• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.7
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• pp.505-513
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• 2022

Recently, uncertainty in predicting available water resources is gradually increasing due to climate change and extreme weather conditions. Social interest in water management such as flood and drought prevention is also increasing, and after the unification of water management implemented in 2018, domestic water management is facing a major turning point. As part of such strengthening of water management capabilities, various studies are being conducted to utilize a hydropower dam for flood control and water supply purposes, which was mainly operated for hydroelectric power generation. However, since the dam evaluation methods developed based on a multi-purpose dam are being applied to hydropower dams, an additional evaluation approach that can consider the characteristics of hydropower dams is required. In this study, a new water supply capacity evaluation method is presented in consideration of the operational characteristics of hydropower dams in terms of water supply, and a connected reservoir simulation method is proposed to evaluate the comprehensive water supply capacity of a dam group operating in a river basin. The presented method was applied to the hydropower dams located in the Bukhan River basin, and the results of the water supply yield of individual dams and multi-reservoir systems were compared and analyzed. In the future, the role of hydropower dams for water supply during drought is expected to become more important, and this study can be used for sustainable domestic water management research using hydropower dams.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.1095-1106
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• 2008

Climate change and global warming are prevalent all over the world in this century and many researchers including hydrologists have studied on the climate change. This study also studied the impact of climate change on streamflows of a basin in Korea. The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of potential future climate change on the streamflows of the Daecheong Dam Basin. Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed on a monthly basis for the year of 1982-1995 and 1996-2005, respectively. The impact of seven 15-year(1988-2002) scenarios were then analyzed for comparing it to the baseline scenario. Among them, scenario 1 was set to show the result of doubling $CO_2$, scenario 2-6 were set to show the results of temperature and precipitation change, and scenario 7 was set to show the result of the combination of climatologic components. A doubling of atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration is predicted to result in an maximum monthly flow increase of 11 percent. Non-linear impacts were predicted among precipitation change scenarios of -42, -17, 17, and 42 percent, which resulted in average annual flow changes in Daecheong Dam Basin of -55, -24, 25, and 64 percent. The changes in streamflow indicate that the Daecheong Dam Basin is very sensitive to potential future climate changes and that these changes could stimulate the increased period or severity of flood or drought events.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.419-419
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• 2011

이상호우, 사막화, 빙하융해, 생태계 먹이사슬 변화, 이상기온 등 기후변화의 행태는 지구 곳곳에서 다양하게 발발되고 있으며 그로인해 발생되는 인적 물적 피해가 심각하다. 1996년 집중호우에 의한 연천댐체 파괴, 2002년 8월의 낙동강 유역 장기홍수, 2002년 태풍 루사 및 2003년 태풍 매미 등 국내에서는 기후변화 중에서도 주로 이상호우로 인해 발생하는 피해가 많았으며 이들은 주기성이나 특성을 갖지 않아 예측이 어려운 관계로 망양보뢰 식의 후처리에 급급한 실정이었다. 최근 기후변화에 따른 지역별 홍수량, 가뭄량 등에 관한 연구가 가속화되고 있으며, 이와 더불어 해당 기후모델 발현 시 기존 구조물에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구도 필수적이다. 나아가 기존 구조물 뿐 아니라 새로 시공되는 구조물의 설계에서 기후변화에 대한 안정성을 위해 추가적으로 포함해야 할 요소가 있는지에 대한 연구도 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 가상 기후모델에 대해 그 모델이 예측하는 홍수량이 실제 발현되었을 경우를 가정하여, 기존 수공구조물의 안정성에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고 영향인자의 민감도를 분석하고자 한다. 대상 수공구조물은 붕괴 시 영향력이 큰 정도를 기준으로 필댐, 콘크리트차수벽형석괴댐(CFRD), 콘크리트중력식댐, 제방으로 그 범주를 제한 하였으며 대상유역은 한강으로 가정하였다. 구조물의 안정성 검토방법은 각 구조물의 종류에 따라 상이하다. 흙이 주 재료인 제방과 필댐의 경우, 침투(Piping)와 비탈면(Sliding)에 대한 안정성 평가가 이루어지며 CFRD는 댐체와 벽체로 나누어 안정성평가를 하며 댐체 안정성 평가방법은 필댐과 유사하다. 본 연구에서는 하천설계기준(2009)과 댐설계기준(2005)에 따라 각 구조물의 기준안전율을 책정하였으며 점착력, 내부마찰각, 단위중량 등의 물성치는 해당 지역의 토질특성에 따라 여러 문헌을 참고하여 설정하였고 이를 SEEP/W, SLOPE/W 프로그램을 이용하여 구조해석을 실시하였다. 콘크리트중력식댐은 활동, 전도, 지지력에 대해 각각 안정성을 평가하며 MIDAS와 ABAQUS 프로그램을 병행하여 해석하였다. 민감도(Sensitivity)란 안정성에 영향을 미치는 설계인자들의 변화에 따라 안정성이 어떻게 변화하는 지를 말한다. 기후변화에 의한 수공구조물 설계인자 민감도 연구를 통해 기존 설계과정 또는 안정성 검토 시 해당인자의 기여도를 높이거나 새로운 설계인자를 추가하여 미래 상황에 대한 구조물의 위험 정도를 과거대비 상세히 예측할 수 있으며 나아가 적절한 대응 방안 제시에 기여하여 기후변화에 따른 피해를 감소할 수 있을 것이라고 생각된다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.511-519
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• 2001

