The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology (문화기술의 융합)

The International Promotion Agency of Culture Technology (국제문화기술진흥원)
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Analysis on Default Risk of Loan Assets of Commercial Chinese Banks

중국 상업은행의 대출자산에 대한 부실위험 분석

  • 배수현 (대구가톨릭대학교 경영학과)
  • Received : 2022.01.10
  • Accepted : 2022.03.08
  • Published : 2022.03.31
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to identify the risk level of Chinese commercial banks' loan assets and to analyze what factors affect the stability of Chinese commercial banks. In addition, Chinese commercial banks are classified based on the asset size of 200 billion yuan, and the difference in stability according to size is investigated. The analysis results are as follows. First, it was estimated that as the proportion of household and corporate loans of commercial banks in China increased, the stability of banks decreased. Although the Chinese financial authorities are currently restricting the conservative management of loan assets, it will be necessary to preemptively manage risk on loan assets by setting an appropriate standard for loan-to-deposit ratio in the future. Second, as a result of analyzing the stability of large banks based on 200 billion yuan of bank assets, it was estimated that the stability of large banks was lower. As large banks are likely to conduct aggressive loan asset management, continuous management of non-performing assets is required in the future. This study will serve as a measure for improving the stability of commercial banks in China by estimating the effect of loan asset management of Chinese commercial banks on financial stability. In particular, by examining the stability of large banks, a strategy for sustainable development of the financial industry is required by diagnosing the weaknesses of large banks.

본 연구는 중국 상업은행의 대출자산에 대한 위험도를 확인하고, 중국 상업은행의 안정성에 영향을 주는 요인이 무엇인지 분석하고자 함이 목적이다. 또한 자산규모 2천억 위안을 기준으로 중국 상업은행을 구분하고, 규모에 따른 안정성의 차이를 규명한다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 중국 상업은행의 가계대출비중과 기업대출비중이 증가할수록 은행의 안정성은 낮아지는 것으로 추정되었다. 현재 중국 금융당국이 은행의 부실자산 비중을 낮추기 위해 대출자산을 보수적으로 운용하도록 제한하고 있으나, 향후 적정 예대율 기준을 설정하여 대출자산에 대한 선제적인 리스크 관리가 필요할 것이다. 둘째, 은행자산 2천억 위안을 기준으로 하여 대형은행의 안정성을 분석한 결과 규모가 큰 대형은행의 안정성이 더 낮은 것으로 추정되었다. 대형은행들은 대마불사의 원칙에 근거하여 공격적인 대출자산운용이 이루어질 가능성이 크므로 안정성이 더 낮아질 수 있는 만큼 앞으로 지속적인 부실자산에 대한 관리가 요구된다. 본 연구는 중국 상업은행의 대출자산 운용이 재무안정성에 미치는 영향을 추정함으로써 중국 상업은행들의 안정성 제고를 위한 바로미터가 될 것이라고 본다. 특히 대형은행들의 안정성을 규명해 봄으로써 대형은행의 취약점을 진단하여 지속가능한 금융산업 발전을 위한 전략이 요구됨을 시사한다.

Keywords

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