• Title/Summary/Keyword: 가격 예측

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A Study of Predictability of VKOSPI on the KOSPI200 Intraday Jumps using different Jump Size and Trading Time (점프발생 강도 및 거래시간에 따른 변동성지수의 KOSPI200 일중 점프 예측력에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Dae-Sung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.273-286
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated the information contents of KOSPI200 Options for intraday big market movement by using minute by minute data. The major findings are summarized as follows; First, big market movement occurred more frequently during 9:00~10:00 and 14:00~14:50. These phenomena reflect market unstability just after opening and near closing. Second, VKSOPI is most closely associated with extreme changes such as KOSPI200 jumps. Third, VKOSPI is showed more predictive power with negative KOSPI200 jumps than KOSPI200 jumps. Fourth, VKOSPI showed predictive power for the positive and negative jumps up to 30 minutes before the jumps occurs. The purpose of this study is to explore the most recent topics in the field of finance, research on market microstructure. This study is an important contribution to investigate intraday information comprehensively in terms of market microstructure effects using the 15-year long-term and the high-frequency data(minute by minute). The results of this study are expected to contribute to detect intraday true jumps, proactive development of market risk indicators, risk management, derivatives investment strategy.

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A Study on the Policies to improve the Escalating Regulations of Construction Price - With a Focus on Results of a Delphi Survey - (물가 변동에 따른 건설공사비 조정 제도의 개선 방안 - 델파이(Delphi) 설문 조사 결과를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi Min-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.6 s.22
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2004
  • This study is the results to survey on the problems and improvable Policies for current escalation system in construction contracts, through a Delphi survey to experts. From the survey results, it is desirable to decide the fluctuation rate of construction cost, which is the requirement of escalation clause, on the basis of inflation rate or construction cost index. The desirable price fluctuation rate is proposed as a $3\%$ level. However, it is difficult for construction companies to cope with the sudden increase of material price in advance, arising from short-term shock factors such as exchange rate and international raw material's price. Accordingly escalation system for specified materials, as an exceptional mode, should be introduced. As a method to calculate the fluctuation rate, ARCA(adjustment rate for the categories of articles) is more desirable than ARI(adjustment rate for an index), because the ARCA can be more reflected the characteristics of each construction work.To rationalize the ARI method, it is needed to announce the wage index, material index and machinery expense index via detailed classification by construction types. Also, it is desirable to prescribe the bidding date as a starting date of the price change, rather than contact signing date. considering the price change can happen since the biddiilg stage.

A Economic Impact of Golf Industry Deregulation on Tourism (골프산업 규제완화가 관광에 미치는 파급효과)

  • Kim, Heumg-Sik;Park, Koo-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 2009
  • This study examines the competitiveness of Korean golf industry and forecasts the demand for golf tourism to diminish the deficit of tourism revenue through revitalizing domestic market for golf. A comparative investigation of the golf expenses shows that the price competitiveness of golf fee and equipments is significantly lower than the competing destinations. For instance, a price of golf tourism package in South east Asian countries, that includes accommodation for three nights and a round-trip airfare, is even lower than the price of three sets of rounding during the weekend in Korea. Plus, the economic impacts analysis shows that if the current regulations regarding domestic golf industry are to be maintained, the competitiveness of Korean golf industry is likely to get worse due to an excessive tax burden, which may result in the increased deficit of tourism revenue. It is expected that the enhanced competitiveness of Korean golf industry will help overcome the current economic crisis of Korea.

