• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.391-404
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• 2021

This study developed a long-term prediction model for the potential yield of garlic based on a genetic algorithm (GA) by utilizing global climate reanalysis data. The GA is used for digging the inherent signals from global climate reanalysis data which are both directly and indirectly connected with the garlic yield potential. Our results indicate that both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts reasonably capture the inter-annual variability of crop yields with temporal correlation coefficients significant at 99% confidence level and superior categorical forecast skill with a hit rate of 93.3% for 2 × 2 and 73.3% for 3 × 3 contingency tables. Furthermore, the GA method, which considers linear and non-linear relationships between predictors and predictands, shows superiority of forecast skill in terms of both stability and skill scores compared with linear method. Since our result can predict the potential yield before the start of farming, it is expected to help establish a long-term plan to stabilize the demand and price of agricultural products and prepare countermeasures for possible problems in advance.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.887-896
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• 2015

This study estimates future AADT using historical AADT and socio-economic factors in isolated area. Multiple linear regression method by socio-economic factors are lower MAPE and higher R-square than using historical AADT. Analysis of socio-economic factors influence AADT in isolated typical areas, varied socio-economic factors influence on AADT. In isolated coastal areas, oil price influence on AADT. AADT forecasting model in isolated area is excellent when analysising $R^2$ and MAPE. It is assume that estimation of AADT in isolated area using multiple linear regression is accurate because of a little passed traffic volume and traffic volume fluctuation.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.135-159
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• 2020

This paper analyzes and compares the effects of various government subsidies to improve labor productivity. Laborers are differentiated in learning ability, and duopsonists in the labor market sequentially determine the quality levels and wages of employed laborers in a two-stage noncooperative game under perfect information. If a subsidy is given to the advanced firm in quality and productivity of labor, that firm will prefer to intensify wage competition due to strengthening its competitiveness in the labor market, and attempt to lower its quality in order to reduce the degree of differentiation in quality. At that time, the other firm wants to avoid competition because of its weakened competitiveness, and may have an incentive to lower the quality level to expand the differentiation. If the government subsidizes low-quality and low-productivity firm, it is motivated to increase its quality level to reduce differentiation due to the strengthening of competitiveness, and its competitor has an incentive to improve the quality to expand the differentiation. And there is no significant difference in whether payments are made to laborers or firms.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.44 no.12
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• pp.1258-1268
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• 2017

Capturing real-time daily information on food prices is invaluable to help policymakers and development organizations address food security problems and improve public welfare. This study analyses the possible use of large-scale online data, available due to growing Internet connectivity in developing countries, to provide updates on food security landscape. We conduct a case study of Indonesia to develop a time-series prediction model that nowcasts daily food prices for four types of food commodities that are essential in the region: beef, chicken, onion and chilli. By using Twitter price quotes, we demonstrate the capability of social data to function as an affordable and efficient proxy for traditional offline price statistics.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.29-52
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• 2012

During the global financial turmoil in 2007-2008, deviation from the covered interest parity (CIP) between the Korean won and US dollar through the foreign exchange swap has escalated in its magnitude beyond 1,000bp in November 2008, and it still persists around 100bp level. In this paper, we examine a newly developed margin based asset pricing model using Kalman filter approach and show that the escalation of the CIP deviation is found to be significantly related to the global dollar funding illiquidity and country-specific funding conditions. Furthermore, we find evidence that the poor funding conditions (or higher margins) are driven by the general money market illiquidity and may lead to higher funding illiquidity, which suggests the reinforcing effects of the liquidity spiral. We also show that the supply of dollar liquidity and improved funding conditions help alleviate the deviations from the parity, however the persistent anomaly is found to be related to the high level of volatility in the FX swap market.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.303-317
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• 1993