Global warming has begun since the industrial revolution and it is getting worse recently. Even though the increase of greenhouse gases such as $CO_2$is thought to be the main cause for glogal warming, its impact on global climate has not been revealed clearly in rather quantitative manners. The objective of this research is to predict the hydrological environment changes in the Daechung Dam basin due to the global warming. A mesoscale atmospheric/hydrologic model (IRSHAM96 model) is used to predict the possible changes in precipitation and temperature in the Daechun Dam basin. The simulation results of IRSHAM96 model and a conceptual water balance model are used to analyze the changes in soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff in the Daechung Dam basin. From the simulation results using the water balance model for 1x$CO_2$and 2x$CO_2$situations, it has been found that the runoff would be decreased in dry season, but increased in wet season due to the global warming. Therefore, it is predicted that the frequency of drought and flood occurrences in the Daechung Dam basin would be increased in 2x$CO_2$condition.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-358
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• 2015

Impacts of climate change are being observed in the globe as well as the Korean peninsula. In the past 100 years, the average temperature of the earth rose about 0.75 degree in celsius, while that of Korean peninsula rose about 1.5 degree in celsius. The fifth Assessment Report of IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) predicts that the water pollution will be aggravated by change of hydrologic extremes such as floods and droughts and increase of water temperature (KMA and MOLIT, 2009). In this study, future runoff was calculated by applying climate change scenario to analyze the future water quality for each targe period (Obs : 2001 ~ 2010, Target I : 2011 ~ 2040, Target II : 2041 ~ 2070, Target III : 2071 ~ 2100) in Hongcheon river basin, Korea. In addition, The future water quality was analyzed by using multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural networks after flow-duration curve analysis. As the results of future water quality prediction in Hongcheon river basin, we have known that BOD, COD and SS will be increased at the end of 21 century. Therefore, we need consider long-term water and water quality management planning and monitoring for the improvement of water quality in the future. For the prediction of more reliable future water quality, we may need consider various social factors with climate components.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.25-37
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• 2022

Climate change is becoming increasingly unpredictable. This has led to changes in various systems such as ecosystems, human life and hydrological cycles. In particular, the recent unpredictable climate change frequently causes extreme droughts and torrential rains, resulting in complex water resources disasters that cause water pollution due to inundation and retirement rather than primary disasters. SWAT was used as a watershed model to analyze future runoff and pollutant loads. The climate scenario analyzed the RCP4.5 climate scenario of the Meteorological Agency standard scenario (HadGEM3-RA) using the normal quantitative mapping method. Runoff and pollutant load analysis were performed by linkage simulation of climate scenario and watershed model. Finally, the results of application and verification of linkage model and analysis of future water quality change due to climate change were presented. In this study, we simulated climate change scenarios using artificial neural networks, analyzed changes in water temperature and turbidity, and compared the results of dams with artificial neural network results through W2 model, a reservoir water quality model. The results of this study suggest the possibility of applying the nonlinearity and simplicity of neural network model to Hapcheon dam water quality prediction using climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.14-14
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• 2023

