Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.25 no.2
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- pp.39-55
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- 2019
Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.
Extracts and fractions of Anemarrhena asphodeloides Bunge were prepared and their physiological activities and components were analyzed. Antimicrobial activities of the ethyl acetate and aglycone fractions were
Purpose: The purpose is to clarify the effect of additional scattering ratio on the edge of the block according to the increasing block thickness with low melting point lead alloy and pure lead in electron beam therapy. Methods and materials:
Experiments and investigations were done basically and practically for the purpose of labor saving in paddy rice cultivation especially on Homizil i.e. hoeing and herbicide, 1969. 8 concrete tanks were established on the open base of Keon Kuk University for comparison of percolation, dissolved oxygen and yield test of rice in the paddy plot of tank. The dimension of the bottom of each tank is square meter. Each of the 4 of the 8 tanks is 21cm in height and each of the remaining 4 tanks is 36cm. Each tank has a system that comprises 2 sets of tubes, each of which has 20 holes of 5mm in diameter scattered every side and is covered with nylon cloth taking water in the tank. One set consists of 4 P.V.C tubes. The first set is situated 8cm below the top of the tank and the second set is located at bottom layer inside the tank. The 4 tubes of each set are combined together and led to the glass tube which protects from inside to outside. And this inside-outside glass tube is connected to the small rubber tube. Also a glass tube is set 4cm below the top of the tank. Paddy loam was filled on sand in each of the tanks in the soil depth of either 15cm or 30cm. The depth of sand was 5cm in the soil depth of 15cm and 10cm in the soil depth of 30cm. (Fig. 1, 2 and 3). The paddy rice was grown in the tank. The percolation of water, the dissolved oxygen and the yield of rice were observed in the tank. And the dissolved oxygen was detected by Winkler method. A sandy paddy field of heavy percolation was selected at the field of the National Agricultural Material Inspection Center in Seoul. It was divided into 9 plots. These plots were given 3 treatments: (A) not hoeing, (B) hoeing one time and (C) hoeing two times. These treatments were replicated 3 times along the latin square design. The paddy rice was grown and sprayed with Stam F-34 in the all plots for the purpose of killing weeds before hoeing. The two types of paddy of field i.e. one for normal percolation and the other for ill drainage were selected at Iri Crop Experiment Station, Jeonla-Bukdo. Each field was divided into 24 plots for 8 treatments. They are: (A) not hoeing; (B) hoeing one time; (C) hoeing two times; (D) not hoeing but treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (E) hoeing one time and weeding two times also treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (F) hoeing two times and weeding one time a], o treating with herbicide, Pamcon; (G) hoeing two times and weeding two times also treating with herbicide, Pamcon, ; (H) usual manner. The labor hours and expenses needed for weeding in the paddy by hoeing were investigated in a farmer at Suwon and the price of herbicide and the yield of rice were taken out at Iri, Jeonla-Bukdo. The results obtained from the above experiments and investigations are as follows: 1. The relationship between percolation and dissolved oxygen shows that a very small amount of oxygen is detected in the soil water under 2cm below surface of earth in the paddy even when percolation is over 4.0cm per 24 hours (Tab. 1). 2. The relationship between percolation and yield of rice shows that the yield of rice increases in the percolation of 0cm and 1.5cm per 24 hours and decreases in the percolation of 2.5cm and 3.4cm in the plot of the 15cm ploughing depth and increases in the percolation of 1.4cm and 3.0cm and decreases in the percolation of 0cm and 4.0cm in the plot of 30cm ploughing depth (Tab. 1 and Fig. 5). 3. The yield of paddy weeded with Stam F-34 in the sandy field of heavy percolation in Seoul was 3.02 tons in the plot of not hoeing, 2.99 tons in hoeing one time and 3.05 tons in hoeing two times per hectare (Tab. 5). 4.1). 4. 1) The yield of rice per 10 ares in the field of normal percolation at Iri was 338kg in not hoeing, 379kg in hoeing one time, 383kg in hoeing two times, 413kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and not hoeing, 433kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing one time and weeding two times, 399kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding one time, 420kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding two times and 418kg in usual manner (Tab. 6-1). 2) The yield of rice per 10 ares in the field of ill drainage at Iri was 323kg in not hoeing, 363kg in hoeing one time, 342kg in hoeing two times, 388kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and not hoeing, 425kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing one time and weeding two times, 427kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding one time, 449kg in spraying herbicide, Pamcon, and hoeing two times and weeding two times and 412kg in usual manner (Tab. 6-2). 5. 1) The labor hours for weeding by hoeing was 37.1 hours but 53.5 hours if hours for meal, smoking and so on are included, and the expenses including labor cost needed for weeding by hoeing in the paddy rice was 2, 346 Won per 10 ares at Suwon (Tab. 7). 2) The labor hours for weeding by spraying herbicide with hand sprayer in the paddy rice was about 5 hours per 10 ares at Suwon and the expenses for weeding by spraying herbicide in the paddy rice was 750 Won but 1130 Won if the loss by decrement of rice in the paddy field of ill drainage per 10 ares is calculated in estimation at Iri (Tab. 8). From these observations and investigations it is known that using of some kinds of herbicides Saves labor and expenses of weeding, almost without giving damages to the rice itself, in the field of normal or heavy percolation comparing usual manner of hoeing.