전기자동차 개발

  • 임성기
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 1992
  • 내연기관의 가솔린자동차보다 역사가 오래된 전기자동차는 상대적으로 주생성능과 가격 경쟁력의 열세로 그 자취를 감추었고 최근까지 주로 특수목적의 단거리 저속차량으로 사용되고 있다. 그러나 1890년대 후반부터 전세계가 자동차배기가스에 의한 대기오염과 지구온난화 현상등의 문제를 심각하게 공감하게 되었고 마침내 미국 캘리포니아주에서는 전가자동차의 강제판매를 규정화하게 이르렀다. 이 규정에 의하면 1998년도부터 차량 판매대수의 2%를 전기자동차 판매로 강제요구하고 있다. 이 비율은 2000녀도에 5% 2003년에는 10%로 늘어날 계획이다. 따라서 미국에 많은 자동차를 수출하고 있는 일본, 독일 및 여러 유럽국가에서는 이 사업에 막대한 자금을 투자하며 개발에 몰두하고 있다. 미국의 Big3도 에너지성의 도움으로 최근 USABC를 결성하여 전기자동차 개발에 박차를 가하고 있다. 지금까지 기존의 가솔린자동차 기술에 있어서 일본과 독일에 상대적 열세에 있었던 미국도 이번 캘리포니아주의 전기자동차 강제판매 규정에 따른 전기자동차 사업으로 미국자동차 시장의 새로운 판도를 조성하겠다는 의도인듯하다. 국내에서도 정부가 이 사업의 중요성을 심각히 인식하고 G7사업과제의 하나로 선정하여 산, 학, 연 각층의 전문가가 참여하여 성공적으로 개발을 마칠 수 있도록 적극 지원하고 있다. 지금까지의 평균주행성능을 보면 최고속도 100-120km/h, 일층전 최대주행거리 150-200km 정도이며, 아직 양산체제에 돌입하지 않았기 때문에 가격면에서 경쟁력이 없는 실정이다. 그러나 1990년도에 들면서 각종 요소부품들의 기술수준이 급성장을 이루어서 앞으로 10년정도 후면 성능과 가격면에서 가솔린자동차와 대등한 수준의 전기자동차 개발이 실현될 수 있으리라 예측된다.는 영향받지 않았다. Clonidine의 심박수 감소작용은 .뇌실내및 정맥내 diltiazem이나 nifedipine 처리후에 감약되었다. 5). 뇌실내 clonidine$(30{\mu}g)$ 처 리후 뇌실내 diltiazem$(400{\mu}g)$과 nifedipine$(350{\mu}g)$의 혈압하강및 심박수 감소효과는 영향 받지 않고 그대로 나타났다. 이상의 결과로 diltiazem과 nifedipine은 가토뇌내에서 methoxamine에 의한 혈압상승의 작용점인 alrfia-1 adrenoceptor의 흥분에는 영향을 미치지 못하나 clonidine의 작용점인 alpha-2 adrenoceptor의 흥분에 의한 혈압하강및 심박수 감소효과는 억제한다고 추론하였다.thin 함량은 110.6 mg/L로서 산업적인 생산성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이번 연구를 통하여 개발된 변이주 B76 및 이의 대량 발효를 위한 최종조건의 정립은 향후 astaxanthin의 산업적 생산공정에 필요한 기초자료로 이용될 것으로 기대된다.색총말내에 소형의 도형, 소형의 장형 연접소포 및 DENSE CORE VESICLE의 3가지 연접소포를 가지고 있었고 출현빈도수는 촉각엽에서 가장 큰 33%이었다. 제5형 신경연접은 축색종말내에 중등도크기의 원형, 대형의 원형연접소포 및 DENSE CORE VESICLE을 포함하였고 13%의 출현빈도수로 관찰되었다. 배추횐나비의 촉각에 있는 지각신경세포가 뇌의 촉각엽으로 뻗어 들어가 위의 5가지 신경연접중 어느 형을 형성하는지를 관찰하기 위하여 좌측 촉각의 기부를 제거하여 지각신경세포를 절단하였는데 그 결과, 좌측 촉각엽에서 제4형의 신경연접이 퇴행성 변화를 나타내었다.

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Least Cost and Optimum Mixing Programming by Yulmu Mixture Noddle (율무국수를 이용한 최소가격/최적배합 프로그래밍)

  • Kim, Sang-Soo;Kim, Byung-Yong;Hahm, Young-Tae;Shin, Dong-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.385-390
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    • 1999
  • Noodle was made using a combination of yulmu, wheat and water through mixture design. Statistical models of yulmu noodle were shown by analysing tensile stress and color $(L^{*})$, and sensory evaluation with other constraints. Analysing the linear and non-linear model, the linearity in the values of tensile stress, lightness $(L^{*})$ and sensory evaluation showed that each component worked separately without interactions. In studying the component effect on the response by trace plot, the result indicated that the increase in the amount of yulmu enhanced tensile stress of noodle while degrading $L^{*}$ value and sensory evaluation score. In the range of satisfying the conditions of noodle in every tensile stress, $L^{*}$ value and sensory evaluation point, the optimum mixture ratio of yulmu : wheat : water was 2.27% : 66.28% : 28.45% based on least cost linear programming. In this calculation, the least cost was 9.924 and estimated potential results of the response for tensile stress was 2.234 N and those for $L^{*}$ was 82.39. Finally, the potential response results affected by mixture ratio of yulmu, wheat and water were screened using Excel.

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A Study on the IPTV Usage and Service Satisfaction (IPTV 수용자의 이용행태와 서비스 만족도에 대한 연구)

