• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.379-384
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of individual savings banks' financial conditions on their loan portfolio after savings bank restructuring. The analysis results are as follows. First, it was estimated that the relationship between the rate of change in the NPL Ratio and the ratio of household loans has a significant positive value. Second, it was estimated that the interaction effect between the rate of change in the ratio of fixed and below loans and the spread of the deposit-to-deposit rate has a significant negative (-) value with the household loan weight. Third, the relationship between the asset size and the proportion of household loans was estimated to have a significant positive (+) value. In other words, it was analyzed that the financial situation of the savings bank affects the loan portfolio, and it should provide important implications for establishing policies for each financial situation of the savings bank. Depending on the financial situation in the future, there is a need to avoid excessive asset expansion of specific loans and preemptive soundness management.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.47-52
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to identify the risk level of Chinese commercial banks' loan assets and to analyze what factors affect the stability of Chinese commercial banks. In addition, Chinese commercial banks are classified based on the asset size of 200 billion yuan, and the difference in stability according to size is investigated. The analysis results are as follows. First, it was estimated that as the proportion of household and corporate loans of commercial banks in China increased, the stability of banks decreased. Although the Chinese financial authorities are currently restricting the conservative management of loan assets, it will be necessary to preemptively manage risk on loan assets by setting an appropriate standard for loan-to-deposit ratio in the future. Second, as a result of analyzing the stability of large banks based on 200 billion yuan of bank assets, it was estimated that the stability of large banks was lower. As large banks are likely to conduct aggressive loan asset management, continuous management of non-performing assets is required in the future. This study will serve as a measure for improving the stability of commercial banks in China by estimating the effect of loan asset management of Chinese commercial banks on financial stability. In particular, by examining the stability of large banks, a strategy for sustainable development of the financial industry is required by diagnosing the weaknesses of large banks.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.19-34
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• 2022

There are growing concerns about debt insolvency among youth and low-income households. The deterioration in household debt quality among young people is due to a combination of sluggish employment, an increase in student loan burden and an increase in high-interest loans from the secondary financial sector. The purpose of this study was to explore the possibility of household debt default among young borrowers in Korea and to predict the factors affecting this possibility. This study utilized the 2021 Household Finance and Welfare Survey and used random forest algorithm to comprehensively analyze factors related to the possibility of default risk among young adults. This study presented the importance index and partial dependence charts of major determinants. This study found that the ratio of debt to assets(DTA), medical costs, household default risk index (HDRI), communication costs, and housing costs the focal independent variables.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.259-269
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• 2014

After global financial crisis, the ratio of household debt to GDP was decreasing in other advanced countries such as the U.S., and the U.K. and so on. But, in Korea, household debt (of which residential mortgage loan account for a large part) ratio is still increasing. This paper focuses on the scale and characteristics of households in negative housing equity (those are called House-poors in Korea), and also the socio-economic backgrounds of the formation process. In financial perspective, the problem of negative housing equity depends on financial debt repayment capability. We used DSR (Debt Service Ratio) and LTA (Loan to Asset ratio) as financial indicators to evaluate the debt repayment capability. The critical value of DSR is assumed as 40%, and LTA 100%. The socio-economic backgrounds of the House-poors are as follows : increasing households debt dependency, over lending competition of financial institutions and unreasonable loan in household economy, instability of real estate market, week regulation on mortgage loan. Finally, this paper suggests some implications about the range and the target of public intervention.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.3-54
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• 2003

This paper studies the effects of the special surcharge on deposits, proposed as a plan to finance the costs of restructuring Korean corporate and financial sectors. Specifically, the study analyzes the change in the autonomous behavior of economic agents in terms of cost transfer and substitution effects. Given the result that the growth rate of deposits does not respond to the change of interest rates so much as that of loans, financial institutions have more incentive to transfer the costs incurred by the special surcharge to depositors. This paper also reports that the portfolio of households show a noteworthy feature that insured deposits have a relatively small portion in terms of total assets for high-asset class households, whereas most assets for low-asset class households are subject to the special surcharge.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.6315-6324
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• 2015

This study analyses the effects of household finances on rental price of apartment in Seoul which play a major role in real estate policy. We estimate VAR models using time series data. Economy variables such as sales price of apartment in Seoul, consumer price index, hiring rate, real GNI and loan amount of housing mortgage, which relate to household finances and influence the rental price of apartment, are used for estimation. The main findings are as follows. In the short term, the rental price of apartment is impacted by economy variables. Specifically, Relative contributions of variation in rental price of apartment through structural shock of economy variables are most influenced by their own. However, in the long term, household variables are more influential to the rental price of apartment. These results are expected to contribute to establish housing price stabilization policies through understanding the relationship between economy variables and rental price of apartment.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1-34
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• 2010

We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.534-549
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• 2012

This study analyzed the effects of housing wealth on the balance accounts of elderly households with an age of over 60 facing the asset decumulation period, capitalizing upon an ordered logit model for the 2011 household finance survey data. Out of some variables representing personal and social characteristics, the age and waged worker variables had a positive effect, but the number of household, low education level, living in the apartment and capital region variables negatively affected the balance accounts of elderly households. Some variables reflecting economic wealth and financial strategies such as the attitude of risk-taking, ordinary income and the ratio of financial assets had a positive impact, but other variables such as DSR did a negative one on the balance accounts of the elderly households. The ownership of housing wealth variable positively, but the ratio of housing assets variable negatively affected the balance accounts of the elderly households, which could be derived from the duality of housing as both consumption goods and assets. However, the ownership of other real estates and the ratio of them in the total assets variables had a negative impact on the balance accounts of the elderly households. Furthermore, since the financial asset-debt ratio worsened the balance accounts of the elderly households with both housing and other real estates, it is implied that the purchase of real estates with excessive bank loans could make them dangerous.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.1-7
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• 2021

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of household loan share on bank management soundness. The results of the empirical analysis are summarized as follows. First, as a result of estimating coefficient of the mortgage loan ratio shows a significant negative relationship with the BIS equity capital ratio of banks. In addition, it was found that the mortgage loan ratio had a significant positive (+) effect on Eunhae's BIS and equity capital ratio after the financial crisis. Second, as a result of the estimation coefficient of the mortgage ratio showed a significant positive (+) relationship with the NPL of the bank and below. In addition, it is estimated that the bank's secured loan ratio changed significantly before and after the financial crisis in the effect of banks' NPL and substandard-and-below loans. It is expected to make implication to financial policy and banking regulation and supervision. We believe that more efforts should be made to increase the soundness of household loans in preparation for risk factors that may arise from exogenous factors such as changes in the international financial environment and falling property prices.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.128-136
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• 2012

In this study, we investigated the macroeconomic variables that affect housing prices thus creating a large impact on people's lives as well as the real estate market. For the study, the macroeconomic variables able to influence the House Rental Price (housing price by lease or deposit) were used for an analysis as follows: housing sales price index, household loans rate, total household savings, the number of employees and a multiple regression analysis was performed using a time series for each macroeconomic variable. As a result of the analysis, the House Rental Price was affected by all of four macroeconomic variables. The House Rental Price increased as each variable enlarged. In conclusion, this study may be useful for finding a solution for stabilizing the House Rental Price as well as for the establishment of efficient and sustainable policies for the housing market.