The pharmacological and microbiological studies of Cefoperazone (T-1551, Toyama Chemical Co., Japan) were conducted in vitro and in vivo. The studies included stability and physicochemical characteristics, antimicrobial activity, animal and human pharmacokinetics, animal pharmacodynamics and safety evaluation of Cefoperazone sodium for injection. 1) Stability and physicochemical characteristics. Sodium salt of cefoperazone for injection had a general appearance of white crystalline powder which contained 0.5% water, and of which melting point was
Price promotion typically reduces the price for a given quantity or increases the quantity available at the same price, thereby enhancing value and creating an economic incentive to purchase. It often is used to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important to understand the effects of price promotions on quality perception made by consumer who do not have prior experience with the promoted brand. However, if consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior brand quality, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. More specifically, low qualitative perception through price promotion will undercut the economic and psychological incentives and reduce the likelihood of purchase. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. Previous literatures on the effects of price promotions on quality perception reveal inconsistent explanations. Some focused on the unfavorable effect of price promotion on consumer's perception. But others showed that price promotions didn't raise unfavorable perception on the brand. Prior researches found these inconsistent results related to the timing of the price promotion's exposure and quality evaluation relative to trial. And, whether the consumer has been experienced with the product promotions in the past or not may moderate the effects. A few studies considered differences among product categories as fundamental factors. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of price promotional informations on consumer's unfavorable quality perception under the different conditions. The author controlled the timing of the promotional exposure and varied past promotional patterns and information presenting patterns. Unlike previous researches, the author examined the effects of price promotions setting limit to pretrial situation by controlling potentially moderating effects of prior personal experience with the brand. This manipulations enable to resolve possible controversies in relation to this issue. And this manipulation is meaningful for the work sector. Price promotion is not only used to target existing consumers but also to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. If consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior quality about unused brand, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. In addition, if the price promotion ends, the consumer that have purchased that certain brand will likely to display sharply decreased repurchasing behavior. Through a literature review, hypothesis 1 was set as follows to investigate the adjustive effect of past price promotion on quality perception made by consumers; The influence that price promotion of unused brand have on quality perception made by consumers will be adjusted by past price promotion activity of the brand. In other words, a price promotion of an unused brand that have not done a price promotion in the past will have a unfavorable effect on quality perception made by consumer. Hypothesis 2-1 was set as follows : When an unused brand undertakes price promotion for the first time, the information presenting pattern of price promotion will have an effect on the consumer's attribution for the cause of the price promotion. Hypothesis 2-2 was set as follows : The more consumer dispositionally attribute the cause of price promotion, the more unfavorable the quality perception made by consumer will be. Through test 1, the subjects were given a brief explanation of the product and the brand before they were provided with a
The physiological and biochemical role of potassium for upland crops according to recent research reports and the nutritional status of potassium in Korea were reviewed. Since physical and chemical characteristics of potassium ion are different from those of sodium, potassium can not completely be replaced by sodium and replacement must be limited to minimum possible functional area. Specific roles of potassium seem to keep fine structure of biological membranes such as thylacoid membrane of chloroplast in the most efficient form and to be allosteric effector and conformation controller of various enzymes principally in carbohydrate and protein metabolism. Potassium is essential to improve the efficiency of phoro- and oxidative- phosphorylation and involve deeply in all energy required metabolisms especially synthesis of organic matter and their translocation. Potassium has many important, physiological functions such as maintenance of osmotic pressure and optimum hydration of cell colloids, consequently uptake and translocation of water resulting in higher water use efficiency and of better subcellular environment