  • Seol, Jin-Ah;Bong, Mi-Sun
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.46
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    • pp.485-510
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    • 2009
  • Since the inception of Internet Protocol TV's real-time service on January, 2009, technological challenges and lack of content diversity of IPTV have been cited as problem areas. While past researches focused on IPTV's technological, industrial and policy facets, this research surveyed the viewers' viewing and usage patterns, and the level of service satisfaction among actual audiences of MegaTV, SKBroadband, and LGTV since January. The results show that subscription fee and content types were the two dominant determinants in audience's choice of a particular IPTV company. The high users of IPTV were on average aged between 30-39, and women tended to be heavier users than men. The surveyed audience also regarded IPTV to be more similar to the Internet than any other medium such as Cable TV and Satellite TV. IPTV audience cited 'lifestyle service' and 'additional service' offerings to be highly relevant to their usage and satisfaction; interactive service and educational service also showed high correlation to usage and satisfaction. The most watched contents on IPTV were domestic TV series, followed by foreign movies and variety shows. 'Fees for additional features,' 'lack of real-time terrestrial TV service', and 'lack of content variety' were the major areas of concern for IPTV viewers. They answered that the monthly fee was the most important factor in the selection of IPTV. Use of pay-per-view contents and add-on interactive service fees were also seen as problematic. With regards to future usage, the IPTV audience revealed that they were very sensitive and reluctant to pay for additional services. While existing researches concentrated on IPTV's technological problems and lack of content diversity, this study illuminated the more pragmatical side of the viewers, namely, the importance of price in audience's selection of an IPTV service provider. From these results, it is recommended that, before doing anything else, the service providers try to meet the audience's expected price points in order to garner the full potential of IPTV and the attendant mass audience.

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Analysis of Consumer Behavior toward and Preferences for Prunus mume (Maesil), the Chinese Plum (매실에 대한 소비자 선호 및 소비행태분석)

  • Baek, Jong-Hi;Choi, Jeong-Im
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.571-580
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    • 2010
  • We sought to define the main motivational factors promoting consumption of Prunus mume products. We surveyed both specialized high-volume consumers and public consumers, and focused on consumption of and preferences for Prunus mume and Prunus mume products. We investigated how products were preferentially consumed, purchase experience, purchase location, purchase price, consumption experience, factors important in a purchase decision, preference factors, dissatisfaction factors, consumption outlook, comments on new processed foods, and activation of consumption. A total of 534 responses were received and data were analyzed using the SAS program (Version 9.1) of the Frequency test; Chi-square test was used to detect significant factors. A greater percentage of high-volume(compared with low-volume) consumers processed personal products at home. The public consumer tended to buy commercial products. However, public consumers who were older, who had higher incomes, and who were heads of households, tended to both buy commercial products and to prepare foods at home. The common purchase methods used by high-volume consumers were internet and direct marketing, but the public consumer frequented department stores and hypermarkets. High-volume consumers observed that commercial products were expensive, and such consumers seemed to be particularly cost-sensitive. The decisive factor triggering purchase decisions in high-volume consumers was the geographical origin of the fruit, whereas the public consumer was more concerned with taste. In public, positive factors were that the product was good for health and had a pleasant taste. Some of those surveyed complained of a lack of variety in Prunus mume products and that the amount of Prunus mume in certain products was low. To promote and increase consumption, convenient-to-eat products with healthy images are needed.

A Study on the Influences of Korean Consumer Characteristics and Propensity to Purchase in Brand Choice (한국소비자 특성과 구매성향이 브랜드 선택에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyung-Suk;Kim, Chur
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.321-339
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study to the analyze characteristics and purchasing activities of consumers by using the Multinomial Logit model, which is a well-known discrete selection model to explain and forecast consumers' selection activities(patterns). The study aims to determine the state of competition between National Brand and Private Band and how some demographic characters and marketing variables influence consumers' brand selections within the facial tissue market. Our analysis process includes reorganization of panel data(individuals' purchasing record at each point) to fit the purpose of our study as well as analysis of probability and influencing factors of consumers' brand selection at each point of purchases. The result showed that consumers at higher age and with higher income hold better probability to purchase National Brand. Likewise, locations also had considerable effect on selecting brand, and Private Brand was preferred in department store and discount stores. On the other hand, consumers loyal to National Brand reported higher probability to purchase if the product prices were higher while Private Brand buyers were more promoted the purchase under price discount.

Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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Market expectations of future progressive lenses through comparison of general progressive lenses and free-form progressive lenses (일반 누진다초점렌즈와 프리폼 누진다초점렌즈의 비교를 통한 향후 누진다초점렌즈 시장의 예측)

  • Lee, Jeung-Young;Park, Jeong-Sik;Jang, Woo-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korea society of information convergence
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.57-60
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, We compared middle-aged wearer's satisfaction of progressive multifocal lens and free-form progressive multifocal lens wearers, and investigate the direction of improvement of progressive multifocal lens. We tried to predict the development direction of progressive lenses in the future. The results of the survey, satisfaction of free-form progressive multifocal lens wearers was high, compared to normal progressive lenses. The price of free-form progressive multifocal lens is expensive compared to the nomal progressive multifocal lens, but provides a wide view than nomal progressive lenses. It was confirmed that there is sufficient merit. because it can be made in individual customized to the wearer. In the near future, It is expected that free-form progressive multifocal lenses is the most popular progressive multifocal lenses to middle-aged wearers.

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