no more than 12% of the late payers to pay at all. Based on the study findings, the authors made a few recommendations regarding the BLM.

A Comprehensive Approach to Model Development -The Effect of U.S. Retail Employees' Work Experiences on Job Performance, Job Satisfaction, and Retail Career Intention- (연구모델 개발의 포괄적 접근 -미국 소매업 종사자의 직무 경험이 소매업 직업 성과와 직업 만족 그리고 소매업 직업 선택의도에 미치는 영향-)

  • Kim, Hae-Jung;Crutsinger, Christy;Knight, Dee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.29 no.12 s.148
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    • pp.1571-1581
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    • 2005
  • In a highly competitive marketplace, U.S. retailers are challenged to attract, recruit, and retain a skilled workforce. The purpose of our research was to examine the impact of young retail employees' work experiences on their job performance, job satisfaction, and career intention using a comprehensive approach to model development. The model was developed in three phases over a four-year period using both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. During Phase 1, we conducted focus group interviews to guide the development of the questionnaire. Work experience was initially operationalized as role conflict, role ambiguity, supervisory support, and work involvement. Using a student sample(n=470) from U.S. universities, we employed multiple regression to determine the significance of relationships between their work experience, job satisfaction, and retail career intention. During Phase 2, we expanded our investigation to include retail work experiences of teens employed while they were in high school. The teen sample(n=898) was drawn from students enrolled in work-study programs in 16 U.S. high schools, and data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (hereafter SEM). During Phase 3, we expanded our model to include two new variables, job characteristics and job performance. Based on a national sample(n=803) of U.S. university students, we employed SEM to holistically determine if retail employees' work experience impacted their job performance, job satisfaction, and retail career intention. During each phase, job satisfaction consistently was the superior antecedent of retail career intention. Among the work experience variables, supervisory support had a positive impact on job satisfaction, while role conflict, role ambiguity, and work involvement exhibited inconsistent effects on job outcomes. The strong relationship between job satisfaction and retail career intention should make job satisfaction a priority for retailers.

A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

Agroclimatology of North Korea for Paddy Rice Cultivation: Preliminary Results from a Simulation Experiment (생육모의에 의한 북한지방 시ㆍ군별 벼 재배기후 예비분석)

  • Yun Jin-Il;Lee Kwang-Hoe
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.47-61
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    • 2000
  • Agroclimatic zoning was done for paddy rice culture in North Korea based on a simulation experiment. Daily weather data for the experiment were generated by 3 steps consisting of spatial interpolation based on topoclimatological relationships, zonal summarization of grid cell values, and conversion of monthly climate data to daily weather data. Regression models for monthly climatological temperature estimation were derived from a statistical procedure using monthly averages of 51 standard weather stations in South and North Korea (1981-1994) and their spatial variables such as latitude, altitude, distance from the coast, sloping angle, and aspect-dependent field of view (openness). Selected models (0.4 to 1.6$^{\circ}C$ RMSE) were applied to the generation of monthly temperature surface over the entire North Korean territory on 1 km$\times$l km grid spacing. Monthly precipitation data were prepared by a procedure described in Yun (2000). Solar radiation data for 27 North Korean stations were reproduced by applying a relationship found in South Korea ([Solar Radiation, MJ m$^{-2}$ day$^{-1}$ ] =0.344 + 0.4756 [Extraterrestrial Solar Irradiance) + 0.0299 [Openness toward south, 0 - 255) - 1.307 [Cloud amount, 0 - 10) - 0.01 [Relative humidity, %), $r^2$=0.92, RMSE = 0.95 ). Monthly solar irradiance data of 27 points calculated from the reproduced data set were converted to 1 km$\times$1 km grid data by inverse distance weighted interpolation. The grid cell values of monthly temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation were summed up to represent corresponding county, which will serve as a land unit for the growth simulation. Finally, we randomly generated daily maximum and minimum temperature, solar irradiance and precipitation data for 30 years from the monthly climatic data for each county based on a statistical method suggested by Pickering et a1. (1994). CERES-rice, a rice growth simulation model, was tuned to accommodate agronomic characteristics of major North Korean cultivars based on observed phenological and yield data at two sites in South Korea during 1995~1998. Daily weather data were fed into the model to simulate the crop status at 183 counties in North Korea for 30 years. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to score the suitability of the county for paddy rice culture.

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Development of Strategies to Improve Water Quality of the Yeongsan River in Connection with Adaptation to Climate Change (기후변화의 적응과 연계한 영산강 수질개선대책 개발)

  • Yong Woon Lee;Won Mo Yang;Gwang Duck Song;Yong Uk Ryu;Hak Young Lee
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2023
  • Almost all of the water from agricultural dams located to the upper of the Yeongsan river is supplied as irrigation water for farmland and thus is not discharged to the main stream of the river. Also, most of the irrigation water does not return to the river after use, adding to the lack of flow in the main stream. As a result, the water quality and aquatic health of the river have become the poorest among the four major rivers in Korea. Therefore, in this study, several strategies for water quality improvement of the river were developed considering pollution reduction and flow rate increase, and their effect analysis was performed using a water quality model. The results of this study showed that the target water quality of the Yeongsan river could be achieved if flow increase strategies (FISs) are intensively pursued in parallel with pollution reduction. The reason is because the water quality of the river has been steadily improved through pollution reduction but this method is now nearing the limit. In addition, rainfall-related FISs such as dam construction and water distribution adjustment may be less effective or lost if a megadrought continues due to climate change and then rainfall does not occur for a long time. Therefore, in the future, if the application conditions for the FISs are similar, the seawater desalination facility, which is independent of rainfall, should be considered as the priority installation target among the FISs. The reason is that seawater desalination facilities can replace the water supply function of dams, which are difficult to newly build in Korea, and can be useful as a climate change adaptation facility by preventing water-related disasters in the event of a long-term megadrought.