for various physiological and biochemical activities. Potassium affects uptake and translocation of mineral nutrients and quality of products. potassium itself in products may become a quality criteria due to potassium essentiality for human beings. Potassium uptake is greatly decreased by low temperature and controlled by unknown feed back mechanism of potassium in plants. Thus the luxury absorption should be reconsidered. Total potassium content of upland soil in Korea is about 3% but the exchangeable one is about 0.3 me/100g soil. All upland crops require much potassium probably due to freezing and cold weather and also due to wet damage and drought caused by uneven rainfall pattern. In barley, potassium should be high at just before freezing and just after thawing and move into grain from heading for higher yield. Use efficiency of potassium was 27% for barley and 58% in old uplands, 46% in newly opened hilly lands for soybean. Soybean plant showed potassium deficiency symptom in various fields especially in newly opened hilly lands. Potassium criteria for normal growth appear 2%
According to Soil Taxonomy which has been developed over the past 20 years in the soil conservation service of the U. S. D. A, Soils in Korea are classified. This system is well suited for the classification of the most of soils. But paddy field soils have some difficulties in classification because Soil Taxonomy states no proposals have yet been developed for classifying artificially irrigated soils. This paper discusses some problems in the application of Taxonomy and suggestes the classification of paddy field soils in Korea. Following is the summary of the paper. 1. Anthro aquic, Aquic Udipsamments : The top soils of these soils are saturated with irrigated water at some time of year and have mottles of low chroma(2 or less) more than 50cm of the soil surface. (Ex. Sadu, Geumcheon series) 2. Anthroaquic Udipsamments : These sails are like Anthroaquic, Aquic Udipsamments except for the mottles of low chroma within 50cm of the soil surface. (Ex. Baegsu series) 3. Halic Psammaquents : These soils contain enough salts as distributed in the profile that they interfere with the growth of most crop plants and located on the coastal dunes. The water table fluctuates with the tides. (Ex. Nagcheon series) 4. Anthroaquic, Aquic Udifluvents : They have some mottles that have chroma of 2 or less in more than 50cm of the surface. The upper horizon is saturated with irrigated water at sometime. (Ex. Maryeong series) 5. Anthro aquic Udifluvents : These soils are saturated with irrigated water at some time of year and have mottles of low chroma(2 or less) within 50cm of the surface soils. (Ex. Haenggog series) 6. Fluventic Haplaquepts : These soils have a content of organic carbon that decreases irregularly with depth and do not have an argillic horizon in any part of the pedon. Since ground water occur on the surface or near the surface, they are dominantly gray soils in a thick mineral regolith. (Ex Baeggu, Hagseong series) 7. Fluventic Thapto-Histic Haplaquepts : These soils have a buried organic matter layer and the upper boundary is within 1m of the surface. Other properties are same as Fluventic Haplaquepts. (Ex. Gongdeog, Seotan series) 8. Fluventic Aeric Haplaquepts : These soils have a horizon that has chroma too high for Fluventic Haplaquepts. The higher chroma is thought to indicate either a shorter period of saturation of the whole soils with water or some what deeper ground water than in the Fluventic Haplaquepts. The correlation of color with soil drainage classes is imperfect. (Ex. Mangyeong, Jeonbug series) 9. Fluventic Thapto-Histic Aeric Haplaquepts : These soils are similar to Fluventic Thapto Histic Haplaquepts except for the deeper ground water. (Ex. Bongnam series) 10. Fluventic Aeric Sulfic Haplaquepts : These soils are similar to Fluventic Aeric Haplaquepts except for the yellow mottles and low pH (<4.0) in some part between 50 and 150cm of the surface. (Ex. Deunggu series) 11. Fluventic Sulfaquepts : These soils are extremely acid and toxic to most plant. Their horizons are mostly dark gray and have yellow mottles of iron sulfate with in 50cm of the soil surface. They occur mainly in coastal marshes near the mouth of rivers. (Ex. Bongrim, Haecheog series) 12. Fluventic Aeric Sulfaquepts : They have a horizon that has chroma too high for Fluventic Sulfaquepts. Other properties are same as Fluventic Sulfaquepts. (Ex. Gimhae series) 13. Anthroaquic Fluvaquentic Eutrochrepts : These soils have mottles of low chroma in more than 50cm of the surface due to irrigated water. The base saturation is 60 percent or more in some subhroizon that is between depth of 25 and 75cm below the surface. (Ex. Jangyu, Chilgog series) 14. Anthroaquic Dystric Fluventic Eutrochrepts : These soils are similar to Anthroaquic Fluvaquentic Eutrochrepts except for the low chroma within 50cm of the surface. (Ex. Weolgog, Gyeongsan series) 15. Anthroaquic Fluventic Dystrochrepts : These soils have mottles that have chroma of 2 or less within 50cm of the soil surface due to artificial irrigation. They have lower base saturation (<60 percert) in all subhorizons between depths of 25 and 75cm below the soil surface. (Ex. Gocheon, Bigog series) 16. Anthro aquic Eutrandepts : These soils are similar to Anthroaquic Dystric Fluventic Eutrochrepts except for lower bulk density in the horizon. (Ex. Daejeong series) 17. Anthroaquic Hapludalfs : These soils' have a surface that is saturated with irrigated water at some time and have chroma of 2 or less in the matrix and higher chroma of mottles within 50cm of the surface. (Ex. Hwadong, Yongsu series) 18. Anthro aquic, Aquic Hapludalfs : These soils are similar to Anthro aquic Hapludalfs except for the matrix that has chroma 2 or less and higher chroma of mottles in more than 50cm of the surface. (Ex. Geugrag, Deogpyeong se ries)