산업발전에 따른 인구증가, 기후위기에 따른 가뭄 및 물 부족심화, 그리고 수질오염 등은 2015년 제79차 UN총회의 물 안보측면에서 국제사회의 물 분야 위기관리를 위해 2030년을 지속가능한 발전 목표(Sustainable Development Goals)로 하였다. 또한, 현재 물 산업은 빠르게 성장하고 있으며, 2016년 세계경제포럼(World Economic Forum) 의장 클라우스 슈밥(Klaus Schwab)부터 주창된 제4차 산업혁명로 인해 현재 물 산업의 패러다임 또한 급속히 변화하고 있다. 이는 컴퓨터를 기반으로 하는 CPS(Cyber Physical System) 및 DT(Digital Twin) 연계 분석방식의 혁신을 일컫는다. 2002년경에 DT의 기본개념이 제시되었고, 2006년경에는 Embedded System에서의 DT와 같은 개념으로 CPS의 용어가 등장했다. DT는 현실세계에 존재하는 사물, 시스템, 환경 등을 S/W시스템의 가상공간에 동일하게 모사(Virtualization) 및 모의(Simulation)할 수 있도록 하고, 모의결과를 가상시스템으로 현실세계를 최적화 체계 구현 기술을 말한다. DT의 6가지 기능은 ① 실제 데이터(Live Data), ② 모사, ③ 분석정보(Analytics), ④ 모의, ⑤ 예측(Predictions), ⑥ 자동화(Automation) 이다. 또한, CPS는 대규모 센서 및 액추에이터(Actuator)를 가지는 물리적 요소와 이를 실시간으로 제어하는 컴퓨팅 요소가 결합된 복합시스템을 말한다. CPS는 물리세계에서 발생하는 변화를 감지할 수 있는 다양한 센서를 통해 환경인지 기능을 수행한다. 센서로부터 수집된 정보와 물리세계를 재현 및 투영하는 고도화된 시스템 모델들을 기반으로 사이버 물리공간을 인지·분석·예측할 수 있다. CPS의 6가지 구성요소는 ① 상호 운용성(Interoperability), ② 가상화(Virtualization), ③ 분산화(Decentralization), ④ 실시간(Real-time Capability), ⑤ 서비스 오리엔테이션(Service Orientation), ⑥ 모듈화(Modularity)이다. DT와 CPS는 본질적으로 같은 목적, 내용, 그리고 결과를 만들어내고자 하는 같은 종류의 기술이라고 할 수 있다. CPS 및 DT는 물리세계에서 발생하는 변화를 감지할 수 있으며, 토양-지하수 센서를 포함한 관측기술을 통해 환경인지 기능을 수행한다. 지하수 관측기술로부터 수집된 정보와 물리세계를 재현 및 투영하는 고도화된 시스템 모델들을 기반으로 사이버 물리공간 및 디지털 트윈 공간을 인지·분석·예측할 수 있다. CPS 및 DT의 기본 요소들을 실현시키는 것은 양질의 데이터를 모니터링할 수 있는 정확하고 정밀한 1차원 연직 프로파일링 관측기술이며, 이를 토대로 한 수자원 관련 빅데이터의 증가, 빅데이터의 저장과 분석을 가능하게 하는 플랫폼의 개발이다. 본 연구는 CPS 및 DT 기반 토양수분-지하수 관측기술을 이용한 지표수-지하수 연계, 지하수 순환 및 관리, 정수 운영 및 진단프로그램 개발을 위한 토양수분-지하수 관측장치를 지하수 플랫폼 동시성과 디지털 트윈 시뮬레이터 시스템 개발 방향으로 제시하고자 한다.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.61-70
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• 2022

This study evaluates the economic values for the several first precipitation events during Changma period. The selected three years are 2015, 2019, and 2020, where average precipitation amounts across the 58 Korean stations are 12.8, 20.1 and 13.3 mm, respectively. The four categories are used to assess the values including air quality improvement, water resource acquisition/accumulation, drought mitigation, and forest fire prevention/recovery. Economic values for these three years are estimated 50~150 billion won. Among the four factors considered, the effect of air quality improvement is most highly valued, amounting to 70 to 90% of the total economic values. Wet decomposition of air pollution (PM₁₀, NO₂, CO, and SO₂) is the primary reason. The next valuable element is water resource acquisition, which is estimated 9~15 billion won. Effects of drought mitigation and fire prevention are deemed relatively small. This study is the first to estimate the value of the precipitation events during Changma onset. An analysis for more Changma years will be performed to achieve a more reliable estimate.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.271-281
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• 2015

The objectives of this study are to develop a hydrological drought outlook system using GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system 5) which has recently been used by KMA (Korea Meteorological Association) and to evaluate the forecasting capability. For drought analysis, the bilinear interpolation method was applied to spatially downscale the low-resolution outputs of GloSea5 and PR (Predicted Runoff) was produced for different lead times (i.e., 1-, 2-, 3-month) running LSM (Land Surface Model). The behavior of PR anomaly was similar to that of HR (Historical Runoff) and the estimated values were negative up to lead times of 1- and 2-month. For the evaluation of drought outlook, SRI (Standardized Runoff Index) was selected and PR_SRI estimated using PR. ROC score was 0.83, 0.71, 0.60 for 1-, 2- and 3-month lead times, respectively. It also showed the hit rate is high and false alarm rate is low as shorter lead time. The temporal Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 0.82, 0.60, 0.31 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 0.52, 0.86, 1.20 for 1-, 2-, 3-month lead time, respectively. The accuracy of PR_SRI was high up to 1- and 2-month lead time on local regions except the Gyeonggi and Gangwon province. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has high applicability for hydrological drought outlook.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.176-183
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• 2018

Climate change, rapid urbanization, and population concentration have led to a higher frequency and magnitude of disasters in the world. Recently, the occurrence of large-scale complex disasters, which are caused by a combination of natural disasters, man-made disasters, and social disasters, is increasing. In Korea, there are many case studies of damage prediction and response technology development for individual natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and typhoons. On the other hand, the system basis for the efficient response and management of large-scale complex disasters is insufficient. Therefore, this study examined the representative cases of natural, social disasters, and related cases of domestic disaster response management systems. In addition, this paper proposes ways to improve the legal system for complex disaster management policies and establish a cooperation system between the ministries for an efficient response.