Banz(1981)와 Reinganum(1981)에 의한 실증연구에 의한 소기업과 대기업간의 수익률차이는 자본자산가격결정모형(CAPM)에 의하여 설명될 수가 없는 결과 즉, 과거의 체계적 위험과 기업규모를 기준으로 보면 도구변수(instrumental variable)인 기업규모는 추정된 CAPM의 베타에 대하여 통제한 연후에도 포트플리오간의 평균수익률에 대하여 통계적으로 유의적인 설명력을 가진다는 것이다 이것은 주식의 위험조정후수익률(risk-adjusted return)이 기업규모와 부(負)의 관계에 있다는 것으로서, CAPM으로서는 설명되지 않는 이상(異常)수익률 현상이다. Banz와 Reinganum 이후 미국학계에서 그동안 수많은 연구들이 규모효과에 대한 설명을 시도하였으나 아직도 완전한 설명은 존재하지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라 주식시장에서의 규모효과 존재여부에 관한 기존의 몇몇 연구들이 갖고 있는 방법론상의 문제점들을 제거함으로써 규모효과의 존재여부를 새로이 검증하였다. 특히, 동일가중지수수익률(equal-weighted index return)은 효율적 포트폴리오수익률이 나 종합주가지수수익률은 비효율적 포트폴리오수익률이라는 황선웅 이일균(1991)의 연구 결과를 고려하여, 시장수익률 대용치로서 종합주가지수수익률을 사용할 경우 규모효과의 검증결과가 어떠한 영향을 받는지도 아울러 분석하였다. 1980-90년의 기간을 대상으로 하여 실증분석한 결과, 먼저 동일가중지수수익률을 시장수익률로 사용할 경우 체계적위험 추정치와 기업규모간에는 부(負)의 관계가 존재하고 있음이 관측되고 있으며, 기업규모포트폴리오의 초과수익률 추정치도 대형주는 물론 소형주의 경우에도 통계적으로 유의하게 영(零)과 다르지 않다. 그 결과 최소한 1980-90년의 경우 우리나라 주식시장에는 규모효과가 존재하였다는 실증적 증거가 발견되지 않는다. 그러나 종합주가 지수수익률을 시장수익률로 사용하면 소형주에 대한 체계적위험이 대형주의 경우보다 오히려 작게 나타나고 있으며, 그에 따라 통제적으로 유의한 규모효과가 존재하는 것처럼 나타나고 있어 종합주가지수수익률은 시장수익률 대용치로 적절하지 않음을 제안하고 있다.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.73-82
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• 2006

Supply chain management (SCM) has been regarded as one of the most critical issues in the current business environment. Moreover, supply chain partnerships between suppliers and buyers in SCM have had a significant impact on supply chain performance. In this paper, we conduct a quantitative analysis for supplier-buyer's profit sharing and pricing policies based on supply chain partnerships. For this purpose, we assume that a two echelon supply chain with a single supplier and a single buyer is given and the buyer faces deterministic demand which is not only a function of buyer's selling price, but also strictly decreasing, concave, and twice differentiable function. Then we will prove the following. Firstly, without supply chain partnerships, there exist supplier and buyer's selling prices per unit such that their total profits are maximized, under the assumption that buyer's order quantity is exactly equal to the demand buyer faced. Secondly, buyer's selling price per unit which maximizes supply chain's total profit with supply chain partnerships is lower than buyer's selling price per unit which maximizes buyer's total profit without supply chain partnerships. Thirdly, given supplier's selling price per unit. buyer's total profit without supply chain part nerships is greater than that with supply chain partnerships, whereas the opposite case happens for supplier's total profit. Finally, there exists supplier's selling price per unit which makes the maximum total profits for both supplier and buyer with supply chain partnerships greater than those obtained for any given supplier's selling price per unit without supply chain partnerships.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.61-93
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• 2014

This paper analyzes Onbid car auction data by employing various methods, including structural estimation, to identify main factors which decides auction prices and figure out what effects those factors are making on the auction price. I then discuss on how to maximize sellers' revenue in OnBid car auctions. The government and public institutes sell their assets through the OnBid auction, hence the optimal design of the OnBid auction is important. The paper's main findings are as follows: (ⅰ) The independent private value model explains OnBid car auction data better than the correlated private value model or the interdependent value model; (ⅱ) Both the number of bidders and the ratios of the auction price to the evaluation value were lower in the auctions posted by the Kamco than auctions by institutes other than the Kamco; (ⅲ) Some auctions require that at least two bidders should submit a bid no less than the reserve price for sale. In those auctions, both the number of bidders and each bidder's valuation on the auctioned object were lower than in auctions without that requirement; (ⅳ) The sum of sellers' revenue would be decreased in the simulation with the reserve price higher by 5%, 10%, and 20% across auctions by institutes other than Kamco.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.161-167
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• 2015

Consumer satisfaction is decided by how to provide some information for consumer. Therefore the information qualities such as product and service are very important to retain consumers who have continuously purchasing state of mind. This research confirm the effectiveness of consumer satisfaction in means of information quality that social commerce provides. According to the result of analysis, all aspects of information quality(product information quality, service information quality and social information quality) except price information quality were found to be significantly related to the customer satisfaction. In conclusion, to understand China consumers who purchase through social commerce, this research study the method of how to improve the satisfaction of social commerce in means of information quality.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.135-155
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• 2012

The objective of this study was to empirically analyze how Chinese urban residents use mortgage loan in their purchase of houses. For the research purpose, 205 households were surveyed on use of housing finance in Beijing, using prepared questionnaires in advance. The survey result showed that 39.5% of the respondents used mortgage loan in their housing purchase in Beijing. Most of the mortgage loan users got their loans from four state-owned commercial banks. This implies that the government could effectively govern the housing market by managing qualifications and interest rates under the government control. The households who did not use mortgage loan raised the fund mostly from own capital and their parents' money. In general, it was found that the Chinese, besides mortgage loan from commercial banks, rarely depend on outside sources. The dichotomous logistic analysis by logit model showed that socio-economic variables such as age, income, housing price and entry into the housing provident fund had significantly positive effects on the use of mortgage loan in the purchase of housing.