The purposes of this thesis are to clarify experimentally the variation of ground water temperature in tube wells during the irrigation period of paddy rice, and the effect of ground water irrigation on the growth, grain yield and yield components of the rice plant, and, furthermore, when and why the plant is most liable to be damaged by ground water, and also to find out the effective ground water irrigation methods. The results obtained in this experiment are as follows; 1. The temperature of ground water in tube wells varies according to the location, year, and the depth of the well. The average temperatures of ground water in a tubewells, 6.3m, 8.0m deep are
Eighty dairy farms in Palmers ton North area in New Zealand were surveyed on 1) general characteristics (10 Questions), 2) milk yield and feed supplementary (7 questions), 3) reproductive efficiencies (12 questions) and 4) reproductive disorders (12 questions) by mail questions from February to July, 1998. Among those 4 items from 38 dairy farms (47.5%), especially in items 1) and 2), overall dairy farming situation, supplementary feeding and milk yields were surveyed and analyzed for Korean dairy farmers (especially in Cheju island) to have better understanding or higher economical gains. The results were as follows. 1. In dairy experience, 21 (45%) among 38 dairy farms surveyed were answered that farming less than 15 years, 15~19 year, 20~25 years and over 26 years experience were 3 (7.9%), 7 (18.4%), 6 (15.8%) and 5 (13.2%) which generally showed longer experience compare to Korean dairy farming situation. In survey of labour input and business goal of dairy farming, self-managing farms, sharemilkers, unpaid family manpowering farms, manager running farms, farms with hired worker, farms with part time helper and other type was 21 (55.3%), 10 (26.3%), 2 (3.5%), 3 (5.3%), 18 (31.6%), 2 (3.5%), and 1 (1.8%), respectively. 2. Analyzing pasture and tillable land, pasture according to feeding scale (200, 300 and 400 heads) were 56, 90 and 165.3 ha, and tillable lands were 51, 78 and 165 ha which showed some differences among feeding scale. In recording methods in 38 farms replied, 36 (95%) dairy handbook and 23 (70%) dual methods taking farms were higher than that of 10 (26.3%) computer and 15(39.5%) well-recorder methods. 3. Dairy waste processing facilities in environmental field were almost perfect except of metropolitan area, and so no problem was developed in its control so far. Hence, 26 farm (68.4%) of pond system was higher rather than those in 8 (21.2%) of using as organic manure after storing feces of dairy cattle, 1(2.6%) bunker system and 3 (7.9%) other type farms. 4. In milking facilities, 33 farms (86.9%) of Harringbone types were higher than those in 3 (7.9%) of Walkthrough types, 1 (2.6%) of Rotary system and other types. Although the construction facilities was not enough, this system show the world-leveled dairy country to attempted to elevate economic gains using the advantage of climatic condition. 5. In milking day and yearly yield per head, average 275 milking days and 87 drying days were longer than that of 228 average milking days in New Zealand. Annual total milk yield per head and milk solid (ms) was 3,990 kg and approximately 319 kg. Dairy milk solid (ms) per head, milk yield, fat percentage was 1.2 kg, 15.5 kg and average 4.83% which was much higher than in other country, and milk protein was average 3.75%. 6. In coclusion, Palmerstone North has been a center of dairy farming in New Zealand for the last 21 years. Their dairy farming history is 6~9 year longer than ours and the average number of milking cows per farm is 355, which is much greater than that (35) of Korea. They do not have dairy barn, but only milking parlors. Cows are taken care of by family 0.5 persons), are on a planned calving schedule in spring (93%) and milked for 240~280 days a year, avoiding winter. Cows are dried according to milk yield and body condition score. This management system is quite different from that of Korean dairy farms. Cows are not fed concentrates, relying entirely on pasture forages and the average milk yield per cow is 3,500 kg, which is about 1/2 milk yield of Korean dairy farms. They were bred to produce high fat milk with an average of 4.5%. Their milk production cost is the lowest in the world and the country's economy relies heavily on milk production. We Korean farmers may try to increase farming size, decreasing labor and management costs.